저자: TravisHoium · 외국인
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빌 애크먼의 13F 공시 분석. 2024년 3분기 포트폴리오 1위가 힐튼에서 브룩필드 코퍼레이션으로 바뀌었고, 나이키 지분을 2.2%에서 11.1%로 대폭 확대. 나이키는 매출·이익 감소와 주가 50% 이상 하락 후 저평가 매수 기회로 해석. 과거 치폴레 사례(2016년 저점 매수)와 비교하며 장기 관점 강조. 나이키 브랜드 회복 가능성은 불확실하다고 언급.
다듬은 글
bill akman has a 12.9 billion fund and this is one of the most concentrated funds that I follow I always like to see what he's doing when the 13f filing comes out that came out just a few days ago so I want to go through what big changes there were in amman's portfolio what he may be seeing in the market today my name is Travis ham thanks for watching asymmetric investing Please Subscribe here on YouTube for all my content and thanks to this video sponsor the ble fool if you go to full.com ym they'll give you their top 10 stocks to buy right now so let's look first at the portfolio overall and the big change here is the number one position has changed I'll also show this here from a quarter ago you can see a quarter ago Hilton was number one Chipotle was number two restaurant Brands International was number three that changed a lot in the third quarter with a huge acquisition of shares of Brookfield Corporation now Brookfield Corporation is an asset manager based in Canada and they own stakes in a number of publicly traded companies with renewable energy assets infrastructure assets and they're also investing funds on behalf of other customers particularly large Pension funds and large investors where they can invest billions and billions of dollars at a time the company has a relatively complicated structure which is one of the reasons I think a lot of investors think that it's trading at a discount from where it may be if it were fully realizing its own value one of the things they've done is they spun off Brookfield Asset Management that's now a separate publicly traded company but Brookfield Corporation still owns 75% of that business so like I said complicated business but Amman obviously sees a lot of opportunity here and you can see that this position was built entirely in 2024 during the second and third quarter was when all of this buying was happening Hilton which was the biggest position in the second quarter has fallen back to number two and Amman has actually been selling shares of Hilton over the past couple of years peaked in 2020 at 13.8 million shares in the portfolio that was now down to 7.4 million in the most recent quarter 17% reduction in shares in that company restaurant Brands International also took a very very small dip in the portfolio but the other big Holdings to Howard Hughes those were holding steady throughout the quarter so no real big moves there the big change was with a huge acquisition in shares of Nike so let's take a look at what's going on with Nike you can see that this position was around in 2017 but the new shares being acquired were acquired in the second quarter 2.2% of the portfolio at the end of the second quarter and that was increased to 11.1% of the portfolio as of the end of the third quarter now for as wild as crazy as Amman can seem as an investor because he takes huge stakes in companies he's actually a relatively conservative investor when you look at his history and you can see in the Nike share price that shares have come down really dramatically over the last few years Fallen by more than 50% from their Peak and you can see here that shares dropped in July when the company announced that they were going to have really weak quarterly sales in the next quarter their financials have just kind of become a mess as they went into the pandemic and said hey we're going to shift to being more direct a consumer we're going to kind of push away that wholesale business because that's starting to be in Decline but then after the pandemic ended they found out that hey customers want to go shop and wholesale they want to go and see brands that they recognize and Nike just wasn't there they had given up on a lot of those relationships with their wholesale partners and so they were kind of stuck because now they're stuck buying customers with a directed consumer relationship when you're buying advertisements like that and trying to compete against other companies on all these digital platforms you sit next to every other brand you're not differentiated in any real way so the growth that they were expecting and the margins that they were expecting in direct to Consumer just didn't really materialize and so they're trying to make a shift today they they've made changes in leadership but it may take a long time to the for this business to actually turn around but where is acman seeing opportunity where the market it really isn't right now first of all let's look at the quarterly Revenue net income cash flow and then I put operating margin so the gray line is total revenue you can see that Revenue drop in the most recent quarter to 11.6 billion that was down 10.4% from a year ago so that's a massive drop for a company like this net incomes falling free cash flow is falling almost went negative this quarter and look at those operating margins just terrible operating margins at 10.4% but on the flip side of that when the stock drops as much as it has there could be a value opportunity if Nike is able to turn the business around you can see in this chart that both price to sales and price to earnings multiples have declined sharply over the past few years and the price to sales multiple may actually be more telling here in January 2023 the price to sales multiple was four that's almost down 50% to just over two right now multiples are coming down yes sales are coming down but if management is able to turn things around on the top line and actually improve the bottom line as well this is a pretty good entry point and there could be a lot of upside for Nike I think that's what Amman is seeing in this stock and there's actually precedent in buying a iconic company a company that isn't going anywhere and buying it at a relatively low price and that's amman's position in Chipotle thanks to our friends at the mle fool for sponsoring this video visit fool.com ym for the top 10 stocks to buy right now here's amman's position in Chipotle and you can see this changes over time and chipotle went through a huge stock split which is why the end of this chart is kind of confusing but you can see in the blue line the percent of his portfolio has held pretty consistent at 15 to 20% since 2016 what happened in 2016 that was when Chipotle went through the eoli breakout so sales dropped for the company you can see that in this chart $2.4 million per restaurant in 2015 down to 1.9 million in 2016 but Chipotle has recovered now $3.2 million in Revenue per restaurant and at the same time they have increased the number of restaurants from 2250 to 3615 so Amman was buying shares when they were really out of favor with the market when operations were at their weak point but he saw the long-term opportunity the other thing he was doing is he was buying at a value and you can see that here in this chart the blue line is actually priced to earnings multiple that has never been that cheap for Chipotle but that was in part because of the eoli breakout in 2016 that reduced revenue and earnings per restaurant but when he was buying shares they were trading for about three times sales that multiple the price to sales multiple has more than doubled to over seven today so Chipotle was at a low point in 2016 Amman was opportunistic right now Nike is at a low Point Amman is trying to be opportunistic with Nike is that the right strategy we'll see if things play out the same way that way that they did at Chipotle I think brands are a little bit different especially shoe brands so it's very possible that Nike pulls out of this and comes back but it's also very possible that a bunch of other brands like on holding Hoka have taken kind of some of that shine away from Nike and I think the distribution power that they used to have just isn't as powerful as it once was but we'll see how this plays out interesting to look at what Amman is doing in his portfolio cuz like I said this is one of the investors it's very concentrated makes big bets isn't always right but when he's right he can be right huge like he's been with Chipotle over almost a decade now still holds a huge position in that company and that's responsible for a big part of his gains as an investor since 2016 so hopefully that was helpful in looking at what other big billionaire investors are doing I find this to be a great opportunity to look at what they're where they're finding value where they're seeing stocks being maybe too expensive or not in a strategic pos position that they like anymore especially these investors that are taking concentrated bets because that's telling you that they've done their research on those Investments but let me know what you think about amman's portfolio and what he is buying sell and selling in 2024 leave those comments in the comment section below don't forget to subscribe to asymmetric investing thanks for watching everybody see you next time
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