펀드스트랫 톰 리: 민주당 블루웨이브가 주식에 긍정적인 이유

요약 보기

CNBC 기고자인 펀드스트랫의 톰 리는 민주당의 상·하원 석권(블루 쓰나미)이 시장에 나쁘다는 우려와 달리 주식에 긍정적인 결과라고 봅니다. 워싱턴이 협상 국면에 들어서고, 연준이 금리 인상 압박에서 벗어나 더 독립적으로 움직일 수 있다는 점을 근거로 듭니다. 데이터센터 관련 잡음은 주정부 세수 효과로 잦아들 것이며, 오늘의 하락은 과잉반응이라고 평가합니다. 헤지펀드의 기술주 재진입으로 강한 반등이 나올 수 있고, 하이퍼스케일러가 혜택을 볼 것이라고 전망합니다. 금융과 산업재에도 긍정적 시각을 밝혔습니다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. CNBC contributor fund strats Tom Lee. He's here at Post 9. What do you make of this reaction in the market? Uh I I think it's healthy. Um and it's kind of expected. I know a lot of people thought a blue tsunami might be bad for markets, but uh there's many reasons why this is actually a positive outcome for stocks.

02. I mean, among them was you and Liz covered a lot of that, but one is I think it's going to force Washington to sort of now negotiate, which is a good thing. I think that's actually healthy. But I think one thing that people haven't talked enough about is the fact that this might also take pressure off the Fed.

03. I think the Fed now can work more independently. We don't have to worry about FOMC members doing credibility hikes. I think that's the reason why markets can also rally pretty strong. If I recall correctly, I think you were one of those who suggested yes, you're going to have a lot of noise on data centers, but you're going to get beyond the election and then it's going to die down as people are politicking a little bit less.

04. almost feel like maybe we're going to see the opposite given some of the results particularly down in in Texas. What do you think now as these stocks are obviously paying a price today? Yeah, I I think there's a knee-jerk reaction cuz people have to find something to sell to buy uh what they want to own.

05. But, you know, as you guys are talking about downstream AI applications, compute's going to get scarce if everyone starts using tokens and then prices will go up and then we're going to talk about bottlenecks again. And of course, uh there's going to be many states that will welcome uh this investment.

06. So I I actually think the AI uh as the days pass, the AI trade's very much alive. I think communities really do want money to come in and but just on their terms and I think it's really healthy to talk about AI safety, which was a voting issue. And then look at crypto. Crypto's rallying because as you know, the Democrats are now pushing crypto legislation, which they opposed just before the midterms.

07. Now they want to actually pass crypto legislation. What if even a Super Bowl like Dan Ies is not naive to the issues that now exist regarding data centers? 10% he says will not happen now. What if he's right? Uh well you know um he's always bullish. Yeah you okay. Yes. But AI is going to continue to do astounding discoveries.

08. You know um the frontier models are solving health problems. They're going to be solving agricultural issues. This requires compute. It's going to I think the conversation is going to turn towards AI is actually again good for the US. Who's going to turn that conversation cuz I mean we Liz Anne Saunders referenced it.

09. There were like 40 plus ballot measures in various states and they all got voted away. Yeah. I think every state's going to look at their budgets and realize a lot of the revenues that would come in are for these huge investments uh coming from data centers. I mean, you know, it's going to be hard to find uh other projects that replace the sheer dollars that these things bring.

10. Like, you know, are the states these 44 states going to bring in a bunch of hotels and car dealerships? You know, I mean, that's a very saturated market, but data centers bring in real money and a lot of dollars. So I I think the conversation is is easily going to turn. I do think it's an overreaction today.

11. So the the Citadel note which I referenced earlier, this sets the stage, Scott Robner said, for investors to rebuild equity exposure into year end. If they do that, how does that exposure look? Is it is it broad like some are suggesting and maybe the market today is trying to express itself as? Well, I think we have to keep in mind that probably 50% of all hedge funds are TMT.

12. uh and technology had a huge correction. I don't think they're going to go out and buy Coca-Cola. I think they're going to dive back into the tech trade. So, to me, I think I I agree with the Citadel note, but I think a lot of this is going to be a a very very strong tech rally that looks like the one we had after the situation awareness sell off.

13. So, it's at least 15%. You know, tech could rally 20% from here. led by the hyperscalers which needs Laura Martin talks about today. We believe higher regulatory barriers entrench incumbents and increase risks. Hyperscalers are AI incumbents. They're the ones who are going to benefit. That's clearly what the market thinks today.

14. Yeah, that's right. And as as they as they benefit and compute gets expensive, people are going to suddenly want more chips and they're going to realize there's a bottleneck with data centers. And I think states are going to have a budget need that they want to fill with the with this money. So, I think it's all going to come back very strongly before year end.

15. What do you like best outside of tech? Uh, well, I think financials are a clear beneficiary of I think what looks like a calming rate market and a market that actually is opening the bond market again and capital markets opening. So, I think the financials are really attractive and then I think that this drop in energy prices is quite good for industrials because and consumers well I think discretion is rallying but the industrials are again the ISM's above 50.

16. There's really good earnings visibility. The industrials should be doing a lot better.