저자: Mr.FIREDUpWealth · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어 2분기 실적(EPS 0.05달러, 매출 5.33억달러 전년比 12.8%↑)은 시장 예상에 부합. GAAP 흑자 3분기 연속, 영업이익 1000만달러, 영업현금흐름 9000만달러, 현금성자산 31억달러. 연간 매출 가이던스 22.12억달러로 소폭 상향, 10억달러 자사주 매입 승인. AIP 관련 300여 기업과 협상 중이라 주장. 주가 약 17~18달러, 매출 대비 19배로 고평가 지적하나 장기 투자 매력은 긍정. 단기 지지 17.10달러, 상단 20~23달러, 하단 13.56달러 제시.
다듬은 글
Palantir just released its earnings report. The stock was quite volatile after the results were announced. At one point, they fell by about 12%. They are now down 3%, trading at $17.41. The stock has risen 181% since the beginning of the year, before falling 3% after the close of trading. And they have grown by 83.2% over the last year.
So that's a market cap of just under $40 billion , about $38 billion. The 52-week low was below $6. It was $5.92. The 52-week high was $20.24. So let's analyze the profits. Let's see what happens. I'll show you all the news , the highlights of the report. I will give you my comments. We will look at the cost estimate.
Let's also look at the graph. And I'll tell you whether I think Palantir is worth buying right now at these levels. So, earnings per share ( non-GAAP) for the second quarter were 5 cents. This is in line with predictions . Revenue was $533.32 million. This is 12.8% more than last year, which is also in line with forecasts .
Commercial revenue grew by about 10% year-over-year to $232 million . In particular, commercial revenue in the US grew by 20% year-on-year to $103 million . Public sector revenue grew 15% year-on-year to $302 million. If you look at the international public sector alone, this revenue grew by 31% year-on-year to $76 million .
The number of customers increased by 38% year-on-year and by 8% quarter-on- quarter. The number of commercial customers in the US grew by 35% year-over-year, from 119 in Q2 2022 to 161 this quarter, Q2 2023 . So, one of the main reasons for the success of stocks is indeed AI. There is a lot of AI hype around this company , and it is a true AI company.
So when you think about AIP, it's something relatively new for Palantir. We've talked about this on our channel before. Activate large-scale language models and other AI on your private network safely and securely. We're talking about Snowflake, which uses Nvidia's AI as a service. Palantir is doing something similar, so you can literally make your data talk to you using generative AI.
AIP will allow our customers to leverage the power of existing machine learning technologies along with large language models directly within our existing platforms. You can see all the features here. AI-optimized database, support logic panel, secure AI control handover, human in the loop, digital footprint, etc.
So, GAAP net income was $28 million . This is the third consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability. So looking at that $28 million, that's $0.01 per share of net income compared to a net loss of $179 million or $0.09 per share in the year-ago quarter. So Palantir met expectations for revenue and profits, but they also raised their revenue forecast to over $2.212 billion.
So, this is above the average forecast for May. Analysts surveyed expected 2.209 billion. So this is a slightly higher forecast. They also approved a share repurchase program for up to $1 billion of outstanding Class A common stock. And here is the letter to shareholders. The scale of the opportunities before us has never been greater.
The focus is again on the Artificial Intelligence Platform, or AIP, which enables large language models to work within the enterprise and with private data. And this was announced less than 3 months ago. Now, what's really interesting about this? This is the Forrester Wave for AI and Machine Learning Platforms for Q3 2022.
So, this was done before the AIP announcement. And you see Q3 2022, Palantir is here as a leader. You also see C3AI, Data Robot, you see IBM here. So, a short report from bear cave recently appeared stating that Palantir is not a true AI company, but Forrester Wave said back in Q3 2022 that it was , and that was before the AIP announcement.
This is a nice graph that shows improving financial performance. So, the transition from negative to positive values. We achieved an operating profit for the second consecutive quarter, with our operating income increasing to $10 million . Additionally, our cash flow from operations reached $90 million, marking our 10th consecutive quarter of positive cash flow.
As of June 30, 2023, we had $3.1 billion in cash and cash equivalents in the bank. This is significant. You can see the growth in cash, cash equivalents, and treasury bills. Speaking of AIP again, the resulting demand for AIP is unlike anything we've seen in the last 20 years. We are currently in talks with over 300 additional enterprises to implement AIP in their organizations, all of whom are looking for an efficient and secure way to adapt the latest large-scale language models for use in their internal systems and with their own data.
And that's really important. So we expect to remain profitable on both a quarterly and annual basis this year. And as a result, he says they will meet the criteria for inclusion in the S&P 500 index after they report their financial results for Q3 2023, which will be in early November. And Karp says here that at that point they will be profitable in aggregate over the previous four quarters.
So, the stock has gone from falling 12% at its lowest point to now actually up 1.78% of the market at $18.31. So, this 52- week low of 5.84 was on January 24th of this year. And the 52-week high only occurred on August 1, 2023. We said in our previous video that the stock would go up to $20. They will probably encounter some resistance there.
And so it happened, and they rolled back. So, of course, Palantir is not a cheap stock. The price- to-sales ratio is currently 19.16. The PE ratio for the forecast for next year, according to Fidelity, is 71.7. The forecast for this year is 85.4. So, this is Palantir's price-to-sales ratio, starting from the direct listing.
This was not an IPO, it was a direct listing at the end of 2020. And you can see that it was closer to 10, and then it jumped up to 40 or so. He turned back downstairs . This is the lowest figure we have seen. They were pretty inexpensive last year. I'll look at the chart now and show you. And right now they're trading at about a price-to- sales multiple of 19.
