저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 로보택시 데이 전후 전망. 로보택시 대량생산은 2027~2028년으로 봄. 행사 자체보다 저가형 Model 2 공개 여부가 주가의 핵심 변수이며, 공개 시 295~300, 미공개 시 220 이하(최대 195) 하락을 예상. 현재 밸류에이션(PER 약18, PEG 약3.3)은 과도하다고 평가. 경기침체 확률을 약 85%로 보며 비관적 거시 시각을 밝힘.
다듬은 글
What will happen at Tesla RoboTaxi Day? In this video, I will detail what to expect, what not to expect, and make predictions about stock movements. Will they grow? Will they fall? What does the valuation say about this ? All this and much more. Let's begin. First of all, I will be covering the RoboTaxi event tomorrow, October 10th.
I'll be doing this from the studio so we can add live commentary and cover everything that's going on. Of course, the first thing we expect to see is almost certainly a purpose-built robotaxi. Tesla has been developing it for many years, and we expect this to be a kind of first presentation of a steering wheel-less device.
This will be an expensive prototype. This is not a mass-produced device . It is probably equipped with ultra-modern, energy-intensive equipment not intended for consumers. Mostly because it has to work flawlessly. Honestly, I expect we'll see a concept design for robo-taxis, but it will be many years before we can actually ride them on public roads.
I think the presentation itself will go flawlessly. So, this is a purpose- built robotaxi. This will not be the case when you open the app and add your car to the robotaxi network. Perhaps we will hear talk about this and even see the functionality of the application, where it will be said: in the future you will be able to add your car to the robotaxi network.
But, in my opinion, we should not expect this on current consumer car hardware, because it will be until 2027-2028 before the large-scale launch of robo-taxis, which will become a real threat to Lyft or Uber and will be available, like Waymo today . Prospects for Tesla without geographical restrictions are probably expected closer to 2027-2028.
One reason for this claim is that a Bloomberg analyst who tracks Tesla's supply chain says their latest survey suggests that Tesla's robotaxi, or CyberCab, could enter mass production in the first quarter of 2027. And since production is still a long way off, expectations for this event may be a bit high.
There are other comments here, and I don't necessarily agree on whether stocks will go up or down just because of this. I think most Tesla investors are pretty sensible , they understand that it's promising, but there's still a lot of work to do. Yes, there is a chance that the current equipment may not be able to handle it.
Honestly, that's completely understandable. I understand that some of us will say, "We were promised that we could take our current Tesla and add it to the robotaxi network." This is unlikely to happen. However, I think we will see a flawless event. After all, it will take place on the closed grounds of the Warner Brothers studio, with clear markings and signs, without tricky situations or unique exceptions.
There will be no difficult cases here. They literally won't put their Cybercab in difficult conditions. First, legally they can't, and second, Warner Brothers territory is just simple left and right turns. Honestly, I'd be surprised if we even saw a left turn, and I wouldn't be surprised if the signage was freshly painted, because Elon would happily spend money on Warner Brothers to update it and make the launch perfect.
And, frankly, that's fair—there's a lot at stake. This will be the most controlled Tesla launch we've ever seen, as Elon is essentially betting everything on robotaxi and FSD. So everything has to go perfectly. It doesn't have to be like the Cybertruck. Oh, I broke the bulletproof glass. For a robotaxi, everything has to go flawlessly.
At least the demonstration itself, which will probably look like this: first they will introduce the car. You will see a new look for a two-door car. You will hear loud applause. They will tell you why it is a two-door: most trips are made with only one passenger, so four doors are not necessary. Other versions may appear in the future , but we will start with a two-door to cover the mass market.
Elon will then invite guests and other YouTubers to ride the robotaxi, perhaps taking a short trip to pick up McDonald's from a mock kiosk , where an Optimus robot will deliver the food package to you. And then you have to grab the package, and hopefully the robot will let go of it just as you're picking it up so it doesn't fall to the floor.
It's really no risk for McDonald's. There will be so many eyes watching this event. McDonald's sales will increase tomorrow. This is a win-win situation for McDonald's, and it's actually a good idea , if the rumors about McDonald's involvement are indeed true. I suspect they will be involved, and I think it will be really cool.
