저자: Evan · 외국인
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S&P500은 주간 횡보로 12월 이후 5주간 박스권 소화 중이며 신고가 근처에서 추세는 상승 유지로 본다. 소형주(IWM/러셀2000)는 135 지지를 간신히 지켜 박스권이며 나스닥100만 신고가로 독주 중이다. TLT(장기채)는 단기 숏 후 청산했고 122.70 돌파 여부가 관건이며, USO(원유)는 1175 상향 돌파 시 강세 전환 가능성을 언급했다. UNG(천연가스)는 8달러 지지 반등 가능성이 있으나 셋업이 깔끔하지 않아 패스했다. GLD(금)는 상승 흐름이며 115.60 부근 이전 지지를 다음 관심 레벨로 봤고, 은은 16~20 구간 재진입 시 저항 가능성을 봤다. XLF(금융)는 2375~2380 돌파 전까지 횡보 이탈 여부를 지켜보며 실패 시 하락 우려를 언급했다. XLK(기술)는 신고가를 기록하며 강세, XLI(산업재)는 63.25 저항 돌파 대기, XLE(에너지)는 2020일선 회복 전까지 약세로 본다. 개별주는 넷플릭스 돌파를 확인했으나 실적 발표가 임박해 관망, 테슬라는 240~245 구간 저항 확인 대기, 트위터는 170 상회 시 실적 전 반등 여지, 알리바바는 97 돌파 시 추가 상승, 프라이스라인은 1550 돌파 시 1600 방향 상승을 전망했다. 주간 전체 결론은 추세는 상승 유지 중이나 단기 소화 국면이며 공격적 풀매수보다 일부 롱 노출과 관망을 병행하는 전략이다. 다음 주는 트럼프 취임식과 실적 시즌으로 시장 변동성이 커질 수 있다고 강조했다.
다듬은 글
Oh hello everyone this is Evan here from the trade risk on Friday January thirteenth with a weekend market recap video we are going to cover all of the major markets current market environment sector analysis and then finish off with some of those popular individual names reminder if you guys like these videos if you watch every week please do subscribe to our channel in the bottom right hand corner just keeps you up to date with all the latest videos that were publishing week to week so with that let's get into markets here SMP 500 spy ETF finished higher almost a quarter of a percent on Friday but start with the weekly chart though let's take a look at what happened this week you can see we actually finished slightly lower basically a flat week and take a look at the candle that we printed this week you can see we probed all the way down to below that 225 level and managed to rally back up towards the highs and you can see now we've consolidated five weeks sideways going nowhere since the beginning of december so we're putting in that digestion after that strong rally post the election and you can see we're just hovering at highs not making any progress but not doing a whole lot wrong either so back to the daily timeframe you can see more specifically came into the week here and it was just a choppy week there was a lot of whipsaw we had some intraday stakeouts or some intraday sell-off which were then strongly recovered we're still above a rising eight and twenty so not much else to say about this market it's simply consolidating or has the leadership is sort of really thinned out with we're seeing maybe you know biotech lead one day or make knology which has been strong and mostly leading us higher over this past week or two really the new year has kind of been doing it solo there hasn't been a whole lot of broad participation this year it's been a lot of sort of individual sectors kind of going at it each and every day so waiting to see if that shifts waiting to see how this range resolved once again for slightly cleaner viewer you can look at the cash market you can see we did try and make an all-time high here on friday we have the potential to make an all-time closing high we couldn't quite do it you can see with the fade off of the highs again maybe the long weekend has a bit to do it is generally you know consensus a three-day weekend you don't want to take a ton of risk if you don't have to just given you have an extra day of sort of unknown out there due to the holiday on Monday so could be a part of it you know Friday session this was still closed you know higher across the board no major indices and perhaps we'll look into it when we start looking at the sector's but the financials that fade off those highs could be maybe even a little tell or you know largely due to the reason why we couldn't close here at new all-time closing high so that is the scenario it's basically trend remains higher remained consolidating working off those overbought conditions and we're basically in wait and see mode we're playing it the same way we're looking for individual stocks that are moving in those sectors that are you know seeing some momentum a little more than the broad indices moderately exposed still definitely want to have that long exposure don't want to be all in and you know waiting to kind of see what next week brings at the inauguration and earnings of course which should start to impact the market and should start to be a very busy week next week for markets with that look into the IWM russell 2000 had a nice stick save here by the Bulls on Thursday we started to break down through support below this 135 level then put out a post earlier in the week saying you know Bulls are relentlessly defending support until 135 is broken in a meaningful way that's when I would become concerned I was concerned intraday on Thursday but that's why we look at closing prices and you can see we basically closed above that support so the Bulls saved us and we mark managed to March higher on Friday again not near that it didn't close at the hynes but still a positive session still clearly range-bound here a lot of consolidation over the past five six weeks waiting to see what's going to happen with that and then the nasdaq-100 is the bright spot they are again kind of the solo leadership here over the past basically for 2017 closed the new all-time highs very constructive or a bullish bullish trend and it's just continuing to sort of chip away here