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팔란티어 3분기 실적은 매출 3.92억 달러(전년比 35.5%↑), 매출원가 0.86억, 영업비용 3.97억으로 영업손실 약 0.91억 달러. 4분기 매출 가이던스 4.18억 달러로 컨센서스(4.01억) 상회, 연간 매출 약 15억 달러 전망. 주식보상비용(SBC)이 크게 줄었으나 여전히 높아 조정 FCF 수치 해석에 주의 필요. 기술적으로 27달러 저항 돌파 여부를 주시, 28~30달러 돌파 시 상승 가능하나 거래량 약화로 되돌림 가능성 언급. 시가총액 520억 달러 대비 과평가 지적.
다듬은 글
what is going on investors hopefully guys are doing well out there it is time to talk about palantir technologies ticker symbol pl tr the company just came out with their q3 earnings we'll talk about that they also gave us guidance for q4 and updated the full year 2021 revenues and profits that this company is expected to make we'll jump into the financials as well we got to talk about the income from operations or in this case the loss that palantir is generating we got to talk about stock based compensation because quite frankly that has kept a lid on this stock take a look at this stock chart over at palantir this stock has gone sideways for a year despite all the hype here on youtube i mean you can just bring up your favorite youtube channel i mean they're constantly pumping this stock and it's literally been range bound between 21 and 27 per share needs you bring up a chart of google or nvidia or amd or even like a facebook and boy you would had a lot more money in your account well now from a technical perspective we could be on the verge of a breakout with palantir and this is looking to me like it wants to go higher so we'll talk about that from a technical perspective as well when we jump into this one now we got to keep in mind too with palantir this one's got a 52 billion yeah 52 billion dollar valuation and you don't need yahoo finance to tell you this stock is mega mega overvalued so they've got to keep delivering and i tell you what in the q3 i think this company did i don't necessarily think anybody's buying this company for profits at least today or even next year but we've got to have strong revenue growth and we absolutely did that in the most recent quarter you had 35.5 year-over-year revenue growth it went up to this 392 million dollars when we get over the financials i'll show you this 392.
how compared to last year we'll run through all the numbers we'll see how we're doing from an operating perspective here in a second now what i want to talk about too is this company gave us guidance for the upcoming quarter that is q4 palantir is expecting about 418 million dollars worth of revenue that's actually well above the 401 million that was consensus before company updated their guidance now they are expecting revenue growth this year to come in at 40 prior the revenue growth was a little over 30 they're expected to do about 1.5 billion dollars versus the 1.51 that investors were expecting but keep in mind 1.5 billion dollars worth of revenue for the whole year and again you got a 52 billion dollar market cap that's why this company has to keep delivering on top of that you got people just hyping this stock up like it's the next tesla stock and they are way way way far away from that from a revenue and certainly an operating profit perspective now speaking of the operating profits or in this case his losses we'll take a look at him here the last three months ended we got our most recent quarter here on the left-hand side so we have our revenue came in at this 392.
this is our mid-30s percent growth over last year we're sitting about 289 million now what the street loves and what i love about this company as well is mega i mean we're talking mega high margins take a look at this cost of revenue you only had to spend 86 million dollars to make this 3.92 that gave us gross profit off of 392 million bucks you got gross profit coming in at 305 million dollars take a look at this okay last year we spent 149 to make 289 so your cost of revenues went down and your revenues actually went up by 35 yeah that is what the street absolutely loves and i tell you what you print a couple more quarters like this and then yeah we'll start moving up this stock chart really quick because that is absolutely fantastic margins now what i also noticed in the most recent quarter is they really dialed back the stock based compensation we'll talk about that more here in a second so we've got selling sales and marketing that ticked down mainly again we'll talk about here in a second stock based compensation research and development went down big time general administrative got cut in half as well so our total operating expenses last year were like like three times revenue okay our revenue last year on a quarterly basis was 289 but our total operating expense i mean you have to laugh when you say this was 987 million dollars okay a lot of that was stock-based compensation i'll show you that here in a second they break that out for you on palantir now this quarter much more normalized okay total operating expenses coming at 397 million i want to remind you though that is still in excess of our revenue okay not just our cost of revenue just our top top line revenue came in at 392 our total operating expense is coming at 397 so you take this 397 and this 86 million dollars worth of cost and you minus off our revenue you're still at a loss from operations but i tell you what this company has turned it around and it's turned around quick and the bull case is starting to play out to a certain degree because this company's business is starting to scale you notice last year we lost oh my goodness 847 million dollars in the quarter in the most recent quarter you lost about 91 million dollars that looks like the run rate we're basically on you see here in the right hand column is for nine months that's basically three quarters this is a quarter over here on the left hand column so you times this number by three and you're getting very close to this 352.
