저자: TravisHoium · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 1분기 13F 포트폴리오 분석: 중국 자산(JD.com, 알리바바)에 대규모 베팅하며 가치주 매수, 아마존·알파벳·오라클 등 성장주 매도. 진행자는 중국 경제·정책 불투명성 때문에 중국 투자는 피하는 편이라고 봄. 다만 이는 특정 자산의 가격 방향 예측이라기보다 투자 성향 평가에 가깝다.
다듬은 글
we've gotten first quarter data about what hedge funds and what family offices own in their portfolios and there are a handful of well-known investors that I think it's worth watching each quarter and paying attention to what they're buying and what they're selling one of those people is the man who was made famous in The Big Short Michael bur he's a much more active Trader than a lot of the people that I cover on this channel but what he's buying and what he's selling I think is still really interesting to look at and the big bet over the last quarter has been a bet on China so in it dig into exactly what he bought the new additions to the portfolio and some of the exits from the portfolio at least over the last three months between the end of December and the end of March my name is Travis ham thanks for watching asym of the mle fool if you go to foo let's look at the portfolio overall here you can see a nice graphic with the portfolio the biggest holding is jd.com second was Alibaba and then HCA Healthcare relatively diverse portfolio a lot of times what I'm looking at with these hedge fund managers is much more concentrated portfolios where they're betting 15 20 30% of a portfolio on a single stock but that's not what bur is doing is making much broader bets and you can see that China is a huge piece of that this is a look at the changes in the portfolio and in particular these are the big buys for the quarter you can see that some of the bigger positions up pretty significantly jd.com up 80% in the quarter Alibaba group up 66.6% and then new positions sprot physical gold tier phys Sigma group and also BP so let's go through some of the top ones because I think it's interesting to highlight exactly why some of these stocks look so attractive right now let's start with jd.com this is a Chinese e-commerce company and trading in a pretty good valuation shares p weak at about $106 per share during the Pandemic those are down to $34.51 right now that's actually up pretty significantly from the low early in 2024 so we don't know exactly when bu was buying shares but it could is very possible that he's already up somewhere around 50% on these shares but some of the multiples are really what I think become attractive on a price to earnings basis these are trailing numbers Shares are trading for 15.7 times earnings on an Enterprise Value to sales multiple it's just3 now if we look at forward multiples you get price earnings multiple of 10.2 and an Enterprise Value to sales multiple of also .3 so potential that this is a value stock and that's similar to what we're seeing with Alibaba as well Alibaba is another Chinese company and on a forward multiple perspective we're getting similar valuation to jd.com price earnings multiple on a forward basis 10 .7 and an Enterprise Value to sales multiple of 1.3 Shares are down from about $300 per share late in 2020 to just $88 per share so those those are the two biggest positions in the portfolio and I think it's interesting that they're really value stocks this is an investor remember that is looking for values is not typically the kind of person who buys high growth stocks or disruptive companies even with some of the shorting that was done during The Big Short it was finding a different between the fundamental or intrinsic value of mortgages and the value that he saw at today's price and then paying a lower price than that that's I think exactly what we're seeing with stocks like jd.com and Alibaba a couple of the other ones that caught my eye was block Incorporated another one that was down really sharply from the pandemic hit a low earlier this year and this is not a business that is fundamentally in trouble it's just a matter of what's the appropriate price to pay for the stocks he obviously saw a value there and then moving into some of the more industrial and energy companies Advanced Auto Parts and BP were a couple that I think were really notable the other thing that I want to highlight is things that were sold in the quarter so these were the stocks that he sold out of entirely during only fo for sponsoring this video visit fool.com asym for the top 10 stocks to buy right now there are some pretty notable names here MGM Resorts sold sold out of that completely CVS he sold out of toast Oracle booking holding alphabet and Warner Brothers Discovery even Amazon sold out of that position entirely so really selling some big names and moving that money from those stocks that you probably know pretty well to some areas where that are potentially very undervalued in the market so one of the things that I think we need to ask is is this the sort of trade that we should be following do you want to be moving from American growth companies to Chinese value stocks and I tend to lean towards no and the reason for that is just simply that we don't know enough about what's going on in China's economy and as retail investors I think it's really hard to stay on top of that what is true and what's not in China there's a lot of policy changes that could happen we have seen with Alibaba you can have fundamental changes at the top of the company or the ownership structure of the company the CEO can disappear for a while while China is a bit of a blackbox for us investors and as a result it's just an area that I generally try to stay away from given that bur is so bullish though I thought it was very interesting that he was selling shares of MGM Resorts MGM Resorts has a pretty significant position in maau which is a special region in China where gambling is allowed now that region has really recovered over the last 12 to 15 months after China came out of their Co restrictions so people are going back to gamble more and MGM has been one of the beneficiaries but he obviously saw that there was not enough value left in the stock despite the fact that revenue and earnings are starting to improve in that region so I think an interesting deconomy of what's going on there maybe didn't see the quite quite the same value in MGM today as there is in some of these other stocks the other thing you see with bur's portfolio is that he turns things around really quickly makes trades in really big numbers on a quarter to quarter basis now hedge funds do not report what they're doing on a day-to-day basis to the SEC what they're reporting is what their positions are at the end of each quarter so we have no idea what's actually going on between those points in the quarter we can basically just see the big broad movements and that's what I'm trying to look at here is what sort of General Trends is buy looking at and I think the two takeaways are that he's selling out of a lot of tech companies that were growth stocks so just to go through some of those on the list toast Oracle booking Amazon alphabet sold out of all of those stocks which I could think you could argue have gotten relatively expensive a lot of those trading for 25 30 or even higher price to earnings multiples and is now buying stocks that are priced earnings multiples more in that 10 to 15 range he's just finding those opportunities in China is it appropriate to be paying half of the price earnings multiple in China given the uncertainty there versus stocks in the US that's probably a reasonable discount I think in the current market given everything that we don't know about China the potential slowdown in the economy there and the fact that they're just simply not as focused on profitability and generating economic wealth in their companies as they are in growing their GDP that's something that us companies generally focus on we have not seen the same value creation for investors in China especially over the last few years what sticks out to you with the buys with the sells that bur made in the quarter leave your comments in the comments section below love to hear what you think about his portfolio don't forget to subscribe to asymmetric investing thanks for watching everybody see you here next time
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