저자: Kevin · 외국인
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4월 CPI 발표 직후 방송. 헤드라인 CPI 전월비 0.1%로 예상 부합, 근원 CPI도 예상 부합. 주거비가 상승 기여 최대이나 렌트 디플레이션 기대 유지, 서비스 인플레 둔화 확인. 연준 25bp 인상 가능성 우세, 5% 도달 후 긴축 종료 전망. 주식선물 급등 및 'Nike Swoosh' 형태의 장기 회복 시나리오 제시.
다듬은 글
we're now two minutes away from the CPI inflation report the projections are CPI .2 month over month my projection is point one percent month over month CPI X energy and food month of month point of four we are projecting myself I'm projecting point three percent uh so a one-tenth of a percent below both both of those are my projections for the month over month figures the prior report was 0.4 and 0.5 so we'd be coming down with a 0.2 and 0.4 on both of those year over year we're going to see a nice big decline moving from a year over year of six percent to 5.1 percent which is a fantastic drop down uh however core is expected to actually take up slightly from 5.5 to 5.6 so we'll be getting that data within about the next 100 seconds here we're very excited this is a big moment this is a this is absolutely going to give us guidance on whether or not the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by either 25 basis points again or pause this is a very big deal right now the expiration of the coupon code is also set for today we'll be raising prices on that uh tonight now let's go ahead and look at the rate monitor as we get into the next 60 seconds here so the rate monitor puts us at about a 74.7 chance of getting a 25 basis point hike next the Federal Reserve does appear to be split on this 10-year treasuries have come down so that is a loosening of financial conditions though mortgage rates do still remain high at about 6.9 percent for the 30-year mortgage as credit spreads are widening so that's actually a weird phenomenon where you can actually see uh 10-year treasury yields come down but Financial conditions remain tight and keep mortgage rates High For Real Estate uh however real estate inventory has been so low we have not actually seen any kind of uh major pain just yet in real estate okay we are now just seconds away from the CPI data uh within the next 10 20 seconds here we'll have the CPI data we'll be going through the report as well this is a big moment again we're looking for a market is looking for 0.2 and a 0.4 so drum roll and uh stay tuned remember check out that coupon code oh my God it's point one month over month I was right however the core was 0.4 uh so core matches expectation point one on the month of a month let's freaking go let's go uh year over year comes in a little soft as well at five percent as opposed to 5.1 core matches expectations at 5.6 so expectations matched on core month over month and year over year uh however on non-core we got that point one percent and that five percent year over year that's absolutely fantastic uh that's uh that's a sign of not a devastatingly weakening economy it's not a sign that we're in this crazy recession that everything is falling off a cliff it is a fantastic sign that inflation is continuing to Trend down upon expectations we're not getting any kind of crazy uh reanimate nation of inflation here even though uh outside of expectations uh we're not and that's a big issue right we were worried that maybe in this report we would see some kind of massive increase in Services inflation or something uh keep in mind housing inflation is still keeping these numbers really elevated so we're going to take a look at all of that data here but this is a fantastic report so far based on the headline numbers here we're going to get Wall Street reactions here as well but let's get into uh both the report and Wall Street expectations uh or Wall Street reactions rather so let's jump into the actual report and here we go this is the actual report on screen now let's see what we got here CPI Rises 0.1 percent that was my expectation there were only four economists out of all of them surveyed that had that expectations at that expectation over 40 of them interviewed by Bloomberg were looking at point two there's that point four percent Kevin was off on that one by one percent over the last 12 months there's that five percent okay let's go into the actual granular data here so it looks like uh okay here we go here we go here we go uh the index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly increase that's good that's actually a good thing because we do expect that to come down for rents which is good uh however we still haven't seen that come through so there is that risk that what if that rental deflation never comes through that would be a big problem right but we still expect it to come down even Jerome Powell just a few weeks ago reiterated uh that this will be coming uh down we do have uh stock futures jumping the two-year treasury yields are tumbling right now this is fantastic it looks like real average hourly earnings fall point seven percent year over year no wage price spiral this is fantastic uh this is this is really good and this is not like so bad to where all of a sudden we're looking at it going oh my gosh you know we're at the end of the world in terms of depression or whatever uh let's see here shelter what shelter shelter there it is look at that shelter coming in at point six percent uh for the March numbers over here that's telling you remember shelter it was actually up weighted in the CPI re-weightings to about a 34 weight transportation