저자: Evan · 외국인
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결론: 진행자는 S&P500이 207 지지선 이탈 후 단기 약세 전환 가능성을 보며, 1~3개월 방향은 뚜렷한 상승 근거 없이 하락 쪽에 무게를 두되 203~204 지지 재시험과 주간 205 종가 여부를 관찰하자는 입장이다. [시장 흐름 요약] 5월 3일 금요일 S&P500(SPY)은 4월 중순 돌파 구간인 207 아래로 밀렸고, 월요일 반등 후 화요일 갭다운으로 흔들렸다. 수요일(5/4) SPY는 56bp 하락해 전일 저점 근처에서 마감했다. 최근 야간 갭이 과거 20센트 수준에서 1달러 안팎으로 커져 시장 환경이 변하고 있다고 봤다. [기술적 판단] 진행자는 SPY 20일 EMA 이탈과 8·20일 EMA 데드크로스를 근거로 중립에서 보수적 입장으로 이동했다고 설명했다. 207 위 회복 전까지 비관적 시각을 유지하며, 203~204(4월 초 지지) 재테스트 가능성을 언급했다. 주간 차트에서는 205 종가 이탈이 추가 하락 신호라고 봤다. [지수별 레벨] SPY 상단 207, 하단 203~204 및 350 부근 언급. IWM은 111 돌파 구간 이탈 후 108이 주요 자석 구간으로 지목됐다. QQQ가 가장 큰 손상을 입은 지수로 꼽혔고, 2월 저점~4월 고점 랠리의 38.2%만 되돌려 아직 건전하다고 평가했다. 50% 되돌림은 약 103.30 부근이다. 연초 성과는 SPY 약 보합 또는 소폭 플러스, IWM 소폭 마이너스, QQQ 약 5~6% 마이너스로 언급됐다. [기타 자산] TLT(장기 국채 ETF)는 127 지지 후 횡보 채널 중간선 복귀를 기대. USO(원유)는 일부 익절 후 나머지 포지션이 손절됐고, 20일선 위에서는 건전하나 상단 모멘텀은 약화됐다고 봤다. UNG(천연가스)는 바닥 형성 가능성이 있으며 7 상회 시 긍정적이다. 금은 갭 메움 중이나 구조는 건전하다고 평가. 은은 주간 대폭 상승 후 8일 EMA 조정 중이며 건전하다고 했다. 달러 인덱스(UUP)는 반등 중이나 저항이 많고, 2450 상회 시 가짜 하락 돌파였다는 해석이 가능하다고 봤다. 섹터는 유틸리티가 강세로 최근 고점 재접근, 필수소비재도 긍정적, 헬스케어는 약세로 하락 전환, 주택건설·금융·에너지는 약세 우려가 있다고 언급했다. [개별 종목] 애플은 90달러 지지 이탈 여부 관찰이 필요하다고 봤다. 알파벳은 700달러 지지 방어 중. 아마존은 견조하며 갭 방어 중. 페이스북은 116 하방 지지와 118.5 상회 필요. 트위터는 6% 반등했으나 기술적 손상이 커 이중바닥 가능성만 열려 있다고 했다. 테슬라는 장후 실적 발표 예정이며 시간외 가격이 전일 종가 수준으로 회복되었다고 언급. 알리바바는 특이사항 없음, 고프로는 실적 발표 예정이나 최근 1년간 실적 반응이 나빴다고 평가했다. [리스크] 진행자는 시장이 단기 변동성에 들어갈 수 있다고 보며, 포지션 축소·손절선 타이트하게 조정·유연한 대응을 권했다. 자사 SPY 숏 포지션을 보유 중이나 고수하지 않는다고 밝혔다. 207 상회 회복 시 비관론은 무효화된다. [출연자 전망] 1~3개월 기준 SPY·IWM·QQQ는 단기 하방 리스크가 크다는 견해로, 하락 쪽 확신은 중간 수준이다. 장기 전망은 명시적으로 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
hello everyone this is Evan from the trade risk here on Wednesday May fourth with a sector analysis and then finish off with some individual names let's jump right into things today SP 500 closed down 56 basis points this is the spy ETF you can see we closed exactly where we open which is just below Tuesday's lows yesterday's lows so let's take a step back talk about where we came from remember Friday let's start here Friday was the day where we saw follow-through from Thursday sell session and and we actually broke through some some support right around 207 remember this was the breakout area from late April mid-april the market then broke below it this was the the breakout level also the 20 period EMA so there was some significance to breaking below 207 that happened Friday but you can see it wasn't without a fight by the Bulls because they did drive us off those lows and we talked about that in last weekend's market recap video and we said we would be looking into Monday session to see if it could kind of set the tone to which way this market really wants to go and monday we came in with that bullish tone we got to hire almost above the highs here from friday and we closed strongly that was constructive although we didn't know that the internals the breath the support underneath the hood of the market wasn't all that strong and convincing that wasn't a ton of energy behind monday's move and lo and behold the rug did get pulled from underneath us because tuesday we had a gap lower basically gapped below tuesday's entire session entire trading day and once again not without a fight the Bulls did drive us higher off of the lows here yesterday from that mid 20 five levels and then again we saw follow-through again with another gap so we're starting to get a lot more gaps with some overnight movement that is different that's something that we haven't seen in quite some time remember this uptrend as both has mostly been pretty kind of a lackluster grind higher now you're starting to see us break through some minor support we're below the 20 period moving average which we haven't been since februari and we're also starting to get some of these overnight gaps that are that are more than just twenty cents like we're used to there's starting to be a dollar or so in the spy so we need to be aware of that that the market environment is changing just a little bit here at the very least I think you need to just be aware of it be more neutral tighten up your stops whatever your processes and trading strategy is just make sure you adjust