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okay let's talk more about Tesla's Robo taxi now joining us now Kevin paffrath financial adviser and YouTuber meet Kevin Kevin I know you were watching that event very closely as well now you still have some Tesla in a retirement account I know you have it um I believe in one of your ETFs as well um if so as an investor looking at that event last night do you go out there and buy on this dip that you're seeing today well it is so tempting first of all thank you for having me but it is so tempting because when you see a down 8% day logic says by but the reality that we have to think about is look if we're soft landing and the US economy is going to be great for the next 10 years this is the perfect vision that you want this is the 2021 kind of vision that just takes stocks through the roof because everybody's got the Kathy Wood fiveyear time Horizon and don't get me wrong I love Kathy but I'm really worried because Tesla just gave up its midterm recession protection you got to think that the people who buy Teslas are mostly 25 to 40y old guys in finance and Tech and they're the ones that have the biggest risk of losing their job from Ai and the biggest risk of having hardship finding a new job should they get laid off so your clientele is at big risk in a recession you are already at flat year-over-year growth you're plummeting in Europe in terms of growth which happens to be where one of your gigafactories are uh the Wall Street actually was the financial times just showed uh Germany and potentially a 2-year recession and so now you're in a place where you don't have a new product to help you survive the medium term why not introduce the Cyber cab as for sale with the steering wheel wheel and pedals and it says Fleet eligible in the future with the new hardware 5 and you can drive it with your steering wheel like normal you know it'll be be Fleet eligible and you can remove that Hardware in the long term that way Tesla could start mass-producing these next year and actually generate some EPS growth that's substantial to justify this High valuation so were you um you know we we talked about this uh Kevin with some other shareholders I'm not saying they were expecting that Elon Musk was going to make some news at the event with lower price models but they were really hoping for that excited for that were you excited about that kind of new product I thought it was make or break uh I thought if they didn't introduce a lower cost model that could be bought for the midterm I thought that this this essentially would happen and it could potentially start a downtrend I was really hoping that they would have learned that when they when the rumors from Reuters circulated that oh we're not doing the model 2 and the stock tanked in the spring I would have thought logic would have told them okay the shareholders want a cheaper car just give it to them if you can Mass manufacture and you're such an expert in manufacturing manufacture these cars even if you're only going to do so for five or six years before Robo taxis take over have that bridge to get you through a recession because now what you've got are existing models and hope and not much in between that doesn't help you in a recession and you were also right on to point out what Adam Jonas said which is exactly what I thought uh at the event yesterday as well the robots that were probably bolted to the ground and dancing in the Gazebo that nobody could get close to those are pre-programmed likely the robots that are walking around doing handshakes or playing rock paper scissor with folks those are all very likely teleoperated in fact there was someone from Microsoft apparently on Twitter who was suggesting they asked and that they were teleoperated but let Tesla verify that uh and so you don't actually have ai in robots it's very likely that the robo taxis were not using the FSD that we use on the road it was some form of pre-programmed circuit on private roads which means you don't have ai there and the robo van was closer to the ground than China's economy which means one pothole takes that thing out honestly I think that van was mostly clickbait like some form of chassis in a cool frame it looked cool I got seven kids I would love this van I wish Tesla had a you have seven kids yeah we had a little oopsies and and we messed up our fertility timing and we end that's probably more than we need to know that's probably more than we need to know Kevin but that's okay um that is amazing that's an amazing fact to know it's stressful so listen it seems you know it seems obvious the way that you're laying out the way that a lot of these analysts have laid it out that this would be disappointing why do you think that the company didn't realize it needed to deliver more or is it just because that's worked for Tesla historically to to go by this Playbook well I honestly I think it's uh just sort of typical Elon character and and I don't actually see that as a long-term flaw I think a Visionary is typically going to be very stubborn about what they believe the future is and I think that Elon is is correct the future is driverless the future is everything he is is doing he he is so right about the future and I couldn't support him more just the uh it's a little bit of a slap in the face and potentially a recession when you've got the or near recession when the FED is flying so close to the Sun that they cut 50 and yields tighten by 50 and we saw the treasuries all Skyrocket it's nuts uh you're really tightening this economy a lot and Tesla is an interest rate sensitive stock with customers that are going to be most impacted if we go into recession so I think the business side failed here The Innovation side and the vision I'm all for it do I think some of it was probably more show than real technology technology absolutely but honestly it was an exciting event for the vision and it made me excited about wanting to be part of the stock more and investing in it but honestly I'll wait for like a 150 or maybe even a one hand a one 100 handle on the stock before reinvesting Kevin I'm curious if if the future is driverless do you think Tesla do you think Elon Musk has uh certain competitive comp advantages in that market in that race to that future so the answer to that is sort of two-folded the answer corre currently like in a snapshot today is absolutely Tesla has a massive lead But the irony that I think a lot of folks forget is that the better chipsets like nvidia's Blackwell or even the h100s get the better these chipsets get the easier it is for other companies to use Nvidia Drive platform or other platforms and their compute to use less data substantially fewer miles than Tesla has driven and end up getting similar results so interestingly you're up against the clock you know I I first got autopilot from Tesla seven years ago and I bought it because I thought it was the greatest thing ever and I loved it I've been using it for seven years but I remember 7even years ago thinking wow I won't have to drive in three years yeah well now my 2-year-old is nine and I'm still driving and I'm still taking over at knucklehead intersections that FSD just can't read the road signs on and it wants to do silly things it's getting further and fewer between but the reality is that moat Tesla has is shrinking and it's shrinking fast well and Kevin to your point I mean you know we're not quite there yet but maybe you know sooner than you're going to get a Tesla van to stick all your your family in you're going to get a whmo maybe to stick your family in well I think you're right I think in the longer term this the vision that Tesla's trying to pitch is hey uh everybody's going to be able to submit these vehicles to this sort of Robo taxi Network honestly I think in the future if we're going to have Robo taxis driving around I I'm going to be brand agnostic as a consumer an Enthusiast a Tesla investor is going to want the Tesla but everybody else is going to open up an Uber or whatever they don't care if it's a whmo if it's a Cru if it's a Tesla they just want it to show up faster and cheaper and so I think that pricing power in the long term really wains because I mean you see it today and I'm sure we've all done it you open up Uber what 10 minutes away H let me go on lift and if that's 3 minutes away I have zero loyalty to that Uber I feel bad about that but that's going to be how most consumers act and unfortunately that's just going to create a race to the bottom in terms of margins I don't actually see Robo taxi as as profitable as people suggest it will be Kevin always great to have you on the show thank you thank you so much for joining us appreciate it thank you both
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