저자: TradeRisk채널진행자 · 외국인
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이번 주 S&P500 흐름을 중심으로 한 미국 증시 주간 리캡 영상이다. 결론: 진행자는 지수가 단기 박스권에서 방향성이 불분명하다고 보며, 현재 포지션을 거의 비운 상태로 관망 중이라고 밝힌다. [지수 흐름] - SPY는 수요일 0.29% 상승했으나 주간으로는 아직 소폭 하락. 최근 13일 박스권(약 214.5~216) 안에서 움직임. - 화요일 장 초반 약 214.5까지 밀렸다가 반등해 마감. 이 날이 박스권 해소를 시도한 첫 날이었다고 평가. - 주간 차트상 지난 2주 저점을 일시 하향 이탈했으나 곧 회복. 금요일 방향에 따라 박스권 복귀 또는 단기 조정으로 해석 가능하다고 함. - 15분봉 기준 하락 구간의 약 50%를 되돌림. 단기 방향은 동전 던지기에 가깝다고 평가. [포지션] - 지난 몇 달간 노출을 거의 두지 않음. 명확한 방향이 나올 때까지 대기. 현 환경은 확률 높은 매매 환경이 아니라고 판단. - 216 부근 매물대를 돌파하거나 이탈해 방향성을 보이면 재진입을 고려하겠다는 입장. [지수별] - IWM(러셀2000): 120.5 돌파 후 상승했으나 다시 박스권 복귀. 모멘텀 부족. - QQQ: 최근 주도주로 가장 건설적. 8일 EMA 위에서 상승 추세 유지. 다만 2015년 고점 부근 저항이 존재. [금리·환율·원자재] - TLT(장기국채): 138 지지 확인 중. 낮은 고점이 형성되는지 주시. 138~137.5 하향 이탈 시 추세 전환 가능성을 언급하며 약세 시나리오 경계. - 금: 오늘 0.48% 하락했으나 구조는 양호. 일부 이익 실현 후 나머지 보유. 고점 재도전 여부 관찰. - 은: 전일 고점을 돌파했다가 밀림. 19.30달러 부근 지지 유지 여부 관건. 장기 상승 추세는 유효. - 원유(USO): 10일 연속 하락 후 4% 반등했으나 추세 회복은 멀었다고 평가. 9~10달러 횡보가 나와야 건설적. - UNG(천연가스): 3일 연속 하락 후 4% 반등. 기존 롱은 손절 처리. 이전 피벗 고점 돌파 시 상승 추세 재개 가능성. - 달러인덱스: 24.50 레벨이 중요한 변곡점. 이 아래로 밀리면 추가 하락 가능. [섹터] - 강세: 기술(XLK), 헬스케어(XLV), 바이오(IBB, XBI), 반도체는 단기 조정 후에도 주요 고점 위에서 유지. 바이오와 반도체는 지금 공매도하기엔 강도가 아직 충분하다고 판단. - 중립: 금융(XLF)은 좁은 박스권에서 횡보 중이며 지수 방향을 가를 핵심 섹터로 지목. - 약세 기운: 필수소비재(XLP), 운송(IYT)은 낮은 고점을 만들며 하락 전환 조짐. 임의소비재(XLY)도 지지선 이탈 위험. - 결론적으로 시장이 양분된 상태이며, 기술·헬스케어 쪽이 주도주. [개별 종목] - 애플(AAPL): 실적 갭 위에서 횡보하며 버팀. 추세선 위 유지가 긍정적이라고 평가. - 구글(GOOGL): 800달러 부근 지지 유지. 월봉상 8~9개월 횡보 후 7월 13% 상승 등 장기 구조 양호. - 아마존(AMZN): 실적 당일 가격 위로 복귀 실패. 단순 피로인지 추가 조정인지 관찰 필요. - 페이스북(FB): 완만한 하락 추세. 큰 문제는 없으나 애플·구글 대비 부진. - 트위터(TWTR): 실적 갭을 거의 메웠고 큰 폭 상승. 19달러 부근 저항 주시. 장기적으로는 넓은 박스권 가능성. - 테슬라(TSLA): 실적 발표 직전 주가 약 229달러로 언급. 30~35달러 구간이 중요 저항대였으나 현재 방향은 불투명하며 흥미로운 종목은 아니라고 평가. [출연자 전망 요약] - 시장 전반: 단기 방향 불확실, 현금 비중 높게 유지하며 관망. - 낙관 요소: 기술·헬스케어 주도, 대형 기술주 구조 양호. - 경계 요소: 운송·임의소비재 약세 신호, 달러 24.50 이탈 시 리스크, TLT 138 이탈 시 금리 상승·채권 약세 전환 가능성. - 구체적 목표가나 기간에 대한 명시적 예측은 거의 없음.
