저자: Mr.FIREDUpWealth · 외국인
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시장 매도세와 거시 리스크(인플레, 학자금 상환, Fitch 은행 등급 경고) 속에서 테슬라, 아마존, Indie Semiconductor 세 종목을 장기 매수 후보로 제시. 테슬라는 저가 모델 출시에도 마진 우려가 있으나 생태계 확장으로 5년 장기 투자 관점, 232달러 부근 분할매수·200달러 이하 적극 매수 구간 제시. 아마존은 AWS·광고 성장과 AI 촉매로 낙관, 125~130달러 지지 구간 언급. Indie는 매출 성장률 100%대 대비 낮은 P/S로 투기적 고확신 종목이며 6~7달러 이하 분할매수 제안.
다듬은 글
I'm back do you guys miss me I've got three stocks that I think are buys right now and lower of course the market right now we're in a little bit of a sell-off and there are a lot of macro risks a lot of geopolitical risks we've been talking about the last couple videos more headlines this morning consumer sentiment dips amid Rising inflation and student loan payments we've talked about how student loans coming back into play how that could impact the consumer 68 of GDP is consumer spending so to combat inflation the feds raising rates as rates go up mortgage rates go up mortgage payments are higher rent payments are higher student loan payments come back into play consumers have less money to spend less disposable income to spend and Fitch back in the news Fitch warns it may be forced to downgrade multiple Banks including JP Morgan all these things are going to impact sentiment you're also in a seasonally week period for the stock market you had a massive rally especially in technology the first half of the year and so what happens next well right now we're seeing some more pressure we're seeing some more selling so I've identified three stocks that I like right here especially for your long-term investor of course with any of these stocks they can go lower so I'm going to give you some price targets some price ranges to look for now the first stock is Tesla it's at 232.96 right now now it's down about 20 percent in the past month year to date it still has up 115 percent but over the past year it's still down 24 and this isn't a dirt cheap stock P Ray shows about a 66 this is 12 months trailing market cap is 729 billion of course this was a one trillion dollar market cap at one point and it will be back in that trillion dollar club with Time 52-week Low got down to 101.81 cents 52 week high 314.67.
so some recent news today Tesla launches cheaper Model S and X versions in the US with shorter ranges the new s and X standard range models are priced at 70 000 490 and 88 thousand four ninety respectively so this new model S has a range of up to 320 miles that's less than the current plaid variance of 405 miles and 396 miles respectively model X SUV has a range of up to 269 miles well below its more expensive versions that offer 348 miles so we've talked a lot about Tesla on this channel and we've talked about really how if you want to expand electric vehicles and make them really Nationwide in the U.S the US has to have more charging stations you need longer range Batteries Now with that said the vast majority of people live in cities and if you're buying a Tesla really to just drive to work you're not driving it cross-country you might not need that longer range now what I think is really interesting about this is you're getting the exact same car it's just that software locks it it basically has a governor on it so Tesla has confirmed that its new standard Range model S and X have the same battery pack as the long range version so you're still getting the same high quality product the software is just capping the mileage range which you may may not need this top comment here this is a great deal most of the time you're only supposed to fill your battery 80 to 90 percent people with the larger battery end up normally getting between 324 to 365 miles per charge of course they have the option of filling it to 100 but with this person's 2018 Model S we rarely fill it to 100 why not get ten thousand dollars off for using your battery the same way you normally would now of course the flip side of this when you look at it from an analyst perspective you're lowering the prices that's going to impact margins and margins as we talked about before in the channel that's really the primary differentiator when you think of Tesla versus its primary competition so it's always this push-pull Dynamic yeah you're lowering prices you might sell more cars but what about the margins that's your primary competitive advantage and I've talked about this before as well but you think of the Apple ecosystem you know you've got an iPhone you've got an iPad you got an iMac you've got Apple this apple that Apple carplay Tesla's really building an ecosystem as it sells more cars as it expands its charging Network as more competitors you use their charging Network as the standard as more products roll out like the Tesla cyber truck the semi truck and more Tesla's in the early Innings of building out an ecosystem and I think there's a long way to run so I'm thinking of this as a five-year type of investment long-term investment and of course you've got crazy price targets out there you've got Ron Baron you know saying it'll be a 1500 stock by 2030 and got Kathy Wood two thousand dollar stock by 2027.
