저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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결론: 정부지출 확대와 공급 위축이 인플레이션을 키우며, 금·은·백금은 가격 조정 후 반등 가능성이 크다는 견해. 재정·인플레이션: 정부지출이 GDP의 약 3%에서 코로나 이후 약 60%로 늘었다고 주장하며, 민간 생산 위축이 지속되면 재화·서비스 공급이 줄어 물가가 오를 것으로 봄. 보조금·기본소득이 지속되면 물가 상승 압력이 커진다는 입장. 노동·투기 풍조: 젊은 세대가 주식·비트코인 단타에 몰리고 노동을 기피하며, 우버 기사 부족도 인센티브 왜곡 사례로 제시. 사회 생산성 저하 우려 표명. 금 전망: 금은 지난 6개월(2020년 8월 이후) 약 18% 하락, 금광주는 30~40% 하락했다고 설명. 금 ETF 2종의 자산이 감소 중이며 이는 거품이 아니라는 신호라고 해석. 기술적으로 주가가 양호하고 금·은·백금이 상당한 반등을 할 것으로 봄. 다만 금 5,000달러 도달은 예상하지 않음. 실질금리: 1970년대는 실질금리 마이너스에서 금이 상승, 1980년대는 고금리에서 금이 하락한 과거 경험을 근거로 실질금리와 금의 관계를 설명. 높은 실질금리는 금뿐 아니라 부동산·소비·가상자산에도 불리하다고 봄. 비트코인·가상자산: 가상자산 열풍이 꺾여야 금이 본격 상승할 수 있다고 봄. 비트코인은 더 오를 수 있다고 언급했으나, 가상자산 공급 증가 우려를 제기. 대체투자 판단: 정부 통계와 정책에 대한 불신을 이유로 금 비중을 최근 늘렸으며, 금은 상대적으로 안전한 자산이라고 판단. 리스크: 금 가격 추가 하락 가능성과 가상자산 강세 지속 시 금 수요 부진을 언급.
다듬은 글
the rebel capitalist show going back prior to the federal reserve the the government accounted for about three percent of gdp government spending now prior to covid it was around 45 when you include the local governments and and now it's uh it's close to 60 percent uh of of gdp is government spending so you know to your point if this continues where is the level where um the the private sector just continues to shrink and shrink and shrink as far as economic output and you know that leads me to kind of thinking through inflation because it's not just the demand side of the equation it's also the supply side and if the private sector is producing less then that would lead me to believe that there's fewer goods and services for people to buy therefore prices going up assuming that they're continuing with the stimulus or universal basic income that is correct whether prices will go up it depends on a number of factors but i think in general i want to give you an example i know a young man and he's uh not the most intelligent person i know he's failed he's failed his school exams so he started the apprenticeship but he also failed at the apprenticeship which is quite an achievement in europe because in europe usually everybody goes on you know the apprentice some are a bit better somewhere but to fail is very unusual in countries that are that have a socialist mentality but anyway he failed he wrote me i invested in december in bitcoins he couldn't open an account because he was too young but at the po at the railway stations apparently in switzerland you can buy fractional bitcoins instead of buying a ticket you can buy bitcoin and so he bought and it's gone up three times and then he said he also wanted to buy a game stop at the time it was twenty dollars and he couldn't because he was too young and his mother didn't want to over cowboy but basically uh he did well with his account you understand so the guy he thinks why should i work i can make money in stocks so a whole generation of young people is coming up who are day traders they don't work anything they they rather stay at home they go out to the pub or anywhere and they meet the guy he earns three thousand dollars a month and they can earn three thousand day trading a day they think the guy who works in a job is an idiot it creates i tell you you want to destroy a society print money this is the worst that can happen the very worst and you will see in america capital spending will be poor because the regulatory environment is so bad against the small businessman they don't want him they hate him the small businessman who is the korean and asian they also hate him because he's an asian the americans for some reason they have to link everything oh it's because of russia oh it's because of china you're right it's never the politicians that fail yeah yeah that that's a fantastic point on another anecdotal story that i'll let you know uh i've been in the u.s and and now here in tucson at least it is almost impossible to get an uber driver almost impossible mark and i don't know if you used uber when you were here in the united states in two years ago but it was maybe five minutes almost anywhere you were in the united states yes five minutes and you'd have an uber driver now every single time i try to get uber it just says no cars available no cars available no cars available you're lucky if you can get one within 45 minutes and it goes right where is that the shortage of drivers yeah there's just no drivers no one's willing to work so yes this is the incentive many people get more money from the government than if they would work then they have a disincentive to work yeah and then to your point with whether it's bitcoin or stocks or whatever we've we've turned everyone into day traders i remember i was out at a golf course the other day on a driving range and it was right next to the local university university of arizona and there was like three groups of young college students next to me hitting ball so i was kind of listening to what they're saying mark every single group every single one of them was talking about trading cryptocurrency every one of them that's all they were talking about and so it's just i think if people realize that society's wealth is not a measurement of how many currency units are in the banking system but the but the amount of stuff that you can buy the amount of goods and services it produces then people would realize that the path were on but it's i just um i don't have any hope there for people realizing it but let's take it back to an investment theme here um gold has gone down for the last six months or so and i wish it would go down further because i'd like to buy more and i like the gold miners here because it seems like everyone's just completely forgotten about the gold and gold miners and focused on other things where you can get a 10x return in a week so what's your view on gold in the gold miners right now uh for the long term well what you said is absolutely correct for the last six months since august last year in 2020 the the gold gold is down 18 and the gold miners in some cases are down 30 40 i mean they had a big correction and i think at the present time we had for the last two months selling of the two major gold etfs so the assets of two major gold etfs are contracting that's actually a very good news because it shows gold and silver and platinum are really not in a bubble you're right you know they're not in a bubble now someone may say well they've had it because of this and that and so forth but in general i would say technically also if i look at the stock prices today i think they look actually good and i think they will rally now would i predict that gold will go to 5 000 no but i think gold and silver and platinum are in a position to have quite a significant rally yeah do you think that is predicated upon uh real interest rates because there's a lot of talk that uh it's all about real interest rates so if real interest rates are increasing then that's negative for gold i actually talked to bill fleckenstein about that and he said that that's not always true that that was his view based on his experience so what is your experience with the price of gold and real interest rates is there are they directly correlated well in the 70s real interest rates were always negative and gold went up and in the 80s real interest rates were high and gold went down and uh between 1999 and today interest rates were depends how you measure inflation but in general they were not high in real terms in other words they tended to be negative and gold has done okay now i think uh a different view would be to say well if interest rates are high in real terms then it's bad for a lot of assets not only gold it would be bad for real estate it would be bad for consumption it would be bad also for cryptocurrencies i think the key for gold taking off or taking off is that the cryptocurrency craze comes to an end i'm not giving a view here whether there is merit to some cryptocurrencies i think eventually the whole world will have cryptocurrencies but it also means that the supply of cryptocurrencies is going up a lot in future now maybe the one or the other crypto like ethereum ethereum and uh especially bitcoins they may become the most accepted ones and the ones that perform best i think bitcoins could go much higher but as long as these cryptos go up strongly uh the big buyers of the big potential buyers of gold silver platinum will not be there they have already positions the outstanding position in gold is large and they may add a little bit or like you they may say well i'll buy if it comes down in the final sell-off i have recently increased my position in gold because i consider it to be an asset of relatively high safety and i don't trust a the governments and i don't trust the economic statistics they publish all i can tell you if you open your eyes you can see how many businesses have closed you can think how many will reopen
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