저자: Evan · 외국인
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결론: 발언자는 단기적으로 약세(하락) 쪽에 기울어 있으나 확정적이지 않으며, S&P500 204선 지지 이탈 여부가 핵심이라고 본다. [시장 전반 - S&P500/IWM/QQQ] S&P500은 금요일 0.87%(약 1%) 하락으로 마감했고, 주간 기준 3주 연속 하락(약 -0.5%)했다. 핵심 지지선은 204 부근이며, 이 선은 지난주 금요일 반등 지점이었다. 헤드앤숄더(머리어깨) 패턴이 S&P500과 IWM에 형성되어 있다고 보며, 패턴이 이탈 시 측정 이동 목표치는 약 198 부근이다. 다만 이 패턴은 모두가 인지하고 있어 역으로 페이크 하락 후 반전하거나 지속형 패턴이 될 수도 있다고 경고했다. 멀린 오실레이터와 내부 지표가 약세 편향을 보여 본인은 약세 쪽에 기울어 있다고 밝혔다. 다만 현재는 2월 저점 이후 3개월 상승추세 내의 박스권이며, 아직 본격적인 하락 신호는 나오지 않았다고 강조했다. QQQ는 상대적으로 아웃퍼폼했고 지난주 저점이 중요 지지선이다. [채권·원자재·달러] TLT(장기국채)는 주봉 기준 2015년 1월 이후 최고 주간 종가를 기록하며 강세 패턴을 보인다고 평가했다(금리 하락 방향 우호적). 금(GLD)은 20기간 EMA를 유지하며 횡보 후 상승 여력을 보이고, 은도 저점 지지 확인 후 긍정적이다. 원유 ETF(USO)는 1150 저항 위로 돌파 시 상승 여지가 있으며, 달러 ETF(UUP)는 가짜 하락 이탈 후 반등 중이라 5월 월봉 장악형 가능성을 언급했다. [섹터] 강세 섹터로 유틸리티(XLU), 부동산(IYR), 에너지(XLE)를 꼽았다. 반면 운송(DJT), 산업재(XLI), 경기소비재, homebuilder 등은 지지선으로 되돌아오며 취약하다고 평가했다. [개별 종목] 애플: 93달러 지지 이탈, 주봉상 저점 낮아짐. 롱은 93.5 회복 확인 후, 숏은 모멘텀상 가능. 넷플릭스: 지난주 저점 이탈, 약세. 80달러 부근 재테스트 가능성, 현재 롱은 비추천. 테슬라: 약세, 205 부근 취약 — 약세 진영이 참고할 만함. 페이스북: 상대강도 강세, 8기간 EMA 위 유지. 아마존: 강세, 680 돌파 유지가 관건이며 조정은 매수 기회로 봄. 트위터: 역대 최저가 부근 박스권, 14달러 아래 이탈 시 신규 하락, 과거 실적발표 후 12달러 거래 기록 언급. [포지션] 롱/숏 혼합, 전체적으로 소량 노출을 유지하며 순숏 쪽으로 기울었다고 밝혔다. [리스크] 헤드앤숄더 패턴의 페이크 가능성, 3개월 상승추세 유지 여부, 경계 전환 시점의 불확실성을 리스크로 제시했다.
다듬은 글
hello everyone this is Evan here from the trade risk on Friday May 13th with a weekend ector analysis and then finish off with some individual names before we jump into the video I just want to thank everyone for those of you who did subscribe to the YouTube channel here uh I was asking for it in the past videos and I got a good number of subscribers there so I want to thank you if you haven't already please do subscribe there keeps the Channel Growing keeps me know that you're interested in it and uh keeps all these videos free so um I do appreciate uh the support and the comments that I've gotten back on these videos so jumping into the S&P 500 uh you know we had a nice little start to the week we had this nice uptick here and then everything sort of just slid down and we closed on the lows we lost 87 basis points almost 1% here just on Friday let's look at the weekly chart before we look at that daily chart you can see we ended up closing down for the third week in a row down just about a half a percent and wasn't quite an inside week because we did kind of peak up and break above last week's lows uh I'm sorry last week's highs just very briefly and then of course those failed we closed on the lows but we didn't take out last week's lows so we still have this pretty important this very important support level right underneath us at 204 in the S&P 500 this is exactly where we bounced last week on Friday and then we saw that initial bounce take us up higher for two days and then Wednesday Thursday Friday we gave it all back and we're quickly coming back into this area so um you know about 5 days in between a second retest coming in and then of course this is where support held back here in April we've been talking about this for quite quite a bit here and it's because it is a very important area uh for S&P 500 right now there's a lot of ground to to to to sort of at stake here uh potentially if we break below this support level now a couple of things to note um I put out a blog post uh earlier today on the trade risk you can read it looking taking a closer look at the Mullen oscillator which has been weak we'll talk about that real briefly uh in a moment uh and I also talked about this this potential Head and Shoulders pattern that's set up here on the S&P 500 it's also set up on the iwm I'm sure I'm not the first person to point this out I think this is a very uh very straightforward uh sort of apparent talked about pattern right now and the issue I have with that is because it is so looked at because everyone seems to know that this is here and we're all sort of you know bracing for impact uh that can play a lot of tricks when you have the majority here thinking well this is probably going to break down I should step aside right now so keep that in the back of your mind this is a bearish potentially has bearish implications Head and Shoulders classic classical topping patterns uh we know what happens you know you can take the measured move from you know from the top of the head here down to the neckline and and project a move which comes down to you know right around 198 I believe or so you know that's traditionally what happens but you have a lot of sometimes false breakdowns and then reversals of Head and Shoulders they can turn into continuation patterns so just be aware of it it don't think of things as a vacuum just because you see this pattern here that can be potentially bearish does not mean it has to happen now I did talk about the mlen oscillator the internals some of those things that I look at to sort of confirm what I'm seeing in the price action and I am seeing uh a bearish sort of tilt there uh giving me that bearish bias in other places so yes I am I am bearishly biased but I am still always going to keep an open mind and keep reassessing as the days uh continuing as this price action unfolds so um that's sort of the way I'm looking at this I I have been bearish basically been writing about the be side for the past since since early last week particularly Tuesdays when I got uh more vocal about it if you go to the trader.com you can see a series of posts have all been on the bearish side uh as far as as far as personal leaning um but again always got to keep an open mind I think before you get too rushed into the beide you have to realize this is still just a trading range that