so right now the company's on about a hundred million dollar per quarter burn rate that is obviously way improved i mean we're nearly at a billion dollar run rate in terms of cash burn now the other thing that we're burning up is just the dilution take a look at this you had about 900 000 shares now you got 1.9 i mean you literally have a million more shares you wonder what these employees do with their stock okay they're being rewarded probably with a very meager salary but also a lot of palantir stock that is why you have a lid on the stock okay a research and developer over at palantir he wants to buy a new rolex he wants to buy a new apartment he wants to go on vacation he wants a new tesla so he's got to sell his shares and that's what's kept a lid on this stock for literally a year and you've lost out and a lot of gains considering the market has just been rip roaring to the upside especially mega cap tech and chip makers so you've missed out a little bit but this company does appear it's turning the corner from a stock based compensation expense perspective what i showed you up here we read these like it was dollars and for the most part that's how i like to analyze a company because i tell you what the research and developer over at palantir whether you're paying him in palantir shares or cash he's going to expect a certain amount of compensation because he could then just go work for the next company or the next uh you know startup or whatever it is so you got to pay these people okay and at some point you they run out of interest in the shares of the company and you have to start paying them cash so i tend to read these numbers in cash but if you don't want to you can come down here to stock based compensation and you can see out of our costs last year so i talked about how we had total operating expenses last year at 987 million 846 million dollars were actually stock-based compensation it wasn't cash it was literally palantir stock so you wonder again why this stock just has not been able to go anywhere for the last year well they gave away nearly a billion dollars worth of the stock to employees and guess what those employees did did they sell all of their shares no but of course they sold some of course to finance their lifestyle their their families anything like that and nobody here at the investor channel is blaming any of these people for selling their shares and living their life they totally deserve that now but you have to keep in mind from an investor you're buying these shares that they're literally giving away like candy on a halloween night over at palantir okay you're buying these shares so you have to keep this in mind as an investor okay now in the most recent quarter we're starting to see this normalize a bit okay we had 184 million dollars worth of stock-based compensation we see our our total operating expenses came in at 397 okay and this also will include this 86 million dollars up here because you see in cost of revenue some of that is share based compensation as well so we have to factor in all our cost of revenues which is well over 470 million dollars over at valentier about 184 million of it was actually stock based compensation so it's good in one sense that it looks like the dilution is starting to lighten up a little bit but it's also a little bit negative because this company is now going to have to come out of their pocket for these costs okay we i talked about how we had over 470 million dollars worth of cost well now we're having to fork that over in terms of cash over and above any revenue that we generate on that top line again 91 million dollars on this loss from operation side certainly something that palantir can handle from a balance sheet perspective which we'll take a look at here this is palantir's balance sheet got plenty of cash up top okay this is going back from last year on the right hand column up until the most recent quarter you basically got a nine month view here plenty of cash okay 2.3 billion dollars you got a little bit of restricted cash you got accounts receivable over here you got marketable securities i mean you got plenty of cash over here this company can survive for a very very long time even when they're losing 100 million dollars a quarter it's not necessarily that big of a deal because again part of that money is still stock-based compensation we do have some liabilities but nothing really here as you'd expect maybe a company that's just more recently gone public this company's only got 976 million dollars worth of liabilities very very well positioned in terms of that now cash flows the company when they do their press releases over at palantir notice that they're going to put at the top of our press release we raised our adjusted free cash flow outlook so what they're going to do is they're going to show you these cash flows and they're going to adjust for the fact that they paid out 611 million dollars over the last nine months in terms of stock-based compensation last year we talked about how we were over a billion yeah over a billion dollars worth of stock-based compensation over at palantir so yes when you pull down this net income number this year for nine months we were sitting at that 364.