services my goodness coming in at 1.4 that's high Medical Care is not reinflating that's very good uh Medical Care Commodities however a little bit of a Commodities bump over here not so good point six percent it's about 7.2 percent annualized used cars coming in negative point nine percent that's good new vehicles coming in at point four percent let's get a little bit more of a detailed chart here while I also get some more reaction here housing cost was the biggest contributor Wall Street reacting to this we're going to get the detail chart here get a little bit more numbers here while I pull this up remember CPI is uh this is going to be a crazy day I'm getting so many emails for bundle coupons already this morning because on expiration day we go through all the emails for everybody who wants a bundle coupon email us at kevin.com let's go through the actual detailed set here if you want to bundle code as well you can email I want to go right to the end in services this is the most important side okay here we go personal services thank freaking God look at that point two percent let's go let's go no re-annovation reanimation of inflation and services really important point two percent that's 2.4 percent year over year that's great personal care services uh however you have personal Services overall still hot but but kind of a line aligned with Trend here at about six percent so still a little high there but not running away kind of like last month we had that 1.1 that was not great Legal Services finally reducing to about 0.2 last month we were a little high funeral popped up a little Financial Services finally coming down a little bit here kind of matching that previous Trend coming down from these prior higher numbers here we want to see these Services really stable we don't want to see runaway inflation here education services annualized at 3.6 percent postage at uh 1.2 percent annualized that's great telephone services going negative great fantastic photography is going negative okay well sorry photographers okay here we go thank goodness okay this is one place where there could have been lingering inflation and that is in Pets Pet Supply Pet Foods you name it uh thankfully for pet services including vet services 0.5 that's more stable at six percent that's good we don't want to see runaway there video and audio Services still a little hot over here at point nine Rec Services coming in flat good airfares oh my Lord uh that's not so great airfares at four percent uh it's shocking to me how these Airlines can continue to price it or can continue you to pass on these high prices that's pretty remarkable and unfortunately it's just a point six percent weighting but that's still pretty high it is down from last month but we'd like to see that negative Motor Vehicle Insurance uh 1.2 percent for the month that's still way too high Warren Buffett was just talking about how insurance is actually helped by inflation because they can bring in more float which then they can invest uh so Warren Buffett actually cheering inflation for insurance not something we want to hear obviously car and truck rentals down 3.8 percent good transportation services still hot though health insurance thank goodness look at those drops across the board drops here in medical basically Services via uh Insurance hospital and related Services also negative good good good good good Medical Care Services overall negative negative negative negative good Trend here of services this inflation we like seeing this uh this this Falls right into the argument that inflation can end up proving to be transitory especially once we actually get the decline oh it's happening oh it's starting look at this we're getting the rollover here uh somewhat we're finally starting to see it rent of primary residence finally coming in at point five percent uh back to what we've seen previously finally seeing the rent of shelter number overall back to 0.6 off of those really high numbers like that 0.8.7 I think we're starting to lap some of the year over year numbers and month over month we're starting to see a little bit of weakness however lodging away from homes so hotels still explosive growth here in the numbers so still a little expensive however uh rent of of uh your your home is going to be a substantially larger contributor you can see that here owners equivalent rents coming in at point five percent let me quickly see what that point four percent number is that is our fourth number here yeah that is the unadjusted Feb to March number so let's get back over here we're just going to ignore this right here because that's the Feb to March number really you're going to be looking over here that's the last three month Trend and we finally see that moving down a little fine finally that's actually really really good so happy happy to hear this this is good then you've got what do we have here we've got personal care products wow that's still a little expensive a little expensive over here on some of those personal care services uh Services less energy point four percent that's okay Goods goods are still deflating well not I shouldn't say point five percent is deflating but other Goods sitting at point five percent led by cigarettes actually alcoholic beverages away from home point three percent look at this alcohol starting to really come in low in the last two months here deflating probably because Kevin stopped drinking