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, July 20th with a midweek , individual names, and then finish off the video with some trade ideas. Now, before we get into things, I want to direct your attention to this nice text right here that I am hosting a webinar next Tuesday. That's July 26th at 100 p.m. Eastern time. It's going to be all about trading strategy and trading setups.
So, these are the setups that we trade every day, the entry, the stop, the trade management criteria. Basically, what we look for in a trade and what our ideal setups look like. So, if that's something that interests you, sign up here, the trader.com/webinar. It's open to everyone. If you can't make the date, I will send you that recording, but only if you're on that list.
So, if it interests you, head on over there and sign up today. Looking forward for uh to that event next week. Now, getting into the markets, we had a nice breakout to new all-time highs today. Closed up 42 basis points in the S&P 500 SPY ETF. And let's take a look at where we came from this week. Now, I put out a post yesterday sort of uh detailing how this week started, but Monday was this bar right here.
Notice it was an inside day into Friday's session. So, Friday we finally had a little bit of a down tick in the market, barely um but closed red. Uh we had an inside day yesterday and you know, we basically had an inside day uh backto back Tuesday as well. You can see we we actually did just barely pierce below Monday's uh lower uh range there.
Uh the lows of the day. 21567 was Monday's low. 26 21563. So it was a 4 cent pierce, but it effectively was an inside day. And when you get backtoback inside days or any inside day really, it usually, you know, it just generally means you're having some dry up in volatility and you should expect some type of expansion out of that range either to the up or downside.
Uh and it should happen at a faster rate of, you know, what we were just previously trading at. And and in this case, uh we did get that nice kind of push to all-time highs today. It wasn't super explosive, but um nonetheless, it was still a break outside of the range. And that what that's what of course helped fuel us higher is is just the narrow range days that we had um previously.
So looking at where we are right now, we are once again and still continue to be in overbought territory as we've discussed now at length. This is the new normal. Um I'm hearing I'm hearing this a lot and it's sort of um it's sort of interesting is is the comment of being overbought. can't buy this market up here.
And it's it's really sort of a narrow thinking. Um you know, markets move in cycles. They move between consolidation phases and then momentum and trend phases. In a very simple highle uh market structure terms, there's only two sort of um cycles that the market is ever in at one time. the fact that we are breaking out of an 18month period of sideways consolidation and moving into a strongly trending momentum environment.
This is now the normal of having an overbought condition and a trend higher. Right? we have persistence of trend right now and this higher time frame structural breakout which is what we've been trying to reinforce for the past several weeks now um is taking hold and and and what that's going to do is give you this type of behavior on the daily time frame where markets don't really care um about being overbought.
They're going to stay overbought. It doesn't I'm not saying that we have to go up in a straight line. The point is you have to be aware that overbought is pretty meaningless in this type of environment. Uh it's only going to keep you out and keep you um not make you know it's going to keep you away from making money in this type of environment because I could have said we were overbought right here.
Hell, I could have said we were overbought in any of these days in here as well. Um and we've just continued to grind higher. So it's not an easy environment. You have to but you have to get involved. You have to look for stocks underneath the surface that are breaking out from actionable bases. And again, this all goes into strategy and time frame and and so on and so forth.
But the point is is we continue to grind higher. Um I don't find this surprising um at this point at all. Um and at some point this will stop for sure. It could be tomorrow. We could see some horrendous gap lower and momentum is is suddenly shifted back to the downside or at least a more neutral standpoint.
But until it does, it pays to be along the same side and in in alignment and direction uh with this trend which is higher. That's the way we've been approaching it. We're on track to have the best month um that we've had since the service started in January of 2015. Um knock on wood now because that that could jinx us into the end of the end of the last week.
But um it's it's been a great week and we've been rotating into names and sticking with this trend and and and continuing to sort of participate. Uh and that's the that's sort of the um thought process that I still have here. Um I'm still constructive. I think now that we have um a breakout to new all-time highs, you can continually raise your stops up.
Uh and in this case, you know, you can use yesterday's lows as a highlevel sort of momentum uh line in the sand right in here around 21550. If we started to roll back over and break below 21550, um that is a very highlevel sort of line in the sand if you like to keep stops extremely tight. Uh where you can start reducing exposure.
Again, that's that's a very tight sort of level to use. But it'll keep you comfortable. It'll it'll help you sleep easy at night if you want to use something like that. Uh then of course you could use any of these moving averages. You could use any of these previous days lows, Fibonacci retracements, whatever you know, whatever you're into.
