저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 다음 강세장은 한두 섹터가 아니라 3~5개 섹터가 함께 주도할 가능성이 크지만, 특정 종목·섹터를 콕 집어 추천하지는 않는다. 강세장 주도주 구조 변화: 2003~2007년 강세장에는 은행, 인프라, 부동산 등 여러 섹터가 주도했고, 이후 주도 섹터가 달라졌다. 과거 주도 섹터가 이후 부진한 경우도 많아 지수 흐름만 보고 강세장/약세장을 구분하는 방식은 실효성이 낮다고 본다. 다음 시장: 강세장이 시작됐는지, 기존 강세장이 이어지는지는 모르겠다고 밝힘. 섹터별 견해: 제약은 좋을 수 있으나 모두가 말하는 섹터라 부담이 있고, 본인은 뉴랜드래버러토리(API) 보유 중이며 제약주 대비 밸류에이션이 낮아 편하다고 함. 통신은 기술 변화(2G~5G, 향후 10G 등)로 기회가 많다고 보지만 바르티에어텔은 현재 가격에서 매수가 불편하다고 함. 기회가 큰 섹터라도 개별 기업이 수직 성장하지 않으면 큰 수익은 어렵다고 강조. 건설 섹터: 과거 낙관했으나 최근 비관으로 전환. GMC Projects를 2019년 매수 후 손절해 큰 손실을 봤으며, 정부 의존도와 긴 매출채권 회수기간(TIS Network 등 수백 일)이 이유. 자신은 외부 변수 의존이 적은 종목을 선호하며, 페이지스(Pages)는 SI(시스템 통합사) 납품 구조로 바뀌어 투자했다고 설명. 가스 유통: 장기적으로 성장 가능성이 있다고 봤으나 특정 기업은 추적하지 않아 언급하지 않음. 부동산: 임대료 인하, 재택근무 영향 등 불확실성이 많아 현재 뚜렷한 견해 없음. 고드레지 프로퍼티는 과거 매수 후 매도. PSU(국영기업): 특별한 견해 없음. 키론을 2019년 매수 후 매도했고, 현재는 불편하다고 함. 미국 주식: 현재 직접 투자하지 않으며, 인도 시장에 더 많은 기회가 있다고 봄. 수다르산 케미컬(2014년 매수, 큰 수익), 글로벌(Global) 등 인도 종목에서 큰 수익을 얻었다고 언급. 투자자 조언: 주식은 돈 게임이 아니라 위험한 사업이며, 투자 전 자신의 심리적 감내력을 먼저 점검해야 한다고 강조. 손절을 빨리 하고 올바른 방향에 있는 것이 손익보다 중요하다는 입장. 출연자 전망 요약: 장기적으로 여러 섹터 참여 강세장을 기대하지만, 단기 방향과 특정 종목에 대한 명확한 예측은 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
What are your assumptions about the new market leaders in the next bullish cycle, if it hasn't started yet? Uh, look, Naj, uh... until 2003, there was almost one leader in every bull cycle. This is what we learn if we study history. There were many leaders in the 2003–2007 bull cycle. There were a lot of leaders, you know, not just one.
For example, the banking sector was a leader, infrastructure was a leader, pharma was an outsider, FMCG was an outsider, right? And some other stocks were leaders, three, four, five sectors. Real estate was a leader, a big leader. So this model has changed since 2003. Similarly, now too, I think, even in 2014–2017 or even after 2008, after the Lehman crisis between 2009 and 2016, many sectors showed good results, such as FMCG, pharma.
Sectors that performed well in 2003–2007 have not shown any success. On the contrary, many sectors are on the verge of bankruptcy, for example, the infrastructure sector, right? Yes, yes. And for some reason, sectors that performed well between 2003 and 2007 showed results between 2009 and 2014 that were not considered a " bull" market.
Yes. So this theory of " bull" and " bear" markets is a myth. Don't be guided by this. If you only look at the index, you won't be able to make money in the stock market. You will not be able to create wealth in the stock market. Yesterday I was just flipping through channels, watching CNN, you know, I do n't remember the quote.
I will give you the gist of it. If you watch CNN, you won't be able to become a good investor. CNN warns the largest channel in the world. One of the biggest channels, getting back to the point, is this: a simple story. It can shine even without light. Back to the main point: regarding the next market, I also don't know if it's a " bull" market or a continuation of a " bull" market.
