Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole Rescue: Small caps surge, market reversal - Stock Market Weekly 8/22/25

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파월의 잭슨홀 발언 이후 시장 반등, 소형주(러셀2000) 주도 로테이션 지속 주장. SMH 2024년 고점 지지 여부가 핵심이며 S&P500은 전고점 근처. 비트코인은 110~111달러대 지지 확인이 중요하다며 본인이 롱 보유 중이라고 언급. 엔비디아 실적(예상 변동폭 약 7%, 160~190 범위) 전 주의 변수로 제시. 전반적으로 'Risk On' 유지, 현 상황에서 가장 어려운 매매는 롱 유지라는 견해.

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01. Hello and welcome back to Stock Market Weekly. I'm your host, Evan Medeiros. This is the show that breaks down the notable moves across financial markets through the lens of technical analysis, and we do it in 20 minutes or less every single week. Thanks for being here, and thanks for joining on this summertime weekend.

02. I'm off camera today, but we've got plenty to talk about. It was an eventful week, to say the least, so let's get right into it. First off, our sponsor, IBD, Investors Business Daily. You'll find links in the description of this show. As soon as you're done watching, you can check out their Market Surge and their IBD digital subscription, and you'll get introductory savings on both platforms. Check it out once you're done with this episode.

03. I'm going to take a slightly roundabout way of talking about this week's action. Coming into the week, we were seeing weakness across the board, and we were starting to see some of the defensive areas of the market firm up. Let me pull up my drawing tools. Consumer staples, XLP, was starting to firm up in a nice, tight, orderly base. We had a nice higher low, and it looked primed to move throughout this week. Then we got hit with Target's earnings. Target has been in a bit of a doghouse for quite some time for a variety of reasons, and reporting earnings certainly didn't help. We had a gap down and some penalty-box trading, and then Walmart reported right after, the very next day. Walmart missed on EPS as well. It did raise its outlook for the full year, but the stock still got penalized, and the consumer staples defensive area of the market was left without that strong breakout.

04. Meanwhile, on the other side of the risk spectrum, we had semiconductors. I posted this chart on X earlier, and it highlighted the fact that they were starting to roll over and fall back toward the 2024 highs. I put out what you might call a line in the sand: this week's close would be important for SMH to stay above those 2024 levels. All the while, the S&P 500 was selling off incrementally, from last Friday through Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, right up into Jackson Hole.

05. That's where we got the soon-to-be-famous Powell pivot coming to the rescue. This market was on edge, a little jittery, maybe overextended, and Jerome Powell came in and swept away the concerns. The Fed is now citing concerns over slowing economic growth and potential labor market weakness. The big shift was returning to a flexible, forward-looking inflation-targeting model, leaving behind the "wait and see, wait for the data to hit 2%" posture. The market loved it. Of course, this is summertime trading, so things move quickly. It takes fewer dollars to move these markets around, and we had just come off a four-day selloff, but markets responded in kind.

06. Here's the Russell 2000. Breaking out, and doing it on some pretty heavy volume given the seasonality we find ourselves in. This was the intraweek slide, then a nice higher low, and then off to the races. Small caps led for the second week in a row. This is small caps relative to the S&P 500. I know it's hard to see. This chart looks back over the past five years, essentially plotting daily relative returns, and you can see today was a very meaningful day, a surge of more than two standard deviations in the Russell relative to SPY. To add some color, this is the year-to-date performance of SPY versus the Russell 2000. The Russell is still lagging, up less than 7% this year, but it's catching up quickly. This rotation into small caps, which we identified last week, is getting some legs. This is a second week of follow-through and outperformance, so there's something a little more durable and sticky behind this rotation.

