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선거 직후 다우는 약 3%, 나스닥은 2% 넘게 올랐다. 민주당이 상·하원을 모두 차지해 정책은 교착 상태가 될 것으로 전망된다. 시타델의 스콧 루브너는 이번 선거를 '클리어링 이벤트'로 보며, 낮은 포지셔닝, 기업 수요, 개인 매수, 중간선거 이후 계절성이 결합해 연말까지 주식에 우호적이라고 봤다. 토론자들은 이란 전쟁이 빨리 끝나면 유가와 금리가 내려갈 수 있다고 보는 한편, 트럼프 행정부가 승리를 얻기 위해 이란에 공격적으로 나설 가능성도 거론했다. AI 거래에 대해서는 전면적인 회복이 아니라 선별적 흐름이라는 평가가 나왔다. 민주당의 승리가 데이터센터 신규 투자 제한으로 이어질 수 있어 엔비디아와 공급망 기업은 부진한 반면, 용량을 이미 확보한 하이퍼스케일러는 강세를 보였다. 데이터센터 관련 주민투표도 대부분 부결되었고, 골드만 등은 계획된 데이터센터 용량의 상당 부분이 영향받을 수 있다고 분석했다. 시장 상승은 매그니피센트 세븐, 헬스케어, 대체투자 운용사 등 종목 구성에 따른 측면도 크다고 지적됐다.
다듬은 글
We got a huge gain uh on our hands. Obviously, look at the Dow up almost 3%. NASDAQ's good for more than two. Uh S&P obviously looks great as well. You get the Dem sweep. Uh gridlock on policy, clean election, no messy challenges, hope for a quicker end of the Iran war. Oil down, maybe rates come down too uh as a result of all of that.
And not to be overlooked, the clearing event that some have certainly talked about. Citadel Scott Rubner today. This sets the stage, he says, for investors to rebuild equity exposure into year end. Combination of light positioning, returning corporate demand, persistent retail buying, and a historically favorable postmidterm seasonality creates a compelling setup for equities into the end of the year.
Do you agree? I like all of that. I like the fact that you said it's a clearing event. I believe that's absolutely what it is. And I think that inflation lost last night. I think inflation lost and we're seeing it reflected today in the price of energy. I think the fever has broken in the energy trade.
Um I would be very surprised to see oil spike back up to $100 once again. I think it's time to pair back positioning in energy. I also think this is obviously very good for the Federal Reserve. I think this allows them the opportunity to fight inflation if they need to. not with the brush back from the president and his administration.
He will have the the Federal Reserve will clearly have the support of both the Senate and and Congress. So, I think this is a direct hit on inflation and I think it's reflected in what we're seeing today. So, Weiss, you've been, you know, increasingly more uh I guess cautious if not conservative in your view of of where you thought the market was going.
What about now? I mean, do you agree with Rubner sets the stage for investors to rebuild equity exposure? Maybe he's talking a little bit about you. It's a compelling setup, he says, for equities into the year end. Okay. I I don't disagree, but you tell me what Trump's going to do with Iran. He's got basically two months to do it.
So once the Democrats coming in come in, it's going to be a lot tougher. My view is that I think there's more than a reasonable probability that he does something aggressive with Iran so he can call that a victory, which he's in sorely need of. So that puts a damper on it. It puts a damper on, you know, on the inflation story.
It puts a damper on the rate story. So to me, that's, as I said the other day, a black swan event that's likely to happen. Yeah. Well, I mean, you think it's likely to happen because more likely than not. If he does that, oil doesn't go down, it goes up. That's my point. And rates go up, right? But I think some others would argue that's the whole point about why he may not do that now.
And that some are viewing what happened last year. as as a hope now for a quicker end to the war in which oil prices come down, yields come down, and then all of that with so many other things just combined for a good year-end run. I think it's more likely than not that he does something aggressive with Iran.
