저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인 하락으로 보유 기업(GameStop, Strategy, Coinbase, Tesla 등)의 4분기 실적에 대규모 손상차손이 발생할 수 있다고 분석. 회계기준상 공정가치 하락분을 손실로 반영해야 하며, GameStop은 순이익 대부분이 증발, Strategy는 약 180억달러 손실 가능성 제시. 비트코인이 8만5천달러 아래에 머물면 기관 매도 압력과 지수 영향이 우려된다고 주장. 다만 비트코인의 변동성은 본래 구조적이며 해당 기업 주가는 매수 기회가 될 수도 있다고 언급.
다듬은 글
Well, folks, the real test is coming up for Bitcoin, and it has everything to do with the newbie suits who are now in Bitcoin, like this guy. We'll talk about this shyer in just a moment who's talking about potentially paperhanding Bitcoin at Van. We'll talk about that. But we have to understand there are going to be a lot of implications to actually public reporting companies.
And I have a list of them we're going to go through because if Bitcoin stays this low or worse falls even lower, we're going to have some really nasty earnings coming up. And so what I did is I went to bitcoin treasuries.net and I downloaded the current holdings in Bitcoin of every various company here like Tesla or GameStop or Strategy or Square now known as Block or whatever.
And I also I I put this all on a spreadsheet and the reason I did this first of all is because when we look at the IBS shares trust when you know got into their Bitcoin ETF we have not had a drop this severe ever in the history of Bitcoin ETFs. We're down 31%. Right? We did have a 17%ish 19-ish% decline over here in January to February of 2025.
So earlier this year, you know, as we were getting ready to get liberated, but this is the biggest drop yet that a lot of these public recording reporting companies and ETFs are going to have for Bitcoin. And so they're going to have to explain to their shareholders why all of a sudden their net income is getting smashed.
And knowing that along with doing a fundamental analysis, I I know this seems like it's out of left field on GameStop. Just a couple days ago, we were doing a fundamental analysis on GameStop and we're like, "Oh, cool. They had $169 million of net income. That's great. uh $28 million of that, by the way, of that net income was from Bitcoin gains, right?
So, we were looking at GameStop's fundamentally in the alpha report and we're like, "Hey, you know, Bitcoin actually helped GameStop earnings." I always like to parse that out. And I'm like, "Yeah, but even if I take that $28 million out, you know, Bitcoin, uh, you know, only helped a fraction for GameStop's net income.
Their net income was actually doing pretty well here. here. I mean, you're at over $130 million of net income on like collectibles and earnings are going up at GameStop. Like, this is cool. And they've got, you know, over $4 billion of free cash after they pay their bills. And not trying to shill it.
You know, I don't own any GameStop, but I'll tell you, I was looking at it fundamentally. I'm like, huh, what what could go wrong, right? Well, that combined with what I know is going on here with IBIT, the largest drop for a lot of these public entities that they've ever experienced holding Bitcoin.
I realized, oh my gosh, these companies are going to have to report Bitcoin losses as losses on their Q4 financial statements if they end up going, you know, if if Bitcoin doesn't recover. Now, all of this could be a non-issue if Bitcoin recovers. And so, I put the spreadsheet together to see what the kind of risks are, which we'll go through that in just a moment.
But I want you to see where the rules of this are. So this is a KPMG uh PDF. It basically explains how to account for crypto on your financial statements to be compliant with SEC rules and GAAP accounting requirements. So basically what they say is if the carrying amount of an intangible asset exceeds its fair value, the entity shall recognize an impairment loss in an amount equal to that excess.
Okay? So in English, if you bought Bitcoin for $100,000 and now it's worth $85,000, you're going to have to show a $15,000 loss. Okay? So we have to basically mark to market our Bitcoin. This is going to create a little bit of a problem for a lot of companies. . This is going to create a little bit of a problem for a lot of companies.
So, what I did is I made this spreadsheet and I put GameStop in here because that's what kind of got me thinking about all this. I put GameStop in here and I go, "Okay, cool. They had they had net income of $169 million. But wait, I have to take out the Bitcoin income that they previously had. So, if I take that out, they have $141 million of income outside of Bitcoin gains.
All right. Well, their loss since the last quarter ended, September 30th, is equal to about $28,000 per coin. Great. What does that work out to if they own 4700 Bitcoin? Well, it works out to $131 million, which means 94% of GameStop's net income for the fourth quarter, assuming income stays roughly stable, has been evaporated because of Bitcoin losses.
Now, hodlers know this. They're not going to care about this, but a lot of people might not understand why all of a sudden debt income at a lot of these companies is going to plummet. Look, I did Square as well. Square, they're going to see 53% of their net income evaporate. Tesla could see 23% of their net income decline uh and disappear just because of the Bitcoin impairment.
Now, of course, people are expected to add that back in, but again, are the suits smart enough to put two and two together? And this is where I get nervous that maybe they're not, and then they start papering. Why? Well, because of this little Vanette guy. You'll see in just a moment here. Coinbase, 94% of their net income is at stake.
For Bullish, which just went public and is absolutely getting reamed, they had net income of 18 million from like, you know, they're I mean, honestly, part of that is probably because of Bitcoin gains in the last quarter. So, they're basically losing money, but they're just from holding Bitcoin, $24,000 Bitcoin, they're about to lose $680 million, which is, you know, 3,688% of their net income.
