저자: Kevin · 외국인
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결론: 테슬라 주가 단기 조정은 일시적 현상이며 장기 상승 방향은 유효하다는 낙관적 견해. 발단: 일론 머스크가 트위터 투표 결과에 따라 보유 테슬라 주식 10%를 매도하겠다고 밝혔고, 세금 납부 목적이라는 설명이 나오며 주가가 하락함. 마이클 버리는 개인 부채 상환용 매도 가능성을 언급했다가 트윗을 삭제한 것으로 보도됨. 테슬라 주가는 하루 약 10% 하락, 최근 이틀 간 2021년 3월 이후 최악의 실적. 세금 규모: CNBC 보도로 머스크의 세금 부담이 약 150억 달러로 거론됨. 진행자는 머스크가 현금 급여나 보너스가 없어 주식 매도가 불가피하다는 점을 설명. 단기 하락 요인 1: 매도 물량 증가로 인한 수급 불균형. 다만 장기적으로는 큰 의미가 없다고 평가. 단기 하락 요인 2: 차익 실현 매물. 평균 매입단가가 훨씬 낮아 수익 실현 욕구가 크다고 분석. 공급망 문제: 머스크는 수요 문제가 아닌 공급 문제라고 주장. 테슬라는 생산능력 확대를 위해 기가팩토리 추가 건설을 계획 중이며 이는 시급한 과제라고 언급. 중국 판매 데이터: 10월 중국 생산 차량 판매는 전월 대비 3% 감소했으나 전년 대비로는 크게 증가(9월 5만 6천 대, 전년 대비 큰 폭 증가). 10월 수출 4만 대(9월 약 3천 대), 내수 1만 3,700대로 전월 대비 74% 감소. 진행자는 한 달 수치만으로 판단하기는 이르지만 추세가 이어지면 주목해야 한다고 언급. 상하이 2공장 건설 계획이 중국 실적 개선에 도움이 될 것이라 봄. 기술적 관점: 테슬라 주가는 대세 상승 중 조정을 거치는 순환 패턴을 보이며, 이번 조정이 한두 달 이상 횡보나 추가 조정으로 이어질 수 있다고 진행자가 전망. 조정 폭은 상승분의 30~40% 되돌림이 일반적이라고 설명. 조정이 며칠에 그칠 수도 있다고 언급. 결론: 진행자는 테슬라가 여전히 올바른 방향으로 가고 있다고 판단하며 이번 하락을 과도하게 해석하지 않는다는 입장. 출연자 전망: 진행자 개인적으로 테슬라 장기 상승 전망 유지, 단기 조정은 일시적이라고 봄.
다듬은 글
tesla stock is down almost 10 percent on the day we're gonna be breaking it all down in today's video what's good all my stock market and crypto freaks it's your boy kevin welcome back to the channel tesla stock has been on a momentous run over the last several weeks running up from the 600 range breaking over a thousand dollars hitting highs of over twelve hundred dollars per share and then something strange happened elon oh boy elon musk came out and said that he was gonna sell some of his tesla stock he was gonna unload some of his own personal tesla stock and buy some bitcoin and that seems strange but old boy elon is a strange dude right you can't be that smart and come up with such brilliant ideas without being a little bit strange so we all kind of shrugged it off uh this is just elon being elon but then another strange dude another really smart strange dude michael bury from the big short calls out old boy elon and says wait wait wait elon you're not selling tesla stock to buy bitcoin or do whatever you're selling tesla stock because you're in debt and you need to cover those debts so you're unloading your own personal tesla stock to pay a big giant tax bill tesla stocks now down 10 percent on the day so what does all this mean we're going to be breaking down what michael bury from the big short is saying what all this means for tesla stock going forward and just doing the in-depth analysis of tesla and where i personally think the company and the stock is headed so you're gonna want to stay tuned for this one if you're new around here we talk about the top stocks in the market every day we talk about the top cryptos every day so go ahead hit that subscribe button for me all right so tesla momentous momentous move if we look at the weekly chart it looks even sillier than the daily chart just late 2020 we're at what 43 dollars per share we had some reverse splits that type of thing but it was just insane right we have made the craziest move that i probably have ever seen out of any stock so today we've had the reddest couple of days since late march selling off from those all-time highs up at the 1243 area all the way down towards a thousand dollars per share it looks like we're finding support here over the last few minutes if we look at an intraday chart but it's definitely been a rocky two days for tesla stock so this all began in typical elon fashion when he post a twitter poll much is made lately of unrealized gains being a means of tax avoidance so i propose selling ten percent of my tesla stock do you support this yes no and then he goes to say i will abide by the results of this poll whichever way it goes so his twitter followers voted that he should sell some of his tesla stock 10 percent of his tesla stock and he says that he will abide by the result of this poll and i do think it's funny that he has the power to move a stock a trillion dollar stock by billions of dollars just by throwing out a tweet which is pretty funny and scary at the same time he also goes on to say note i do not take a cash salary or bonus from anywhere i only have stock thus the only way for me to pay taxes personally is to sell stock now this is coming out after michael bury old michael bury from the big short he was made famous by betting on the housing market to crash before the 2008-2009 financial crisis and he was proven correct after getting a bunch of crap thrown his way it looked initially like he was gonna be wrong but he ended up making the hedge fund he was working for a ton of ton of money betting on credit swaps we're not gonna get into all that but he made a ton of money all right so michael bury tweeted out let's read the report and what happened so tesla fell nearly 12 on tuesday and its worst two-day performance since march after insider reported michael bury of the big short said in a tweet that elon musk may want to sell some of his shares to cover his personal debts that is what elon is pretty much saying the stock decline added to monday's 4.8 percent slide after majority of voters in a twitter poll set up by musk said he should sell 10 percent of his stake in the eevee company bury didn't immediately