저자: RaamdeoAgrawal외SunilSinghania등출연 · 외국인
요약 보기
첫 줄: 인도 증시 장기 낙관, 금융주 중장기 강세 전망, 단기 조정 시 분산투자 권고 [시장 전반·인도 증시] 디왈리 특집으로 인도 증시 밸류에이션 논의. 외국인 자금 일부 이탈은 세계 경기·지정학(중국, 러시아, 2차대전 이후 최대 전쟁) 및 유럽 인플레에 따른 리밸런싱으로 해석. 니프티 멀티플은 적정 수준으로 언급, 분기 단위 이익 조정(약 3%)이 있었으나 극적 상승 기대는 제한적. IMF 전망상 인도는 6% 이상 성장 유일 국가로 언급, 외국인 자금은 내년 디왈리 전까지 복귀 가능하다는 입장. [투자 시점·장기 투자] 투자 기간이 5~10년이면 매수 시점보다 시장에 머무는 것이 중요, 최고 상승 구간을 놓치는 것이 더 큰 위험이라는 주장. 인도 경제 6조 달러 도달 시점에 대한 낙관적 전망 제시. [금융주] 여신 사이클 전환, 성장률 15~16% 회복, 비용·부실 감소 언급. 다만 3~4년 후 부실 대출 사이클 재개 가능성 경고. 은행주는 과거 최악 섹터였으나 최근 25~40% 상승, 그럼에도 다수 은행이 현재가 대비 최대 30% 할인 거래된다고 언급. [섹터 로테이션] 방산→자동차→은행으로 테마 순환이 짧아졌으므로 집중 투자보다 분산 포트폴리오 필요 주장. [수출·제약·자본재] 수출 중심 섹터는 환율 효과로 이익 방어 가능, 다만 물량 둔화 우려. 제약(특히 국내 소비 의약품)은 관심 섹터로 언급. 자본재는 성장성 있으나 밸류에이션 부담으로 신중. [리스크] 글로벌 긴축, 지정학 리스크, 외국인 자금 이탈 지속 가능성, 은행 부실 재발 가능성. [출연자 전망] 인도 장기 성장 낙관, 단기 변동성은 수용하고 장기 보유 권고.
다듬은 글
Welcome to this special Diwali presentation. We thought that the mantras or formulas for prosperity that should be given to you on the occasion of Diwali should be taken directly from the gurus. Instead of calling you to our studio, I came straight to Guruji 's house to learn how you can make yourself prosperous on the occasion of Diwali, create your own wealth, what methods can be there for that, how to teach it.
So today we will be talking to Ramdev Agarwal Sir and Sunil Sir, they need no introduction, they are big giants in the market, if the viewers have experience then they should buy a gift on Diwali. Best wishes to all the viewers. Happy Diwali to all the viewers. But today you have created an actual Diwali here.
I think I felt like Diwali is today, it has happened. I was thinking of raising a slogan, the atmosphere in the market is such that I felt that you must have heard that the pride of others will be broken, the detailed investor will win. It is true that our retail is taking responsibility. Gaurav has a lot of money and the market is running great for you, so you should earn more than what you send.
It was worth 700 billion dollars, then it fell to 600 billion and they stopped sending it back. It has been 700 years since it was so good at 14000 to 17000, in that ₹750 will have to come back. Where will you go leaving such a good market? We like it here very much and should stay here and they have also got peace of mind, but you should also look at it from the world's perspective.
I think whatever has happened in the world in the last one year has been very concerning for me. The issue of China, the issue of Russia and it is the biggest war after World War 2. In a sense, so many countries are directly and indirectly involved. Inflation has never happened so much in Europe in the last 30-40 years as you have seen.
Earlier, it used to take 2 years to increase the interest rate to 2% or 2.5%, and now in 4 months they have increased it by 2:15%, so this has been a bit of a troublesome environment and keeping that in mind, I think what they have done Obviously, there was a risk of trade, so it is not that they reduced their exposure only in India, I think they reduced the crosses.
Secondly, you should also see that whenever you manage your portfolio, if one thing becomes a little overweight in yours because it has outperformed, then it is natural to balance it. It is not that they have left India, many people have rebalanced it. As the world stabilizes, I think India's growth rate and whatever is the recent IMF forecast, India is the only country which is going to go at more than 6%.
So it will take time but they will definitely come back till next Diwali. If we at least talk about it in a framework, then in the language of Diwali, will the market be rocket, will it be pomegranate, will it be sparkler, whatever we say will be wrong, but then we will definitely say, I think the multiple is very good.