07. Meanwhile, the old, boring Dow Jones is breaking out to new highs, with a great-looking pattern. There's a big, serious base and accumulation that's been building since late 2024, breaking out this Friday on heavy volume. We've talked about international stocks multiple times this year. I'm using ACWX as a proxy for international markets outside the United States, the blue line on this chart. It's up almost 24% year to date, versus SPY up 11%. So again, there's some stickiness here, even in the face of all the strong-arm tariff rhetoric plaguing the world. Those markets seem to be doing just fine outside the United States, so the good run in international stocks continues. And here are gold miners. We've been broken-record about gold and gold miners throughout this base, and now you can see them making a second push up, with a small consolidation above the base, making new highs.

08. All in all, life was pretty good this week. If you could make it to Friday without getting stopped out, or if you reduced risk and the anxiety heading into Jackson Hole, you certainly came out of the week feeling a lot better. Here's the weekly scoreboard. Small caps were at the top again, up 3.4% for the second week in a row. The Dow Jones took second place. SPY finished just barely green, but that's a good recovery after its four-day selloff. The NASDAQ 100 couldn't quite get green and still finished down 1%. This is the V-shaped recovery in SPY into the close of the week. Here's SPY over the summer trading since the end of June. Friday was again the big spike, and the technical picture still looks pretty strong.

09. One of the themes we've been trying to illustrate over the past few weeks is this: while lots of people are getting bearish and uncertain about this market, for very logical reasons, I think the hardest move right now is to stay long. That's the pain trade, and it's hard to do, because there are real risks out there. But these trends are still holding up. Yes, we're getting brief periods of selling pressure, and yes, some individual stocks have been hit much harder than this SPY chart shows. If you go out to some tech stocks, or even some crypto-related stocks, they're down double digits. But in aggregate, the Mag Seven and the market-cap-weighted names, along with some small caps, are still keeping things alive.

10. From a technical perspective, I think you have a new higher low to use, roughly this week's lows from Thursday. If we stay above Thursday's lows, then if you're an active, tactical trader, I think you just have to stay long and keep a foot in the door before it gets away from you. If we start breaking below Thursday's lows, there's some risk management to do. The big level, which we talked about last time, is the 620 area. I think that'll be the bigger intermediate-term shelf, and we may stay range-bound for the next few weeks. Seasonality isn't our friend right now. This is generally a weak period for the market, so this might be a fakeout. We try to push up, we fail early next week, we come back down, and we chop it out. Again, that would generally be healthy, as some rotation and consolidation happens. But the case for being outright bearish is a little tough to make if you're really listening to the price action.

11. This is the NASDAQ 100. Our price action analysis is coming up back to back. We got a nice higher low on Thursday, a potential higher low, though it isn't confirmed yet. Notably, there's some more weakness here. Look at the SPY chart: SPY made new all-time closing highs on Friday, but the NASDAQ 100 is certainly off those highs. That's a little negative divergence, which suggests technology is weakening just a bit at the margin. That's something to watch. But broadly speaking, we held the critical levels. I think 550 or so will be a good intermediate-term line in the sand. Maybe we chop around for the next couple of weeks into September, but for now the big correction has been saved. Anything can happen, but price action so far is still hanging in there.

12. The VIX rose all week into the event, then plummeted to around 14, and I believe that's a new year-to-date closing low. It's been sloping down and grinding lower in a channel. The dollar got absolutely hammered on Friday, a big one-day move. That speaks to the commodity action we saw in gold, oil, and crypto, with the dollar falling off a cliff. The 10-year Treasury yield also moved lower in lockstep, at 4.26%. Not quite at cycle lows, but rolling over, and we're clearly in a series of lower lows and lower highs.

13. Sector performance was again strong across the board. Energy, real estate, and materials were the three biggest gainers. Those are different groups, which reflects the small-cap strength we're seeing. It isn't just tech and communication services. Some of the NASDAQ underperformance shows up here. As rates came down, some cyclically tied, real-world economy names and less-profitable companies got pushed higher this week.