we are in and this trading range is in the context of a uptrend that we have been in for the past 3 months or so G all the way down from these February lows so we started at 180 came all the way up to 210 that's almost 30 points of uh of an increase in the S&P in the Spy ETF and now we are just carving out a range in the top seven points of that almost 30p Point range so you just have to realize we're still in a trading range we haven't got that bare trigger yet we haven't got that big retracement we're seeing signs of softening up here though that's that's sort of um probably the most objective way you can look at this and you just want to stay stay you know kind of alert and open-minded as to what will happen next uh for us you know we've been playing things we' trying to keep things pretty light recently we've had long positions on we've had some short positions on we were long volatility coming into today um that's VXX or actually uvxy is what we we are in uh we were long that coming into today that helped although we did have long positions that got beat up today as well so we did drop some long positions we're probably more net short now uh in fact we are more net short but we have Longs and shorts on and we're just playing it very tactically and very light we don't have a lot of exposure we want to dial things back when we're in these sort of messy sort of indecisive ranges let's look at uh the iwm similar comments here you can see you got the the the the tracing here of Head and Shoulders pattern that could trigger again might be a little obvious to some maybe it won't happen happen like we all expect it to maybe it just has maybe we get one big bounce and then we get some complex right shoulder here and then we roll over again just keep an open mind um but similar comments do apply here for the iwm and then the q's a completely different pattern let me get this line off completely different pattern you can see of course we had a bigger retracement here already take place through uh most of the month of April and then we're just kind of hanging out here um above still you know Friday's low is a bit higher they did outperform relatively uh today the cues that is uh compared to the iwm and the in the S&P 500 so that's interesting slight mild outperformance there towards the end of this week we'll have to see if it can hold up though again critical level will be last Friday's lows right here so uh I think that pretty much sums up everything on uh the the broad Market let's look at some other markets TLT uh we've talked about this nice and bullish starting to Peak poke through the top end of this range here tough to chase given this is such strong resistance but um this is the highest uh weekly close going all the way back to Friday uh on January 30th 2015 um took a lot to get that out there just because it has been such a long time but this is the highest weekly close since that date that's impressive keep an eye on this again we've discussed how this broad pattern here on the weekly and monthly time frame look really strong uh for TLT let's look at gold go back to a daily chart you can see still kind of carving things out here um you know you had the highs back in here put in from March after this nice strong run up in February still consolidating sideways I got to clean some of these lines up but you can see it's basically just an holding pattern here um looks like it wants to go it's staying pent up hasn't lost the 20 period EMA um you know a little bit briefly in here but uh keep an eye on this still looks pretty strong still could probably run silver similar situation still holding a high level base here reversed at the lower end of this range where just exactly where you'd want to see buyer step up that's where they stepped up so silver still looks encouraging uh give this maybe more time to move sideways and hopefully that one can continue um let's look at Uso bullish pattern here as well you can see stubbornly Staying High up here right around this 1150 level talked about this level being resistance back here in late 2015 early 2016 um and and that still seems to have a hold on price not letting it continue further but it's been marching higher still Uso I think if we can get above this week's highs above 1150 it certainly has room to float there's a gap over here maybe that wants to get filled from early December of 2015 so Uso still looks good un uh breaking my heart today on on on uh Friday uh this one we're you know we're still long un we're giving this a little bit more you can see it's still being contained in here it's compressing nicely uh it's been in this tight range for a few months now so let's see how this resolves we long it um but the stop is not too much further lower uh than where price is right now and then uup uh is getting back in here almost looking like a nice false breakdown um and especially on a monthly chart you can see here as it broke down through this uh lower range uh you can see almost uh you could get some type of bullish engulfing uh for the month of May if we do see continuation higher above you know 247 5 or so so keep an eye on that uup getting that strong bounce back let's see if it continues uh heading into next week now looking at some sector analysis xlu this is still where a lot of the action is again back to the boring names utilities they're starting to perform again iyr also performing pretty well came off a little bit from the highs but still all things considered holding uh the 20 period EMA 8 period 20 period still in bullish alignment so still like the iyr and to a lesser extent XLE I'll put in here as my top three again still maybe