다듬은 글
August third with a midweek and then finish off looking at some individual names now we'll jump right into things today sp500 the spy ETF closed up 29 basis point here on Wednesday and we are still down a bit on the week so let's recap what's gone on this week we started off right here this was Monday session this candle right here and notice we tried to break higher and move outside of this tight kind of 13 day range that we've been in but notice we made a new intraday high we couldn't hold those highs and we ended up kind of trading back down into this comfortable range that was monday session didn't really make any progress lost a little bit of ground on the day but basically flat and then Tuesday was where we actually found some movement here we actually got some excitement in the market we opened near Monday's lows and we started to trend strongly for the majority of the day certainly the open into the early afternoon came all the way down to 214 50 ish right below that 20 period EMA and then we did see a bit of a bounce here into the close of the day yesterday so that was the first real sort of excitement day the first day where we're really definitively sort of resolving this range but notice the bull still did manage to close us right at that support meanwhile in today's session with that bounce sort of continued higher we closed up 29 basis points into this old range again back above 216 but it's still kind of meandering here in a kind of very choppy sideways low volatility environment overall we did see a little bit of spike in volatility on Tuesday but still near some pretty historically low levels or at least below averages so that's sort of where we are not a whole lot of movement there hasn't been too much going on here there's certainly been individual names and even sectors that are working and those that aren't working and we'll get into those later in the video but from a bigger picture this range here is still more or less developing if we go to the weekly time frame you can see the tail that we have down here already as we kind of broke below the past two weeks of lows but notice we're already back at those loans so we're figuring things out i think the close of the week could be interesting you know if we see more follow through tomorrow to the upside you know will definitively be back in this range and maybe this is just a one-day kind of shake out maybe before a real move higher or will tomorrow just kind of push us back lower and start to really add on to this move here so if we were to go down to like a 15 minute chart we've probably retraced about fifty percent of this down leg you know from 217 all the way down to 214 we've retraced about two points at that point half of it so you know it could really go either way it's kind of flip a coin you know in my opinion it's really tough to call which way the short-term direction is going to lean here for us works where the lightest we've been on since you know man if for at least the past couple of months we really don't have much exposure on whatsoever we're just waiting and kind of seeing for a little more clarity to kind of take place it just doesn't seem like a high probability trading environment there are some interesting setups under the surface we'll get into those but that's sort of the way we're looking at things right now just waiting to see us get away from 216 get away from the bulk of this supply and start making a move either up or down in the coming days or weeks or however long it takes if we go to the IWM you can see really what happened here was we broke back below this sort of breakout area of 120 50 so the IWM was was leading us higher here it broke out and started to kind of grind higher you know a few days earlier than the sp500 but then we kind of came crashing back down into this range now it's just back comfortably into this range so again more sideways there's no momentum here it's just choppy back-and-forth action the cues are certainly the most constructive they've been just kind of levitating higher here above this eighth period EMA there they're certainly the leadership recently in the cues and you can see it's still above the eighth period ma the formations different here it's been a grinding uptrend still not a tremendous amount of momentum but the gains have been sort of steadily you know just rising every day so certainly you know the best looking here would be the Q's although it is add some very significant resistance these are the old multi-year highs here from 2015 so maybe that will start to kick in to play as this week continues on I think for the indices here it's just really going to be interesting to see how they close out the week and if we can get any more excitement and any uptick in volatility that will certainly be helpful moving on to some of these other markets here if we go to TLT next you can see TLT see if my chart wants to load okay TLT here you can see is finding some support back here at this 138 level yesterday had this gap lowered to try and stabilize at 138 and it just did more sideways action today but you can see that potentially we have a lower high here this candle right hear back from july twenty ninth this is going to be an interesting day can you know is this going to start a series of lower highs is this some bigger consolidation pattern I think you know if we start to break below these lows here this 138 137 50 area after putting in this this type type of kind of lower high pivot here that'll be certainly a more bear case that's developing perhaps a trend change here on the daily timeframe so that's something very important to keep on watch if you're at the cusp of potential break down and trend reversal we'll have to see how that shakes out in the coming days next if we go to gold you can see just kind of filling yesterday's gap had a nice move this week back up to these previous highs the market that we're long we got back involved in gold actually sprite I think that's the first time we got involved in gold this year but on this day right here we've already taken some profits yesterday and now we're just kind of hanging on to the rest of the position to see which way this wants to lean forty percent of what 48 basis point move lower today but still looks healthy still looks constructive it's in its in a kind of a holding pattern here but if we can start to challenge these highs again will be interesting to see if we can get going silver similar situation we've already taking out the previous day's highs so we'll have to see if it can hold those highs right around here right around nineteen dollars and thirty cents down 1.12 percent today so still above the 820 looks healthy maybe a bigger consolidation that it's forming into but still up trending here on the daily timeframe if we go to oil finally caught a bid today nice one four percent it's been down you know 10 days in a row basically close to it coming you know just really sliding down Momentum's from picking up steam on the downside eight and twenty just sharply lower so this move today was nice a nice kind of bounce and I start perhaps but still there's there's there's a lot of work ahead of us oh if it wants to really try and reverse this trend so it's got damaged to heal perhaps if this starts to base out sideways between nine dollars and ten dollars for the next couple of weeks that would be constructive but for now just really tough to do