저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 빅테크 조정 이후 시장 주도주가 비기술주(금융·부동산·방산·제약 등)로 옮겨갈 가능성이 크다는 견해. 시장 흐름 진단 - 기술주 중심 투자 쏠림이 강해 단기적으로 기술주 매도 후 비기술 영역으로 자금 이동이 나타날 수 있음 - 과거 2000년 Y2K, 9·11, 글로벌 금융위기 등 사례를 들며 주도 섹터는 시간이 지나며 바뀐다고 설명 - 디지털 기업 조정은 5~7년 걸릴 수 있으나 최근엔 정보 확산으로 사이클이 2~3개월 단위로 짧아졌다고 주장 비기술 섹터 전망 - 금융(핀테크·은행·보험 포함)은 전 세계 이익의 약 35%를 차지하는 큰 섹터로 언급 - 기술주에서 빠진 유동성이 금융·부동산·방산·제약 등으로 이동할 것으로 봄 - 구체적 종목·목표가는 언급되지 않음 콘텐츠·OTT 관련(투자 대상 아님) - OTT 구독 증가, 남인도 영화의 흥행, 언어 장벽 완화에 따른 콘텐츠 시장 성장 긍정적 평가 장기 투자 원칙 - 복리 효과 강조, 월 10만 루피 25년 투자 등 장기 적립 필요성 언급 - 대다수 개인은 잘못된 타이밍 매매로 지수 수익률(연 12~15% 수준)을 못 얻는다고 지적 - 단기 고수익(2~3개월 내 두 배) 기대는 비현실적이라고 경계 리스크 - 기술주 조정이 예상보다 빠르게 진행될 수 있으며, 섹터 교체 시점 예측은 불확실하다고 본인이 인정 출연자 전망 - 전반적으로 중장기 분산·복리 투자 관점, 단기 시장 예측에는 신중한 태도
다듬은 글
We have heard that when the market comes down once, after that big rally starts again, then its Alexander changes, the leaders become different, someone like this happens, it is definitely where the mistake is, right now everyone is stuck in digital, everyone is invested in tech, so everyone is selling left, right and center, whatever the long term is, but in the short term everyone is running away from there, where are they going now, in non-tech, so now look at the Y2K incident that happened in 2000, there was a lot of atrocities in 2000, after that when everyone got connected from there, it started again after 911, then all the financial companies got together and died, that is, the global financial crisis happened, okay, what did you do in 2020, the digital company correction will continue, whatever exercise you do, it will all end, brother, it will last for 5-7 years, but the market is liquidity, you find a new hero, new hero, new place, then there will be an emergency, so I think it will either happen in financial, but I feel that there will definitely be a non-tech explosion, be it real estate, finance, defense, or pharma world, will What is finance?
Finance is very big worldwide, I mean, in every way, there is fintech, there are banks, MBFCs, housing finance companies, specialized lenders, so it is a big sector, a very big pocket. I think all the sectors, including insurance, together account for almost 35% of the total profit. So, if you are not going into tech, then there could be a big storm in finance.
I do n't know where the market will turn, but this is just a stream of water. If you are coming out of tax, then you will have to find some big segment where that incremental liquid can go. So, I think it will be a non-tax hero. Sunil Ram, I see a new hero who is going to come, I am a hero, but I will differentiate only on one thing, brother, now digital has become an integral part of our lives, which was not there in 2000.
We have become used to Amazon, we have become used to doing something in digital. It has become an integral part and a good thing, stop correction. It has been brutal, isn't it? So the collection which was supposed to come in five years, seven years, it came in one year only. That's what I was trying to highlight, what used to happen in two, three, four years, nowadays it happens in two-three months because everyone is knowledgeable, everyone has instant news.
Mani, you just took an interview, after 15 seconds everyone will get our photos on WhatsApp, it is so instant, so I think the same, I think data cycles are short and so what used to take 5 years, it may take a little less time, and that time mostly comes and it applause to you as well, oh, after it becomes a new trend, it becomes clear that this trend is very good, you have talked about consumption and domestic, sir, what are you talking about Netflix, which has also increased very well, its subscription has increased by 26 lakhs and well, two days ago they scared me, till now I am bringing a new plan, it is a little cheaper so that people can get it.
If you see, in India, many films are coming from South and that 400 It is doing a business of Rs 500 crore, Rs 600 crore and so what about the weekend, the OTT distribution of our films can see huge growth in this kind of business. We want to remain positive, like we have completely absorbed the South Indian films, we are also looking for the Indian film industry to go global.
