The Fed JUST Bailed out Stocks.

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연준이 12월 금리인하 기대를 끌어올리며 증시 하락을 지지할 것이라 주장. 11월 CPI 발표 취소 등 데이터 공백과 블랙아웃 전 연준 발언 기대. 코어위브 부실이 엔비디아로 번지는 AI 버블 리스크 강조, 소비주 반등은 펀더멘털이 아닌 모멘텀이라고 평가. 로빈후드 고레버리지 경고로 반등 시 차익실현 권유. 장기적으로는 조정 가능성 있으나 침체가 확정은 아니라는 중립적 입장.

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※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Last few days have been nerve-wracking. And on our jobs release day, we actually got pretty decent jobs data. We mentioned that there was one thing that can help alleviate some of the pain. If you go back to my 5:30 a.m. live stream, you'll see that I mentioned the Federal Reserve has until next Friday to do something for us.

02. See, the Federal Reserve might not {quote} {unquote} care about stock prices, but the Federal Reserve does recognize that if the stock market falls in a weak economy, you can actually induce a recession through a stock market decline. It's exactly what happened in the dot-com bubble. We didn't have underlying economic issues.

03. We had a stock market that created underlying economic issues when the bubble burst. Now, Federal Reserve wants to make sure we don't go into a recession. That is really bad for unemployment. It's really hard to get those jobs to come back, especially in the day of AI or the days of AI. So, what did what happened this morning?

04. Well, after the market's been selling off and selling off and selling off, sure enough, this morning the Federal Reserve has unleashed to prevent a continuation of the dip. And just this morning, we get John Williams telling us that, "Hey, we should actually still be cutting in December." Now, it's not worth really listening to what they all say, but what matters for Williams is even though he's a dove, he's a voting member of the FOMC, and he's a mid-range dove.

05. So, he's kind of a centrist. He's like 51-49 on the dove tilt. He's not like mega dove like Myron who's going to tell you we should always be going for a 50 basis point cut, you know, because that's what Trump wants. Although, Myron has really shaped out to be a pretty good member of the Fed so far.

06. I think he's got very transparent ideas and and and good ideas. But, this was impressive. And just Williams's talk alone doubled the odds that we were going to get a rate cut in December, which is great because we just got rug pulled on the October CPI data. We will not be getting CPI or inflation data for October.

07. And we're not going to be getting a jobs or CPI report until after the next Fed meeting. That led to a lot of nervousness in markets that at a time where liquidity isn't that great, the Fed was potentially going to stay restrictive. And I think that was one of the large contributors to a lot of uncertainty with what's going on in markets.

08. And if the Fed doesn't cut, it actually strengthens the dollar. And if you strengthen the dollar, you potentially set up for more of that Japanese carry trade, either the fear of the carry trade or that sudden unwind. It's the shifts in policy that trigger the carry trade, not a consistent movement in one direction.

09. It's the sudden shift that you have to be careful of, which we talked a lot about yesterday. So, today we kind of got bailed out by the Federal Reserve. We're now sitting we went as high as a 70% chance of getting a cut December 10th. Right now, we sit at about a 63% chance of a cut. Now, we still have a sensitive market, market that's still a little shock prone, but we're seeing volatility come down.

10. Part of that is because yesterday a lot of people are pounding the pavement going, "Oh my gosh, Michael Burry is right." But, if you actually watched my video breakdown of what the catalyst for pain yesterday was, it had very little to do with Michael Burry being right or wrong. It doesn't really matter where Michael Burry sits because the Burry problem is a long time in the future issue.

11. It's not a now issue. Instead, what you really want to pay attention to, in my opinion, is the potential default of a company like CoreWeave. That is critical for this AI play. And right now, fortunately, we're getting some recovery on the Qs. We're coming back to 595. My expectation, my hope was that we would go bullish today, but I will say we had a lot of selling we had to get through at the a.m.

12. Uh AMD went down, Nvidia went down. The first, you know, 2 3 hours here, we were straight down on Nvidia and and AMD. Fortunately, it seems like some of that selling flush is now behind us. Volatility's coming down. And unless you're in Fat Brands, you should be seeing a recovery today. Now, we've been dumping on Fat Brands for the last couple days over two or three days here, mostly because I can't believe a company with $2 billion or $2 million of cash has over 1 and 1/2 billion dollars of debt.

