저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 S&P500 등 주요 지수가 박스권에서 횡보하며 브렉시트 투표 결과를 기다리는 중립적 국면으로 보고, 일부 개별 종목과 원자재에 대해 기술적 관점의 조건부 관심을 밝힘. [시장 전반] S&P500(SPY)은 하루 0.16% 하락한 평탄한 횡보장이며 이번 주 내내 약 20775~20950 좁은 구간에 머묾. 큰 박스권 약 20375~21000(고점 기준 204~210 부근)의 중간에 있어 방향성 대기 상태. 브렉시트 투표 결과는 영상 기준 다음날 장 마감 후 나올 것으로 예상되며 결과 이후 변동성은 예측 불가로 언급. [핵심 기술적 레벨] 주간 차트상 하락 추세선 저항에 부딪혀 있으며, 209 이상, 특히 210 이상 돌파 시 숏커버링 등 상승 탄력이 붙을 수 있다고 강조. 주간 기준 8·20 이평선 정배열과 저항 아래 바닥 다지기는 여전히 강세 배경으로 평가. 포지션은 약 35~40% 롱 수준. [러셀2000(IWM)] 일봉상 5월 상승 이후 20일 EMA 지지에서 조정·횡보 중. 기술적으로는 SPY보다 약하며 쐐기형 박스권 내 움직임이 당분간 이어질 것으로 봄. [미국채(TLT)] 고점에서 4일 조정 후 20일선 부근 지지가 들어오는 모습. 딥 매수 관심 대상이지만 아직 확신은 부족해 관찰 중이며 장기 롱 트레이드 가능성을 열어둠. [금·은] 금은 주간 기준 강세 횡보 국면으로 보며 일봉상 노이즈 속 횡보 지속 예상. 은도 유사한 흐름으로 봄. [원유(USO)] 1160 저점 부근에서 하락 반전 세팅이 나왔으나 확정되지 않아 숏은 보류하고 관찰. 추세선 이탈 후 재반등하며 방향 대기 중. 석유·가스 섹터는 상대적으로 강세로 언급. 한편 최근 보유하던 롱 포지션(약 720달러 부근 진입 기준)은 차익 실현으로 청산. [달러(UUP)] 2450 레벨이 점차 중요성을 잃는 중이며 달러 지수는 잠재적으로 움직임 여지가 큰 자산으로 언급. 주간 차트상 8·20 이평선 하락 배열이라 약세 형태가 남아 있음. 이번 주 방향 예측은 하지 않음. [섹터] 상대 강세: 에너지(XLE), 주택건설, 반도체(SOXX 계열), 유틸리티(XLU), 필수소비재. 금융(XLF)은 약세 지속이며 약 23.25달러 회복 전까지 매력 낮음. 바이오(IBB)는 지속 하락 후 세 번째 재시험 중인 추세선 지지에 있어 네 번째 지지 여부 확인 필요, XBI도 유사 구간 관찰. [개별 종목] 애플은 주간 차트상 92~93달러 지지 이탈 여부가 관건, 아직 혼조. 구글은 700달러 지지 유지 여부 관찰(770 부근 레벨 언급). 페이스북은 8·20 이평 하락 배열, 116 저항 아래 약세. 넷플릭스는 주간 추세선·90달러 라운드 레벨 지지 확인 필요. 테슬라는 솔라시티 인수 발표 후 약 10% 하락, 피보나치 61.8% 되돌림인 약 190달러 부근을 지지로 보고 홀드 또는 저점 매수 관심. 아마존은 상승 탄력은 잃었으나 견조. 알리바바는 주간 대형 추세선 위 견조. 트위터는 820일선·추세선 위에서 상승 모멘텀 형성 중. [롱 관심 종목] 램리서치(LRCX): 신고가 돌파, 주간·전 타임프레임 교과서적 패턴으로 평가하며 이미 진입 중. 프라이스라인: 1350 저항 근처 돌파 시도, 이번 주 마감 흐름 주목. 엑스레이(XRAY): 신고가 돌파 후 상승 추세, 6450 부근 회복 시 다시 관심. [리스크] 브렉시트 결과에 따른 통화·변동성 리스크 강조, 추가 박스권 횡보 가능성 상존. [출연자 전망] 단기적으로는 중립, 박스권 탈출 방향을 기다리는 관망 태도. 상방 돌파(210 이상) 시 추격 또는 돌파 매매 가능성을 열어 둠.