respond to a message from bloomberg news to confirm the reports on the tweet which currently doesn't appear on his twitter feed so he must have gone back and deleted that tweet still tesla is up 54 percent on the year even with the recent decline and the market cap has continued to hold above a trillion dollars so sure i do believe that elon coming out and having to sell some of his tesla stock he is a big holder right anytime you have somebody with that that much volume that is looking to sell it's going to impact the stocks price when you have just a ton of shares being flooded on the open market supply demand you have an imbalance it's going to cause the stock to sell off a little bit doesn't mean crap long term but sure we could have a short term little pullback a blip in the radar due to elon having to sell to cover his tax debt so cnbc is now reporting that he may have a 15 billion dollar tax bill coming and i dread tax time i absolutely dread it i hate doing my taxes the process of doing that your taxes absolutely blows a big one and mailing a check to the government blows an even bigger one so i can't even imagine having to write the federal government a 15 billion dollar check so i don't blame old boy elon for trying to get out ahead of it it sucks for him and it sucks that tesla shareholders are having to hold through this drop but in my opinion this is nothing that we need to be too concerned about i just think it's going to be a short-term blip in the radar and i do believe there's some other factors that are contributing to this most recent tesla sell-off number one being just profit taking right look at the stocks chart it's amazing and people are up here with an average cost that's way down here so it is common sense that there's probably some profit taking going on up there number two we have supply chain shortages we have all seen the build up and the news releases of the problems that are going on around the world with supply chain tesla is talking about adding more giga factories because they can't keep up with the demand when tesla got that big deal with hertz hertz rent-a-car they're working on a deal to work together elon came out and said no we don't have a demand problem we have a supply problem and i a hundred percent agree with that they're talking about adding all these new factories and it needs to happen asap if tesla is going to grow into the company that we think it can be they need to have supply up and going they need to have manufacturing ramped up and they need to get this supply shortage under control tesla also sold fewer chinese-made vehicles in october than in the prior month they are talking about adding another gigafactory in shanghai and apparently that needs to happen quick because their chinese-made vehicle sales are dropping month to month so they reported that their china made electric cars slipped three percent month over month but they're up big year over year up huge year over year in september the company sold 56 000 cars chinese made cars plus 26 and a half percent from the august number tesla exported 40 000 of the chinese-made vehicles in the month of october versus only 3 000 in september local deliveries were 13 700 cars down 74 from september so it's just one month we don't want to pay too much attention to one month's numbers but if it starts to be a trend it is something that we're going to want to keep our eyes on also they're talking about adding that second factory site in shanghai which could help to improve these chinese numbers the chinese numbers the chinese market is crucial for tesla to maintain this trillion dollar plus valuation tesla's had a monster run you can't go straight up you have to have those corrections in order for the market dynamic to work and you get a you get a run up you get a little bit of a pullback maybe retrace 40 percent of the move or so and then you break out make new highs you pull back retrace 30 40 of that breakout and then you break back out and make new highs that's the way the market works cyclical you can't go straight up you have to have pullbacks you have to have consolidation and that may be what we see for the next month month and a half two months three months if you look at the chart look at from july even before july june all the way to late august you have just consolidation we didn't do much in that area and we just chopped around that's consolidation it was taking a breather the stock was relaxing kind of just taking in all the data right the market takes in the data the numbers the earnings report numbers and then you get good numbers and you get a breakout right and once that breakout happens you get a pullback maybe another couple months of consolidation and then you get another breakout that's the way the market works there's going to be a lot of hype around this correction that we're seeing it may only last a couple days we'll have to see but i'm not reading too much into it as i still think tesla is headed in the right direction that's gonna wrap up the video guys i hope you got something of value from it if you did go ahead and hit that like button for me i will catch you in the next one until next time peace
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