to the upside so that's the bright spot in the market we want to see other things kind of follow in the cuse footsteps so let's take a look at some of the other major markets TLT so this one has been rallying again talk about this rally here throughout 2017 nice relief rally after getting crushed in the second of basically last quarter of 2016 it's hanging out here closed down on the day we took a very tactical short here members and I on Thursday so yesterday we actually shorted fealty via the tmv which is just a 3x bearish bond fun and we actually covered everything today closer to the lows not quite at the exact loads but here just for quick one day slip like the failure like this kind of candle here for a quick reversal trade something we put on we're no longer in this just locked in a small game so you know I it's still tough to say you got basically a good landmark right here 122 70 that's going to be you know basically your momentum area to break above weekly you know you're going to really see the damage if you look at this weekly chart you can see eight and twenty still sharply lower on the daily chart you can see it's trying to just maybe start a consolidation period here in between you know five or six point range i think that perfectly reasonable but doesn't look to actual to me there anymore uso continues to consolidate here it seems again at a nice save by the Bulls on wednesday talked about this being a pretty important day wednesday we're kind of hammered on tuesday hammered on monday and tuesday and looking like it could really sort of cascade lower but wednesday we saw that nice reversal that gave us some a little encouragement showed us that that maybe we're a little off size on the sell off around eleven dollars and ten cents in the uso etf you can see we could close the week higher just in the midpoint of this range kind of just sitting here not interested in it whatsoever but i am interested once this eventually sorts of sort of resolves itself think you got a clear line in the sand here about 1175 on the upside start to break above that start to get a lot more bullish UNG daily chart doesn't look too great right looks pretty messy where the weekly chart may be a little more actionable of 4% this week I mean it might not be saying much giving we were down 12 and a half last week but it did kind of put in this little meaningful perhaps meaningful reversal here the bottom end of this channel right at that round eight dollar level which has been previous previously significant on a pivot level back above the 22 or closing right at that 20 period EMA so perhaps you know ung it will be worth the trade back to the upside here it did look at it didn't quite fit the bill exactly how I like to play for reversal so I passed on it but something to consider maybe we have enough of a reversal action on this pivot day here from Monday to start to bring us higher and maybe fill this gap here in the ETF we'll have to see it's you know a little bit a little bit dicey there's cleaner setups out there base you know the way I look at things gld continues to work higher finished Friday up on the day after seeing a so off early in the day eight and twenty are up and it did try and fill this gap it did successfully fill this gap hear back from November so you know it's doing the work it's grinding higher and if you want to try and play in this mini trend you can weekly charge us remember it's pretty pretty damaged in this level up here round 115 60 or so prior support call it the breakdown level back from late last year that might be your next sort of level of interest to pay attention to and silver pretty similar situation not really climbing as high on that kind of structural trend basis but it is coming back into these December high so 16 20 or so expect that to have a little bit of hesitant sort of trading action there as it comes back into that previous supply so that's the levels I'd be watching in the metals without let's get into some the other markets x I'm sorry sector analysis XLF let's talk about that so we did have a few banks reporting on Friday and we're off to a strong start at the beginning of the day but you can see this this candle that we printed here kind of pushed up above this 2375 level this is where it's been failing for the past two weeks I'm sorry almost about a month and a half or so and once again did fail there and close off the high it's finished up half a percent but off of the high so really the story continues main one of consolidation and chop working off the extreme sort of overbought conditions throughout november and december of 2016 and we're moving sideways for about five or six weeks now clear line in the sand right i like when these when these levels get pretty clear 2375 2380 you want to be you know a lot more constructive bullish long or you want to think about it above that level while we're in here probably you know you can have a smaller starter position all depends on your strategy and timeframe but you want to just be more so patient waiting to see how this Oliver soul this is a you know it's a notable sort of reversal candle here and a failure to kind of hold on to those highs if we saw a downside follow through immediately next week that would be concerning that maybe