저자: JimRogers/진행GeorgeGammon · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 러시아 주식 등 전쟁·제재 자산은 아직 충분히 패닉이 아니며, 시장 재개와 급등락 신호를 확인한 뒤 진입해야 한다는 신중론. 러시아 자산: 루크오일·스베르방크·가즈프롬 등 저평가 주식은 매우 싸지만 현재 러시아 내에서도 해외에서도 매수가 불가능해 투자 여건이 아님. 러시아 시장이 재개되어 급락하면 매수 신호로 보고, 반대로 급등하면 초기 급등 구간에서만 대응하겠다는 입장. 과거 사례: 2011년 일본 쓰나미 이후 추가 매수해 수년간 주가가 4배 상승한 경험 언급. 반면 1960년 쿠바 투자는 장기간 회복되지 않은 실패 사례로 제시. 이라크 전쟁은 투자 가능한 시장이 없었다고 설명. 규제 리스크: 정부가 규칙을 바꿔 매매를 막는 일이 흔하며(쿠웨이트, 헌트 형제 은 사례, 1980년대 일본·대만 사례 등), 위기 자산일수록 이 리스크를 항상 경계해야 한다고 강조. 정보 판단: 전쟁에서는 진실이 가장 먼저 희생된다는 점을 들어, 여러 국가(러시아·우크라이나·미국 등)의 출처를 교차 확인해야 한다고 조언. 지정학: 냉전 붕괴 후 동유럽·러시아에 소규모 투자를 했으나, 장기 관리 부실로 기회가 제한적이었다고 회고. NATO 확대에 대해서는 직접적 예측을 하지 않음. 베네수엘라: 붕괴 상황에서도 미국 제재로 투자가 막혔다고 비판하고, 현재 미국이 제재 대상 러시아 대신 베네수엘라 원유 생산을 요구하는 것을 위선적이라고 지적. 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 명확하지 않음.
다듬은 글
the rebel capitalist show yeah i'm assuming that you had russia on a watch list prior to the invasion i i can't you know it was on the thursday or whatever and uh so what kept you what prevented you from investing when like luke oil and spur bank and gazprom i'm sure a lot of businesses that you follow very closely uh when they were when they were really taking a haircut they're getting super cheap but obviously not as cheap as they are now with everything frozen so what what made you um why were you patient what what made you disciplined there i didn't buy any of those shares because i just didn't think it was enough panic yet uh it turned out i was right but and so i for once it's a good thing i didn't work i didn't do something and now i cannot do something some of those socks are just unbelievably cheap unless russia is going to disappear which is not likely some of these things would be great buys if we could buy them but i don't even think the russians can buy these stocks now i know they cannot in moscow yeah so have you seen something like this happen before what what time in your your investing career have you seen something similar to this and what was it well i would just go back and say and by the way george you don't always it's not always good to invest i said before if you have the same hour and you can do it you will make a lot of money if you'd invested in cuba in 1960 you'd still be waiting so i don't think it's always that easy uh we've had wars and problems before uh i remember when japan had a tsunami back in 2011.
yeah i was already buying japan and then the tsunami hit and i bought a lot more to my delight and shock and you know the market quadruple in the next few years uh it's not quite the same as the war that we're seeing now i cannot remember it's just i'm not thinking about it uh war situations like this with which it presented markets and a presented opportunity that a big market iraq was a war there was no place basically no market so you have to find a place that has a market a viable market and a disaster the asians who've been around longer than we have have a word that means what it means is opportunity and disaster are the same thing right it's interesting the chinese character the korean character and the japanese character are all exactly the same they're pronounced differently opposite but they all mean opportunity and disaster are together so how are you personally play playing it from here moving forward like what would be the catalyst i know that you know we've talked about this several times and this is the conclusion that jesse and i actually came to and we were thinking through what would jim rogers do right now he said he'd probably be hyper focused on russia but he probably wouldn't have pulled the trigger he'd probably be waiting for a catalyst for for some sort of change to give you the green light so what are you intently focused on when there is that catalyst i don't think it's possible to invest in many things if any things in the russian financial markets right now certainly not outside of russia not inside russia either or if that's possible maybe outside russia the catalyst would be that it opens and since i would be a little cautious the catalyst would be well it opens and then i will watch to see what happens if it opens and everything totally collapses that would be a signal that i should be behind and then what if it does the opposite what if it opens and it just skyrockets well i'd say well i had a good idea but i was a footwork i didn't do anything but it would depend you know when they open and they skyrocket usually for a few minutes if you're there an alert you can do something obviously if you're late you're late and you miss it you know i i don't i nothing you can do i don't want to buy something when it's skyrocketing unless i'm in at the beginning of the skyrocket yeah yeah i went back in and reviewed some of the uh you know the stuff some of the trades that you made or the investments i should say uh back in the 1980s that i thought was kind of applicable to this from the standpoint of you you actually didn't pull the trigger because you thought they may uh just close the market they thought they may take your shares but one that came to mind was i believe japan in uh in 1990 when they collapsed or or maybe it was in the late 80s you're thinking about shorting japan but you're hesitant because you thought they may change the rules i think that was your specific line and you used the example of the q8 stock market in 1981 or 1982 when they were allowing people to buy shares with post-dated stocks or post-dated checks excuse me and you said that you wanted to short that so bad but you didn't because you knew that the government would do something where you couldn't get your money back and so that kind of reminded me of what we're seeing play out in russia today well they always not always but the government's frequently changed the rules one in the kuwait example was a very good example they especially would change the rules if they wanted to but it's a risk anywhere for instance now russia has changed