a little more vulnerable certainly more than the last two but um looks decent of course this is tied closely and hinged on oil so keep an eye on both of those if if you're looking at XLE now if you look at some of the laggards it's pretty much everything else especially after the past 3 days everything started to unwind uh the iyt uh Dow Jones Transportation average we don't talk about this one much um and it's probably cuz I don't chart this one enough and I and I probably should uh but you know certainly rolling over here pretty hard um for the you know strong Dow theorist here this is an issue took out the lows back from last Friday and it's leading on the way down that might be concerning to some xli Industrials uh trying you know right back to to past Friday's lows but this is looking sort of vulnerable here as it comes crashing back down on support discretionary taking out last Friday's lows home builders um a lot of these some of these individual names really taken out to the Woodshed today on Friday but you can see coming back down uh to to this big support level so really you know not a whole lot xlp got hit on Friday so a lot of these sectors um at least you know look vulnerable if not they're coming back down to support and we need to see what's going to happen with a lot of them uh let's look at some individual names Apple broke some important support this week below $93 this is where we found support back here earlier in 2016 this was also the flash crash lows from 2015 price hasn't been this low since mid 2014 in apple if you go to the weekly time frame you can better see lower lows and lower highs in the process here on the weekly chart very clean very orderly um and you need to be concerned here as you fresh as you as we just broke uh support fresh support here and uh the the the weekly time frame here looks a little vulnerable I would not want to be trying to get long this if you want to get long this I I would much uh prefer that you wait for a recovery of 9350 if we can somehow turn this into a false breakout I'm sorry breakdown and get back above some of this resistance let these moving averages catch up get back above here I would you know then you have a well- defined risk to reward um if you want to own Apple then you can trade right against the lows here from the false breakdown uh otherwise I think you need to be careful you can still you can short it for sure momentum is to the downside that's the way I'd be looking at Apple right now Netflix also another one that looks concerning took out last week's lows again when we were looking at those indices a lot of names and a lot of those indices we're holding last week's lows we were above last Friday's lows Netflix is one that is below last Friday's lows that is concerning you can see on the weekly time frame uh more of just a messy trading range that this has been in uh certainly a big mark down here right around $80 this was the pivot from earlier in 2016 probably want to go back down there and retest that to see if it's still support and Netflix got to be careful there again not one I would want to be jumping in on the bull side just yet Tesla looking also very vulnerable this had it slide lower from um you know running up leading up to its earnings release and then as the earnings came out uh it didn't do a whole lot so you can see it's it's very weakly hanging in here and these lows right around 205 we're making this um susceptible for more momentum to the downside another one that you Bears might want to jump on board of because it does look vulnerable for lower prices let's talk about something differently on the upside Facebook looking strong still uh didn't really you know didn't manage to hold gains today but still holding above the 8 period EMA it's still had an inside day and held above yesterday's lows that's constructive Facebook still showing uh relative strength one of the best out there the only one uh that's probably outmatching it is Amazon although this one was a little bit weaker here on Friday and took out Thursday's lows but still just been a monster recently certainly deserves uh you know to come back in here and rest some if it needs to uh the breakout from 680 or so is basically where you'd want to see this hold uh for you bulls and if you're interested in getting in this name uh you should be watching this closely I'm watching it closely uh because I think any pullbacks right now are going to be a gift in Amazon uh so keep it on your watch list and then finally uh let's look at Twitter uh back to the be side also looking very vulnerable here at alltime lows just basing out looking pretty heavy uh particularly yesterday Thursday was when um you know we really saw that push back down to the bottom end of this Range Friday we managed to hold on to this level but really below $14 and taking out this little pivot low here at at um $ 1391 which is the alltime low print uh in Twitter that's uh that's that's where you're going to be looking for a new fresh breakdown and I know on earnings I was watching this on earnings I believe it was this earnings release Here we did trade I think we even traded 12 handle on on earnings post Market um I'm not sure I I'd have to look back but um I know I know there was some trading that took place there after hours um on that last earnings release so uh perhaps you know that's an ultimate Target retest level uh that the market wants to get to and uh that's it that's all I have for today on this weekly recap I hope everybody had a great trading week as always thank you for watching and I will catch you guys next time
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