Okay, it's the one victory he has to hold on to. And as Vance said, it's the Iran war. So, because the Iran war did it, you've got to show victory there, not leaving there with your tail behind. No, he's talking I mean Vance was talking about the Iran war leading to the spike in gas prices. Right. Right.
The Iran war led to the spike in gas prices which led to increased cost of living which led to the Republicans going saying I don't want to vote for this for this party anymore because it's cost me a lot more money. But let's go to the AI trade because it's not the all clear. what it is and I said this last night to to uh to to one of my colleagues is that and I was skeptical the market would see it the market is seeing the democratic victory as forced control on capbacks.
So in other words they won't be able to spend what they committed to spending if there's a moratorum for any period of time on new data centers particularly in Texas where 30% of all projects are. So, and if you look at it, it's exactly what the market's telling you. It's not telling you all clear. It's telling you that we want to go back into those companies because they will be what they used to be, not what they are now.
Which is why you've got Nvidia down, which is why you've got Taiwan Semi down, which is why you've got all the providers in the supply chain taking on gas today and the hyperscalers which buy from that supply chain doing well. So, look at Micron about to break 800. when have we seen that? So to me, the market's more discerning.
It's not the AI trade is back on because it's not. Well, it depends. Maybe it's a bifurcated AI trade. You look at the hyperscalers which some today view as the incumbents in the the conversation like Neamm's Laura Martin. We believe higher regulatory barriers entrench incumbents and increase risks and raise required ROIC return on invested capital for new entrance.
Hyperscalers are the AI incumbents. BFA there's potential that companies with the most existing and already permitted capacity such as Amazon could realize higher medium-term revenue. So those who already have uh capacity, those who are already permitted to get more are going to be the winners. At least the market's placing its bets.
You look at the hyperscaler gainers today. I mean really Apple's up almost 7%. So is Microsoft that's a record high. Amazon. It's almost like matching gains. So Apple, Amazon, and and Microsoft. Alphabet's good for four. Meta is sort of the drag up two and a third. And obviously Nvidia is probably caught up in a little bit of the data center issue and all the concerns around that.
But that's because they neutralize the spending advantage that Meta and the others have. So Apple, they haven't spent on data centers. They haven't done any of that. So you've you've created another mode around them which is that if you're thinking if you need to build data centers to affect your your revenue target etc.
Forget it. It's off the table. Be satisfied with what you have. Is this a is this a like a sort of blowoff anxiety thing in the market today? Does this feel like it's going to have followth through as I said at the very top? So it was clean. It wasn't messy. You're not going to have challenges for days and weeks.
Yes. There's got to be some hope of a a quicker resolution to the war. Oil and yields come down. You're going to have gridlock obviously on on policy. Demskin, even if they have both houses do what they think they want to do, uh they don't have enough votes to overcome a veto on anything significant.
Anyway, yeah, I I think you you mean everybody's listed off a number of reasons. I do agree with one thing that Steve said, which was the the capbacks being reigned in. I mean, this this buildout, and that's why the hyperscalers are certainly um capitalizing today. I I do think you know you've seen the semiconductors themselves struggle for the last several months and and this isn't new news.
I mean you've seen from the from the odds pricing in a dem sweep better than 50% going back 2 3 months ago. I mean it was upwards towards I think 70% going back a couple weeks ago. That's what we're seeing this AI infrastructure trade trade very very heavily over the past few weeks. But I do think there's a lot of tailwinds.
I mean I I like to look at it as the uncertainties are now removed. the uncertainties of the election just simply knowing the results. Not that the results are favorable for any any one sector, but but I do see they are favorable. You're seeing the names rally again, the hyperscalers, you're seeing the broadening trade move out a bit.
Um I I think Well, what do you mean not that the results slow down for a second? What do you mean the results are not favorable or unfavorable for any given sector? The market's obviously thinking that it's unfavorable for the data center sector if you want to put it on that subsect of the AI trade.