Right now the Nifty multiple is fine, I mean it is a good multiple. Now the question is how much will the multiple be if daily, 12-15% happened, it is decreasing a bit, in this quarter it was reduced by 3%, so if there is 7500, all that was a matter of 850 and we are talking about 8:15, next year that means the journey of 24, the first thousand is being talked about, 900 has gone, that means in 24 also, if two-four things get settled then it means it can happen but it is not a rocket thing, looking at the current environment, the expectation is that you should also be a little content and Arnis should get as much as he wants, very good Sunil Sir, people in the market say that there is always a good time to buy shares, there is no bad time in it, that is right, you will have to look at it from your investment viewpoint, if your investment period is one way then this is absolutely wrong, but if the duration of your investment is 5-10 years, then whatever you have bought, you will not have any impact on your period of time, now see, suppose you invested for 5 years and your five seven percent is also above If you have taken it, then you will see an impact in your taking returns of half a year, but if you do not do it, then it is possible that you are missing your best period, like at the time of I, there was a very bullish market environment, if you missed it on June 1, then you will have to take it at a higher rate of 15% again, see banks have gone up by 25, 30, 40% now, it was the worst performing sector, who did not want to take a bank, then I think it is very difficult, but if you think that, which we think, India's economy will reach six trillion, if you are bullish, then you will say that it will happen in six years, if you think that the market will reach eight years, then it is there, then you do not need to stop, so the meaning is that if you take it for wealth creation for your portfolio, then you can take it anytime, do not think too much, this is my thought, I have been with Indian equity for 40 years, 100, 100 Sensex, look, I do not understand the temples, okay question There is something else for conversation, but the best time is when you have an offer and the best sale is the one you need.
I am shopping right now in the morning. Sir, where will I get the money from? My salary does n't cover the entire tax. Motilal ji, I remember the brother's result, as soon as the money comes in, everything is fine, we invest everything. You guys must be doing Diwali shopping. What all do you want to buy in which type of sector?
Now look, firstly, in the financial sector, the credit cycle has turned after a long time. Your growth rate has reached 15-16%. Costs are coming down. Bouncers are coming down. So, the recovery that is happening in the post is also very good. I think in the last 15-20 years, even in 15-17 years, I don't think that the financial sector will do so well.
I mean, it will stop for a little bit, it is for three-four years, until you do not do bad landings again. Right now, skills are being acquired. A time will come when there will be wrong landings, wrong amount will be given to the wrong person, wrong rate will also be given. So, that has not happened yet, then after that it gets worse.
So now It has not happened yet, if you will prepare the book right now, let the new book be prepared, so I think this is a long cycle, from whichever bank I am with, there are a lot of bulls in these financials and the balance sheet is very clean, the earlier the seed is all clean, ours is also clean, the company, the government's government too, there is a little problem right now, is this the reason or is there any special reason, when there was a bad landing, then all the cleaning was done and whatever else you take out from anyone six months ago, how much landing you have in 6 months, you will suffer a loss in that, will it definitely happen in the new book, as you move forward, you will not spoil the marginal 12 overs, but debt will happen after two three years, so this cycle will continue, everyone's will be seen then, will the cycle continue, sir, you are also shopping in banking, it has become so cheap, people say that normally people who shop do it at the time of sale, whenever there is a sale, stock market is like this, when this sale happens, then no one wants to shop, so when the time for shopping came, people did not shop, now like financial We have talked about it, I think in June, the same ICICI Bank, the same State Bank, some Axis Bank are trading up to 30% below the current price.
So, I think if you follow the trend in the equity market, you will always make wrong investments at the wrong time. I am not saying that banks are not good, banks are still good, but a consensus trade is being formed. So, according to me, the market performance is just likelier than the banks. I think when you create a portfolio, you will have to have a diversified portfolio because the cycle, as I said, has become very short.
Earlier, things that used to happen in two-three years, happen in the market in two-three months now. First, there was the defense environment, then the auto environment, then the banking environment, now there will be some other environment, but you cannot keep your portfolio crushed again and again successfully.
You will find a trend, you will go wrong in one trend. So, all of ours, it still looks pretty good. The results have been good here. The international sector, the entire export-oriented sector, is a little slow there. It will go down but the slowdown in volume will be more than that, you will get profit in currency, so it continues to be a good sector, here India is a global leader and globally competitive, I think pharmas are becoming very interesting, the same thing happened in pharma, nothing has happened in the sector for one and a half years, we are not going out, we are not eating outside, we are not getting sick, we are washing our hands four times today, so you know, I think the consumption of non-co-operative medicines is also dramatic, that is again happening, it is an ungood sector from an export perspective because of the currency, you have to Kelvin, I think that sector is also a little non-consensus, that should be looked at and there is growth in India, so capital goods, but the valuations in that are not comfortable and domestic I think consumption
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