alcohol uh sorry I was contributing to the industry too much and so now now I've stopped but at least we're causing deflation which is good uh so that's a good thing we've got education communication Commodities good nice negatives over here we have toys toys still hot uh oh that's surprising at point seven percent Sporting Goods negative point six percent pet and pet products see look at this still hot over here at pet products that's good for companies like Petco they're still able to pass on they still have pricing power we don't know how long that'll last though given the flat household formations Medical Care Commodities coming in at point six Recreation Commodities 0.2 here we go new vehicles coming in at point four percent Transportation less motor fuels uh zero percent new cars 0.6 new trucks 0.3 used vehicles negative point nine so you're still getting that compression where you've got new coming up in price and used coming down in price uh this is this is fantastic um we're going to speculate on the Federal Reserve in just a moment apparel coming in at point three percent finally softening after that initially warm uh winter that we got in January and February and uh and you started seeing some more of those uh Spring sales pushed forward which are generally higher or more likely to be full price sales tools and Hardware coming in at just point two percent really nicely off that 2.7 from last month fantastic household Furnishings coming in at point four percent still a little high appliances for some reason at 0.7 odd those are going to be like your coffee makers whereas major appliances are still negative they've been negative for a while those more durable goods and then of course if we look at Foods we have a lot more volatility over here food however look at that food inflation zero percent who actually believes that I don't know food's been so expensive you go to restaurants it's just insane right now how's coffee doing coffee coming in at negative point four percent good I need some energy had a nice big drop over here at 3.5 all right let's get a little bit more of um uh the uh commentary here from Wall Street and then let's speculate on the Federal Reserve shall we okay so Chief Economist at Wells Fargo tells Bloomberg TV that while there are pockets of optimism in today's print inflation is still far from two percent you know I'm so tired of people saying this I really think they are just like Bears who don't understand that inflation just has to Trend down to two percent throughout the rest of the decade and it's fine of course it's not going to go oh we're two percent no Sherlock it's just I don't think people realize the FED is going to pull fate out of the genie out of the out of the Magic Hat the bunny rabbit that comes out is going to be uses policies known as opportunistic disinflation to make sure that inflation Trends down over time obviously inflation is too hot at fiv rate increases to accelerate that disinflation but does the Federal Reserve really want to destroy the economy uh in order to get inflation down as long as it is trending down no of course not so could the case be made for a pause here yes do I think this is enough deflation or disinflation should I say to see a pause probably not I would probably go for a 25 basis point hike and that's based on probably the Atlanta fed now real GDP P estimate that is real GDP growth right now it's still expected to be about two percent that means we have plenty of room for the Federal Reserve to increase their tightness on markets I also think there is a large psychological effect to making sure that inflation is indeed uh or proves to be transitory I know everybody makes fun of the Federal Reserve obviously for saying that because they've been wrong for so long and it's likely that they could be wrong again but when we take a look at this right here this is the Atlanta real GDP fed now estimate uh released two days ago which is two days before the expiration of the coupon code given that today is the 12th prices are going to be going up tonight if you want to bundle up for any of those programs whether it' Elite Hustlers make more money as an entrepreneur and employee learn about insurances liabilities LLCs you name it everything linked down below check that out obviously this video isn't personalized Financial advice but I am a licensed financial advisor and run an ETF and have other affiliate links you can learn more about it meet kevin.com some of which are sponsored but let's go ahead and look at this GDP link here what do we have latest estimate 2.2 percent what's important for you to know about this right here is that this is a tool for the Federal Reserve to say hey look if GDP is still trending two percent in our last and in Our Last Summer of economic projections we were looking at GDP at coming in at 0.5 percent by the end of the year we still have leeway to actually raise uh interest rates and I think there's a psychological element to the FED getting to five percent so I think while the odds of a 50 basis point hike are going to fall as a result of this I do believe that we are going to see the Federal Reserve end up uh uh going for a 25 basis point hike I actually think that is a good thing if the FED goes 25 it's a sign that we are further away from recession than people think which is fantastic 10-year treasury yields are falling about seven basis points we're sitting at about 