저자: Kevin · 외국인
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이번 주 FOMC 의사록·CPI·PPI·은행 실적 등 주요 지표를 점검하며, 9월 고용 수치가 계절조정 왜곡(가계조사 정부고용 78.5만 추가)으로 과대평가됐다고 주장. 9월 항만파업 우려로 수요 선반영(pull forward)이 있었고, 이것이 10월 고용 급감으로 이어질 것이라 봄. 허리케인 영향도 언급. 본인 강의 쿠폰 마감 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here coming to you on autopilot to talk about what this week has in store for us regarding the Federal Reserve inflation and other considerations let's get right into it the first and most important thing that I'm going to be paying attention to this week is of course the Federal Open Market Committee set of minutes those will come out on Wednesday morning so mark your calendars for Wednesday morning we'll be able to find out what that discussion was around going 50 for the fed and are we going to get any hints or suggestions as to maybe getting a repeated 50 or are we just going to get that continued data dependence which remember those headline job numbers that we just got seemed really really good but yesterday we did a 27 and A2 minute video breaking down why those job numbers were entirely baloney it's not until you actually get like a 100 page and Pages down into the jobs report and all the way down into table alpha 8 they end up realizing that yes while the establishment survey removed the seasonal uh Spike of teachers going to work the household survey did not or even if it did it still somehow showed a seasonally adjusted positive 785,000 jobs which is crazy for September and it's also historically unprecedented to see an adjustment that high which suggests that the dat is likely to get suggested substantially down potentially a lot more than we've ever seen before now we know that JP and the Federal Reserve board are probably already expecting some of the job numbers to get revised down and the reality is even if the job numbers are revised down by 50% they're still good you'd still have 120,000 or 125,000 jobs from the you know 154 or whatever that we got which is incredible but the real question is what happens if you remove that crazy $785,000 job gain for government employees on the household survey with the seasonal adjustment already adjusting for teachers well what you end up getting is a 42% unemployment rate not a 4% employment rate which is much closer the to recession then frankly uh this unemployment report lets on so we'll see uh I think I don't know that this fomc minutes set will really tell us anything other than hey we're expecting to be dad independent but I'd like to see some commentary on revisions and I'd like to see a little bit more commentary on their their confidence that inflation is indeed going to come down even though we did see a little bit of a pull forward in September now I want to talk about September because this is an interesting one but quick note yesterday we had a mastermind and one of the folks in The Mastermind is like yeah you know I'm a wholesaler this this is a great group of entrepreneurs by the way meet Kevin o/ Mastermind we meet you know what's a quarter uh great group of entrepreneurs and one of them is is a wholesaler and they mention you know I got calls almost daily saying hey the port strike's coming up at the beginning of October make sure you order enough inventory in September so that you don't run out and have bare shelves and it does make me think that there was a substantial pull forward of demand into September because of those Port strikes which likely contributed to the skewing of this data now obviously we're going to get hit because of the hurricane adjustments we see in October hurricane hela's a disaster it's killed over 226 people is terrible now Tampa and Ford Meers that area is going to get hit again by another major hurricane this is just absolutely crazy it's a horrible time in the environment uh and for whatever it's worth I I should just briefly quickly mention so my team doesn't get mad at me that yes we do have a coupon expiring tonight uh we are going to do the largest price increase ever after this coupon expiration so if you want to be in get lifetime access to all all of the course member live streams lectures the archive the fundamental analysis the trade moves portfolio change you name it check it out be the first to know over at meetkevin.com a lot of people buying that stocks and psychology of money group and a lot of people bundling it with real estate or the gold productivity course check that out uh okay so I'll link down below but after we get this fomc data set on Wednesday we're also going to get the CPI report now CPI comes out Thursday morning at 5:30 a.m.
as usual I'll be live on the meet Kevin Market stream we're expecting CPI to come in at .1% on the survey prior report is 02 this will be great might take some of pressure off those bond yields those bond yields going up 25 to 35 basis points after the FED cut 50 is insane core CPI is expected to come in at 0 2 that's average down from about a two uh 24ish estimate prior being3 CPI year-over-year expect to come in at 2.3 versus prior of 25 and CPI year-over-year core expected to come in at 3.2 versus 3.2 on the prior so overall that's going to be the data set this week we do uh we will obviously get real hour hourly uh wages which is because you take the CPI report and then compare it to Wages that's not a big deal we'll get initial jobless claims as well uh and then on Friday October 11th we're going to start Bank earnings big deal to get some insights into that Q4 forecast how are the consumers doing more delinquencies are we getting credit card defaults or we getting more pain on the consumer or not did we see a weird spike in September because of some pull forward and then all of a sudden a crash in October is going to be some of our early warning signs if there are any warning signs and we'll also get PPI ppi is expected to be mild as well the producer price index report uh that'll come in at or expected to come in at a 0.1 survey prior 0 2 on the month over month month over month core looking for 0.
2 versus the3 prior much like the previous report except the year-over-year is expected to come in at 1.6 versus prior 1.7 year-over-year core 2.7 versus 2.4 prior and I mean look the manufacturing industry is in substantial decline Friday we'll also get um University of Michigan sentiment but manufacturing industry is basically facing just straight up deflation so I wouldn't really anticipate uh you know a big painful PPI read you know maybe you could end up seeing a Miss to the upside on CPI solely because of that pull forward that we saw into September but honestly I think that pull forward into September is going to lead to a crash of jobs in October we won't get that jobs report obviously until um November but we might see some spikes in some of the initial unemployment claims so have to pay attention to that and then on top of that you've got to consider that that seasonal adjustment is absolutely insane see remember for a moment normally when you have a bunch of teachers going back to work you have a non-seasonally adjusted number Spike and then they Revis that down with a seasonal adjustment that would be expected and they did that in the establishment survey they're like oh we have like half a million teachers and then they adjust that down to 31,000 cool but in the household survey which actually calls workers somehow we seasonally adjusted added 785,000 government workers uh and that's compared to the non-seasonal adjustment of almost 1.4 million workers where where did all these freaking government workers come from uh you know again this is where a lot of people think maybe there's election bias or whatever but I do think this week we'll get a lot of insight on CPI an early read on earnings a lot more earnings obviously next week uh and obviously the FED minutes I'll be covering all of these I'll definitely be covering these minutes as they come out really big deal uh and I really look forward to covering those I actually have an appointment that I have to get to at 12 so I'll cover those for about 30 minutes on Wednesday since they come out at 11: and then I'll dip uh and and look whatever happens I'll be there with you I'll be there for you I'll do my best to Pro provide the information uh as factually as possible uh if you like my information check out that expiring coupon code we will increase prices the largest we've ever increased prices before we've got some great things planned for course members we're very excited about that so if you want to lock in that price before that jump make sure to do so link down below before 11:59 p.m.
tonight if you have any questions email us at staff meetkevin.com I appreciate all of you thank you so much for being here thank you autopilot for driving all I've been watching the road the whole time anyway that was why it hasn't been beeping you know now elon's got this whole autopilot thing where if you're not watching the road it will beep uh which is actually great I I kind of like it I don't have to Wobble the wheel anymore I always thought that was kind of unsafe but uh and Highway it's always been pretty good anyway and I leave like extra I always set it for extra distance too but anyway that's just me thank you so very much for being here here again and folks we'll see you in the next one oh mind you Thursday we'll also get the robo taxi event there woo stay tuned for my Tesla video that's going to be a big one talk to you soon bye everyone Max you want say bye bye
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