now a lot of the reason that Arc is bullish on Tesla's Robo taxis we haven't really scratched the surface on that yet there's other Moon shots out there like you think Optimus the robot there's lots of opportunity longer term for this company so let's look at the valuation metrics for Tesla then also share a chart and I'll show you some some target areas where I'd be buying the stock now this first chart here is going to be your price to sales ratio it goes all the way back to 2020 and you can see this slightly higher than 2020 but it's a different company than it was three years ago you can see at the peak it got way up here you know 30 price to sales right now it's about 8.6 so now as low as we saw at the beginning of 2023 when it was closer to 100 a share but you know if you look historically it's still fairly attractive now that's not cheap by any means let's look at some other metrics so let's look at a forward price of sales ratio now it's a 5.74 the p e ratio this is a 12 months trailing 65.99 now if we look at the forward PE ratio this orange here it's 47.39 still not Dirt Cheap again you're looking at accumulating shares hopefully at cheaper prices and I'm going to show you some of those prices here on a chart in a second but holding this stock for five years now this is an interesting chart because it's showing you the revenue the TTM Revenue you can see this is ramped up all the way to 94 billion dollars and so if you're buying the stock here and the PE Ratio is out of this world on a different Stratosphere you can see that you're overpaying for the stock and this has come down this p e ratio has dropped off a cliff but at the same time this revenue is climbing the other direction something important to add here now that orange here is going to show you the revenue growth estimate for current fiscal here and you can see that's come down closer to 23 percent so even though that Revenue TTM is scaling up nicely the growth has slowed down some of course some of that's going to be from the economy and that's part of the reason that Tesla has been lowering prices to sell more Vehicles as well there's also tax credits to put into consideration and other variables and so if we go into recession certainly a stock like Tesla will be further impacted and the price is going to go lower and we do charge to every single Wednesday morning at nine o'clock AM Eastern live in Patr chart day now if you look at some of this previous commentary you know we like this stock especially 150 or less DCA and Discord most of us were buying pretty heavy in those levels the stock got up to 300 and it's pulled back so of course the stock is still way off the lows when you look at that 101 you know 81 low that we had here early January post Market the stocks at 232.13 now I switched this into orange because this is last week's chart day and I said last week the downside side possibilities are 228 214 202 and 188 so you can see this first line here this is going to be your S3 these are Fibonacci pivot Points you can see this first line it's getting pretty close to that that's going to be around 228 dollars now this trend line here is going to put you closer to this the circle and these are moving averages so you've got the 50-day moving average it's a 100-day moving average in red and the 200-day simple moving average here in the purple if you get down to that 200-day moving average it's also on that trend line it's going to take you to the previous S2 and so I think it's possible you see something like that closer to 200 a share this would put you at 198 dollars a share and this previous S3 is down here at 168.
for me if this stock gets below 200 a share I think that's kind of an area that I would try to load up some shares on Tesla and that might not happen so if you really like the stock I think your first point is going to be below 230 and you're going to dollar cost average really in this range now that previous S3 is all the way down here at 143 dollars so it's certainly possible that the stock could get to 150 did ours especially if the whole Market rolls over but I'm looking at this if I buy the stock at 225 dollars in five years I'm am I going to make money on that and the answer in my opinion is yes so this is really going to be up to you if you think you can time it if you think it's going to go lower you certainly wait for me I like the dollar cost average just nibble a little bit at different levels and I'm thinking long term when I'm buying now Amazon recently reported earnings it was a solid earnings report I've been telling you for a while I'm bullish on Amazon there's a lot of reasons why I've done a lot of deeper dive videos on Amazon I think people get bored they get lost in the