I think this will most likely go flawlessly. I really think Optimus coming out and serving you food would be really cool. But I want to be that cynical person and I want to apologize for that , but it will be run by a human. It'll still be impressive, because it'll demonstrate Optimus' functionality: he'll walk and not fall, he'll walk faster and, you know, he won't shake.
The ability to use arms and servos inside the case is very effective. I would like to see some nice 3D printed parts so that he doesn't look like a robot, but rather like a friendly droid helper. I think you will see it, and observing the operation of its actuators will be very important. So smoothness is important here, not the jitteriness we previously saw in Optimus.
I think you'll see it. Again, I think there will be someone in a headset and with a remote control somewhere in a window or some room around the corner on the studio premises. After all, this is studio territory. We know how to set the right perspective here. Okay. So, everything will probably go very smoothly.
I think you will have very short trips on these robo-taxis. No driver, no steering wheel. I don't think there will even be a driver- operator, because, frankly, that would be inappropriate. Someone will have an emergency stop button to turn it off remotely, but this is private property, so driver operators are not needed, because you can do almost anything on private property.
But always remember: always stand behind Alec Baldwin. Anyway, okay. So, having said that, everything will be well- directed and it will be very difficult for this event to go badly. Now, what's actually much more important here is the Model 2. No, but not the Roadster. I'll talk about the Roadster in just a moment.
In fact, at the Robo Taxi event, what will be much more important is not the Robo Taxi itself. This won't be the main event. This event will actually be about, oh please, God, give us this good news. Give us the greatness of the Model 2. I understand that Elon Musk is focused on robo-taxis and all that , but, friends, we need volume.
We need Tesla to churn out cars like in the good old days of 2021-2022, when we believed in Tesla's success. We're going to copy factories, and there will be 10 million of these beauties on the roads. Bro, I'm tired of not being able to be happy with Tesla's delivery figures. Yes, we have a recession in Europe.
We have a recession in the United States. We will have a negative annualized figure . Elon dances on stage with Trump. Elon is promoting, you know, everything except Tesla's production capacity. So, I think this event will come down to whether Elon will at least give us a try, even out of the corner of his eye.
Well, baby. At least a little. At least try. I want to feel this taste . I just ate a bunch of, uh , roasted macadamia nuts. So delicious. Anyway, that's what this event will really be about. You have to introduce a cheaper Model 2. Elon knows, and Elon's team knows, how badly Tesla and its stock have been hurt by the cancellation or rumors of the Model 2 cancellation, which has been effectively confirmed.
Therefore, the easiest way to raise Tesla shares to $300 is to simply introduce the damn Model 2 for $25,000-$30,000. Return to the $25,000 car. It's a little risky because if you say you can pre-order soon, you're taking customers away from the Model 3 and Model Y. So you have to do it carefully, but I think they'll do it like this : Model 2 is coming soon.
This is what she looks like. She is not ready yet. We will open pre-orders and hold a presentation later. We don't know when, but perhaps in early 2026 we will start mass production, partly on existing lines and partly with a new assembly strategy. Honestly, in my opinion, this is enough to help Wall Street raise its growth forecasts for 2026, help increase Tesla's projected earnings per share, and then Tesla stock could actually go even higher than it already has.
Because, honestly, volatility is surprisingly low right now. 10- day historical volatility, which is good if you wanted to buy options ahead of this event. I think many people think that the principle of "buy on rumors, sell on facts" will work. In fact, I think if they successfully hold a presentation and show off the Model 2, the stock could very well go up.
You know, if I had to guess, I would say that the price of 265 after tomorrow's event is quite realistic. And if you can overcome the 265 mark, you can reach 295 and 300. You know, this will be your next barrier. Unless, of course, they ignore all of this and there's some kind of disaster at the robotaxi launch, or unless they forget about the basics and the Model 2 balance sheet.
Well, then, of course, the stock will fall below 220, and that's unlikely to last long, because eventually the market will again consider whether there will be a recession. And now, stock and bond markets are not pricing in a recession. The probability of a recession, which stock and bond markets are pricing in now, is less than 15%.
No one has protection from falling in the event of a recession. It seems like everything is just hitting new highs right now, which is good if there's no recession. But it would be terrible if a recession did occur. In any case, Tesla's current valuation of $245 with projected earnings per share of $2.26 gives a P/E ratio of around 18, which is a lot, but you have excellent growth prospects.