14. On our Smart Trend Filter, which is our indicator built for TC2000 and TradingView users and available on our website, four sectors are in a clear bullish state. It looks at price, volume, and the relationships between price action over time. There was some damage or weakness from the beginning of the week through Friday. The four strongest coming out of the close are healthcare, staples, materials, and communication services. Materials is the interesting one, because it's the first fresh buy signal we've had there in quite some time. Staples and healthcare have been working recently, and communication services is still working. Nearly everything else is neutral. Most of this will likely turn bullish early next week, as long as that strength holds. The selling pressure earlier in the week penalized our outlook on some of the other sectors a little.

15. On 52-week highs and lows, this doesn't include Friday's data yet, because I recorded this before the final numbers came in. I'll be very interested to see next week's version. I'm expecting a good uptick in the number of stocks hitting 52-week highs. I'd be curious whether it takes out the highs from August 15th, when we saw that nice push. I suspect it will, and if we can get more breadth thrust underneath the hood, that would be very positive heading into September.

16. Bitcoin, on the three-month chart: we came back down and challenged the late-July lows, then held and pivoted. Friday's candle showed a nice range expansion to the upside. It looks like a double bottom could be in place, and that's the level bulls will want to defend. I think it's an important spot. I've been saying 110, and it got down to about 111 or so. I don't want to see it fall much further. I really want this low to hold for Bitcoin, because I think it's structurally important. We'll see how it moves forward. I'd be surprised if it just goes off to the races here, since there's still overhead supply and a couple of failed breakouts.

17. Bulls는 조금 숨을 고를 필요가 있다고 생각하지만, 이 지점에서 버티는 건 괜찮은 흐름이라고 봅니다. 몇 주 정도 횡보하다가 다시 고점을 향해 가는 모습이 나오면 좋겠고, 그러면 저에게는 꽤 강세 신호로 보일 겁니다. 저는 여러 트레이딩 시스템과 계좌에서 여전히 비트코인을 매수한 상태입니다. 이 흐름이 버텨 줄지 지켜보겠습니다.

18. 이번 주에 이더리움도 짚고 싶습니다. 이더리움은 2022년 이후 사실상 하락 구간에 있었는데, 드디어 2022년 수준 가까이 다시 올라왔습니다. 공식적으로 돌파했다고 봐도 될 것 같고, 잠깐 역사적 신고가를 건드렸을 수도 있습니다. 주봉 차트를 보면 꽤 건설적인 모습입니다. 비트코인 지지자들은 이 얘기를 싫어하겠지만, 지금은 이더리움이 주목받을 차례인 것 같습니다. 여러 기업들이 이더리움을 재무제표에 담으려는 움직임도 보이는데, 결과가 어떻게 될지 지켜봐야 합니다. 저는 이더리움에 특별히 걸어둔 포지션은 없습니다.

19. 주식 쪽에서는 몇 가지 종목을 소개하고 싶습니다. 이 종목들은 저희 모멘텀 트레이딩 모델에서 나온 것입니다. 저희가 몇 달 전에 출시한 Quant Rockets 기준이고, NXT는 전에 이야기했던 종목입니다. 한 번 매매했다가 여기서 손절했는데, 지금 다시 모델에 들어왔습니다. 그래서 흔들림이 좀 있었는데, 기술적으로는 꽤 괜찮아 보입니다. 가격이 과도하게 늘어난 상태도 아니고, 패턴도 좋아 보입니다. 조금 더 깔끔하게 정리되면서 추세를 만드는지 보고 싶습니다.

20. 테슬라도 같은 경우입니다. 한 번 진입했다가 거의 본전에 청산했는데, 지난주에 모델이 다시 신호를 줬습니다. 오늘까지 경고 표시가 떠 있었던 이유는 금요일 직전까지 모델에서 탈락 직전이었기 때문입니다. 대략 하루 정도 안에 정신을 차리지 않으면 모델에서 빠질 수 있는 상황이었습니다. 그래도 버텨 줬고, 좋은 상승 움직임이 나왔습니다. 계속 올라갈지 지켜보겠습니다. 테슬라는 저희가 커버리지를 두고 있고 관심 있게 보는 종목입니다.