weeds but the thing about Amazon guys it's a mega cap conglomerate you know if you look at Tesla we just talked about that's going to be a green energy conglomerate Amazon's going to be a technology conglomerate that has its hands in so many different pots the primary reason I own Amazon it's not because of retail it's not because of Kuiper's satellite even though I think that is an exciting part of the business really I own it for Amazon web services and if you think about the advertising segment that has been abs absolutely a beast and just looking at some of the earnings highlights that I posted in Discord Amazon web services 22.1 billion dollars versus 21.8 billion advertising 10.7 billion versus 10.4 billion now if you look just at alphabet Google and you look at YouTube specifically YouTube that returned to growth in this last quarter with ad Revenue up about four percent year over year and that was at 7.7 billion dollars and again Amazon advertising just came in at 10.7 billion dollars so Amazon advertising is now nearly 40 percent larger than YouTube advertising and a quote here from Andy jassy CEO our AWS growth stabilized as consumers started shifting from cost optimization to new workload deployment and when asked about generative AI jassy said it's going to be at the heart of what we do so when you look at Amazon web services it's not just public cloud services you're talking about actually building Hardware building chips as a fabulous Semiconductor Company to build ships for AI in their servers you also have things like Quantum Computing to look forward to in the future but looking specifically at Enterprise AI so Bedrock Amazon Bedrock that's going to be something that's scalable to existing customers now Amazon web services is the king of cloud so as they roll this out they're going to be able to expand that within their existing footprint and I've been telling you about Bedrock for months I did a video months ago didn't get a ton of views talked about Bedrock now it's starting to get the attention of analysts I'm very bullish on Amazon long term for many many reasons and if you want more information about Amazon there's several videos in the channel That Go much deeper so same deal let's look at some valuation metrics and then a chart so this is price to sales ratio for Amazon 2.646 and of course again it's not going to be the cheapest we've seen it because we saw a lot of these stocks at lower levels here at the end of 2022 in the beginning of 2023.
but if I look back going all the way to 2019 it's the lowest it's been from a PS ratio forward one year price to sales 2.236 p e ratio 108.5 4-3 now that's not cheap but you can see it was just 300 in this last earnings report made it drop from 300 to 108. so you can see if a company is growing if they're performing they can grow into those valuations rather quickly and that's the key it has to have growth it has to have some sort of catalyst this has a catalyst with AI now if I look at that Ford one year PE ratio 46.45 still not dirt cheap but getting more attractive and if you look at Revenue similar to what we saw in Tesla where that's going up 538.05 Billion now we look at Revenue growth estimate for current fiscal year in the orange now that fell off a cliff I think it's bottomed and it's starting to head the other direction the Market's forward-looking you can see the market starts to buy the stock in anticipation for those earnings reports to start coming in more positively now of course the same deal with Amazon if we go into a recession the Stock's going to go lower and it could retest those hundred dollar levels again and unfortunately I don't have a crystal ball to say hey we are going to go into recession we're not going to recession don't buy stocks buy stocks what I can do is look at a company and say Hey will this be a good investment if I buy at these levels and I'm thinking five years out and I think Amazon fits that bill so recently on chart day I said 125 support this is before earnings I prefer 115 to 120 between these two red lines now it's possible that it comes down to here but right now if you're looking at the chart you know post Market 137.69 many analysts have turned more bullish on this stock and it's making it go higher I'm not necessarily saying I go out and buy it hand over fist right here at 137 a share I'm saying if the market continues to roll over there's pressure if the NASDAQ continues to sell off all these stocks are going to sell off this is going to be a larger component of some of those those indexes like the S P 500 the NASDAQ and if you look at the 50-day moving average this is closer to 130 this 100-day moving average is about 118 119 this 200-day moving average is 106.