I don't know about that. But again , I feel that three, four or five sectors will take part, will become leaders. Not just one sector, many sectors will join. OK. Do you have a sense of what these sectors might be , any one of them, any two themes ? Uh, again, since I'm not focusing on specific sectors, you know, individually, for example, pharma should do well.
But everyone is talking about pharma. When everyone talks about one sector, You know, Kay, I don't know, but I still hold Newland Laboratory, it's an API topic, so. But they are much cheaper than pharmaceutical stocks , so I am calm about the valuation. I'm comfortable, maybe pharma should do well, or there are many other sectors, I don't know.
Everyone is also talking about telecom. Are you worried about telecom? Telecom is a concern, but we are still in the early stages because telecom is constantly destroying itself, as we just discussed. Okay, 2G, then 3G, then 4G, then 5G. I read somewhere that 10G is already being tested in Australia and China.
I don't know what they're even talking about, you know? So there are limitless possibilities in telecom. I read it somewhere, right? There is no screen, no background, something that can be seen in the air. So everything we've seen in science fiction movies throughout our lives will all become reality, you know, everything you've seen.
The possibilities in telecom seem limitless, but I don't know, I'm uncomfortable buying , for example, Bharti Airtel at this price. Well, that's my opinion, you don't have to follow what I say, because I'm happy getting my protein from maybe okra, and you're happy getting your protein from chicken. This doesn't mean that I'm right and you're wrong, or that I'm wrong and you're right.
This is a personal choice. So maybe telecom, yes, telecom has huge opportunities . You see, one more point. A sector that provides you with very great opportunities does not necessarily guarantee that all stocks in that sector will be successful. That doesn't happen either, because the idea is to find a company when it's growing vertically, not horizontally, you know?
So when a company starts growing horizontally, it means you won't multiply your money. You may not get 10, 20, 50, or 100 times more; you can only get a percentage profit . This is what I feel. No, that's a very valid point. And I think, hopefully, people will take some of these things into consideration.
Private investors do not necessarily have to outperform the market. It doesn't matter if you have other sources of income or if the money was earned in a year or two, because you don't have to report to anyone but yourself. So , I think that's something everyone should remember. Vijay, you have already touched on this briefly, which is why I am asking this question from Arun R.
He asks: you were very optimistic about the construction sector some time ago, but recently you have become pessimistic. Do you see structural changes in this sector ? Of course. The construction sector, actually, is why I bought GMC Projects, I think, in 2019. Yes. But in the end, you know, I lost hope.
This does not mean that the sector will not develop. Let me say, despite this, the sector can demonstrate good results. I sold my shares in GMC Projects. I suffered significant losses. This is normal . For me, it's more important to be on the right path. Profit and loss are not important to me . Do you think construction is possible?
Why did I sell...if, if Arun means JMC Projects, then I will give a specific answer. Because they're too dependent on the government, you know? Like TIS Network, as you mentioned, accounts receivable is 200 days or more, 150 days or what, 100? 700 days. 700 days like BSNL. So I found that these companies are very dependent on the government, government contracts, NHI, or sometimes something else.
That's why I thought: let's not do it, there are too many " ifs" and "buts", too many uncertainties. I try to find stocks that are not so heavily dependent on these external factors. So you might ask me why I chose them , because they also depend on the government. Now Pages has changed its business model.
Instead of direct orders from the government, they now get orders from system integrators like L&T , which is the prime contractor on government projects, and they supply products to L&T, or sell their equipment to, say, Bharti or Jio. So, that's another reason why I invested in them. Got it. OK. Ahem.
There is a question, I...I will use this question as an example. Ahem. Actually no, I don't want to talk about a front company because it's a stock exchange. So, Arun, I'm sorry, but there's one question I won't ask. However, Mjit Chakravarti asks: what is your view on the gas distribution sector for the next four to five years?
What are your thoughts , Vijay? Have you considered this sector at all? This sector will be successful, without a doubt. True. Eventually, this will reach the second and third tier cities, and the entire country can be connected by this pipeline, etc. So this sector has a good future, but I don't follow any company, I don't know which one will give you more profit and where you are going to make money, since I don't follow this sector anymore.
