저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 로보택시·옵티머스 이벤트를 평가. 옵티머스는 대부분 원격 조종일 것으로 추정하고 자율주행 실현까지 약 10년 소요를 예상. 사이버캡은 2026~2027년 양산 가능성은 언급하나 규제 승인 필요, 실제 판매는 2028년경으로 봄. 투명 자율주행 로보밴은 컨셉일 가능성 제기. 깜빡이 미해제 등 소프트웨어 의구심을 제기하며 장기 관점에서는 긍정적이나 단기 EPS 기여는 낮다고 판단.
다듬은 글
wow the robo tax event I have to say was way better than expected very very excited about the robotaxi event uh and I do believe these Optimus robots achieved what they were designed to achieve uh this is footage from the event happening right now as I'm recording this uh looks like this robot's trying to make a heart right here uh I do believe all of the robots right now are human controlled I was expecting them to pass a bag of McDonald's actually I'm 99% sure all of them are controlled with the exception of the the Gazebo robots which were prescripted with sort of a dance which was also very impressive I have to say the actuators the balance of these robots very very good so very impressive demo from the robots even though they're controlled very impressive I love it I like that they're here in with the audience obviously you've got Tesla folks around so nobody pushing buttons or pushing them over or whatever uh let trying to go for a fist bump over here I don't know if they're going to get a reaction here uh depends on uh also sort of depends on what the controller can see and I I I do think they're controlled I suppose there's a chance there's not highly doubt that though uh but anyway Optimus showcase excellent excellent showcase on the Optimus we haven't seen any of these Optimus robots a fall over uh very very impressive uh I I love this these Optimus robots Elon did suggest that you should be able to purchase one for under $30,000 in the future uh and I do think these are going to be a game changer but honestly ly this is going to be like let's be real it's been seven years of trying to build Out full self-driving and maybe we're going to get to unsupervised full self-driving as early as next year depending on Elon time uh which would be good but let's just give it another decade or so before we actually get these Optimus moving on their own right that's that's going to be my prediction so I think we're still probably a decade away on the actual Optimus robots especially since they're likely controlled now so that's the take here but as as far as uh announcements here very impressive your model 3 and Y will achieve unsupervised full self-driving potentially next year in California and Texas for the model 3 and Y now no guarantees obviously this is an Elon prediction here but doesn't surprise me that California Texas might be the first on that uh this is the Warner Brothers lot you do have these Robo taxi cyber cabs driving uh individuals around uh there was only one moment and and some of us in the audience we were joking that you know this is uh uh this is like um what do we call it blinker gate I don't want to sound like the jaded guy and and I'm not trying to be a hater here is actually very very impressed by the event I like the event but I've driven with uh autopilot and FSD long enough to know that FSD is really good at disabling the blinker when there is uh a side road and I understand this side Ro Road right here that this uh Robo taxi that Elon is in preing in it uh as this Robo taxi comes along the side right here there is a an intersection right here that it drives past now it does have a do not inter sign and it does have a vehicle but technically uh you were supposed to disable your blinker when you're passing an intersection and then you reenable the blinker that does not happen here it appears like the blinker stays on now it's hard to say with perfection but it looks like the blinker stays on so you see that's clearly you could potentially turn right there right elon's literally right here praying I don't know if he expected people to find that uh but when you pass here and I suppose it was off between this portion it's hard to tell but it looks like it's on uh oops I clicked way too fast uh you know when I when I click back here you see it I see it flash there and then it's off and then it Flash is again and given that it's on a flash here it probably means it was on starting at least here which is odd now I don't mention that as like a fatal flaw like that's solvable right and and whatever but it does make me curious was this using the real FSD software that we use or is this on its own programmed software that's just a circuit like a roller coaster ride on on the Warner Brothers lot and it's running some kind of custom software suite and it's actually not FSD because FSD would have turned off the blinker and the fact that it didn't implies to me that this is a totally different software suite I could be wrong but that's my observation and it'd be a question that I have now Elon does suggest you'll be able to buy one of these cyber cabs the cool thing about the Cyber cab is it's twood door no steering wheel no gas pedals says you'll be able to buy it and expects it to be under $30,000 now that sort of kills the model 2 idea or it brings the model two together with uh the uh concept of the Cyber cab because this really is a smaller twodo car which is what the model 2 was supposed to be and there's no steering wheel there's just a large