저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 트럼프 정책(규제완화·세제개혁·인프라) 기대가 다우 2만 돌파 랠리를 지지하며, 달러 과강세와 세계 경제 동조화 부족이 주요 리스크다. 시장 랠리 동력 정책이 랠리의 핵심 연료이며 규제완화·세제개혁·인프라 신호가 계속되면 랠리가 유지·확대된다고 봄. 도드-프랭크 규제 완화 소식은 대형은행에 우호적이며 금리 상승과 경기 성장 전망까지 겹쳐 금융주가 과거보다 좋은 위치에 있다고 평가. 포트폴리오 전략 대선 전 불확실성 때문에 현금 비중(약 30%)을 높여 옵셔널리티를 확보했으나, 대선 이후 금융·산업재가 먼저 오르고 이후 기술주 등 후행 섹터로 이동했다고 설명. 향후 관심 영역은 소비재 관련주와 신흥국 시장이며, 트럼프 정부가 친성장 정책을 실제로 집행한다는 전제 하에 유효하다고 언급. 리스크와 우려 가장 큰 우려는 나머지 세계가 미국의 정책 전환에 동참하지 않아 미국 시장의 상승을 제약할 가능성. 달러가 과도하게 강세를 보이면 자본 유입과 연준의 연내 3회 금리 인상 전망 때문에 다른 시장에 큰 영향을 줄 것이므로 달러 움직임을 주시해야 한다고 강조. 영국·브렉시트 및 무역 영국은 브렉시트 이후 무역 관계를 재정의하는 중이며 미국도 기존 양자·다자 협정을 재협상하려 하므로, 양국이 무역 관계에서 서로를 지지하는 것이 성공의 기준이라고 봄. 테레사 메이 총리와 트럼프 간 '특별한 관계'는 안보보다 경제, 특히 무역 측면에서 핵심이라는 입장. 기타 시장 코멘트 다우 2만은 심리적 라운드 넘버일 뿐 중요한 지표가 아니라고 평가. 미국 달러가 소폭 약세를 보이면서 달러 표시 유가가 상승. 출연자는 시장에 대해 여전히 낙관적이라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
I want to get to Muhammad Alerian. Why? Because he is one of the most widely followed and listened to financial and money minds on the planet. This is a whole discussion Muhammad that we are watching at the moment where there's so much news that matters on the global stage and yet we just crossed Dow 20,000.
Do you see the twain in a way conversing and what is the key thing that keeps the extension of a Dow 20,000 rally? Absolutely. It's all about policy, policy, policy, policy. So, what keeps this rally going and widens it is continuous signal that the Trump administration is moving on deregulation, on tax reform, and on infrastructure.
And that is the fuel for the rally. It has been and will continue to be. Did you hear those breaking news headlines? And we can put some of them up that uh first Mike Pence had said that they will relieve the burden of DoddFrank. you at Alons, I'm sure, and and having been at all of your financial operations, have dealt with the the what some say have been ownorous rules of DoddFrank that are big regulations.
Uh what does that mean to somebody like you and to the financial world, which has, by the way, led the rally since election day for the banks? So, the news is going to be welcomed, especially by the big banks. They're going to see this as yet another enabler for them, and it comes on top of two other enablers.
So, not only are we are we seeing the possibility of deregulation, but we're also seeing interest rates going back up. That's good for banks. And we're also seeing the economy growth perspective going back up. So, this is just going to reinforce the sense that financials are in a much better place than they've been for quite a long time.
It it matters to me that you're here, especially on a day like this because I remember back in October we spoke and you were going more to cash. I believe you had about 30% in cash which seemed a little high for a guy like you who likes to put his money to work. One month later was the election and we've seen this rather incredible rally and we can show what the major indices have done since then but to me uh my question to you is now what are you in what are you telling clients and please share it with our viewers.
So think of going into the election there was a lot of uncertainty not just here but also globally. So the idea was to build optionality, have more cash at one end and higher risk exposures on the other end so that you don't completely miss a rally. After the elections was all about financial and industrials.
Then it was about the lagging sectors technology in particular. Now if this continues there are two areas that are that should be of interest. One is consumer related names and the other one emerging markets. And I think that's how this rally bordens provided the Trump administration delivers on its progrowth policy announcements.
Are you worried at all about anything that Donald Trump has has proposed, said or done? What I worry about most right now for markets is that the rest of the world is so behind the US. So the US alone can take the market up to a certain level but you also need the rest of the world to participate in this new policy pivot.
Otherwise the rest of the world is going to be a constraint on how well the US markets can do. Well that brings me to the UK and the rest of the world and as we wait on Theresa May and again the UK prime minister about to give this speech and we actually have had Muhammad a little bit of clarity on what she's going to talk about.
It's it's almost like this superhero relationship, Captain America, Donald Trump, and listen, I'm not I'm not genulecting here. I'm I'm not being obsequious. I'm simply saying that that if Donald Trump and Theresa May are getting together, it's like Wonder Woman, Captain America, can they save the world?
Can they? You know, you have a tentative economy certainly in the UK. Uh the United States has been uh getting better and better. Since the past year, we have something like 75 weeks of job creation. And uh you know you look we call it like we see it. President Obama did hand Donald Trump a stable or at least more stable economy.
But what does she have to say to make this a stronger bond? So they need to help each other and help each other in the area of trade with Brexit. The UK is going through a fundamental redefinition of its trading relations. The US is looking to renegotiate some of its long-standing bilateral and multilateral agreements.
So the special relationship should provide an anchor for both sides on the trade side. And that's what I would look to. That's what I would call success is that they come together and anchor each other's new trading relations. There are other things on the security front that are critical, but on the economic front it's about trade, trade, trade, trade.
And one last word certainly about Dow 20,000. You know, you had the Wall Street Journal saying, "Oh, it's anacronistic." Look, it's a psychological round number. Now, what metric are you looking at? Forget Dow 20,000. We're to it and through it. The dollar. The one thing that worries me is that if other countries do not join the US, the dollar will appreciate too much.
Why? Because this economy will be stronger, attracting more inflows, and because the Fed will deliver on at least three hikes this year. So the concern is that the dollar appreciates too much. So keep an eye on the dollar. That's going to have a big influence on what other markets do. Yeah. Well, the US dollar slightly weaker today and that is driving oil up because of course oil's denominated in dollars.
But uh Muhammad, you remain optimistic. Yes, I do. Great to have you. Muhammad Alien of Alons.
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