Good. Yes. Several new investors, which is always an encouraging sign. So, Prince Sharma asks how a beginner should approach learning about the stock markets, and Shivam Cho asks how to choose your first stock. The first action in general. I don't know what the correct answer to this would be. I will say one thing: before investing in the stock market, there is one quote of mine, and I would advise, suggest, or ask all of your small, that is, mostly new investors and small investors, to read it.
Not that I'm praising myself. I say this because all these quotes are based on my experiences, my life trials. And mostly these quotes are only for new and small investors because I am a very small person. I can't teach veterans or big people, successful people in the stock market, so this is only for them, for new and small investors.
Please read them. Now, getting to the point, I think there's my quote, as I said, that before you invest in the stock market, you have to invest in yourself. What I'm trying to say here is: before you learn about the stock market, learn about yourself. Before filling out your KYC, first do KY ( know yourself).
Know yourself, know your mental approach. The stock market is, first of all, a risky business, it's not a game, you know. The stock market will reward you according to your perception. If you consider this a gamble, then it will all become a gamble for you . So, it's a risky business. So first know yourself, whether you are ready to accept such pain in your life or not.
If you buy a stock and its price drops by, say, 20% or 25%, will you be able to sleep peacefully? You know, you have to invest in yourself. What I'm trying to say here is: before you learn about the stock market, learn about yourself. Before filling out your KYC, first do KY— know yourself. Know your mental state.
The stock market is a risky business, first of all , it's not a game, you know. The stock market will reward you according to your perception. If you think it's a gamble, then it will all become a gamble for you , so it's a risky business. So first, find out for yourself whether you are ready to accept such pain in your life or not.
If you buy a stock and its price falls by, say, 20% or 25%, will you be able to sleep peacefully, will you fight with your mother, father or brother, and will it bother you? So first of all you have to educate yourself, and remember that before investing you have to remember, you have to know all these things, that the stock market is not just money, you can't make money out of money .
It's a myth, you know, that your mental capacity is more important than your financial capacity in the stock market. Remember this, you have to have very, you have to have very strong mental strength before, uh, you know, before achieving success in the stock market. Therefore, you must first work on your mentality.
I think you have to, if you really want to make money, you have to sacrifice a lot of things in your life, your own beliefs, your old, you know, everything you've learned in your life, as they say, unlearn and relearn. So everything that you've learned, you put it aside, you throw those things away and try to learn new things.
Therefore, you have to learn a lot before investing . You know, just don't try to get into the market, don't try to get rich overnight. There's a quote from Mas that the biggest market is the reason you want to become an overnight success, or it doesn't happen. Baba read my quote that Rome was n't built in a day, and Nagasaki was destroyed in...
Yeah, so you know, first you have to know yourself right. The important thing, the first stock I would like to buy—safety is very important in this market, remember that, it's a risky business, like I told you, so don't try to be a hero. Don't try to be smart, you know. I am ready to learn, ready to change myself, that is more important.
Of course. No, but yes, but it was a good example. Good. Uh, Pervin, you're asking about the smile code. So, S is small in size. MI is average experience. And then you have, of course, L—that's the big and super-big potential . So, these are big, big in ambition, super big, big in ambition, super big market potential.
Yes. So, I think that should give you the answer. The letter "I" stands for inexperience. Sorry. Average level of experience. Average. M or, I don't know. so that the word sounds appropriate, okay, now they ask, oh, namaste, sir, as Mr. Buffett said, you must be a good reader of books. Please recommend two good books for a beginner investor.
I can probably advise you too . The Gita is one example, but since you are a beginner, I would recommend you a very good book by Monrish called "Investor Dhanda." I think it's a very basic book. So maybe you can try reading it. She is good. Also, you should watch shows like this for an hour. We are trying to teach you a lot about investing.
But yes , Mishra's "Dhanda" is a good book for a beginner. I think she will teach you a lot. So this is a very wonderful book. "Educating the Value Investor " by Guy Spire is also quite good. So you can try it. Vijay, last few questions. Akil asks about the real estate sector, do you think it is severely undervalued?
Any thoughts? I don't think he's greatly underrated. Let me say that I bought shares in Godrej Properties five or six years ago, but unfortunately I sold it, so that's a separate issue. At this point, I'm not very optimistic . It's not that I'm not optimistic, I just don't have any opinions. I'm following this sector, for sure.