But the point is again, um you can continue to trail your stop up and mitigate risk um as this market continues to go higher. Buy, but have a plan behind it. So that um that I think wraps up sort of my thoughts here on the market. We're at all-time highs, no resistance above us. You got some levels to use below us that we just discussed there.
Um and I continue to think, yes, this is long in the tooth. Yes, you want to be scaling profits, of course, um, as this continues to grind, but you also want to start looking for new emerging setups at the same time. So, probably repeated myself a bunch there, but hopefully that comes off clear. IWM also moving uh higher today.
Not quite taking out that those previous highs, but pretty close to it. Still battling with this 120 level. We've discussed this area uh quite a bit uh recently. Here you can see it's topped out of the market um many times in the past and has acted as resistance multiple points. Uh and it's still kind of keeping a close heavy magnet on price right now.
But if we see follow through tomorrow, it's going to give a new kind of surge to the market here. If these small cavs can continue to get going, you know, basically above 12040, all of this cluster of highs here that the market's pent up against, that's the area you want to watch. And the cues is what really led us and and we had earnings out last night.
um that certainly could have inspired some of this uh action here, but um continue to to lift higher here. This one's getting pretty extended as well. Nice straight line. It's a scary line, but again, it's that momentum breakout phase. If you go to the weekly chart, you could be coming back in, rallying back to the top end of uh this long-term range up around 115 in the NASDAQ 100, the Q's here.
So that could be your next uh big target and where this market is ultimately heading to test uh in the coming days or weeks. So that's sort of the read there. Everything kind of participating, everything in line. Um not too not too much uh to speak of as far as divergences go across the major indices.
Now if we go to the other major markets, TLT continues to try and hold on here to this support level. You can see this is coincides with this gap higher back from May uh I'm sorry, June 27th. Um and then also, you know, we're below the 20 period EMA. You can see we're about to get a bearish crossover there if price continues to stay depressed weak down here.
Uh you are, you know, in a longer term uptrend. Weekly chart, you're still above the 8 period EMA. Really depends on your time frame and what you're looking to achieve here. Weekly time frame, you're still healthy action. daily time frame, you know, momentum has neutralized a bit here and you're just kind of in a going into a sideways sort of range, seeing if support will hold.
Dynamics are shifting a bit in TLT, so just make sure you're aware of that. USO uh saw a nice rebound today. You know, we did gap below um the this recent support here right around 1070, 1065, 1070 in USO. Uh I know inventory numbers were out. We ended up rallying back to green. That's constructive.
Maybe we we start to hold in here. Uh I do sort of I like USO, but it still looks like it could be a headache. A lot of chop. Um and I don't want to be chopped out of this market. So I'm just avoiding it for now. Um but I do respect at least the rally back to positive today. But I need to be a little more convinced um that we have, you know, a bottom to work with.
8 and 20 still sharply kind of heading lower, making those new momentum lows. So I'm going to just avoid it for now. Keeping my eye on it. could be actionable in the coming days. UNNG, uh, this one is actually cutting through support, finally giving way to that $7, you know, 95 level or so. Um, this one's going to be interesting to see if it just continues to spill over or is this some kind of false breakdown, uh, and tomorrow we see some gap up and push back higher.
Be interesting. It's at an inflection area. I don't see too much just yet, but um I'm keeping a close eye on both USO and UNNG right now because I think they're both at pretty interesting spots. Gold uh continuing to roll over here. If you're a fan of um you know, this trend line extending from, you know, the highs from February here, we're coming coming back to it right now.
Uh really it's this horizontal support as well, 125 where we found some support and it was kind of the top end of this this breakout level back in late June. Uh so just keep an eye on this. This is something of interest. You have this huge gap back here. Maybe that needs to get filled in gold. But certainly some weakness creeping in 8 and 20 starting to curl back over and silver.
Similar situation, different formation, but um, you know, rolling over, taking out some previous days lows. You're going to want to see how this acts in the coming days in both of those metals. And that, you know, in part is is certainly uh commodities are feeling the pressure of this rising US dollar, which is now firmly back above um, you know, this consolidation area.
these lows back from, you know, um, you know, extending all the way back at this 2450 level and and the US dollar at this point could be uh heading back higher in this range towards the upper band here uh in the coming weeks, months um you know to to to kind of round out the rest of the year. So just keep an eye on that.
