저자: CNBC Television · 외국인
요약 보기
패널들은 민주당의 하원 장악이 거의 확실하며, 상원 향방에 따라 정부가 나뉘는 교착이 이어질 수 있다고 보았다. 일부는 교착이 시장에 오히려 우호적이라고 평가했지만, 다른 이는 이런 환경이 변동성을 키운다는 근거가 부족하다고 반박했다. 엘리엇의 레버리지 경고에 대해서는 단일 거래의 레버리지 위험을 인정하면서도 우량 채권의 높은 수익률과 견조한 기업 이익을 강조했다. 반도체 업종은 향후 이익 추정치가 크게 늘어나는 반면 주가는 정점 신호를 보인다는 괴리가 쟁점으로 떠올랐다.
다듬은 글
Now. Solas is Dan Greenhouse, Alexandra Wilson Elizondo from Goldman Sachs, Cameron Dawson from New Edge. It's nice to have everyone here. Uh, we could hold a midterm election first. I mean, do you feel like there's a lot of volatility on the other side ? Does thoroughness equal a more volatile market or what?
I don't think so. We discussed this before. What is decisive? Almost certainly, if not, I would bet dollars to donuts as we say that the Democrats will take the House of Representatives. This seems like a given. The only question is your advantage there. Probably 15 seats, something like that. The Senate is uncertainty.
But even if the Democrats don't take the Senate , but take one chamber, you will essentially divide the government. And Amon outlined the situation quite clearly. There won't be a majority to do anything. You will have investigations. Senate appointments will likely stall. And nothing will happen for 2 years.
You will say that a dead end is good. No, I won't say that. No, you won't say, but people in the market will say that a deadlock is good. I mean, that's how the market has traditionally thought about it. Well, unless something needs to be done. But in this case, I'm listening, what is the government doing these days?
Nothing special. Uh, and regarding the comment about volatility, I would just disagree. I don't know why this environment creates a particularly volatile investment environment. If you're focused on companies, cash flow, blah blah blah, divided government or unified government, I just don't think it's going to have much of an impact over the next 2 years.
Well, it comes down to the fact that a deadlock is a good thing. I mean sharpness. Density brings sharpness, and then perhaps that leads to a less volatile market. Let's take Elliott's warning, if you want to call it that. Do you agree with any part of what they say? Listen, I think anytime you have a lot of leverage in the market for a single deal, there is risk.
But, you know, I think it's more of a local pause right now, and there are a lot of possibilities. I would actually take a different position, saying that you can get high-quality papers for 8%. I mean, these are some of the most important companies in the world. Um, and I just see that there are a lot of concerns.
Things were evaluated, re-evaluated. Some of the technology stack looks really attractive to us. So, I would say, compared to how a few years ago you were buying 100-year bonds for zero, now you're actually getting paid for complexity , risk, and even quality. There are many things on the market that are very, very exciting .
Your arguments, the profits are still great. The shares became significantly cheaper. And what was happening with questions about artificial intelligence just manifested itself in the rotation. One, two, and three in turn. Yes, all positive, you make an argument. Yes, I do. And even we would argue that you could see a local peak in bond yields.
Add all this together with 4% of the nominal pound sterling next year. This is, you know, really good moon music for stocks. Do you agree with this? So, listen, I think the market is trying to figure out right now that semiconductors are trading at 16 and a half times future earnings. This is a multiplier that suggests we are close to peak earnings, but if you look at earnings estimates, it is expected to double over the next 3 years.
So, there are parts of the market that look cheap because the price potentially implies a slowdown in profits. The question is whether we will see any confirmation that profits are actually slowing, based on what hyperscalers are saying about their costs and the flow to the bottom line of semi-industrial operations.
Well, I mean, AMD is reporting tonight . You know, you get a good review and then a comment from Lisa Sue. And it will be online tomorrow morning. By the way, are you saying that semi-industrial operations have peaked? Because this is a broader conversation, and a more negative one. One could easily argue for a general AI trade, right?
I think we need to open our minds to the idea that June could have been a peak for semiconductors. This doesn't mean you can't own these names, it means you may have to own them for more tactical reasons. You may see a 25-30% increase to return to the downtrend line . But the reality is that these graphs are starting to look more and more like we're seeing a peak.
Mostly things like Cosby, for example. So the question arises: if the market looks so confident that earnings will continue to rise, but you are trading them as if they have already peaked , then there is a huge divergence that will need to be addressed.
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