Equity Markets Would Like To See Interest Rates Drop Gradually Not Abruptly: Ed Yardeni | CNBC TV18

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Ed Yardeni는 Fed가 금리 인하를 점진적으로 해야 하며 9월 25bp 인하 후 11·12월 추가 인하는 불필요하다고 주장. 경제가 예상보다 강해 금리 인하 서두를 필요 없다는 입장. 미국 증시는 Fed·인플레·실적에 집중하며 S&P500 단기 목표 5,800 제시, 연말에 멜트업 우려. 정치 이벤트(대선·의회 구성)는 결과 확정 전 반응하지 않겠다는 입장.

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01. Ed yini is president at yard research is with us to take some questions Ed good morning great to have you with us here uh thank you so Powell all about just confirming what you've been saying for a while Ed that rate Cuts rate cuts are coming and uh it's just is it I mean 2550 does it matter and and do you think uh the equity markets would like 25 better actually yeah I think so I I think the equity markets would like to see interest rates drop gradually not abruptly abruptly would suggest that the FED knows something that we don't know remember it was only at the beginning of August that when the uh stock markets took a dive on the unwinding of carry trades that there were some hysterics out there saying that uh the FED had to raise lower interest rates immediately by 75 basis points so I don't think the FED wants to signal that there's any trouble out there because there really isn't and 25 is enough in September and I think then they should I think should wait I don't think they should do another cut in November and another one in December I think they need more data to confirm what the status of the economy is and I think the economy is going to surprise everybody to the upside I think it's going to be stronger than expected and if that's the case then there's absolutely no rush to lower interest rates okay so so Ed hi I'll great to have you on so if you could expand on that uh we get that first cut in September and then I saying that we'll get we'll keep getting gradual rate Cuts with a strong economy so then what I'm hearing is that Goldie Locks will dance into the end of the year is that the market scenario we're looking at well I I think the markets are expecting uh three Cuts in the federal funds rate between now and year end I think there's a likelihood that we'll only get one of those cuts in September and that the economy economic news will look so good that the FED will conclude that uh you know maybe rushing interest rate Cuts isn't the best thing to do word on uh all the the political rhetoric that's now heating up uh and we know that you know there's this big talk about raising corporate taxes you know which which is the stated sort of policy objective uh by um Miss Harris we've not seen the market react too much to that so what should we be prepared for in terms of just the market reaction the equity reaction to what's happening in politics well honestly that's been my position I'm not going to react to it until I know exactly who wins not just who wins in the white house but what the makeup of is in in Congress uh clearly if we get a democratic sweep that's one set of policies that will be uh very likely suddenly we get a republican sweep it'll be the other way I think we're going to get what's called gridlock I think well whoever's in the white house isn't going to find it that easy to get things through Congress if that's the case and all of these polic suggestions may not even have a a chance of occurring hi Ed good morning and good to see you when Ed I recall earlier this year we were talking about the S&P 500 moving to around 5,400 I think that was the Target that you had that 4,800 5,400 we're currently at around 5,600 where do you see the US markets go by the end of this year and also I want youment on this on the geopolitical issue Ed uh you know it seems that the equity markets are just ignoring that your comment out that yes yeah the the equity markets are ignoring uh the domestic political situation they're ignoring the geopolitical uh situation they're just focusing really on the FED inflation the economy earnings and those are all uh uh positive right now I'm I'm thinking now that we could get to 5800 but by year end I I am actually concerned about a melt up U the problem with a melt up is it's hard to really put in any sort of Target because you don't know it's all kind of become psychological and I think I think Paul actually made a mistake I think he was too doish on on Friday he should have basically signaled at September that probably a rate cut and and then we'll see uh but um he seem to be really putting a lot of weight on concerns about the labor market and I I don't see that there's a lot of reasons to be concerned even he admitted that whatever increase we've seen in the unemployment rates has not been related to layoffs it's just been more people coming in to the labor market thinking that there's job opportunities out there and it's just taking them a little longer to find those jobs so I think he was too dobish but uh doesn't really matter what I think what's important is what he says and what he said was very devish no it matters what you say because markets listen to you and we do too thank you very much for joining us and running us through what you are uh what what you think uh the FED will do and your assessment of uh the entire situation has been uh sort of bang on over the last many months with this assessment through the sort of waxing in waning in terms of rate expectations up and down it's gone on and on uh but he's been on the ball