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시장 결론: 단기 조정 가능성은 있으나 지금 방향 베팅보다 변동성 진정을 기다리는 관망이 낫다는 입장. 고용지표: 2021년 11월 비농업 고용이 21만 건으로 시장 예상(57.3만)을 크게 밑돌았고, 실업률은 4.2%로 하락. 운송·창고 업종이 증가를 주도했고 레저·접객업과 소매 고용은 부진. 실업수당 등 복지 제도가 저임금 노동 참여를 억제한다고 주장. 시장 전망: 고점 부근 밸류에이션에서는 오미크론 등 악재에 조정이 크게 나올 수 있다고 봄. 다만 모두가 하락을 예상하는 상황이라 역방향 베팅 가능성도 언급. 방향 트레이드보다는 변동성이 가라앉길 기다렸다가 판단하겠다는 입장. Cathie Wood(ARK): 숏셀러들의 '거품' 비판에 반박. 그녀는 오히려 대형 블루칩이 거품이라고 주장했고, 진행자도 동의. 기술주가 구형 블루칩을 끌어올렸다고 봄. 테슬라: Morningstar가 적정가 680달러로 과대평가를 지적한 데 대해 반박. 테슬라는 자동차 회사가 아니라 태양광, 에너지, 소형 차량 등으로 사업을 확장하는 플랫폼이라는 입장. 태양광을 장기 1조 달러 시장으로 보며 테슬라에 긍정적이고, 숏은 하지 않겠다고 함. 주가 조정 시 추가 매수 생각. 리오프닝/코로나 수혜주: 펠로톤, 도큐사인은 팬데믹 중 수치가 부풀려졌고 정상화되면 평균 회귀할 수 있으니 실적 지속성을 면밀히 검토해야 한다고 강조. 정책 리스크: 바이든의 법인세 인상안이 통과되면 기업이 감원 등으로 비용을 상쇄해 시장이 위축될 수 있다고 경계. 전반적으로 매크로 악재와 고평가에 대한 경계심이 강하지만, 단기 방향은 확신하지 않는 관망 톤.
다듬은 글
let me just repeat that today's report has the unemployment rate down to 4.8 percent a significant improvement from when i took office and the sign that our recovery is moving forward even in the face of a coveted pandemic in september we saw one of the largest increases in average wages paid to workers on them of working americans on record what's going on my fellow stock market and crypto freaks extra boy kevin welcome back to the stock market today the stock market took another elephant size dookie today as we woke up the market was gapping up pre-market everything was looking good once again we came off a pretty decent day yesterday just to have the bell ring in the market to jump off of a cliff head first just complete roll over giving back most of the move now we are back at those lows that we saw the other day so we're going to look at the over overall market and take a look at exactly what's going on also we have kathy wood of arkhanvest firing back shots fired at the short sellers who have been saying that her funds are in a big giant bubble so we're going to look at the popular arc invest funds and talk about whether they are indeed in a bubble or is this just a buying opportunity we also have morningstar one of the biggest analyst firms out there coming out and saying that tesla stock is overvalued by as much as 60 or 70 percent giving it a fair market value of just 680 dollars and to wrap things up we're going to talk about how the rules of the game have changed forever the rona roana the pandemic have changed the rules of the game talking about the stock market and it is changed forever and if we don't adapt to it and change the way we value companies and value stocks we're going to be left behind sitting there getting dust blown in our face all right so we're looking at the spies we got the spy chart pulled up on the screen and if we back off to a daily chart this move is fun finally we have some volatility back in the market it's just not every day you get a 0.2 percent move higher you wake up same thing every day just that grind higher it's much easier to make money in the stock market when there's volatility in all this volume and volatility that we have seen over the last couple of days is opportunity but if we look at this move started the day after thanksgiving with the sell-off and we have been chopping around volatile since then but yesterday we had a really nice day yesterday closing up near the highs we gap up this morning go to a five-minute chart everything's looking good and then boom the bell rings and we get one of these just a complete roll over no by pressure whatsoever and right now we are bouncing a little bit but it's going to take some serious buying coming into this to get back up there to towards those recent highs investors had their eyes on the jobs report that came out today and it was a giant giant miss with a gain of just 210 000 jobs we were expecting a good jobs report obviously if the market's trading up at these levels all-time highs you're driving down the highway at 200 miles per hour you can't make any mistakes right if you're going down the highway 50 miles per hour you can pull up pornhub on your phone and watch your favorite performer do their thing you know what i'm saying you have room for air you can text your girl text mama tell grandma to put some cookies in the oven and no big deal maybe it's illegal in your state to text and drive but you're probably not going to wreck if you're just going what 40 50 and you're taking it easy but if you're going 200 miles per hour down the highway there's no room for error right you hit the smallest speed bump you're flipping that car and you're totaling it that's what we're looking at right now with the market trading at this price point there is no room to hit a speed bump you hit a speed bump up here it's game over you're going to have a correction and we're seeing that