Today, if any film here does Rs 200 crore and if it becomes a hit, then it will land even a single ticket. So I think this is an opportunity because all this is from the OTT platform, there is no language variable. I often see that I like a movie or a series, I find it made in Spain or Mexico, I saw a series from the Netherlands, it was very good, so I think this is the whole language barrier, you get it in a subdued format and it is so well subdued that you cannot understand it.
So I think this is an opportunity. You will have to reach the consumer in new ways, first you go to the theatre and consume it. It comes in the credit in a month or two, so first you watch five movies, then go to the theatre, maybe you watch only one or two, you will have to make the movie a little lavish so that people go to the theatre and watch it, you will have to make the movie to watch it on the big screen so that it has some special effects, there can be a little thread also, but the opportunity for the content maker is huge because ultimately whether you are on the credit or in the theatre or on TV, ultimately you need content, right, so content will become king, content and people want to know, you are watching me, their main aim is to become rich, earn money, earn money from money, traditionally it was a big thing that people used to think that earning money means usury, so you were not taught knowledge brother, you need to earn money from money, you can become rich in many ways, what is the recipe, how will you become rich, I mean, sit patiently, buy it and then after 10 years, what is the recipe, sir, see, you are young, firstly you are young, no matter which one, first you will learn compounding, what is there here You mean you will hear the story, the second one increased, the third one went, but the same market is going to come at plus 3-4% only, so you should understand that here, all those who are investing in lakhs and crores, even if everyone gets only that much as per the speed of the market, it is a big thing, 90% people don't get the index return, 90% people because they buy at the wrong time, sell at the wrong time, so first of all what is this, so you should be prepared for the index return, so there are 100-50 such people, whatever index is giving 15%, then there are 20, 25, 30% Kamal, like these, they can earn, right, there are 25-50 such people, understand, I don't know the names of their dogs, but these people can do it, but for every person, those lakhs of people, now we are talking about 10 crore people, they will all get only 12-13%, this should be understood, now how will you build a bridge with 12-13%, so if you invest 15%, then your money will double in 5 years, how many times, in 10 years, four times In 15 years, 16 years and 25 years, you will have to keep this thing in mind that if I invest ₹1 lakh every month for 25 years, then how much money will I make?
There is no patience these days, but there is no other way. You tell me, all the brothers have been in business for 40 years, I have been in business for 30 years, if the formula as said by the brother is doubling in 5 years, then in 40 years the money gets 250 times, then even in 250 times if a person is not satisfied, the power of compounding and in that, if one year goes well like yours, if you go in 21 years, then 250 will become 500, I don't know why I asked this question, Sir, when we once went to Lucknow on vacation, I went to Delhi, then it came to people's mind that now people make money in the market, people earn well, money is created, but right now tell me something like this is in their mind, double it in two-three months, I said brother, I have not learnt any such trick yet, I will definitely ask this question every time I go, but this does not happen myself and Investors should also invest wisely.
If they invest in equity, they want to double it in 2 months and in savings account, they get up to 2.5% in the whole year. But there are lakhs of crores of rupees, lakhs of crores of rupees, which are lying in current account and savings account. There is no worry about that. People invest in big equities, they want to double it in 3 months, so what will happen in that?
It can happen once in a while, someone gets hit instantly, but as Bhaiya said, ultimately, if you consistently get hit even by 3-4% more than the index, then you are a superstar, not only in India or the world. Well, I have one more question, who earns the most money? The opportunist or the consistent one, who creates opportunities in the market for himself by searching for opportunities again and again, can make money?
Or the one who is invested consistently once, does it or invests every month and makes money. See, there are as many ways to earn money as there are people, brother, see, we are professionals, so we have to live and die in the market 24 hours a day, so we People might be earning a little more if they are working so hard then of course they do this but the person who is doing a job, doing many jobs, whose salary is 5-10 lakh rupees per month, that poor fellow is sold there, his time is only spent there, he can spend that much time, he can do the proof level here, a wealth manager will go and give it to you, then he will do this immediately, he will get only 12-15%, so how much will be decided on your profile, yes how much is your interest, how much mileage you do, how much hard work you can do with your money, if you are working 24/7, you are calling, you are inquiring, will you get the result, then your expectation should also be right, if I also expect to earn between the amount of hard work you do, then maybe it is, I know it is very difficult, but maybe I am expecting the right thing, okay and I know that the default is to earn ₹20, if he is doing the biodata, then it will be 15-16, then it is enough, okay, but the person sitting outside who You have worked hard to earn money and just give it to us, how will that happen, it will be 12, 13 %, 14% Welcome to Future Rest Market
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