3.36 right now this is reiterating that inflation is trending towards potentially being transitory again I realize that is offensive to some people to say that word because the FED has been wrong so long to your treasury yields now falling about 14 basis points sitting at 3.91 However the fact of the matter is if in a year from now inflation is potentially under Target we will look back and say Yes it ended up being transitory it just took time it took patience and that's probably the biggest thing we could learn from uh from this entire cycle is that every this this whole cycle tends to take a lot of patience now what I really want to be clear about uh is what Wall Street is reacting with so right now it does look like Futures are up about um 65 basis points on the Dow 82 basis points on the s p and 107 basis points 1.07 on the NASDAQ it looks like uh a Powell's favorite inflation measure as of late is the core services in excluding housing came in at point four percent that is down from the point five percent in February but it is still slightly elevated uh that is uh that is still a problem so core Services excluding housing is not running away that's a good sign it's not runaway inflation however we are starting to see a trend down it's just not low enough yet that's okay we know that it takes time for it to Trend down the price of eggs tumbled the most since 1987 down 10.9 percent from Taylor Swift's actually down more probably down like 50 from what Taylor Swift said she was going to help get egg prices down obviously that's a joke uh rates Market is uh is reacting to this this weaker report here however we have the let's see here again core Services X housing up point four percent not fantastic uh but again still trending down so that's called the super core level which does exclude housing just so we could really narrow into Services uh let's see here fed Futures pricing and still rate Cuts till sitting at expectations though for let me look at if we can get an adjustment on the terminal rate here and then let's also look at the five-year break even stand by for that data five-year Break Even data let's see what we have uh and then let's also look at if the terminal rate has started moving so uh slight inflection down coming on the five-year break even for inflation expectations in terms of the fed's terminal rate we are looking at uh Financial conditions by the way also coming down but you would expect that uh less Financial tightness given lower rates here waiting for this terminal rate to load uh terminal rates still pricing at 4.99 no big movement here so still looking at that 25 BP hike but it's it's becoming clear as day that probably going to be at an end of the federal reserve's hiking regime once they get to an even five percent I do again think that is a psychological level that they are going to get to uh and I am not concerned about a 25 BB hike do keep in mind later today the Federal Reserve minutes come out from the prior meeting uh bond market is still pricing in 17 basis points of hikes that is leaning towards 25.
remember what they basically do is they take the average of how much the bond market is pricing at zero and how much the bond market is pricing at 25 that average or the middle the midpoint would be 12.5 basis points right the market right now is pricing at 17 basis points which again leans us towards a 25 BP I agree with that I actually think it is good get to five percent and be done uh markets are let's see here core figure coming at 0.1 percent was fantastic uh that actually matched my estimate perfectly which is very exciting and so uh we're looking at actual Market reactions here I would expect that this very much aligns again with the Nike Swoosh theory if you haven't been watching sort of daily where I've been talking about the Nike Swoosh that's okay I still love you uh but let me make it clear I think the Nike Swoosh is basically where we have a sharp decline in prices uh which we've had over 2012 uh and then a Nike Swoosh style recovery let's show you what that would look like uh briefly this is pretty simple what a Nike swoosh potentially looks like is you have a sharp decline which we had throughout 2012 you bottom out in around October maybe at some stocks you bottom out in July uh in December depending on the type of stock and then you have this this very long drawn out dare I say Nike Swoosh that potentially takes really just the next 10 years not necessarily to get to Prior levels but basically the Nike Swoosh just continues for the next 10 years we had we really start a new bull market era however in the meantime you end up with a lot of this a lot of volatility that creates a lot of nervousness and pessimism each one of these drawdowns will be very painful and people will question is inflation transitory is the did the FED over Titan how terrible is the recession going to be uh who knows but uh my thesis is look for pricing power stocks I talk about those obviously uh and and I put my money where my mouth is you could learn more about those at meet kevin.com you can see the links not only for the courses with trade alerts or the uh the ETF or the affiliate links link down below but this gives a CPI a fantastic uh read on CPI very very excited about this so this is great news uh it it is a little bit of a shocker that it came in low but I'm back on over to Warren Buffett
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