Billionaire David Tepper Thinks the Magnificent 7 Is Really a Fabulous 5

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데이비드 테퍼의 Appaloosa 포트폴리오 분석. 메타·마이크로소프트·아마존·엔비디아·알파벳 등 매그니피센트 7 중심으로 보유하며, 최근 분기 엔비디아와 메타 등을 일부 매도(차익실현)하는 흐름. 애플과 테슬라는 보유하지 않음. 테슬라는 마진 하락과 고평가로, 애플은 성장 정체와 고밸류로 회피한 것으로 해석. 진행자는 13F 공시를 보며 AI 관련 일부 종목 차익실현 가능성을 언급.

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01. we've heard a lot about the Magnificent Seven over the past year or so some of the top performing stocks on the market a lot of them related to artificial intelligence and some of the big tech companies in the world but not all investors are bought into all Magnificent Seven stocks especially in 2024 we've seen a couple of them underperform in particular Tesla is one of the worst performers in the S&P 500 and billionaire David teer who is investing almost $6 billion is very invested in what I think of as The Fabulous Five five of The Magnificent Seven stocks and he is not into two of them at all so I'm going to dig into exactly what he owns how those positions changed at the end of 2023 and what to look for in 2024 because I think teer is one of those investors that I like to watch and see how he's looking at the market overall generally has a very concentrated portfolio and has a long history of success so when he starts selling something that I own it's something to pay attention to my name is Travis ham thanks for watching asymed the mly fool if you go to foo so let's first look at teer portfolio overall this is teer portfolio in Appaloosa Asset Management $5.79 billion invested according to fin chat that's the platform I'm using to pull this information you can see that some of the biggest positions are some of the Magnificent Seven stocks meta 11.3% of the portfolio Microsoft 11% Amazon 10.4% Nvidia 6.8% those are the top four and then number seven is alphabet with 5.6% the two companies that you don't see listed here are Tesla and Apple so I'm going to get to those in just a second but the next thing I want to highlight is exactly how what's changing in the portfolio because this is where you can see what these investors are buying and what they're selling each quarter and in the case of teer it looks like he's taking some profits on some stocks that have done really well recently meta that position was down 5.1% in the most recent quarter Nvidia dropped 22.9% I want to dig into Nvidia just a little bit Nvidia was a stock that teer was buying pretty heavily in mid 2023 so when we were in the midst of that artificial intelligence run up when growth was going absolutely crazy terer was buying shares but over the last quarter he has been selling shares and so this is one of the things that I like to keep an eye on as an investor is what are some of these bigger investors doing with some of these really hot names on the market are they just trading them are they have they been holding them for a very long time and now they're just realizing those gains teer is somebody who really has a handle on what the trends are in the market and where the big opportunities are and so when artificial intelligence pops up you can see that Nvidia he was adding that late in 2022 but then really really went all in in Spring of 2023 and now it's starting to pull back so in the first quarter of 2024 do we start to see that pull back even more I wouldn't be surprised to see if he's taking a lot of profits with Nvidia meta platforms is a bit of a different story meta is something that terer has owned since 2016 he kind of gone in and out as far as the percentage of the portfolio but has always been a pretty big holding over 5% for a fund manager like this is a pretty big holding and that's now 11.3% so added to that position in mid 2023 as you can see here maybe one of the Magnificent 7 artificial intelligence plays that a lot of investors were putting in place and then started taking some profits late in the year if we go back to the portfolio the interesting buys I think recently are increase positions in Microsoft and Amazon not big increases but small increases in those two stocks maybe seeing some value there and then Alibaba which I think a lot of investors think is a phenomenal value there's absolutely risks investing in Chinese companies given the ownership structure there given the things that we don't know about the future of the economy there but teer is seeing enough opportunity to at least put a pretty sizable position in place but he's selling things like uber alphabet AMD Intel these are stocks that did pretty well over the past year and were part of that artificial intelligence play so is he starting to pull back on those it certainly looks like it with a lot of these Investments and I think this is a theme that we've seen with a lot of the big hedgeh fund managers and billionaires is they're starting to sell some of these stocks that are really big names in The Magnificent 7 in particular that did very well in 2023 they got in before a lot of these stocks ran up bought in 2022 early in 2023 and now they're starting to take profits so again think about that how should you be interpreting that as an individual investor maybe it's time to start thinking about pairing back on some of these stocks that have done really well and are starting to look like really high multiples but the other thing that stuck out to me with teer position is what he doesn't own and he doesn't own apple and Tesla so I want to touch on those two both really quickly thanks to our friends at the monly fool apple is the first company to look at and late in 2023 when this report came out Apple was trading for about 30 times earnings a little over 30 times earnings the stock has pulled back a little bit since then but that's a pretty expensive multiple for a company that's not really growing in fiscal 2023 and calendar 2023 Revenue was down slightly at Apple and it's hard to see how that's going to turn around significantly in 2024 a lot of those products that the company grew a lot on are aging the iPhone iPad Mac the new products like the Apple Vision Pro don't seem to be catching on in really significant numbers and some of the growth from things like airpods is likely leveling off and even the services business which has really fueled the company over the past five or six years is starting to come under pressure as a lot of developers try to figure out how not to pay Apple as much as they have in the past so this is a really interesting one that it I'm sure if it were trading for 10 15 times earnings this terer would be all over it but as somebody who has a bit of value and a bit of growth in the way that he invests staying away from Apple the other one that I think makes a ton of sense Among The Magnificent Seven is Tesla by late 22 it was pretty clear that Tesla's margins were going to be on the decline in 2023 that was when they started discounting vehicles and that happened throughout the year in 2023 culminating just last week with a really terrible delivery number in the first quarter of 20124 so given the valuation of the stock which is about 10 times more expensive than traditional automakers on both a price to sales multiple and on a price to earnings multiple teer has just stayed away from that stock so I think that's an interesting to thing to look at he's not playing every one of these Trends he's playing the trends that are really just getting started so artificial intelligence something he was investing in in early 2023 starting to sell that off at least a little bit and has been staying away from electric vehicles which were arguably really really expensive as late is throughout the pandemic and then we're starting to see those fundamentals get worse and worse throughout 2023 so two stocks that he's just stayed away from as a result of that apple and Tesla but very overweight for the rest of the Magnificent Seven or The Fabulous Five as I've called them here so I think that's pretty notable investors who are looking for exposure to some of these Trends can keep an eye on what hedge fund managers are watching they are buying and selling these reports these 13 F filings that they put out each quarter come out 45 days after the quarter end so we'll get the next one from teer and other hedge fund managers which I will cover here on asymmetric investing in about the middle of May so check back here subscribe to this channel to get updates on those let me know which one of these stocks you like the best in the comment section below thanks for watching everybody see you next time