And, to be honest , I keep seeing these growth projections and I notice that they are gradually increasing. Okay, I have to give Tesla credit. You have 130% growth for the next four years. And if you divide that, it comes out to an average of about 32.56%. Average annual growth . That's pretty good.
And if you now divide that by the P/E ratio, you get a PEG ratio of about 3.3, which is simply ridiculous for a manufacturing company like Tesla. Even if you were, you know, a purely FSD company, well , okay, maybe it's a multiple of 26, but honestly, you're valued at at least twice as much right now as you would be worth.
And the only way to justify that valuation increase is to introduce the Model 2. So if we don't get the Model 2 tomorrow, the stock will fall. And I already see these comments. I know people are going to whine that this wasn't announced as a Model 2 event. This man is a robot. Sorry. Good. There is just so much bile, hatred, and anger on the internet.
I just have to fight back . It makes it easier for me. Okay. Anyway, no, I'm serious, I'm a long-term bull for Tesla, but we need a Model 2. We need a Model 2. We need it. That would be the easiest way to raise the price to $300. There will be robotaxi too, but in the meantime we will increase earnings per share thanks to Model 2.
That's all. This would make the event awesome. Good. Roadster. Of course. Good. You may be able to pre-order the Roadster in late 2025. I think it's probably 60 percent. It's a Model S on steroids. Perhaps a smaller, two-door coupe , 0 to 100 in 1.4 seconds. Regarding the Roadster. You know, I don't think the Roadster will have any fundamental impact on the situation.
No, the Roadster will disappoint , but it will have little impact on the stock. Model 2 is much more important. You know, from the latest regarding prices: currently the Tesla loan is at 5.29%, but if you take out FSD, they lower the rate to 0%, which is pretty good. And they have reduced the price of the FSD from $ 8,000 to $7,000 for existing stock.
Personally, and I understand this may be an unpopular opinion, I would lower the price of the FSD to almost nothing, well, let's say $1,000 or $2,000. I would experiment with these numbers to see where to find a balance depending on the price elasticity of demand to get the most out of it. But 8,000 is too expensive.
The utilization rate will be around 7%. This is very little. And that's pure profit, right? So bring it to a level where the utilization rate is around 90%. Um, and just give me, you know, 10 times $2,000. Now I get $20,000 instead of $6,000, right? Or $8,000, it doesn't matter. So, you know, that's a sign to me that they're still having to leverage demand to try to not go into the red year-over-year this year.
But I think the markets have already largely factored in the fact that we will be in the red on an annualized basis. That's why you need the Model 2 to be unveiled tomorrow, and you need a flawless FSD presentation. One reason you really need a flawless FSD presentation is the corporate layoffs we've seen in recent weeks.
And it's not like it's terribly unusual for Tesla to see corporate layoffs, but there have been a lot of them. OK. I mean, Tesla's CFO resigned 5 days before the robotaxi event. The head of automotive programs resigned 12 days before the event. The head of the public policy department resigned 10 days before the event.
These are all layoffs on autopilot, you know, when they started and where they've gone now . Although I don't know if it's necessarily that terrible, because usually in tech companies a lot of corporate layoffs are the result of recruiting or poaching. So it 's not a terrible surprise to me that, you know, that guy went to Nvidia, that guy went to Cruise, that guy went to Scale, that guy went to BU, that guy went to Outel Robotics, you know, Waymo, what else do we have here?
Plus Amazon, Nvidia, Waymo, Nvidia, Nvidia, Aurora, Aurora, Nvidia, Aurora, Nvidia, this is not Apple, you know, no Nvidia. This is not a surprise. Such corporate layoffs are very, very normal. This is the world of technology, you know? It's like, you take your shares, you take your salary, okay? And let's say you have $ 5 million worth of Tesla stock and a $300,000 salary, you know, and then Nvidia comes to you and says, "How about $20 million worth of stock and a $500,000 salary?" You absolutely don't care how great the robotaxi event is or isn't.
You say, "See you later." You know, that's how it is. So I don't really think these layoffs are a sign of a market downturn. A little potential, probably not, but a little potential there is. You get wireless charging. I do n't really think we've reached that level yet. Losses during wireless charging are about 40%.