the rules they close the market they make it impossible to buy and sell anything that you can't even buy government bonds uh foreigners cannot buy government bonds and russians can't either because everything is closed they do change the rules i've seen many times they change the rules you remember the hunt brothers back in maybe you remember when they were shorting uh they were buying silver and then the exchange changed the rules to protect the members you know exchanges aren't supposed to supposed to protect the customers but in chicago they they protected the members and the hunts went bankrupt because they changed the rules on them uh you always have to be careful of that especially if it's a country because countries all are not always but very frequently will change the rules someone has to watch out how do you hedge that just through position size or is there some other way i don't know anyway uh you just have to know i have enough experience or read enough to know that okay if they change the rules what do i do and the haunts who didn't have much experience there was nothing they could do because the exchange was had more power than they did and the exchange changed the rules to protect the members members were all shorting to the hunts um the ones had a lot of money in those days a lot of margin power uh and i i certainly did not know if they were going to change the routes in those days but if they want you always have to be aware if you're investing in something that's moving a lot or a disaster somebody will or could change the roots right right it's not fair it should not happen it's not the way the world's supposed to work so call your congressman yeah so now you you touched on a point there that i wanted to bring up you're saying you know with your reading and now you know we've got the media and there is just so much propaganda in in the wet i don't know if you're staying current with the western media if you're in singapore but it's just uh it just seems obnoxious at times but i know that there's an equal amount of propaganda probably on the russian side so how in your in your career of investing how do you sift through the propaganda to try to find the truth as to what's actually happening it is an extremely insightful question and i'm delighted you asked it but i tell my daughters who i'm trying to teach how to live and in the world i tell them try to read or listen to four or five sources from four or five different countries because every country tells you the truth they think they're telling you the truth but the problem is if you listen to five different countries it cannot all be the truth so only and i do it myself it's why i try to teach my children you have to listen to the sources from everywhere and then you still might not get it right then you have to put it in your poor brain and turn it around and figure out what's really happening especially in war i'm not the first person to know that what was the same truth is the first casualty of war you know even the greeks knew that thousands of years ago with american american senator said that in the first world war truth is the first casualty of war at least if you know that you got a leg up because then you will realize okay now we have to figure out what's really happening and that requires listening to stories from everywhere you listen to the russian side the ukrainian side the american side they're all they all tell you a different story i i know you were following geopolitics quite a bit back in the 90s i would assume when uh kind of the soviet union fell and the berlin wall came down and i think that was about that that was uh when nato was formed i believe when the soviet union crumbled so what was your impression of nato back in the 90s or the late 90s and did you ever think that uh they they would play a part in in what we're seeing today were you hesitant were you a little bit worried back then that uh that it might not go well uh that russia might push back well a slight correction though nato was formed after the second world war uh not in not in the uh when the berlin wall fell okay uh when the berlin wall fell they started expanding to some of the super european countries um no well when the berlin wall fell everybody was excited and delighted i was looking for investments i started making small investments in in central europe and russia because i mean russia is a gigantic country with huge huge huge assets i mean it's been abysmally managed for a lot of the its history but there were and are opportunities whenever something falls apart it's as i say again if you can invest in a disaster you're probably going to make a lot of money if you have the staying power it's not that easy i repeat the cuban example it was a disaster we'd still be waiting north korea you would still be waiting so it's not that simple yeah but i think the key goes back to not only finding uh panic and buying panic but also waiting to buy panic once there is a significant catalyst that that's really the the key absolutely i i went to uh venezuela uh sometimes even last year but during the total collapse i went down and it was a total collapse but then america said sanctions you cannot invest in venezuela so yeah and then the venezuelans didn't change the rules i'd love for somebody to come and invest but america said no you cannot invest there yeah and we're citizen we're citizens of the land of the free george we're not so free sometimes yeah exactly but now it's you know the united states is trying to get venezuela to produce more oil to make up for the sanctions against russia it's just amazing how the politicians are are so hypocritical these guys exactly hypocritical i'm sure there's a worse word than that to describe these guys you know they've been shrieking about venezuela for a long time doing everything they can to punish them and now they're saying oh hello hello venezuelan breasts got you oil yeah exactly
Comments 0