right now with the omicron variant it probably isn't even as bad as the delta was right from all data that i'm seeing initially it may not be as severe from a symptom standpoint as the original couple of variants but we're trading so high that any bad news can result in a pretty significant negative sell-off also we see it with the jobs report it's not pro it's probably not the worst jobs report in the world but when you're trading at these levels there's no room for mistakes all right so the non-farm payroll increased by 210 000 jobs in november following a gain of 546 000 jobs the previous month so it was pretty much slashed in half the number was well below wall street expectations of 573 000 jobs despite the big miss the unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent a 0.4 percentage point decline so the unemployment rate is still slowly dropping but when we're not adding these jobs it is pretty scary stuff professional and business services and transportation led the gains while hiring and leisure and hospitality was sluggish in retail lost jobs despite the traditional holiday season hiring all right this is not a good sign folks this is not a good sign we have the supply and supply chain crap going on the shortages and all that and that's probably why you see transportation and warehouse leading the gains then you have leisure and hospitality who's going to go work in a restaurant making 15 an hour waiting tables when you have the opportunity to still collect unemployment you have the opportunity to still get money via these social safety nets nobody's going to do that it makes no sense to go work for less than you can make sitting at home and until these uh just social money welfare program programs are put into check we're not gonna see businesses able to hire like they should be able to do and it's gonna hurt the economy and it's gonna hurt the stock market also what's going on with the holiday season hiring christmas is a month away we should see these retail stores being able to hire and it's not the case so i think the market is just gonna crash and roll over within the next couple of weeks probably not and here's why number one everybody thinks the market's going to crash right now everybody thinks that the stock market is overvalued and when everybody is on one side of a trade i want to be on the other side of that trade most retail traders lose money and if everybody's trying to pick short-term direction i want to be on the other side of it now i do think the market is a little bit expensive up here but i'm not going to be jumping to step in front of this moving train from a directional standpoint what i'll be looking for is the market to chop around and this volatility to die down and then i'll consider a directional trade but i'm not gonna spend tons of money on some options contracts that are way overpriced because the volatility has picked up a little bit also i think the rules of the game have been changed forever and kathy wood is a prime example of this she has been getting a lot of negative media over the last couple of weeks with her funds people calling them bubble funds she does own a lot of speculative growth stocks but think about the innovation that we're seeing over the last couple of years right we're at an inflection point with innovation if two or three years ago you told me that a company like facebook a big multi-billion almost trillion dollar company right is changing their stock ticker changing their entire business model to adapt to innovation and get involved in the metaverse i would have told you were nuts that you need to get it checked into the psych ward you needed a gown with your ass hanging out the back because you were looney tunes but now we are seeing this innovation just absolutely take over and who knows what the true value of these companies are because the tech that they're spitting out is like nothing we've ever seen before so kathy wood fired back she said your your stocks may be in a bubble but mine aren't she goes on to say that she actually thinks the big blue chip benchmark stocks are more so in a bubble versus tech and i tend to agree i think tech has dragged these older old-school blue chip stocks up with it all right so how about tesla stock morningstar came out a couple weeks ago and said that tesla stock is overvalued by more than 50 and has a fair market value of 680 per share right now we're trading at about we'll call it a thousand dollars a share six hundred and eighty dollars is way the hell down here what morning star in these short sellers that have been so wrong with tesla what they get wrong is that sure there's no money in selling cars i absolutely agree with that and that's why i haven't gone out and bought rivian i