13. But, that's really a topic for a different video. But, what you'll notice is there's a lot of buy the dipping going on here. You've got Target up 5% as they're offering a 5% dividend. People are buying the consumer dip. Chipotle, which has been tanking, is getting a bid up 4%. Red Robin, which is issuing $40 million of of stock because they're out of money, they can't pay their bills, they have horrible financials, they're up 5% today.

14. Dave & Buster's, which screwed up massively on CapEx spending, is worth less than half a billion dollars now, up 5%. Cheesecake Factory, Macy's, a lot of these consumer beaten-up stocks are rallying today. And I think a lot of it is because of the belief that the Federal Reserve is going to come prop the stock market up.

15. And frankly, you kind of want that. You want the Fed to pump the bags. Because if a company like CoreWeave goes bankrupt and it goes full circle, much like Circle stock did going full retrace here, full 100% retrace all the way back down to the zero line. If CoreWeave goes full circle and we go down to 33 or worse, CoreWeave goes bust, you have to understand the greater implications that it's going to have for Nvidia.

16. See, I wrote this note yesterday in the Meet Kevin app. Nvidia is basically a bank. And so, what I wrote is, "Let's ignore inventory for a moment. Let's just assume that the inventory issue is just part of their increasing sales at Nvidia." What's more interesting in Nvidia is actually its accounts receivable profile.

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22. What's more interesting in Nvidia is actually its accounts receivable profile. You're going to notice that accounts receivable on January 26th showed that 33% of their top customers had receivables outstanding, you know, contribute well, 33% of total receivables outstanding at Nvidia were from their top customers.

23. Concentration, right? That concentration has nearly doubled. You're now at 65% of your receivables are concentrated in your top four customers. Now, in my opinion, well, a top customer could be a company like Microsoft. I think Microsoft has plenty of cash to pay for their bills. But, a company that I don't think, two companies I do not think have plenty of cash to pay their bills, XAI and CoreWeave.

24. CoreWeave has tanked from all-time highs. It's de facto bailed out by Nvidia. And XAI is trying to raise $15 billion so they can pay their bills and actually buy their chips. Okay? Amazon and Google, they're built they're buying Nvidia chips, but they're also building their own chips. And they've got cash flow.

25. But, CoreWeave and XAI, I don't know this because it's not disclosed, but I wouldn't be surprised that CoreWeave and XAI are in this top four customer batch who hasn't paid their bills yet. That could be one of the reasons why we're seeing finished good inventory rise. It all comes down to this customer concentration of they don't have the money to pay for their bills yet.

26. And understand the cycle of how this works. This is how Nvidia is the bank. Nvidia is like the JPow of AI. Nvidia wants to sell CoreWeave chips. Okay? Simple, right? But, CoreWeave can't take delivery because nobody will lease to them. So, Nvidia ends up guaranteeing CoreWeave. CoreWeave then gets the lease because they have Nvidia's credit backing.

27. Nvidia gets to hold their inventory until CoreWeave can actually take it and raise the money. Hopefully, the stock pumps, and then they can pay Nvidia more. The more CoreWeave pumps, the more Nvidia can sell them stuff. Nvidia wins on a stock pump. They're also hedged with the $470 million they have in escrow.

28. But, remember, Nvidia is committing to $26 billion of leasing. They're basically forcing people to install Nvidia chips. So, if CoreWeave tanks more, it's really bad because then Nvidia loses a customer, they lose the debt, they lose the leasing tenant, and Nvidia gets a bunch of bad data center space that they really don't want.

29. So, stocks tanking can literally burst the bubble. So, you want the Fed to bail out stocks. Is it sustainable? Maybe not. But, you want the Fed to come in and go, "No, no, no, no, we'll keep we'll keep cutting rates." And I think that's what you're seeing today. Now, it wasn't as clear of a trade because clearly the market had to go down before it was able to go up today intraday.

30. I was really looking for green out of the gate on these Williams comments. I was bullish on the Williams comments because I'm like, "This is good. This means the Fed is using the last week they have before the blackout window to put a floor under this market crash. Stop the bleeding because the bleeding could actually impose the very recession the Fed is trying to avoid." Now, when you look at the fundamentals, because I'm I'm a big fan of looking at fundamentals.