much with this if you know short side clearly in control their UNG also getting a nice pop today four percent rally and this was after selling off three days in a row we were long UNG we scratched it yesterday it was a tough one for us to scratch we knew we were we were in this interesting kind of no-man's land we were looking to play defense over getting aggressive but it would you know regardless it's it's you know something that's going to happen all the time we're never going to be perfect we just need to be profitable so you angie was a scratch for us we're out of it starting to shape back up if it can take out this old pivot hi perhaps you get some type of you know continuation of trend higher here in UNG so we'll have to keep that on watch you can see eight and twenty starting to expand and get that momentum going back to the upside if we look at I think that's everything if we look at the US dollar though real quick you can see probably should redraw this sort of support level here but it's still just kind of consolidating its been in this interesting kind of you know grind higher here following this channel that it's been in and it's getting to the lower end of it right now so we'll have to see if they can if it can hold out here or are we going to see some type of rollover below this 2450 level which has been a pretty important inflection point in the US dollar so we'll have to see how that plays out in the coming days and weeks now if we look at some of the sector's here on the plus sign on the positive side we got technology which continues to work higher xlk certainly where there's been some leadership rotation in to continue that trend here today as it performed 35 basis points to the upside healthcare continued strong XLV was down today but even biotech specifically was up nicely today still continues in this trend and there's a lot of setups under the under the surface here in ib b and x bi so even though you know this is getting a little bit stretched here i wouldn't want to start aggressively shorting this yet just because I do see still a lot of strength under the hood there and and even to a lesser extent semiconductors are still holding up pretty well I know they've been in a little bit of a pullback over the past few days but still I mean they've come a real far away and they're in there above all recent highs and still just at the 8th period EMA even after trading down you know four or five days so so those are definitely the leadership there and and XLF I should point out is still just on the fence this is really tight here and and looks a lot similar to the sp500 with this recent you know very tight consolidation and this is just going to be a big part component of the sp500 we really want to see which way financials lean because I do still think that this could be the kind of key to the next directional movement even in the short to intermediate term so XLF continues to be at a big inflection area it's in it's pretty tight range recently so let's see recovered nicely today let's see which way this kind of moves into the end of the week as far as the downside goes I mean Excel you on a relative basis is starting to underperform a little bit it's back to the support I mean it is still holding up in a bigger picture time frame fine but you can see it's just back to support so I'll have to see if that holds on another test staples kinda in a similar camp here it's more definitively putting in some type of lower high after kind of rolling over back in the middle and beginning of July and I YT the transports starting to break back below this trend line that it tried to emerge from in July so a little more of a bearish picture here and in these sort of sectors and and and the discretionary a little bit starting to give some games and potentially break down so it's it's definitely a split market you can see where you want to be biotech technology and some of those slower staples transports discretionary sectors are just in a little more of a crossroad sort of you know a seller's taking control kind of camp so if we get into some of the individual names let's look at Apple just real quick not much has changed since last week but it's holding up well that's what it's doing really well you can see it's still you know hanging onto this earnings gap it's still hanging above this trend line here so that's constructive the more time it can spend above here basing out and not giving back gains the more constructive Appleby comes and starts to shape up so I like Apple there Google is also looking pretty good here it's it's holding up from its earnings gap same kind of comments here the more it can hold up in base around this eight hundred dollar level the more likely the buyers are going to continue to take control and trend this higher so Google look at this monthly time frame I mean you had about eight nine months of consolidation you had a nice thirteen percent month in july and now if this can really start to get going here that this this long-term time friend and google looks pretty good amazon is a bit more sluggish notice it's kind of you know moving back below those that this immediate kind of earnings day price action so you have to wonder if this is just a little tired in here or if it just needs more time kind of consolidating facebook's in a very similar situation right this is kind of still continuing to slide lower here not doing anything terribly wrong either of these two stocks they've both had great runs and they've been great performers but they're just a little bit more sluggish than the Apple and the Google so just keep that in mind keep that in the back of your head but certainly keep a watch out because that can change very quickly Twitter's one that's coming to life had a huge move today seven percent really getting into this prior this earnings gap and it's in and it's you know same thing it's not a never followed through to the downside have this pretty rough day of selling pretty capitulated capitulated day but we never saw follow through from that day and we actually just continue to kind of push higher here and now we've almost closed the earnings gap entirely you no longer term it's still believe I still think this is going to be in a big you know kind of wide range here that this can play in and sort of develop in over the next weeks months and quarters perhaps but we'll have to see you know weekly charts still looking you know semi constructive here you can see the eight and twenty starting to curl back over and nineteen dollars will certainly be a level that looms over head finally Tesla is reporting after the bell and let's see if there's a quote on this it looks like it's up a little bit earnings should be out by now it's about twenty past eastern time right now so 229 looks to be the print unless unless that's still prior to the numbers coming out but um see if that holds that this to 30 to 35 area has been important for Tesla hasn't been able to get back above there it kind of failed around here in mid-june and then it's grinding up to this level throughout July so we'll have to see still kind of messy in my opinion not really an interesting one to me as I've repeatedly said so that's uh that that's where we'll end it here today hope you found this video helpful for every is doing great out there thanks for watching and I'll catch you guys next time
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