21. 마지막으로 유나이티드항공입니다. 최근에 새로 들어온 종목인데, 다시 움직이기 시작했습니다. 금요일에 위로 크게 확장하는 모습이 나왔습니다. 이 세 종목이 지금 저희 모멘텀 모델이 선호하는 종목들입니다. 이 모델이 어떻게 작동하는지 더 알고 싶으시면 저희 웹사이트 주소에 자료가 있습니다.

22. 다음 주를 생각하면 기억해 둘 중요한 날짜가 있습니다. 사실 제가 날짜를 기억하지 못해서 찾아봐야 하는데, 다음 주에 엔비디아 실적 발표가 있습니다. 수요일일 것 같은데 틀릴 수도 있으니 날짜를 꼭 확인해 보시기 바랍니다. 녹화가 끝나면 바로 확인해 보겠습니다.

23. 엔비디아는 4월 저점 이후로 꽤 차분하고 안정적인 상승 추세를 이어 왔습니다. 그런데 지금은 조금 지저분해 보입니다. 단기적으로는 상승 추세선을 이탈했습니다. 다른 차트를 가져왔는지 확인해 보겠습니다. 아니, 가져온 차트는 이것뿐입니다. 가격 흐름 측면에서는 180 부근 구간에 매물이 쌓여 있어서 조금 부담스러워 보입니다. 그래서 차트 모양이 마음에 들지는 않지만, 이번 실적이 주가의 촉매가 될 것이라고 봅니다. 오늘 오전에 확인해 보니 옵션 시장에서 내재된 변동폭은 약 7% 정도였습니다. 즉 위아래로 대략 12포인트 정도입니다. 대략 160에서 190 부근 사이가 실적 이후 움직임의 기준선이 될 수 있다는 뜻입니다. 물론 이보다 더 크게 움직일 수도 있지만, 참고만 하시면 좋겠습니다.

24. 엔비디아는 지금 시장 전체가 레버리지를 걸고 있는 AI 관련 테마의 중심에 있습니다. 그래서 가이던스와 자본지출 확대 관련 이야기가 나오는지 시장이 면밀히 살펴볼 것이고, 이 부분을 꼭 주시해야 합니다.

25. 엔비디아 말고도 금요일에 PCE 물가가 나오고, 실업수당 청구건수와 내구재 주문도 발표됩니다. 전체적으로 한 주가 가볍긴 하고, 심리 지표도 몇 개 나오지만, 경제 지표 중에 주목할 것들이 있긴 합니다. 그래도 다음 주에는 엔비디아가 그 모든 것을 압도할 가능성이 큽니다.

26. 제가 드릴 말씀은 여기까지입니다. 이번 주 정리였습니다. 이번 주 초 나흘 동안 많이 흔들리지 않으셨기를 바랍니다. 파월 의장이 구해 줬네요. 지금 가장 어려운 매매는 여전히 롱을 유지하는 것이라고 생각합니다. 이 판단은 바뀔 수 있습니다. 가격이 계속 오르고 있어서 저희는 매일 이런 영상을 만들고 있고, 가격 움직임을 계속 해석하고 있습니다. 지금 보이는 바로는 저희 모델 대부분이 여전히 위험 선호, 즉 리스크온이라고 말하고 있습니다. 흔들리는 신호도 있지만 섹터 간 순환매가 일어나고 있어서, 8월 말까지 어떻게 정리될지 지켜보겠습니다.

27. 오늘은 여기까지입니다. 시청해 주셔서 감사합니다. 재미있으셨다면 좋아요를 눌러 주시고, 설명란에 링크가 있으니 확인해 주세요. 좋은 주말 보내시고, 다음 주에 다시 뵙겠습니다.