So, this is n't the lowest price these stocks have ever been. This is also not the highest price the stock has ever been, but it can be argued that it has far exceeded its potential in 2021. So next we will look at the schedule. I'll show you where I think the stock could go and tell you whether I think it's a worthwhile investment at these levels.
I will also provide some candid comments. Before I do that, if this is your first time here, subscribe to the channel. Click the bell to receive notifications. We are trying to reach 50,000 subscribers on the channel. You can help me by signing up today. And if this video was helpful, please like and leave a comment.
I'm releasing this video as soon as possible after the earnings report, trying to give you real-time updates. And I need to declar want iredupwealth. And if you want to join our closed Patreon Discord community, visit patreon.com/firedupwealth. So, the RSI is now neutral, at around 55.91. Of course, it again varies from 0 to 100.
When it is 30 or less, it is an oversold zone. 70 or above— overbought zone. Every Wednesday we host what we call "chart day" on our Patreon Discord. When you see orange, it is the previous day of the charts. Yellow is today, and I have prepared comments for you in yellow . But before I show today's comments, let's take a look at the previous ones.
Well, we recently said that we hit the target. Next level R3: the price will reach $20 and meet resistance. Be careful with price gouging. Earnings report— August 7. That's it. And I also asked: why would anyone buy this for $20? The stock was worth $6 and $7 over 12 months. Just be careful when buying on hype.
You can see here that I really liked the price below $6. We said that a price below six is a possibility, in my opinion. Below $6—time to act decisively. You see the stock was here in May 2022 at $6.40. And it literally traded in a sideways range for a year. You see that the highs were 11.62 and 10.31, but most of the time it was between six and nine dollars.
And this lasted from May 2022 until May 2023. It only cost $7.20. So you had plenty of time to accumulate shares in stocks. And, of course, it soared from 7.28 to 17 . There was a small pullback, then it reached $20. This is the R1 level. These are Fibonacci reversal points. And she rolled back. And now we are watching a real battle between the " bears" and the "bulls " in after-hours.
So, before I share my price targets and where I think it could go, up or down, I want to provide a general comment on this stock. I am optimistic about Palantir. I like it as a long-term investment. I understand that retail investors, individual investors, are very fond of this name. This is a very controversial company .
It's a kind of action that you either love or hate, it's truly a cult action. Let's call things by their right names. So, I really like this promotion. We were the first to cover this on YouTube 6 months before Palantir went public. I was very bullish on this stock below $9, and again in the $6 range, it was a " fist-on-the-table" buy, as they say.
So, the question is, is it worth buying it now if you haven't already? You should understand that this company has been around since 2003. And that just shows you that this stock, this company, has been on the market for 20 years. The stock has only been trading since late 2020, but the company itself is 20 years old.
So it's a positive that it's turning a profit. It could be included in the S&P 500 index. This could significantly increase the value of the shares. And whenever there is momentum, the names can rise higher and higher. More people are starting to buy. It's really a matter of supply and demand. The more people want to buy stocks, the higher they will, of course, rise.
Previously, we looked at the price- to-earnings ratio and the forward PE ratio. SaaS companies, i.e. software as a service, have a steady income. And often you look at other metrics. One such metric we look at is EV to next year's revenue. Looking at my list on my phone, right now Palantir only has 1, 2, 3...only four stocks trading at a higher valuation than Palantir.
Palantir ranks fifth among all the cloud SaaS companies I follow. So, it trades at approximately 16.9 times EV to next year's revenue. For comparison: Snowflake—21.2, MongoDB—18.7, Cloudflare—18.1, and DataDog—17. Now, looking at the free cash flow percentage, prior to this quarter—I need to run the numbers—it was 17 %.
Snowflake has 27%, MongoDB has only 2%, Cloudflare has 4%, and DataDog has 19%. So, not bad numbers. But if you take the “rule of 40,” Palantir had 35%. Snowflake has 74%, MongoDB has 31%, Cloudflare has 40%, and Datadog has 52%. So Palantir's growth isn't really that stellar. You look at this " rule of 40," you want the ratio to be 40 or above, and it's below 40.
And it's worth noting that out of these top five, Palantir has the lowest net dollar revenue retention rate—115 %. In other companies, this figure ranges from 117% to 151% in the case of Snowflake. I like this promotion, but the reality is that it's not cheap. This does not mean that stocks cannot grow, because when there is momentum and people start buying them en masse , the price may well go up.
So, let's take a look at the chart and I'll share my final thoughts on where this stock could be headed. Okay, this R3 level is here at 23.53. Now, after the market close, it is slightly in the "green zone" at $18.05. It has support at $17.10. If it holds 17, the upside potential is likely to be between $20 and $23, between these R1 and R3 levels.
If it breaks $17.10, you could see 16.10 and even a drop to 13.56. This 13.56 is the previous low. That would be a double bottom on that red line. And I'm not saying that it will definitely happen. These are just possible options. So, in terms of downside, we're realistically looking at 13.56. In terms of growth—23.53.
If the overall market goes down, stocks like Palantir could very easily collapse. So you have to be careful. But now the momentum seems quite positive thanks to the earnings report. There is some stabilization. Whenever there is an earnings report like this , we are soon faced with a conference call regarding financial results.
This can lead to a sharp jump in the price of shares or their fall. You need to be careful with this. If you invest in something like Palantir, you have to take a long-term approach. This is something you will likely hold for 3, 4, 5 or more years as a long-term investor. But understand, this is not a cheap stock, and the growth is not phenomenal for such a valuation.
Ultimately , do what's best for your money. Thanks for listening, friends. I appreciate your time and attention. Don't forget to subscribe, like, and leave a comment. Have a nice rest of your day . Take care of yourself.
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