screen in the middle uh and uh just like the Bloomberg supply chain analyst suspected they believe that this vehicle uh would uh would be go into mass production in 2027 now Elon suggested it would go into production starting 2026 and then potentially be available ready for mass production in 2027 okay so that does still have implications though because that's going to be subject to regulatory approval so first of all we got Elon time then we got to get through regulation and that's a little problematic too uh so I don't know how quickly this is going to help our numbers for 2025 or 2026 you're really going to have to have like a five-year time Horizon five a fiveyear Time Horizon I I love Kathy okay shout out to Kathy but you're going to need the five-year time Horizon for this one something else that I really liked was the van big fan now I did not like that they wrote this van off this is a 20 person van you can actually see there's no profile at the bottom I don't see Wheels here now it could be under skirting but I'm sused out I actually think this is probably Robo controlled like remote like somebody's controlling this with a joystick and there's like what's underneath this cladding is not a Tesla vehicle at all I think this is just a concept and it's a very cool concept that it could carry 20 people but honestly I think this is probably like a you know uh uh like a dolly uh you know frame of a of a vehicle or whatever that's why they cladded it down basically to the floor this cladding is a red flag to me this is not a functional vehicle for roads uh and the fact that after the event uh after they introduced this sort of Robo van or whatever the fact that they roped it off sused me out out as well because I'm like wait a minute you know so now it's possible the Cyber cab is possibly on its own script because it didn't look like a robotaxi script or an FSD script it's also possible that the robo van is not actually something that's been manufactured uh instead it's just a like a total concept and it doesn't even have a trajectory of being manufactured and that frankly it's probably kind of just clickbait now I'm a little disappointed to say that but you could see it roll up right here is this that's its resting spot I think yeah look at that it looks it looks almost like you see that curb right there I almost think it's like remote controlled cuz it takes forever to make that that final little turn there this looks good that looks cool all the way skirted to the floor somebody's somebody's joystick controlling this is my guess and look at that it almost goes to the curb right there and then they stop early I bet you they wanted to pull it up in the center of the state you see that elon's kind of like he's got his hand kind of like oh stop or whatever I don't know if he says anything there uh but uh watch his hand right here stop say I don't know man yeah look and then they kind of move move it forward just to smidge in more and then they give up uh and then it's cool like a bunch of people come out like that's cool and all but then later when it came time for the event to start and for people to actually get into the uh cyber cabs which are cool don't get me wrong that look right here totally roped off and they literally have an army of Tesla employees 1 2 three four look at this look how tight they are right here like they do not want anyone in there 1 2 3 4 5 six you got and then more people stage side these are a lot of people stay away from the the clickbait basically that that's a little sus uh so okay all right okay all right all right uh you know okay PG says Kevin is overanalyzing uh like this is too much over analyzed listen listen PG okay I may be recording this to repost this segment but that doesn't mean I can't engage with you this is my channel if you don't like it don't watch okay now that that's over let's get to some more the details uh I do like the Cyber cab will cost below $30,000 that you could take care of your fleet of cars we've heard of that idea before uh think individual mass transit cost of 20 cents per miles they did start 50 6 minutes late which is classic Tesla but supposedly they had a medical emergency uh in the audience I did not get Bingo for anybody who cares I did not get Bingo uh I did say we did get Elon wears a black shirt Elon is 10 minutes late or more we got that he didn't jump he didn't talk about Doge uh he didn't or the Maga hat uh Tesla stock did not end over 250 at the end of the event we did not get McDonald's we did not get Airbnb we didn't get a cute couple with a kid going in the robo taxi we didn't get a starlink integration cyber van is re revealed not just under the cover like Sprinter reference the printer I'll give it that because that is a cyber Van Trump didn't show up still don't have Bingo though uh some Robo taxi commitment from a city like Austin or something I gave it that because you kind of have uh this California and Texas possibly to approve unsupervised FSD so I gave it that some iteration of the 25 5K vehicle uh whether it's a model or not and then the model 2 was announced or suggested is coming soon that we basically got the model 2 is the Cyber cab uh which is a plus and a minus oh we didn't get any uh roadst updates which wasn't a big deal anyway but