But I don't know what's going to happen with all these rental issues, everyone lowering rents, and how working from home will affect residential or commercial real estate. So, there are a lot of "ifs" and "buts" in this sector. I'm watching this sector, but I'm uncomfortable right now and I think I might change my mind.
So I'm sharing with you what comes to mind right now, maybe if I was bullish on the housing sector or the real estate sector and I didn't see any story that would deliver a better return. Then maybe I would consider a housing finance company or a real estate financing company as an alternative. But for now, let's see, I don't have any clear position.
So, Deepak Va asks Vijay what is Vijay's opinion on undervalued public sector undertakings (PSUs). Just think, the price of BML in 2016 or 2017 was around Rs 1800 and the government thought I was going to privatise BML. you are BSNL. So, coming back to this question, PSU: I have no opinion on PSU, although I bought Kiron in 2019, which I also said somewhere on some TV channel etc., which I sold, uh , because, again , I don't know, I don't know.
So, and as I said, uh, I... no astrologer told me that I should have any PSU stocks in my portfolio. So yeah, if I find a better opportunity somewhere else, yeah, where I feel more mentally comfortable, it's really important to be, you know, mentally calm. Your state of mind should always be at peace; remember, this is a mantra.
It's not because of, it's not from, not from this perspective, character and action, that's what I learned, so that's something that can be gained, maybe you can learn it elsewhere as well. So, coming back to this question, I'm uncomfortable with these state-owned enterprise stocks, and that doesn't mean they won't perform well; they can still be successful.
So I, I have no opinion. Ashish asks if Vijay Ji invests in US stocks? US stocks. America. Yes. America, I don't invest in American stocks. I find many opportunities in India. Sorry. No, no problems at all. Yes. NRA, just, uh, for your viewers, three of my stocks gave me a 100x return, not a 100% return, but a 100x return.
Yes, by the grace of God, Sudarshan Chemical, which I bought in 2014, is still giving me 12 times profit. Yes , and in 2018 it was 15 times higher than my purchase price, just imagine. In Global too, at Rs 280, where am I going to find such an opportunity in the US , tell me? I said I had to wait five years.
Just because everyone says so, I'm happy to eat one apple every day instead of buying one. I don't miss any opportunity; This is a myth. Yes, this is for big people, this is, you know, this is managing billion-dollar portfolios; they work better than their colleagues. Mutual fund, one fund is going to perform better than another fund; they have so many options.
So I don't think a small investor should think about investing in the US or not. This is my personal opinion; I could be wrong. I don't think I would invest in US stocks today. I may change my mind, but right now I feel so at ease. I believe that the Indian market will provide you with tremendous opportunities.
Therefore, something else is better. Yes. Expectations from a child who has already been born are greater than those from one in the womb. Good. I don't, I wo n't do that. Good. Last question, and I'm intentionally making it last because I think it's important. There is a gentleman named Arun Chaudhry who asks, he is a Kuwaiti expatriate , and he says you bought JMC.
How dare you take big losses? Because it's not easy and requires a certain mental fortitude. Where do you get this mental toughness or ability to easily take big losses? Because a lot of people will say, I think this is an important question. Yes, it's a myth: being on the right track is more important than making or losing money.
If I go somewhere I'm not comfortable with, or where I think that please remember, I'm not saying as soon as you realize your mistake—you better get out, otherwise the money that I, he, or anyone else has is limited, right? Unless you are managing other people's money. If you are managing someone else's money, you may not be able to easily record a loss because you cannot admit that you were wrong.
I have this freedom, you know, the freedom to cut my losses and say, okay, I made a mistake, but I learned my lesson, even though it's not necessarily true. Yes. So for me it is important to be on the right track and not just to make or lose money and another example for this guy Arun Arun. If I hadn't sold , say, my GMC, I would n't have bought, for example, Z Entertainment, right?
Yes. So that's what life is all about— cut your losses. Yes. This is the idea of realizing your mistake. That's what his question is about , it's very valid, but people don't really think that way. They don't record their losses. They are holding on to their losses. They make it up. This is the path to destruction, the politics of destruction.
Okay, I think that's the most important thing we talked about in this interview. I mean, the audience, it teaches a lot. So I hope you understand that too . I believe it was wonderful. Thank you very much.
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