저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 1970년대 스태그플레이션을 돌아보며, 당시 인플레이션은 연준과 정부의 통제 실패에서 비롯됐고 볼커의 기준금리 인상(약 19%, 1981년 9월 정점)으로 해결됐다고 설명한다. 그는 현재 시장이 40년 강세장에 익숙해져 저금리와 저인플레가 영원할 것이라 믿는 점을 1970년대 말 채권 혐오와 대비시키며, 역사적으로 최저 수준인 금리 아래에서 채권은 버블이라고 주장한다. 미국 국채뿐 아니라 정크본드, 러시아 채권까지 포함한 전 세계 채권 버블을 언급하며, 버블에서는 회의론자와 맹신자 모두 파산한다는 교훈을 전한다. 과거 금 공매도(675달러→875달러 급등)와 원유 공매도 사례를 들어, 차트상 갭 상승으로 과열(hysteria)을 찾아 공매도하고 패닉에 매수하는 방식을 설명하지만, 그 과정에서 손실 위기를 겪었다고 회고한다. 전반적으로 현재 채권 시장을 강하게 경계하는 견해이며, 구체적 가격 목표는 제시하지 않는다. 출연자 전망: 채권은 버블이며 과열 자산 공매도 전략을 선호하나 버블은 예측보다 오래 간다고 강조.
다듬은 글
the rebel capitalist show you started investing if i recall in the late 1960s i don't know how much attention you were paying to macro at the time but i know you were really in the weeds during the 1970s and that was of course the time during significant not only inflation but stagflation and that's a concern of so many people in the united states right now i wanted to explore what it was like in the 1970s as far as the the consumer prices going up did you did you notice prices going up or did you just look at the cpi or how was it actually living through it well no it was very easy to notice prices going up because everything was going up gasoline you know anything in those days everything was going up because uh the fed was out of control the government everybody was out of control in those days and for a variety of reasons prices of everything especially oil and since oil is the most important to everybody's daily or professional lives everybody noticed something was wrong uh and it was very easy you know oil went from something like three dollars a barrel to 40 dollars a barrel in a decade and that everybody noticed that because it also affected everything else including wheat bread you you name it everything happens so we all saw it and of course the government uh blamed it on other people as they always do and of course they finally tried to do something about it nobody would take the necessary actions nixon got thrown out so he couldn't even if he wanted to do the right thing then along came other guys it was finally jimmy carter who became the president in 76 and he called in um paul volcker to be the head of the fed and i don't know how jimmy carter had a clue but he he said to volca okay you do whatever is necessary to stop this inflation and volcker knew what to do here's the problem he at least had that much sense you know we haven't had very many good central bankers in the in the history of the world and certainly not in the us but he knew and for god's sakes volca took interest rates to short-term interest rates to 19 uh in in a short period of time and every everybody noticed that as you can as you could well imagine but it worked it worked he he broke the back of demand it was the demand partner there was the problem supply obviously too and prices stopped going up interest rates stopped going up i mean the interest rates peaked in september of 1981.
yeah it was right around anyway yeah and uh september 1981 was the top for interest rights and then well i guess you know the more or less know the rest of the story yeah what i'm trying to figure out is the attitude of the market and trying to use that as a learning experience for people today so what i mean by that is you know we look back in hindsight's 2020 and in retrospect say oh my gosh it was so easy to tell that interest rates would go down for the next 40 years or that we wouldn't have any more inflation if we were living in 1980 or 81.