uh it's a plus and a minus because a model like if they said we're going into production on a Model 2 next year it's the Cyber cab with a steering wheel and you could get it for $20,000 okay the stock would Moon because the stock like the stock market has pretty shortterm mindset and and Outlook and they're like oh cool it'll pump EPS until we get to Robo taxis right uh because we're getting the Cyber cab uh you now limit uh instead of getting EPS in 2025 or 26 you have to go forward to 2027 you have to assume regulatory approval by 2027 and then you have to estimate who's going to be the buyer of it uh uh you know uh once you have those approvals so it's a shortterm EPS bad but it's long-term beautiful like long-term I I love it okay I'm I'm a big fan here uh I like what I saw it's not going to help EPS in the short term if you go into a recession you're still going to have a stock hit uh xping announced that they're planning on launching a a robo taxi in 2026 Uber CEO says autonomous ride margins will take years to grow uh let's see here they have 50 autonomous cabs there they said oh this was another prediction that I had that they would end up using a different computer in the Cyber cab and it's true they're using a quote overp speec ai5 computer in the Cyber cab which would kind of reiterate why you probably have this running on a totally different pre-programmed path like I don't I don't act I hate to say it but I don't actually think there's AI in those Robo taxis driving around I think they're pre-programmed uh so I don't think that's FSD and uh yeah not not great now look at this guy super air Niti donated two times $10 to ask me how big my short position is I told you when I started this event but you weren't paying attention cuz he's a hater I told you I don't have a put I don't have a call I have no horse in this race I got nothing betting on this event nada nothing I don't bet on events I it's it's unpredictable what happens at events that's not how I like to trade I like to trade when I see Trends you weeny baby you little weeny baby somebody tries to tell you the truth and you don't like it you're like yeah Kevin said something I didn't want to hear go suck it get out of here and I'm taking your $20 I'm going to take your $20 and then I'm going to short the stock just with those $20 I'm just kidding I'm not going to do that but I will take your $20 uh so uh Elon actually says that this is set up like a park ride at at at like a uh a theme park which to me kind of implied like oh okay so you did indeed pre-program it anyway they did talk about inductive charging now initially I didn't actually think inductive charging was a good idea and I kind of still don't because the loss factor is huge when you uh charge a device actually right now I'm charging this through inductive charging they get very warm uh and that's because you're losing about 30 to 40% of the electricity so I think your miles per gallon on a robotaxi will actually go to crap with inductive charging unless they really perfect uh inductive charging the magnet charging uh so look it up the loss rate is like 30 to 35% on inductive uh so it's doable but I and I don't know this maybe an electrical engineer can chime in on this but I think the further you are away uh from the the charging mechanism the more loss you have so you know I don't know if like an inductive charger has to like come up out of the ground to like charge the car and like directly contact the car probably but or if there's just going to be a large enough field and the car is low enough but then I feel like the loss is going to be like 50% so I'm not convinced about that so that's it so I mean look my take overall uh and you could copy my bingo card or my notes off ec.com I'm not trying to sell you anything I got nothing for you to sell and like I said I don't have any long or short you know positions on this event calls puts whatever um my long and short of the event to use that phrase is uh it was very impressive uh I I did like what I saw and I love the vision they painted uh I don't think we're close enough to realistically price in the earnings per share and because we've basically now basically we confirmed the death of the model 2 right like the model 2 is basically confirmed dead now so if the model 2 is confirmed dead then we have to delay a sales boost until the Cyber cab is regulatorily approved uh and given that this was probably on a script you probably have to really have that unsupervised FSD in California and Texas go really well uh if that unsupervised FSD which is step one goes really well then you can install that on the rooc cab that'd be sort of my expectation so I think probably 2028 is more realistic which is actually a lot earlier than I thought for a robo taxi I I didn't think it was going to happen this decade I thought it would be at least 2030 I think they might be closer here uh so I think that's good I think the van is a cool idea but it's it's not probably until 2030 plus we didn't get any updates on the semi which I was a bit bummed about and yeah I guess that's sort of uh my take uh my take those are my thoughts appreciate yall being here and and watching with me and uh hopefully you like uh my ideas uh anyway thank you so much folks and we wi
Comments 0