다듬은 글
[ June 22nd with a individual names and then a few trade ideas at the end of this video we get a lot to cover so let's jump right into it S&P 500 spy ETF closed down 16 basis points today basically a flat lackluster choppy day and it's been like that uh essentially all week so let's take a look at where we came from this week this was Monday's session right here and we started the week off with a nice Gap higher about 1% on the open and you can see we did try and push higher uh on on Monday immediately and that was rejected and we ended up closing near the lows of the session now we still had a 64 basis point update on Monday but we did near the lows of the session and effectively those lows have held since Monday uh and we've traded in this tight range in between 20775 and about 20950 so less than a two-point range and we're just sitting waiting idling here right in the middle of a a larger range that would be that we could arguably call you know 20375 to maybe 210 if you want to use the highs from this recent leg or the swing High here so you'd say about 204 to 210 thereabouts give or point a point on give give or take a point on each end of that so we're kind of in the middle just waiting and seeing now we do have of course the uh much talked about brexit vote that I believe is taking place uh tomorrow all tomorrow the Voting is taking place and I and I believe if I'm not mistaken and I very well could be so don't quote me that the results will come out sometime after the market close tomorrow so it looks like we have probably another day of just sitting and waiting ahead of us um and that's probably going to be uh what we should expect heading into Friday and then we may have some fireworks maybe we don't who knows you know no one no one knows what's going to happen uh after this this vote and decision is made so there's no point in sort of overanalyzing um you know this type of event now the key of technical levels I want to point out and just the structural levels I want to point out you can see here on the weekly chart we still have and we're bumping up against this weekly declining trend line and once again uh this is a high stakes area I'm going to continue to repeat that because if we do start to get follow through higher above 209 and especially above 210 um that can really start to ignite some type of squeeze um sustainable or not uh it's still going to create some type of uh of of of a market movement uh that people are going to either want to chase out of fear uh or it's going to be a legitimate breakout to some type of of big new leg higher so just keep that in mind this is this is still constructive action on the weekly time frame we're above the 8 and20 which are bullishly aligned we're basing underneath resistance uh I still think that's a bullish back drop even though we do have uncertainty and choppy markets on The Daily time frame uh ahead of us so that's the way I'm sort of looking at it it's very sort of neutral here um we have long exposure on ourself uh we're not heavily long I don't know what the exact number is probably around 35% long 40% long maybe uh and that's just the way we're playing it there are setups that are still working there are new 52e highs being made uh and we'll look at some of those later on in the video now if we look at the iwm uh again U not going to spend a lot of time here because I I again comments are pretty similar to the S&P 500 the levels are just different you can see we're range bound technically this is a better looking Market here on the daily time frame you have a cleaner impulse leg higher uh throughout the month of May then we're pulled back to the 20 period EMA and we're finding support and we're kind of consolidating here just like we are in the spy uh just the levels are a bit different The Q's in kind of a different pattern all together certainly the weaker of the bunch we've discussed this now uh for quite some time but this is kind of the way I'm looking looking at it until we get some move out of this which probably isn't going to happen over the next one or two days unless we have a real explosive move um there's just going to be more chop and movement inside this type of wedge triangle whatever you want to call it um you know for the next couple of days or weeks so that's sort of the way I'm looking at things right now if we start to look at some other markets TLT we start there uh is pulling off those highs it's now on a 4-day pullback to the 20 period looks like there is some support coming in today had the nice breakout to start off the month of June here uh so dip buyers uh should be interested in this I'm interested in this almost pulled the trigger today but just not enough conviction doesn't seem like it's a high probability uh you know pullback buy just yet so I'm just watching this but I am interested in the TLT potentially uh for some type of long trade uh we'll go to the medals next gold which is still just doing its thing consolidating sideways uh again weekly backdrop I still consider constructive consolidation uh daily time frame very uh and I think it's just going to be more of the same silver pretty much the same thing um weekly chart I I consider this uh you know in a bullish consolidation phase here after breaking out uh of this little Channel and um it's it's just noisy and consolidating on The Daily time frame Uso this is where things get a little more interesting we had uh at one point a pretty nice looking bearish sort of reversal day set up especially as we were down here below 1170 near those 1160 lows in US o uh and I was excited about it because it was probably going to be enough of a signal for me to jump on the short side here uh but we didn't really get that we got a little bit of a bounce off of those lows and it's just enough that it makes me just want to sit and wait um so we're not in this we're watching it but you can see uh it had this move lower uh below this trend line here and again there's a lot of ways you could probably draw that trend line so it's it's you know again use use a crayon and not uh not a fine pencil but uh we we kind of broke below it and then we snap backed and then it looked like we were basically going to roll back over today but there's a little hesitation here so keep an eye on Uso it seems to be uh struggling here at some type of inflection point maybe it's broadening out to a longer term sideways range we'll have to see what happens un uh this one also staging a pretty nice reversal today it was enough to get us out of our long position we've been in this since about $720 or some somewhere around here um so this was a this was a great trade for us uh you know very easily could have just given a wide stop here and and and and you know try and let this work for us uh for a little bit longer but just you