accordingly and realize the environment that you're in for us we do have a spice short on right now that we got into yesterday we're not you know completely married to it we're trying to be nimble we know it's going to be some back-and-forth action here but for now I think as long as we're below 207 that keeps me in the more of the pessimistic side you can see we're starting to get a bearish cross over here in the eight and twenty period emas that I look at and use for my trading so that is a bit of a concern here and I do think we have this pretty this pretty telegraphed support here right around 203 sorry two or three 50 at this 204 level that held his support through beginning of April I suspect that that wants to get tested a little bit more convincingly than we did this morning at the lows of today's session you know typically markets like to come back and challenge old levels make sure that they're still good that the buyers will show up again so you know keep an eye out for this area here in the coming days to potentially get tested or undercut and again it doesn't matter what I think the markets going to do what it's going to do but it's just a key level a big level once again I think many people would look at to see if we head down there and see how the market reacts so to sum it all up actually one last thing here we'll go to the weekly chart you can see we are we're right at last week's lows here and we're right at the flat kind of eighth period EMA on the weekly chart so you can see right a bit of a high level of support here on the weekly chart I think if we close below 205 then you know perhaps that does signal that we do have a little more in store for us to the downside again we'll just have to take it day by day and see how this market all shakes up you can see again the Bulls aren't giving up easy with a lot of these tails on the bottom of these past few cell sessions so let's see how it all progresses 207 on the upside to 0 for 2 20 350 on the downside that is the immediate range that I'll be watching iwm you can see rolling over here just the same fast moving average is starting to curl back over we're back below this 111 area that the market broke out of in mid-april similar look here to this I mean similar concepts here in this in as we just discussed on the spy although the levels are certainly different back down here is the key level 108 this was the major level going back multiple years this is also where we found support back in the beginning of April so this might be a big magnet down here right around 108 let's keep that level on watch and then finally the Q's the most damage out of all of these major indices and actually let's take a look really quick here on the fib retracement to see where we are so basically from the februari lows all the way up to the April highs we've now retraced only 38.2 percent of that complete rally so still all things considered pretty healthy give back at this point if we were to retrace fifty percent that would come back down here to about 10 3 30 again healthy markets can still easily retrace fifty percent so just keep that in the back of your mind but certainly you know the eight and twenty cross happened a lot sooner in this and in the cuse and it continues to trend with bearish momentum and bearish aligned fast moving averages so the laggards still the cues and the IWM starting to you know I WM and spy gets arguably still in similar positions performance wise i think the spy is still up on the year maybe it's about flat and I think the IWM is maybe down just a little bit on the year as opposed to the cues which is down five or six percent on the year so let's move into some other markets your TLT continues to sort of grind higher in this sideways channel here found support at 127 heading back to the midpoint of this range let's see if these if the eight and twenty can curl back over to the upside and we can head to the top end of that channel of that range USO feeling a little bit of pressure as of recently we had this three-day pullback that was enough to get us out of our trade you can see it did hold in green today but still still struggling not not very convincingly with today's session we got involved in u.s.