31. You know this, okay? I don't have to tell I don't need CNBC to tell you what you already know. &. So, when we look at the sheets for CoreWeave, understand this. CoreWeave has $2.5 billion of cash. Do you know how much they have in debts? They have $8.6 billion in current debt. They need to pay $8.6 billion of bills.

32. They have about 4.2 total in liquid. So, they have at least $2 more than $2 of debt of bills to pay in the next 12 months than they have cash to pay. CoreWeave needs money. How does CoreWeave raise money? Right here. They issue debt and they they go IPO. They public they go public, right? So, they issue stocks and debts.

33. Look at their cash flow statement. This is a horrible horrible horrible horrible cash flow statement. If especially if this bubbles, this gets worse. Why? Cuz look at this. Net cash provided by operations, $1.5 billion. How much are they spending? $6.2 billion. They're basically borrowing money and blowing over $4.7 billion in CapEx, which is essentially everything they raised from their their net debt issuance cuz they refinanced some debt over here.

34. So, they took out a $7.5 billion loan, but they paid off a $3 billion loan. So, their net financing is $4.5 billion, right? Okay. So, they're borrowing to build. We know that. But, the only way you could keep sustaining the Ponzi, the circular financing, there's only one way you could keep the Ponzi going, especially, you know, I mean, they're they they do have ca- in fairness, they do have net income if you add back into depreciation.

35. You got to give them that. But, the only way you keep this going is by keeping the CoreWeave stock buoyant. Okay? It doesn't have to be 100. It doesn't have to be 200. It just can't go bankrupt because if CoreWeave goes bankrupt, that's what starts the Michael Bury cascade. The Michael Bury problem is not what yesterday's problem was.

36. I want you to pin this stupid stock to your whatever broker you use. If you use WeBull, great. If you don't use WeBull, you could sign up. Use my affiliate link. meetkevin.com/webull. I think they give away free stuff if you use my affiliate link. Anyway. Paid promotion. Paid promotion. But, understand this.

37. You need to have CoreWeave pinned because if CoreWeave keeps falling, guess what happens when a stock falls? It's a simple game, folks. When the stock goes down, fewer people want to buy it. That's human psychology. I'm telling you. You know what people want to buy right now? Apple at a four peg. You want to know why people want to buy Apple right now?

38. Cuz it's going up. It's simple. Human psychology is very simple. Stock go up, people want more of it. Stock go down, people don't want it. It's the opposite, not always, of what you want to do. Like, I don't want to buy CoreWeave just because it's going down. I'd rather buy the dip on something else.

39. Like, Netflix. Well, that's a cash machine and it's got a horrible technical trend right here. Like, this this technical trend right here is not good and we're losing 108, which is not great. You know, it could be $90 soon. But, this is a phenomenal cash generating machine that is a beneficiary of the advertising wave that's coming from LLM LLM's overspending on advertising, which will be the next phase after they overspend on chips.

40. That's to come. That's my thesis, okay? I'm not trying to distract from the point. The point is the Fed needs to keep CoreWeave buoyant. Because if CoreWeave goes bankrupt, Nvidia takes a giant L, the ability to finance all of the other data center plays goes to crap, then Nvidia's earnings plummet, and then you got yourself a recession driven by the stock market.

41. So, the Fed had to utilize their blackout window. They're not blackout window yet. Their blackout window starts on February 29th. Okay. In English, basically, about 2 weeks before the Fed meeting, the Fed is told, "Okay, boys and girls, we're about to have a meeting. Class is about to be in session.

42. So, now you have to be quiet until the teacher shows up." Okay, that's a blackout window. They're not allowed to say anything. They don't do their circuit or whatever. So, they only have between now and next Friday to pump the odds of a rate cut. Now, if you want to guarantee the odds of a rate cut, I almost promise this is what's going to happen.

43. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, right before Thanksgiving, you're going to get somebody else come out from the Fed. I don't know who's who who it's going to be. Somebody another voting member from the Fed is going to come out and they're going to go, "You know, because we don't have the data yet, we're probably better off doing one more cut and then we'll let the data guide us." That's all you need.