Yes, I I was saying that the the clearing event, if you will, or the uncertainties themselves have to pass. So So for that, it's it doesn't matter necessarily what sector I think getting past the election was going to be bullish. If there was more of a uh a split a split Senate, I mean, Senate if the Republicans won the Senate and then the market could have rallied and tech could have led to the upside from there.
It was just moving past this event and then we'll start to see complications in in the future weeks. Do we get through the Iran war? I I think one of the one of the great point is maybe Iran achieved what they were looking to do, drag this war out through the midterms and and you start to you see the US public vote against this administration.
Um that's become a tailwind. Crude oil is down to 88 and a half right now. You're seeing oil come down pretty significantly. I know Joe cited that yields are coming down. I think that's something that that as well it's makes inflation not a real problem for the Fed if they're starting to forecast out 6 months.
So there's a bunch of great tailwinds here. heard a lot of conversation going in that just get through the midterms and then a lot of the noise around the data center thing is going to die down. Uh maybe those people who were saying that didn't anticipate Texas flipping uh the governorship obviously there there's some big implications especially there you look at all the AI power names let's show them all uh because they were right as we were coming on there getting hit rather substantially virtually every instance where there was a data center measure on the ballot voters rejected them and that is why you have what you have doubledigit percentage losses across the board in at least 29 jurisdictions across the country.
Either passed bans or restrictions on data centers. Even somebody who normally tries to see the glass the glass, excuse me, as 3/4 full, not just half, but 3/4. Dan Ies says, quote, "Democratic title wave across the Senate and House was a seismic shift that will have a negative impact on the pace of the AI revolution buildout in the US over the next few years.
will slow the pace of the planned data centers across the US, fueling the AI revolution. Some investors will like the quote unquote slower pace. Others view it as adding risk. We estimate 10% of data centers will now not happen. Goldman, Evercore, Wolf, Morgan, Stanley, everybody is weighing in on this issue.
Goldman says it potentially affects 45% of planned data center capacity expansion. What do you think? It's clear that those that are that have the commu compute that those that have the compute being built out currently and already contracted compute are favored over those building out the compute. There's no no question about it.
Those that are supplying that you look at all the neoclouds versus the hyperscalers. You look at all the chips right show all those digital realy which we just showed. Uh there are so many names in this complex today that are reacting to this. I mean I recall, weren't you? You were one of the people, weren't you?
I mean, Vista is one of your largest positions. It has been for the last handful of years. And it has and this is clear. This is clearly a huge setback. But I feel like you were one of those who was in part making the argument that just get through the midterms and I think a lot of this noise is going to go away.
If anything, it feels like maybe now the noise gets even louder. I think it does because of the nature of the outcome. I mean, Texas is great is a great embodiment of of what has happened. Now, the reason you're seeing the large disfavor the large in the already built out, number one, they have businesses that can support their continued operations regardless.
Their financing costs likely come in because there's less competition with for capital with less buildout. Um, you know, it favors scale. It favors the political capital that they have. um it favors their flexible capital allocation. And so what's happening today on the surface makes a lot of sense to me given the outcome.
It makes a lot of sense in financials. It makes a lot of sense in healthcare. It makes a lot of sense with what is selling off in energy in the others. I mean, I think what's happening should be happening writ large though when I made that statement usually when you get beyond uh beyond the midterms you have and it's and it's divided you usually have powerful arguments for upside obviously last night's obviously an an inflection point of some respects in terms of the you know the political wins in in this country AI loss but is it for infrastructure you think it's an inflection point in for the market itself Well, no, because look who the winners are.
No, but I'm just saying. I mean, the market's obviously ripping. Now, there may be a lot, but think about why why that is. It's because of the constituents of the market. What is ripping? 50% of the market is basically ripping in all the mag seven. You've got a lot of the healthc care names doing tremendously well.
You've got some of the financials doing reasonably well. I mean, you see like the alts managers today. Yeah. Holy moly. I mean, Blackstone 6%, KKR is six, Apollo, Aries, go down the list. Uh, the big banks doesn't look good. JPM up four, Goldman 3 and a half. Makes complete complete sense.
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