저자: TravisHoium · 외국인
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데이비드 테퍼의 2024년 1분기 13F 포트폴리오 변화를 분석. 중국 기술주(알리바바, PDD, JD.com)를 저평가 판단으로 신규 매수·확대. 엔비디아, 메타, 우버는 매도/축소. 보잉·Lyft 신규 편입. 진행자는 대형 기술주 상승분이 이미 가격에 반영됐을 수 있다는 헤지펀드들의 시각을 전달.
다듬은 글
one of my favorite investors to follow each quarter is David teer he has this really nice combination of looking for growth and value made a lot of money during the financial crisis betting on big Bank stocks which he said hey you know what the Federal Reserve is going to bail these out he was absolutely right and he's made some really interesting moves over the past year or so notably he was a big person moving into Nvidia when artificial intelligence got hot he is now selling Nvidia but I want to get to not just Nvidia but also the other positions that teer is building building and selling in the quarter we now have information about what he did between the end of 2023 and the end of the first quarter of 2024 so that's what I'm going to dig into today my name is Travis hy the mly fo if you go to ful so let's get right to what the portfolio overall looks like here's a look at what is included in this $6.75 billion portfolio top 10 positions hold 64.7% of the portfolio as of the end of the quarter in total there are 39 stocks down two from a quarter ago and pretty Diversified a lot of investors like teer are going to be betting big on one sector or maybe a couple of stocks but he's actually got pretty good diversification only two stocks are over 10% of the portfolio overall now let's dig into a couple of those here is a look at the changes in the quarter and also the positions these are sorted by market cap and you can see that Alibaba is now the biggest position but this was not a big position a quarter ago this was up 158.2mm first quarter chinesee stocks really got hammered and in large part they got hammered because there was a lot of expectations for weaker than expected growth in 2024 the changes in the economy and the political system means that there may not be as much investment going into China especially from us companies and from other foreign countries growth may be slowing down there's obviously the challenges they have with their population getting a little bit older and so you add all this up and the market sold off a lot of Chinese related companies that is where Tapper saw an opportunity some of these stocks we trading for as little as about 10 times earnings in the first quarter there has been some recovery but there was clearly a point in time when there was a lot of deep value if you're that kind of investor and see opportunity in China so let's dig into the changes in a couple of these on the buy side Alibaba is a position that teer has held for quite a while at least a small position but obviously increased that pretty significantly they actually did have an excess to 10% in the portfolio in 2019 and early 2020 and now upping that again in the most recent quarter let's go to let's go to PDD this is a company that I'm not particularly familiar with so I'm not going to provide a lot of analysis here but going to look at how big this is in the portfolio 1% a year ago now up to about 3.6% of the portfolio trading a little bit in and out of that you can see the share count is what you're seeing in the orange column and then the blue line is the percent of the portfolio BYU is the other one another one kind of in and out of this over the last year or so but now up to about 2.8% of the portfolio there were a couple of other notable positions added specifically in China jd.com that was the other big Chinese name couple of other stocks of note Adobe was acquired during the quarter Boeing and Lyft were also acquired during the quarter those were all new positions for teer so clearly seeing opportunities in China and then seeing some opportunities in some us companies that have been at least beaten up a little bit Lyft and Boeing would be the two notable ones down significantly but they may have sustainable businesses I mean Boeing probably isn't going to go anywhere even though they have a negative headline seeming to come up every day and Lyft is clearly the number two company in ride sharing even though that's not a great position to be longterm so again looking at those kind of value positions from teer but let's also look at what he was selling because that's just as important when you're looking at these fund managers thanks to our friends at the mle fool for sponsoring this video visit fool.com asym for the top 10 stocks to buy right now this is a look at the positions that were reduced or eliminated from the portfolio in the quarter a couple that I want to highlight the first is is NVIDIA Nvidia was one that teer was buying in really big numbers in Q2 of 2023 so this is after the end of q1 going into Q2 increase this from 2.2% of the portfolio to 8% of the portfolio now over that period of time the stock has skyrocketed so despite the fact that the number of shares owned has dropped over 50% this is still 5.9% on the portfolio as of the end of the first quarter now we don't know what happened between the end of the first quarter and today I'm recording this the day that Nvidia is going to report earnings but teer is not the only hedge fund investor who has been selling shares of Nvidia the other big name is Stanley dren Miller he was one that was really talking up Nvidia in 2023 and early 2024 ironically as he was selling shares of the stock so another one selling a pretty big stake in Nvidia not one to hold stocks forever but definitely not one to be holding on to this if there is going to be a Slowdown in demand for artificial intelligence chips meta is the other big sale in the quarter you can see this is down from 11.3% of the portfolio as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2023 now 88.1% of the portfolio one of the things that I always think is interesting with managers like this that are a little bit more active is if you go back back to early 2018 he owned 6.2 million shares of meta platforms if he would have just held on to that position he would have done extremely well but he's obviously been in and out over a period of time adding shares in 2023 when we were in that moment of efficiency for meta that's one of the reasons that the stock has done so well over the past year is Mark Zuckerberg coming out and saying hey we're going to be a much more efficient company we're going to reduce headcount reduce operating expenses that's resulted in better cash flow and net income and we're seeing that in the stock price but he's starting to reduce that position again an investor that's looking for Value so he was buying meta when it was a better value and he's now selling it at a little bit higher price point the other big sale that kind of surprised me was Uber Uber has gone from 6.4% of the portfolio in Q4 2023 to 1.6% as of the end of the first quarter of 2024 another company teer was buying when it was kind of out of favor with the market but Uber has done a great job of getting back to the point where it's now generating net income positive free cash flow seems like a much more sustainable business today than it was just a few years ago and I think ride sharing is really a winner take all market so if they are the winner then Uber is going to be the place to be the interesting Dynamic with Uber specifically is that he is selling shares of uber and buying shares of Lyft so obviously making kind of a value judgment there saying hey maybe a little maybe Uber is a little bit overpriced Lyft is maybe a little bit underpriced that's how I would would read into those positions but again getting in while the stock was cheap and now selling when it's a little bit more expensive you can see why this is one of the investors that I watch each quarter because he seems to be ahead of the curve in a lot of ways buying Nvidia before the stocks really skyrockets buying Uber before the company recovers same thing with meta platforms and now he's selling a lot of those stocks so have we had a lot of The Upside for a lot of these bigger tech companies already priced in that's what a lot of hedge fund and well-known investors are telling us today so something to keep in mind as an investor I thought it was really notable not only the sales but also the acquisition of stocks in China that's an area that I generally stay away from because it's a very risky place to be investing but teer obviously feels different and he's not the only hedge fund manager buying similar shares in China particularly Ali Alibaba has been one of the popular ones over the last few months but what do you think about the changes in ters portfolio leave your comments in the comment section below don't forget to subscribe to aetric investing thanks for watching everybody see you here next time
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