44. All you need. One more person from the Fed and you will guarantee the rate cut for December. The odds of a rate cut will go from 63 to 100%. They'll be like 98% or whatever. Then we'll get our rate cut December 10th and hopefully we could just be bullish between now and then. Then you get the data the week before Christmas.

45. That's the hope. Hopefully hopefully this Fed bailout is a way of providing liquidity again. Now, is it possible that it fails? Of course. You know, if this isn't enough, like if this becomes a continuation of profit taking because, you know, we're seeing that liquidity stress, whether it's in repo.

46. I know the chart's not as high as it was, but you have to zoom out and recognize we usually don't use this facility at all. So, the fact that it's being used at all is a sign of liquidity stress. Or the fact that you're getting issues in private credit, those issues don't go away. You have to look at the 48 pallets bankruptcy-ish.

47. I call it a bankruptcy, okay? Stupid paywall here. Uh 48 pallets basically went into bankruptcy in my opinion. So, what happened was 48 pallets last year took out $1.75 billion of a loan. You can get this all on the Meet Kevin app, by the way. 48 pallets took out a $1.75 billion loan. Then they started take making payments in kind, which is basically like, "Hey, just add it to what I owe you." Okay?

48. So, they stopped making payments in August entirely. So, they go payments in kind since I think like liberation. Then they stopped making payments entirely. And then what happens? They fail. And so, now you have KKR, BlackRock, and Carlyle who are like, "Oh, yeah, these are worth 86 cents on the dollar.

49. Now they're actually worth 46 cents on the dollar. Now they're actually worth zero." You basically have another private credit failure on your hands. Yet another one. Like, this keeps happening on like a daily basis you get these private credit failures. That liquidity issue doesn't go away because of the Fed being bullish.

50. So, I'm not saying that all of our issues are gone. I'm saying the Fed is trying to prop up the market. Now, people always look at, "But, Kevin, the Fed says they don't care about stocks." Of course they have to say that. But, if you study history, you'll understand that if the stock market tanks 30%, we are going into a recession.

51. The fundamentals of this economy are too damn weak. If CoreWeave goes bankrupt, it's going to take down Nvidia, and if Nvidia gets taken down, it's over. We'll be we'll be we won't make a dime on stocks for 10 years with buy and hold. It'll be 10 years before you make a buck again. It'll suck. So, of course the Fed is trying to prop this up.

52. Again, does it mean the liquidity issues are gone? No, of course not. Does it mean OpenAI is going to be success? Not necessarily. I mean, the information on the front page of the information, they've got a piece on Sam Altman basically saying that, "Hey, dude, we might Let me get out of incognito here.

53. We might be facing some economic headwinds here because Google is basically kicking our a-double-s." And to me, that's a sign that they're hitting I mean, somebody mentioned this in the comments and I think they're right, an innovative wall, but it's also a sign that, "Hey, if your competitor is doing better than you and you're going to have economic headwinds because of that, it means you have too much debt.

54. It means you're relying on the market financing you instead of your competitor and you're worried about not getting the financing you think you need to keep innovating cuz your innovation has stalled." It's not a good thing. Like, this doesn't save OpenAI. This doesn't save the private credit disasters that are going on.

55. It's just a way to engineer a bounce in the stock market. And I think you're seeing that in these consumer names. I think these consumer names are directly responding to Williams. You'll notice Target straight up since Williams talked this morning. Straight up. And I trust me, I am very tempted by Target.

56. Uh but you know, they're like they're very cheap. Their sales are are declining though. So, that's the problem. Walmart is destroying them. Uh and this is probably a Williams bounce here, not nothing fun There's nothing fundamental in these consumer stocks going up. The consumer is still getting reamed.

57. So, like Restoration Hardware, I know it's exciting that it's up 9% today. I recognize that. But if you do , first of all, that's your week chart. But if you actually do , you know the true pain for Restoration Hardware is not behind us. It's ahead of us. I'll give you a spoiler alert as to how bad this is, okay?

58. So, spoiler alert. I'm going to go to the stocks tab in the uh course member tab. This is This is our IP, man. I shouldn't give this away. Okay, hold on. Where was it? Okay. [clears throat] All right. So, all you have to do if you hav have So, if you're part of the Alpha report, you get the membership, right?