i showed you that on the statement of operations so we come down here for the last nine months so this is our nine month column here this is our most recent year you come down you pay taxes if you have to you pay interest on your debt and you come down here to a net income number of negative 364 million last year you were negative a billion dollars okay now what they allow you to do on cash flows is add back in stock based compensation like it's free okay because from a cash perspective it is free for palantir to just it's like almost like the federal reserve printing money well palantir can just issue shares of pollen to your stock no big deal right okay yeah it is a big deal if you're a shareholder in this company okay if you're common joe shareholder who has to tr you're trading your dollars to get pal into your stock the employees of the executives are trading their time those are two completely different things okay so you need to keep that in mind when you invest in a stock like this also when you look at other youtubers and certainly the company themselves they're gonna tout these adjusted numbers i'm not saying that you can't adjust the numbers i just want you to understand what you're looking at they're adding back in the stock based compensation expense so you take this 364 net income guess what you get to add back in 611 million dollars like the employees work for free does that make any sense no it doesn't that's why i don't typically look at adjusted numbers when we're talking about this much of stock-based compensation now next year two years from now when this stock-based compensation will likely normalize a bit it'll get down to a lower level can you start analyzing cash flows at palantir sure i think you absolutely can okay that gives us positive net cash provided by operating activities at 240 million dollars so if we can somehow normalize this stock based compensation continue to grow our net income well this company is printing a fair amount of money for the last nine months on a free cash flow basis but i want to remind you okay we're still at a 52 billion dollar valuation and uh of out of all the hype i know there's a ton of hype around this dock that is still wildly overvalued from just about any metric even when you look at like a tesla or even some of these high-flying stocks like nvidia over the last few weeks incredibly overvalued from palantir now everything else looking exactly how you'd expect this company they don't got a lot of stuff going on here they are exercising some stock options so they're still diluting you from that sense over at palantir all things being considered i like the direction this company is going in i'm curious to see upcoming quarters how this stock based compensation expense starts to normalize and then they have to start paying their employees maybe a higher salary in order to to retain them we'll see what happens going forward with palantir they certainly have a book of business lined up as well that is looking good now i tell you what's looking good is this stock charts not looking bad at all okay we are making a low back here in the late spring time in the early summer time you made another low and then more recently in the fall time you made another low this stock is walking its way back up to this 27 level which we've had marked out for basically a year here on the channel as we analyze palantir we would expect this stock to do one of two things when it gets to this 27 level now the most obvious thing that will happen is the stock's going to get rejected and it's going to come down lower probably potentially down here to 23 per share and even lower down here to 21 dollars per share now i like this stock down here below 22 dollars per share because as you've seen that has acted as a level of support for the stock now it did break through briefly back here i think that's may or so down 17 18 per share but it rallied pretty hard off that level in fact all the way back up to our point of resistance up here about 27 you could even call it 28 per share on this one now what we're looking for with palantir on the upside is you need to start printing some candles up and above i really think you need to get up above 28 per share because we've got some price action up above here i'd really technically i think the consolidation pattern is down here at about 27 and i'm rounding these numbers off you can add another you know 50 cents to this but i would say personally for me to say hey that area consolidation is over i actually think you need to get up here probably closer to 30 dollars per share maybe even 31 per share that would confirm to me that the sellers have dried up between the 27 and 29 per share range and we could go back and retest this area up here okay because remember there is massive volume up back up in these areas actually a lot more than what we've seen over the last few weeks over at palantir we're actually seeing a really weakening of volume on this rally that's why i'm a little convinced that this stock will likely get rejected at the areas we're at and probably pull back because we're not seeing a lot of volume on this most recent run-up but let's just say i'm wrong we gotta put a couple candles above the 28 29 30 level on this one well we could then retest these levels and yeah sky's the limit you can pull up a chart of nvidia when you break to all-time highs look at the parabolic move you can make on these types of things even like a coin base okay you break above some area of consolidation and the stock can head higher same thing with pallentier okay we got to get above this 29 30 level then we can start retesting these levels i would guess probably the mid 30s even maybe as high as 40 dollars per share is where you could potentially run if you got some momentum behind the stock but also keep in mind there is a boatload i mean we're talking about a boatload of employees and executives over at this company that are sitting on boatloads of shares and i guarantee you every morning they wake up and they look at what the palantir price is doing because this is what their net worth is tied to quite frankly okay it's what all their they're donating all their time for palantir stocks so the minute this stock goes on a rally yeah you bet you these people are going to be counting what kind of boat what kind of rolex they can buy what new apartment they can move into what kind of real estate they can buy that's exactly the thought process these people are going to be doing and we're over a tune of one million more shares than we were last year okay so that will in my opinion keep a lid on the stock as well from a technical perspective shorter term we are in an uptrend i am going to be monitoring this one very closely to see if we can get above these levels depending on where you want to draw this line on we're either really close or we're actually i think from actually breaking out above the consolidation range i still think we're three or four more dollars away which doesn't sound like a lot but on a 26 stock that's still like 12 13 higher than we where we need to be okay and we will likely run into sellers as we reach these zones because quite frankly that's what's happened over the last year over at palantir that was palantir traditional valuation tremendously overvalued from a stock based compensation expense perspective very much a worrisome thing if you're common joe shareholder but from an operating perspective an operating margin perspective a gross margin perspective i love this company i don't necessarily think you need to be super early on this one tie up your money for a year in a stock that's gonna almost guaranteed sideways consolidate i'd much rather be in an nvidia maybe even a coin base i'd love to be much more invested in stocks like facebook and then when palantir really turns the corner that's when i think you can invest in this one you don't necessarily have to be early on these ones these over hyped these overvalued stocks you can wait until they kind of grow into their valuation i think tesla is probably the perfect example you could be up a thousand percent on your tesla shares just in the last few years alone you didn't have to buy it in the early days so that was palantir hopefully you guys enjoyed this video back again soon with more good luck with your investments
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