But that's certainly not helping the commodity case right now. Uh let's look at some sectors. Move into some sectors now. Individual names. Um, so the semiconductors breaking out to new all-time highs today. Very constructive action. They've been very constructive. Couple of days ago, we had this big gap higher.
Um, and it's just continued to move higher like a monster. So, uh, semiconductors certainly a standout. Technology certainly a standout today as well as the XLK breaks out to new all-time highs here. That's constructive. Um, well, not new all-time highs is of course we have the com 2000 up here runup.
um are the all-time highs, but new 52- week highs and and multiple year highs. Uh and then healthc care also extending up here uh taking out some more resistance, extending the uh trend to new highs here for 2016. So XLV, healthcare looking pretty constructive. On the downside, it's just the, you know, the more boring, slower, low beta, uh plays, uh XLP, the staples, which are weakening a little bit, utilities weakening a little bit, but uh all things considered, they're still holding up.
There's a lot of market support right now across many sectors. That's very encouraging uh and that's why part of the reason why we've been so constructive on this market uh for the past few weeks. Now, getting into some of those individual names, Facebook, we'll kick it off here, which is breaking out to new all-time highs today.
They do have earnings coming up next week. I think it's a week from today, the 27th. So, uh there's still about a week or so that maybe this this could squeeze higher into those numbers, but so far so good. tough to buy it here um just because of the way it's lifted uh so strongly in the past three days, but um it's it's at new all-time highs.
That's always a constructive sign. So, Facebook certainly looks good. If you're in it, good, you know, congratulations on that. Uh Google also continues to lift uh higher. You can see it moving back into this previous gap here from late April. Uh this one will be reporting earnings on the 28th next week.
Again, double check these dates, but I believe it's the 28th for for Google. Uh but you can see this one's in motion. You got this big upward bounce up here. Perhaps uh you know, we're we're heading back up to the top end of this range to retest that. Netflix had earnings, you know, got crushed on that, but it did hold sort of right where it needed to.
Take a look at the support going all the way back here. Weekly chart, you can see uh $85 has been important. It's trying to hold it. It had an update as well today. Uh so let's see if it can get back in here and and take a look at how much it can fill of this gap. Really just a wait and see for me. It's tough to to want to get involved in it.
If you're really aggressive, I suppose you could buy it here with a stock below, you know, this this post earnings days low, but you know, I don't know how high probability that is, but something to think about at least define your risk there if you want to play it. Amazon uh also just still lingering at alltime high near all-time highs.
Uh found some support at the 20-day, retested this breakout area. It looks like it's holding. See if this can catch a bid back up to the highs here. I think their earnings are out on the 28th of this week of next week. And uh Tesla, which also uh is staying resilient up here. If you look at a weekly chart, you can see it's rangebound uh in this, you know, 100 point range or thereabouts.
Uh on the daily chart, it's continuing to trend higher. Uh it's above the 8 and 20. I think if it can get some motion above 230, then it has, you know, some room to float. Still is is is a little bit messy. I know Elon keeps tweeting some some you know some of his thoughts and it just seems like you know a messy situation to trade to hold overnight seems high risk um but uh it's it's working itself higher looks like the path of least resistance right now is higher in Tesla so uh just keep those levels in mind.
Now looking at some individual trade ideas, we have Square down here uh which is finally starting to emerge from uh this this this base that it's been in uh trying to you know get some accumulation down here at this $9 level. It it closed higher today taking out the previous making new you know 30-day highs or so.
Weekly chart still certainly concerning but you know you could you could eye this to be one big range all the way down to $850 up to $15. So that's something to consider there in square. Uh Shaq SH AK also had a nice kind of breakout day today as well. 3% to the upside. You can see it broke out of this uh descending little uh this trend line that it that that was took place back from mid 2015.
Um and you can see it's starting to emerge higher in this new type of trend. Shack looks pretty interesting. Uh Under Armour getting a little bit of a breakout today too, clearing this recent consolidation. So, this one looks interesting there on a shorter term time frame. Uh, SHW also breaking out to new all-time highs over the past couple of days here.
This has been in a long-term uptrend for quite a number of years. Uh, and you can see that's continuing. And finally, uh, CSCO, this is Cisco, and this had a big surge today, up 2.37% also, uh, moving back higher to multi-year highs, taking out the highs from 2015. um and and really kind of uh gaining some ground today by the bulls.
So, hope those ideas help. Hope this video helps. Again, uh check out trader.com/webinar. Sign up there if that interests you. And as always, thank you for watching and I will catch you guys next time.
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