59. And the stocks you get the stock tab. You can download the app for free, but you don't get the stock tab unless you're a member, right? Anyway, so you go to the drop down on the right, you click RH. And then you can look at, you know, things that I've highlighted. You can download these things or whatever.

60. You can look at my fundamental analysis. Uh but listen to this line. I'm just saying the high-end furniture market, it's not coming back for years. And all it's going to mean is people are going to there's a lot of people going to close. He was basically about to say people are going to go bankrupt.

61. A lot of people are going to close, a lot of jobs are going to be lost, and I think people have to consider that. That's your CEO freaking out. Freaking out. Crazy, right? Oh, did I say February 29th? Yeah. November. November 29th is the blackout date. Anyway, so so like you know, and then when you look at the fundamentals, if you actually go look at the income statement, you should study the Restoration Hardware income statement and understand have they paid any money on tariffs yet?

62. And when you answer that question, you'll know is this pump on of 10% on Restoration Hardware fundamental or momentum? Spoiler alert, it's momentum because of Williams. Intraday momentum, not long-term momentum here, right? So, intraday bounce on these consumer plays that have gotten really cheap. I promise you Red Robin is going to look at this and they're going to issue a crap load of shares because they need to pay their bills.

63. So, this pump is because of the Fed. It's engineered by the Fed and it's great. That's what you want. I mean, Bitcoin was almost under 80,000. So, we're getting a nice little bounce and recovery. Fingers crossed it lasts. Now, if you're worried about liquidity, watch the close, okay? Because this close uh you know, coming up in 3 hours when the market closes, hopefully we regain 595.

64. If we can regain and hold 595, we could be bullish through December 8th. That's right before the Fed meeting. Uh but I think we'll get our rate cut over there. So, so let's hold 595 and let's hope the Williams pump actually holds. Rejecting this wouldn't be good. Uh but uh Oh, Kevin Hassett's yapping now.

65. Nick Tees talking about Kevin Hassett. Kevin Hassett, who is a candidate for Fed chair, tells Larry Kudlow the only way to explain the Fed decision not to cut in December would be anti-Trump partisanship. Right. Well, cuz they're under the impression that uh Democrats ruined the economy and therefore we need to cut.

66. All right. Whatever with the political partisanship. Uh that's not partisan, I guess. Anyway, so keep in mind I am still buying the dip at a fraction of what I've sold. Okay, so I sold a lot over the last couple months. Uh I do not think a recession is a foregone conclusion. I think there are viable dips.

67. I think there are stocks that I want to rotate continue rotating into over the next 10 years. So, I'm I'm not like, "Oh, we're definitely dead in the water or whatever." I'm still mid-range on the bear/bull scale. Uh and what does concern me though is this. I posted this uh yesterday on X. I'm at realMeetKevin if you want to follow me there.

68. But anyway, I wrote, "Wow, Robinhood Oh, and by the way, the delayed CPI data doesn't Whatever. The jobs data matters more. But anyway, I wrote, 'Wow, Robinhood is offering I I miswrote this. I corrected this in the comments. But basically, uh Robinhood will let you take on $16 million of margin if you have $6 million in in a Robinhood portfolio.

69. This is insane in my opinion. So, this kind of leverage I didn't even see in 2021 when I played with margin a lot. Uh you know, I like if I had a million bucks in M1 Finance, they'd let me take like 30% on margin, right? Uh maybe up to 50% on some platforms. You really had to go to some of the advanced trading platforms to get three to four X margin.

70. And Robinhood is literally letting you do three to four X margin right now. And that's scary to me. I think that's very dangerous and you should utilize bounces like this when we do have these bounces, you should utilize them to ask yourself, am I too high in debt? Should I trim a little bit here? Should I take some profits here?

71. And should I move into a little bit more of a safer sleep better at night position? You know, my argument is absolutely. But then again, you know, I don't know your personal financial situation. So, I I just think these are bounceable opportunities thanks to the Fed. And maybe they give you an opportunity to go diversify into something fun like like house hack. Why? Because that's why. Exactly. So, anyway, that's my take. .