we do need to come back down here and kind of either you know take out them stop losses or put in a meaningful retracement so you know pay attention to that next week but for now kind of just sitting in the middle of this range not too much to say about it xlk back to the upside bright side of things again technology then kind of that solo band leading us higher closed at new all-time highs today continues to look good stair stepping higher doesn't have a tremendous amount of momentum behind it but it's it's working itself up xly also getting back very quickly to these previous highs and kind of a stealth grind sort of rally so all the way almost back to these December highs here in xly finally xli the industrial etf still something that i'm watching to really get some life back in it get that upside momentum pop that some of these other sectors working you can see it's bumping up against the 63 and a quarter level try to close near the height of the day today it did break this trend line earlier actually late last week it did and now it's kind of just hanging out here so still not a whole lot of energy behind it again might still need to wait for earnings to start the siphon through before it can get some real momentum in xli but something to keep an eye on could see a night rotational kind of momentum move in that next week finally XL e continues to lag here even oil is up there kind of stabilizing you're seeing that sort of tripped lower here in a lot of these energy stocks it's pretty split but you know you definitely have if you start looking under the hood here you definitely do have some name that are outperforming versus some that are lagging out but the xle overall is kind of in a stripped lower it needs to get you know reclaim this 2020 period EMA and get this eighth period back above it and bullishly aligned once that can happen then you can start to be more constructive here but still kind of just lagging no energy literally behind the energy sector so that wraps up some a sector analysis let's look at some individual stocks will start with Netflix it's our nice breakout today above these recent highs posted this chart yesterday a two days ago showing this flag right above resistance I like this pattern it's one of my favorite patterns when you have this little mini base over a larger kind of breakout base I like those patterns because the risk to reward is so you know you can keep your risk so tight it's very clearly defined and generally you can get some nice moves out of it I opted to sort of drop this off my immediate watch list just because it does have earnings coming up so soon in it and I didn't really want to play around in this but looks looks great if it didn't have earnings up I'd probably be in this today but I'm going to have to pass but looks good if you want to scramble in there for a few days that potentially works Tesla also continues to move up three and a half percent just non-stop every every you know I we dip down to eat period may written it looks like it could roll over get spa and I guess that's the hallmark of a strong trend so continues to work higher you know coming back into the midpoint of this range if we looked at the weekly chart you can see it this area more or less is where we've seen a little bit of struggle in the past is 240 level 2 35 to 40 seen a lot of chopped in here before so maybe you know maybe we get some hesitant price action next week up these levels but continues to sort of work twitter also one that we've been talking about recently ended up just slightly on the week you can see trying to consolidate a little bit here just having some trouble clearing that 20 period EMA but it's holding a pretty resilient given how damaged this chart was you know coming into the year so it's done some good work if the Bulls can kind of put in a higher low here if it can hold on to 17 and make a higher low into earnings maybe get a little squeeze going could be interesting so Twitter keep on your watch if you're pretty tactical alibaba we also talked about this one has a strong pop last week now it's consolidating that move when get back above 97 basically today's highlights Friday's highs then you might be able to start to continue to accelerate higher here but i like it it's ever since snapping this downtrend line it's kind of been working to the upside and finally one we haven't talked about in a while is priceline and Priceline you can see continues to hover near highs admittedly this is my experience and it's sort of a difficult one to trade there's a lot of shop in this other moves generally aren't the cleanest although that you know doesn't have to be it doesn't have to be the case anyhow progress above today's highs this week ties which we did close at the height of the week above 1550 next week I think it's pretty interesting you can see it because it's a nice little pattern here that has kind of been consolidating in if you can start to clear and lift the buck 1550 then you know it's a big name but could start to move very quickly back up to these prior hives up at sixteen hundred dollars so we'll end it there on priceline thank you guys for watching hope you have a great long weekend and I will talk to you soon I
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