It would just consume so much energy in vain, dissipating it into the air. I don't think that's possible at all . Maybe Optimus will try to hook up Tesla, but I think that's a bad idea because it's unlikely to lead to anything worthwhile. Regarding the Cybertruck, they may reiterate that the price for non- Foundation Series versions will be below $80,000.
This is great. But it's still difficult when consumers' purchasing power is limited. In fact, the only obstacle for robotaxi will be regulatory permits. And I understand people saying, " Kevin, but it's safer to have robo-taxis, and regulators will have to approve them." I understand that people think that way, but the reality is: all it takes is one death or one serious accident, or worse, a fatal accident, to postpone the introduction of robotaxi indefinitely.
So I agree with the analysts that Tesla will probably start testing in many locations across the country by 2027, by the end of 2027. Maybe they will conduct a pilot test and launch it in 2025, for example in Austin, Texas. Big deal. Well, you'll have 10 Tesla robo-taxis in Austin. This won't change anything fundamentally.
But this will lay the foundation for broader implementation by 2027. So, another two and a half years of waiting. And it's unlikely that robo-taxis will become ubiquitous for another ten years, that is, until 2034. So I don't see this as a huge source of income. And that's why I say that tomorrow, despite the name " robot taxi day" or whatever it is , it all comes down to the Model 2.
Some people have asked me what I think about the risks for Uber or Lyft. Of course, these stocks could fluctuate due to news from Tesla, but honestly, I think the risks for them are relatively low over the next five years. They're already partnering with Waymo and other companies to give you driverless rides, which is actually pretty smart, because in robotaxi, what people value most is speed.
So how quickly will the car arrive? Honestly, I think most people think that the cost of Uber and robotaxi would be about the same, right? So as you scale up the number of robotaxi, you will see the cost per mile for both options decrease in this competitive deflationary cycle. The reality is that most people, outside of the enthusiast community, don't care one bit whether someone is driving a car or a robotaxi.
They are simply trying to get from point A to point B in relative safety and comfort. It's that simple. So, people will choose the cheapest and fastest option. And it does n't matter whether it's a human driver, Uber, or a robotaxi. It all comes down to which app people open first to request a ride, and whether it arrives before the person opens another app to request another ride and cancels the first one, you know?
This is exactly how the consumer will behave. This is not how an investor in Tesla would act , but it is how a consumer would act. So that's my realistic view. I'm not placing any bets on that. Personally, I apologize. I'm a bit pessimistic about the whole economy right now. This has nothing to do with Tesla.
Personally, I believe that the probability of a recession is directly opposite to what the market is predicting. The market is pricing in an approximately 85% probability of a "soft landing." I give about an 85% probability of recession. So, excuse me, okay? It's just, you know, a pessimist Kevin. I hope I'm wrong , because if I am, it will be great for all my startups.
Yes, my startups don't want a recession. But if I'm right, this will be bad for startups. That is, we will cope, but I will simply buy assets during the decline at lower prices. But I will say that some of the estimates are a bit inflated right now. And probably from a valuation perspective, if you don't get the Model 2, the downside risks are much greater.
So , I'll make a few predictions. Let me put it this way: if we get the Model 2 and everything goes as I predict, we expect 295. That means the Model 2 is coming soon. Cheaper prices. We are returning to volume growth. Robotaxi will appear, but we are focusing on volumes. That would be a real godsend .
OK. Over 295, although the estimate is strange. The downside is that Model 2 was not mentioned at all . No teasers, no hints. 195. Of course, 220. Of course, 220. 220—that's almost certain. It's easy. 195—also possible . In any case, I 'll keep it. I have no personal interest in tomorrow's events. I love you.
And if you are in stocks, I wish you success. If you wait for the drop to buy on the dip—great. I love you. I will always be here to share my opinion. We may not always agree , but know this: even if it's unpopular, I'm just going to express my honest, sincere opinion and keep appearing here. This is the best I can do.
I appreciate you all. Why not happy to hear your opinion. While future specifically for making an partnershipctively managed ETFs . I may personally own or have do not act ing, be sure to check out PPM at houseack.com.
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