Micro Strategy showed net income of 2.7 billion. Well, they're about to show a loss of $18 billion. Again, if Bitcoin stays under 85,000, it's at 84,000 right now. So, best case scenario, this just recovers, right? And this doesn't end up becoming a larger issue. But all of these companies, a lot of them, they're part of indices.
Like Tesla's a mag seven, right? So Tesla sells off, Coinbase, which is obviously part of our indices as well, you know, GameStop to some extent, whatever. Like all these companies, these are going to have a weight on our indices as well. Block. But anyway, let's listen uh to this guy and listen to him sort of panic about what I think is mostly nonsense.
And these are the kind of people that potentially are going to make allocation decisions and then start dumping Bitcoin because they got egg on their face because you had a volatile quarter. Like Bitcoin is almost designed to be volatile. I don't think they get that. So, welcome to volatility. But anyway, here we go.
There's something else going on within the Bitcoin community that kind of non crypto people need to know about and that is ultimately Van has been around before Bitcoin. We will walk away from Bitcoin if we think the thesis is fundamentally broken. We don't. First of all, nothing in this quarter has fundamentally changed the thesis of Bitcoin.
Okay. The point of Bitcoin is that there are no earnings and that it is a way to diversify into a limited supply digital asset with no borders. Okay? It's not really designed. Can it function as a payment system? Sure. But I see it more as a digital store value. Now, I don't own any Bitcoin because right now, and this is not to be anti- Bitcoin.
It's just to say I'm anti this financial engineering that's happening that I think is propping up artificially the value of Bitcoin. Like, I think a lot of these suits need to get flushed out. Frankly, I think Michael Sailor and his financial engineering props up the value of Bitcoin artificially. Like, I actually think the premise of Bitcoin, when you read the Bitcoin white paper, like this is brilliant.
But again, I don't own any because I think these very paperhanders who are in it for the wrong reasons need to get flushed out. Like I actually think it would be a wonderful thing to see these people get flushed out because the reason I think a lot of them got into Bitcoin is for the wrong reasons. And you'll see here in this interview this person, oh well, you know, people are worried that blockchain is public.
Bro, no flying SH9T. Where have you been? Do you not understand blockchain at all? Like yes, you can also tornado cash your Bitcoin or the other forms of tornado cash. That's more of the colloquial now known version of it until tornado cash kind of got replaced. But anyway, like you should know that there are ways to make your transactions private by washing them through other wallets.
This is old news, but the fact that this guy is saying, "Hey, you know, we've been around longer than Bitcoin, and if we just, you know, the fundamental thesis is gone, we'll just walk away from Bitcoin." To me, it says these people are in it for the wrong reason. You know why they're actually in it?
Because when it's going up, all their clients are calling going, "Hey, why don't you own more Bitcoin? I guess we got to get exposed to Bitcoin." And they go in, they basically go in because it's going up, driving it to go up more. And then when it starts going down and it has to show up on Gap Financials, they're like, "Oh my gosh, this sucks.
Well, maybe the thesis has changed. Well, uh, we'll just sell it." Yeah. Like this is the test that's coming up for Bitcoin is these morons have to get out right now. But you always have to look at the underlying technology and the crypto, sorry, the Bitcoin community has been asking itself about is there enough encryption in Bitcoin because quantum computing is coming.
Oh my gosh, quantum computing is decades away. Annealing quantum computing just because quantum computing stocks are going up ain't going to do anything for quantum, you know, for for crypto encryption. Frankly, I think that Bitcoin will just adapt to new encryption standards as we actually get closer in decades to, you know, quantum real quantum computing, not this annealing garbage.
Uh, but this has been a risk since before you bought, dummy. And so, and then secondly, is there enough privacy in Bitcoin? And so, a lot of Bitcoin OGs or maxis have been looking at Zcash. And Zcash, what's that? Zcash has is a token. It's sort of related to Bitcoin with a I can't even keep listening to this guy because he's just such a freaking But I think the point that you have to consider here and even Chris Whan is talking about it which I think he's he's right about this.
I thought about this while I was looking at GameStop fundamentals, but other suits are starting to talk about this as well. Just listen to this. year end is going to be very interesting because a lot of public companies that have put their toe in the water on these various crypto tokens are going to want to get out because otherwise they're going to have to report some big big losses.
They may have to report the losses anyway. Um it's not good when you have something move 30% in a month. Yeah. Right. It's basically in English like these suits that were previously bragging about how great Bitcoin is are now looking for dumbass reasons to sell it. That's what's happening here. Van like, oh well well I I you know I guess Zcash is more popular now and and I guess Bitcoin has encryption risk.
I'm like this has been argued for years. The only reason you don't know about that is because you bought it for the wrong reasons. You bought it because it was going up and now it's going down and now you're looking for all the old reasons to paper. This is why I don't own Bitcoin because I think these people pumped it up for the wrong damn reasons.
That's like it's it's been ponzied up. Okay, fundamentally to its core, these people need to be gone. All right, sorry for the emotion here, but let's be clear. If Bitcoin doesn't recover, Bitcoin's going to be in for a big test because these companies are going to have to report some big old losses.
Now, I realize Tesla has been around longer and and Tesla has had Bitcoin volatility longer, but now you're coming at the end of a catalyst cycle for Tesla with stock comp and otherwise. And at a time of significantly slowing sales, Bitcoin being down is going to suck for companies on this list. Now, in fairness, they could create a great buying opportunity.
So, I'm looking at this list for buying opportunities. Let me know what you think in the comments down bel.
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