oh right here on Tuesday we sold out half we managed to get near the highs of the day here on Friday for half of our profit half of our position off in profit and then we got stopped out of the remaining here on yesterday on Tuesday so nice little win for us I would have liked to see it you know catch its footing a little sooner to get a little more out of this trade but we'll have to let it pass for now still healthy as long as it's above the 20 period but certainly lost some of its upper level momentum so we'll move on keep an eye on it though think as long as it can hold above today's lows I think that's constructive get back below 1060 and that gets a little more concerning UNG you can see starting to perk up again this one's been all over the place still just range-bound and choppy but I do like the potential and the action here for a longer-term sort of bottoming formation that that is trying to occur here in UNG if you can get back above seven and actually hold above their think that would be constructive looking at metals gold giving some back today fill the gap here from last friday still looks constructive All Things Considered weekly chart you can see just working off this massive expansion bar that we put in of almost five percent last week silver a similar situation pulling back now to the eighth period notice it's pulled back three days and still just challenging now the eighth period EMA so a lot of strength here and silver healthy action to be pulling back like this have to see what comes of it uup US dollar this one getting a nice continuing its bounce higher off of yesterday's a little reversal I'll have to see if this comes back in and tries to maybe fill the gap hear back from last Friday and also challenge them these fast moving averages it's below major which would now be considered and it's likely to be resistance certainly below a lot of overhead supply here so it's going to be troubling here for the u.s.
dollar to get back up of you know above these recent highs but or these recent levels not recent highs but if we can get above 2450 here if the market does rally back above here then we do have some major sort of false breakdown that just occurred here in the US dollar if it can get back above 2450 keep that on watch in the coming weeks let's get into some of the sectors here really utility is just such an absolute standout this this is proved to be such a just a fake-out kind of shake out of these weak Long's here on this double day Wednesday Thursday of a couple of weeks ago the markets just continued to grind higher hasn't been a red day since actually that's that's a lie we did up a couple of red days but forward progress made on every single session since this doubleday wash out here so almost back to New recent highs here you can see reclaim resistance trying to get back above this level here pneus and it successfully did so that's very constructive in Excel you the staples similar situation not as bullish but trying to work above this big washout that it had these defensive sectors had just of just a couple of weeks ago so very constructive there on the downside they're starting to pick up now the number of sectors that are performing on the downside bearish parish ly performing is starting to increase health care has been in trouble as of late it's below all of its fast moving averages coming back down here to its old breakout level that's you know I BB as well you can see giving up this breakout starting to act pretty nice pretty bullish here just a couple of weeks ago when it broke through in the beginning of April with this nice expansion bar that's giving it all back just moving sideways back in this old range XL be the home builders giving it up a little bit recently here coming back down to a big level if you go to the weekly chart you can see this this area right in here right around 45 75 or so had kept a lid on price we're coming back down to test that financials a little bit weaker starting to roll over an energy especially has been getting hit as of recently so a little bit of concern there as far as breath goes that's what we've been noting and also another little you know another little kind of plus to the bear case right now in the short term that this markets in for some near-term turbulence let's look at some individual names apples start there you can see it did sure it did find support kind of right where you would expect it to right back down here at these old levels let's see if they can hold we did get a bounce nice like one day bounce let's see if we can get any more than that though it would be a concern if we just immediately came back down here and started slamming against these lows once again there's probably a lot of air underneath here as we start to get below ninety dollars if Apple does start to break that support level this week slows Google hanging in there as well this one trying to hold on to this bottom of support down here right around seven hundred dollars amazon holding up pretty resilient all things considered flat on the day today fast moving average is starting to catch up gap so far has been defended that's constructive facebook even more constructive than amazon so far this gap has been held in there 116 on the downside that level needs to hold and then on the upside you probably get us some type of momentum trade here if you can start to get back above 118 50 or so on facebook twitter catching a little bit of a bounce today up six percent that's constructive however the technical damage that's suffered here is still pretty immense it still just needs more time repairing you know it's going to come all the way back up here and challenge the gap up here right around 15-30 until it fills it until it gets back in this old range i got to be careful here in twitter potential nice double bottom though based on the lows here from februari and then this week lastly let's look at tesla which is reporting earnings out after the bell and as I look at it here to 34 is where the print is this is about at 425 Eastern so we'll have to see if it actually maintains there so essentially it just looks like it it recovered today's sell session and it's back to yesterday's closing price I mean again we'll have to see how it actually opens tomorrow morning once the conference call and everything else gets underway and digested but so far it looks like it's all probably about four percent exactly what it lost in today's session and I think that'll do it alibaba nothing too much interesting happening there go pro this reports earnings I think tomorrow it's at the lower end of its range here again this thing's been crushed for the past many months let's see if it can finally get an earnings report that it responds favorably to I don't think it's you know it's almost never I mean it certainly hasn't had that happen going back almost a year now so we'll have to see if that changes heading into tomorrow so that's what I have for today I hope you guys enjoyed again if you like the videos please do subscribe bottom right hand corner as always thank you for watching and I will catch you guys next time
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