I don't necessarily think it's going to go to 106 dollars if it does get back close to 100 that's a pound of table for me personally but I do think it's possible you could see this you know 125 to 130 in The Sweet Spot especially if it came down between these two lines here here in this 100-day moving average you know closer to 120 a share now I've got one more stock pick and I think this is a diamond in the rough this is a Hidden Gem it's got explosive growth wait till you see the numbers on this this has better growth than Celsius and Snowflake and a ton of other stocks that you might think are hyper growth we're so close you can help me out by subscribing today and you can see all of my Buys in real time as well as the members from the community in the investing trade floor go check it out now this last stock is a small cap and this was a SPAC and I believe that's the reason why nobody wants to touch it really with a 10 foot pole it seems the company's firing on all cylinders the numbers are solid and if I look at this and I just say if this isn't a buy I don't know what is and I could be wrong maybe this company is going to go out of business who knows but I look at this stock and say if there were one stock right now that this doesn't seem to make sense when I look at the valuation and look at the growth it's this next stock you know for Indie semiconductor you're talking about this recent earnings report here just on August 10th Q2 Revenue 52.1 million up 102 percent year-over-year and 29 sequentially so people say well the growth is slowing down wait till you see the valuation metrics though secured a large program went at Bosch and there were a couple deals that got pushed a little bit and this is a company that's not profitable and they're saying hey we're going to be profitable soon and the Market's saying hey I don't really believe you guides Q3 2023 Revenue up a hundred percent year over year and 15 sequentially now of course with any company if you're growing at 100 quarter after quarter it's going to be hard to just keep growing at 100 for infinity and beyond this is a 240 million dollar annualized run rate and I did interview the CEO on this channel you can go check that video out after this video reiterate's plan to reach non-gaap operating income in Q4 more than double Revenue 2023 okay well it's non-gaap operating income and it's not guaranteed and it was a spack when the market has uncertainty it's going to sell small caps it's going to sell anything that's burning cash anything that has higher risk of of default they're not going to work out you know if these companies that have higher risk of going out of business the Market's going to throw them in the trash can anytime the market rolls over as soon as the Mark goes bullish stocks like this are going to shoot up again assuming they can continue to produce solid numbers price of sales ratio 6.05 Ford prices sales ratio one year 2.93 Revenue TTM 155.6 million that's a nice curve upwards now going back to price of sales this is the cheapest you can buy this stock since it came public through SPAC back in 2021.
at one point this was 40 price of sales now it's about a six and again that forward one year 2.93 three so adding that Revenue back in that blue line 155.6 million now that green line is going to give you Revenue growth estimate for current fiscal year and you can see that's down but it's still 104 now if I plug in Celsius I plug in Snowflake crowdstrike all those other stocks that we talk about none of them are even close to 104 and just to prove you what I'm talking about Indy is in the purple here 104.2 percent Celsius is close to 83.18 but these other ones are not even in the same ballpark you're looking at 28 here for axon crowdstrike at 35 percent snowflake at 33 and so on and again this is revenue growth estimate for current fiscal year but it's interesting to look at this and say Indie semiconductor out of all these stocks is going to be the highest growth but yet if you look at valuation metrics it's not that expensive in fact the only one that's going to be cheaper is going to be Mercado Libre at 5.429 those margins are pretty low though but you can see here 5.4 for Mercado Libre you've got axon closer to 11.
you've got Indy here at 6.05 live and you go to snowflake at 21.4 on the price of sales ratio so pretty attractive valuation one of the cheapest levels you can buy it with the best metrics it's had since it went public as well you know still growing at a hundred percent year over year I don't know you tell me what's wrong with any semiconductor I think it's a buy let me show you a chart so recent chart day we said earnings are going to decide what happens next earnings on August 10th and we had a huge range here we look at these Fibonacci pivot Points between 1179 and the top end to 753 on the S3 now this fell way below that in fact it got down in the sixes it got closer to like six dollars and fifty cents on Friday it's recovered a little bit it's at 7.25 right now and for for us in Discord when we're buying this stock especially in the fives and sixes and it's really always been something like if you can get it seven dollars or less that's a DCA buy you can see previous charge day DCA under seven five dollars always possible later you can see here DC under seven five dollars possible later and it did actually get in those fives for a brief period and then it kind of rocketed from those levels you can see here it got down in January it was a 5.66 stock and it ripped from five dollars to eleven dollars so you look at this it's gonna be volatile it's a small cap it has wrists it's probably a Spec stock it was also a spack a lot of people just throw those in the trash I think any Semiconductor in the sixes for me it's a pile on the table by as a spec play spec play means it's a 10x or zero but if I look at spec plays out there if I look at the growth I look at the metrics look at the possibility interview the CEO on the channel I've done all the due diligence I possibly can on this company I have conviction in this stock it's the highest conviction Spec stock that I own and if it's in the sixes I think it's a pound of table buy unless something catastrophic happens with the story I see this stock being worth a lot more in the next three four and five years if you're not familiar with what Indie semiconductor does I have deeper dive videos on the channel it's really focused on Automotive semiconductors it's a fabulous semiconductor equipment company
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