haven't gone out and bought loosened motors and i'm staying away from the traditional auto manufacturers it's very hard to make money selling cars the margins are razor thin tesla is not a car manufacturer everybody has been screaming it from the mountaintops trying to tell these short sellers what the deal is but they never listen and they always get burned and i think morningstar is also going to get burned why is tesla not an auto manufacturer this is why solar solar is one of my favorite sectors i've said it a hundred times i'll say it a hundred more times think about the entire power grid not only in the us but around the world and then think about making it all self-contained individual residents having a self-contained power system just wiping these local municipality power grids off the map georgia power where i live in these local counties these rural counties have their own emcs think about just wiping those off the map and how much revenue that could bring a company like tesla and it will become cheaper to go via solar then go the traditional power grid route eventually it will be cheaper it will be more efficient and it will make sense for the average common consumer to put solar panels on the roof and i think tesla should just hand them out for free you want solar on your roof no problem here's the unit for free and then we charge you x amount per month a little bit cheaper than what it would cost to be on the power grid and then it makes sense for the common consumer and i think that's where we're headed it's gonna solar is gonna be a trillion dollar business just for the retail side of things then you incorporate businesses uh county stuff and it's just gonna be huge huge business we also had news today that tesla is coming out with an atv for kids tesla is starting to sell a 1900 cyber quad atv for kids and this just shows where they're headed they're gonna use the automotive side of things as the home base right and then they branch out you got solar they got this atv over here and then who else knows who the hell knows what else they're going to be coming out with we've seen mock-ups of bikes cell phones but when you invest in tesla you're not just investing in an automotive company you're investing in so much more than that and that's what short sellers have gotten wrong for years and years we've seen some of the biggest hedge funds go belly up because they shorted tesla and i definitely am not going to be shorting tesla stock anytime soon and will be watching for any dip any weakness to add into i want to touch base real quick go back to the bubble big bubble stocks and we're seeing it happen the recovery bubble think about companies like peloton during the beginning stages of the pandemic peloton sales and revenue surged because people were locked up at home we didn't know how this economy was going to evolve and their numbers went through the roof people wanted to exercise while they stayed at home as we open back up life gets back to normal peloton their numbers they drop back to where they were prior so same thing happened with docusign docusign is down huge on the day because during the lockdowns everybody's working at home docusign's numbers they look better they were artificially inflated as people go back to work at the office their numbers go back to normal so i think when we're investing we got to be very careful to look at these numbers and analyze them and where were they before the pandemic and where are they now is it going to continue going up are these numbers going to continue going up or as we get back to normal life are they going to revert to the mean that's something that i'm analyzing before investing in these recovery stocks we also had uncle joe come out today and tout his new corporate tax hike increase this is something that we need to be cognizant of and continue to watch if this gets through if this gets passed corporations they're gonna figure out a way to make up for the money that they're paying to uncle sam no pun intended they're gonna have to figure out a way to bridge that gap if they're having to pay a billion dollars in taxes that they weren't having to pay last year you think they're just going to throw up their hands and say okay we're going to roll with it we like to pay taxes no they're going to lay people off they're going to figure out a way to save that money and that could indeed contract the market as well so that's gonna be something that we need to keep our eyes on it's very important for the right direction of the market all right guys that's gonna wrap up this video i love every single one of you guys subscribe hit that like button i'll catch you in the next one until next time peace
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