but i i assume that the market was just as confident back then that we would have inflation forever as the market is as confident today that we'll never see inflation again well as you know that the bond market was in a 40-year had been in a 40-year bear market yeah at that time after the second world war interest rates hit the bottom and for a variety of reasons and started going up it went up until september of 1981 and so after 40 years whenever the market sees something for 40 days it thinks it's going to go on forever but certainly 40 40 years you know 40 years you know all these guys go around and say oh my god this is this is great this company's been growing for five years it's going to go on forever well you and i have been around long enough to know no no it doesn't necessarily work that way it might work that way but it's unlikely it's unlikely you know everybody of course was assumed that things would be great carter had first the first guy he brought in his head of the feb and he just assumed that if he printed money and continued to print money everything would be fine and carter at first as hecari didn't know uh said okay we'll do that too but then it didn't work and things really started getting out of control and that's when carter said okay there's this guy paul volcker or somebody said to carter there's this guy paul volcker who had essentially been a a bureaucrat a career bureaucrat but but he talked the right talk he talked like he knew what he was doing and it turns out he was right and he knew what had had to be done and so he came in and did it now people were skeptical at first uh nope nobody had any confidence in bonds in the late 70s there was smart guys who go around saying things like these are instruments of eternal confiscation or something in other words buying a bond was total insanity and you would lose everything in your lifetime yeah because they were determined to confiscate everything you have so no no there was this there was no confidence that prices would ever go down not by many people in in any way um so it's just a mirror of what we see today no no we've had now had a 40-year bear market yeah and everyone's saying that we'll never see inflation and interest rates will be low forever yes interest rates have gone up to 40 years now or gone down for 40 years bonds have gone up for 40 years so people assume that this is right and that if you buy bonds everything i mean you see the gigantic demand for bonds even junk bonds uh everybody assumes that they have to own bonds and that bonds will save them i'm not as smart as most people but i've been around long enough and i've read enough to know that's not the way it's going to work out interest rates have never been this low in recorded history never in the world and so you ask me bonds are a bubble we've never had a bubble one of the easiest bubbles to spot in the world for me right now are bonds especially us government bonds but bonds everywhere i mean everywhere even marginal bonds even russian bonds are above all russian bonds are yielding more than most bonds but still it's a bubble they've never been this low in recorded history interest rates have never been this low so i know this is a bubble i i recognize a bubble i've read enough about bubbles to know but of course nobody i mean george you know as well as i do the demand for bonds is gigantic everywhere and if you want to sell the junkiest junk bond you can somebody will buy it and you'll be over subscribed yeah but going back to when when volcker increased interest rates and he took them up to 19 fed funds what was going through your mind personally at that time if you recall and did you did you see that as an opportunity to go long uh bonds uh no we went short go yeah i remember you saying that to jack schweiger and he was asking you you're telling him how you like to fade hysteria or you like to find hysteria in the charts i think is what because he asked you if you if you trade or you invest specifically in fundamentals and you said the only time that you look at charts is when you try to find hysteria and he said and you use the example of shorting gold i think it was like 650 dollars uh an ounce and he said well shoot it went up to 800 or whatever and he said that you missed the top by about four days uh something to that effect and he's like oh well how you know um how did you tell when to get in and you said that you look at the charts and you look for when the charts gap up yeah charters can tell you better than i can hysteria basically i think i said i hope i said in that interview you you short hysteria and you buy panic and you can see often you can see pat you don't have to look at the charts i mean just turn on the internet and you can you can feel hysteria uh and you can feel panic you you've been around enough to know what it sounds like and feels like and gold literally we shorted gold at 675 and it went to 875 you know within a few days it was not fun we were sitting there looking like damn fools ourselves you know um but fortunately we weren't smart enough to cover and it it collapsed quickly it quickly collapsed as you well know and and and we survived but since gold was considered the bellwether or the the the bell for gold for his inflation uh it was clear that if volcker was going to pull it off that was the best way to play well we all i was also talking about shorting oil too at the time but we shorted gold as the the clearest panning or the clearest hysteria at the time uh we shorted other things but but goal was the hysteria play in those days um and we shorted gold unfortunately we survived uh i'm not sure how but no i've shorted enough hysteria in my day to know george is not fun you know i've i've i've been around i've been around and read about enough bubbles you know bubbles wipe out two people the people who are skeptical about the bubble they said this is a bubble this is going to collapse they get wiped out because bubbles do really insane things and they go on and on they do nobody can believe what a bubble uh what happens in above and the other people that bubbles wipe out are the believers because then they're all these guys who believe it's different this time yes gold is going to a thousand let me show you let me show you history blah blah blah i mean they could so the skeptics get wiped out because they know it's going to end but they go along much longer than they believe and and the believers because then all these guys come along and say wait a minute you don't understand it's different now this is the this is a change in civilization blah enable it and then they get wiped out so bubbles wipe out two classes of people the skeptics and the believers i've learned that so i i i don't short as many bubbles now as i used to because i know what they will do
Comments 0