know given the run it's had given there might be some you know especially currency risk event with this whole brexit thing uh in a day or so it's it's just um you know decided to take some Pro take this off uh and just revisit if it starts to act well again so uh un we're out of this but still the trend looks pretty strong here um we'll have to see if it can uh break back below this this $7.90 breakout level that it happened uh last or I'm sorry this Monday so uh that's sort of um that's the oil and gas next let's look at uup us dollar which is sitting here and this again has a lot of potential to move I think this is probably what has more potential to move um although I'm certainly not going to be in the prediction game uh for later this week but um keep an eye on this again 2450 that is slowly starting to morph though this is starting to not be such a control point I probably need to re redraw some of this consolidation but um we'll have to see what happens in uup you can see weekly chart still bearish uh formation in the on the 8 and 20 period moving averages now getting into some of the sector analysis uh real quick here's what's standing out on the upside I'd say XLE uh has been performing well you can see above the 8 and2 uh home builders has still been performing well relative to some of these other sectors it's still consolidating sideways here uh but it's still hanging in there doing decent uh semiconductors continue to be more of a bright spot here you can see above bullish aligned 8 and 20 uh and and xlu and the Staples both still performing well uh consolidating recently but near all-time highs in both of these sectors uh so still staying very firm on the downside uh I just want to point out IBB because this has been hammered for quite some time now and uh we're at some potential support we're at a lower kind of trend line that has held in here for the past three retests and now we want to see can it hold for a fourth time we got a bit of a reaction today it closed up higher on the day I think it was actually one of the best performers on the day uh so that is constructive but you can see big tail on the highs here so keep an eye on this IBB could be close to a trade xbi you know you could look at it similar uh not quite at this lower and but um it's it's near some support so keep an eye on there but it they have been lackluster and financials continue to be the downside laggards as well needs to get back above you know I'd say about $23 at least 23 and a quar to start to look uh more interesting on the financial side now getting into some individual names we'll go with apple uh and this really is just a very noisy mess in here it's just consolidating it's range bound it's messy uh there's cleaner opportunities in my opinion right now I think it is getting close to maybe an interesting uh area down here right around $92 this was the support on the weekly chart from August 2015 from the beginning of 2016 we had the brief breakdown in late May or early May uh which was rejected so keep an eye see if we come back down here to this $93 if it starts to break below there maybe you have some type of actionable signal but for now um it just doesn't it just looks very messy Google also at a very important level here right right around the $700 level uh this has been support now since um since we broke above it back here in on in late 2015 so keep an eye on that 7705 level Facebook also looking a little vulnerable 8 and 20 uh bearishly aligned and um below some resistance around 116 until it gets back above here um bull side is the bull momentum side is still a little shaky Netflix also uh in a tough spot weekly chart you could see uh if you're ing uh some type of consolidation like this we're getting next to this bottom trend line here which is held twice let's see if it happens three times we're at this round $90 level let's see if support comes in for Netflix here and then of course Tesla with the news out that they were that they are making an acquisition bid for Solar City uh Market clearly not liking um that news and uh because of that we're down 10% uh the one stand out I put this chart out last uh night on uh stock twits and Twitter but if you take the 61.8 or if you take this swing leg higher from February all the way to April 61.8% retracement comes in right around 190 we were there last night in the after hours perhaps that's some support you could also take some type of measured move here if you're into those types of things right take the swing leg low um that happened throughout the month of April project it from uh this leg higher here and it does look like we have some fluence coming in here right around 190 so keep an eye on that level more or less um if you're interested in uh a hold or dip buy or any type of trade in Tesla uh finally uh what's holding up is Amazon Amazon's still holding up it's consolidating it's lost its exciting kind of up momentum but it's still holding up all things considered Alibaba this one also very stubbornly holding up underneath this big trend line here on the weekly chart I've talked about this name for quite some time so I won't go into it further and then Twitter also recently has been on the rise it's above the 820 period it's above this trend line starting to see some momentum to the upside um and uh Twitter looks to be pretty good three names that I'll give you on the longside lrcx this is one that we're in we were in we've been in this for a few days now uh breaking out to new all-time highs weekly chart this is picture perfect I talked about this in the broadcast I did last night or uh yesterday rather uh this just looks beautiful here on on basically every single time frame so take a look at lrcx Price Line uh I believe it had an upgrade today but also like this above this 30 1350 level uh you can see this has been a ranged I have to clear up some of these uh lines here but you can see this has been resistance and it's close to it now breaking out some hesitation today but uh see how this closes out the week be very interesting in Price Line and then finally x-ray uh this one also have talked about for some time breaking out to new all-time highs recently and uh it's been in a nice uptrend give it some time it's still consolidating it did pull off those all-time highs uh if it can start to get going above 64 6450 or so uh that one should certainly be back in play so hope this video helps covered a lot of names there uh my dog's been eating in the background if you listen very carefully you may be able to hear that uh so I apologize I don't know how that's going to come out but thank you guys for watching uh if you haven't subscribed to the Channel please do bottom right hand corner otherwise have a great day talk to you next time
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