저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 연준의 대규모 유동성 공급과 재정 부양이 주가·부동산을 끌어올렸지만 일반 서민은 여전히 고통받고 있으며, 이런 인위적 부양 경제는 중단이 어려워 결국 더 많은 부양이 이어질 것이라는 진단이다. 인플레이션·금리 관점: 연준 대차대조표가 약 1년간 4조 달러 가까이 늘었고, 재정부양까지 겹쳐 인위적 경제가 형성됐다. 10년물 국채금리는 2020년 8월 저점 이후 3배 이상 올랐으나, 금리 상승이 부양 중단으로 이어질지는 정치적 질문이다. 달러·자산 관점: 부양이 계속되면 주식은 더 오를 수 있으며, 달러 약세가 그 배출구가 된다. 다른 중앙은행도 돈을 찍으면 달러가 일부 통화에 강할 수 있지만, 귀금속·암호화폐·상품에 대해서는 약세가 예상된다. 채권시장은 어느 시점엔 약해질 것으로 본다. 금리 방향 관점: 미 10년물이 1.7%에서 1.3~1.4%로 내려가면 달러가 다시 약해질 것으로 본다. 역발상 매매로 10년물이 매력적이지만 장기 보유용은 아니고, TLT ETF를 단기 트레이드로 사면 약 10% 반등 가능하다고 언급한다. 미국 사회 관점: 미국 경제가 부양에 의존하는 헤로인 중독자 같다고 비유하며, 노숙자 증가와 극단적 부의 양극화를 지적한다.
다듬은 글
the rebel capitalist show let me just go and start by getting kind of your what you're thinking about right now as far as macro maybe pertaining to the united states and inflation interest rates yield curve control and then we'll kind of expand on that well as you know we have uh artificial stimulus in the form of expansionary monetary policies where the federal reserve's balance sheet has expanded by close to four trillion dollars over the last 12 months and other central banks are also printing money and expanding the balance sheets and at the same time we have now fiscal expansion in other words biden's stimulus packages where money is being handed out or under the pretext of infrastructure expenditures money is being stolen by politicians for their own agenda so basically we have an artificial economy it's not the normal economy that moves on its own but it requires this artificial stimulus and what it this artificial stimulus has done admittedly it's propelled the snp and other indices to the highest level ever in the united states and even recently emerging markets have performed very well and european markets have also begun to be to perform well so stocks are okay uh property prices have gone up again and in some areas substantially in the main cities not and not for commercial properties that may be a third empty and for housing in the center of cities that hasn't done well but in the countryside it's done very well as i expected and we have of course this artificially low interest rate where bonds are very expensive in europe you still have close to a third of the government bonds having a negative yield in the u.s we had a route in the government bond market for the last say three four months where the yield on the 10 years treasury has more than trebled from the lows in august 2020.
so now the question comes up what happens if this artificial stimulus stops or will this artificial stimulus continue and as in economics as is the case in economics in order to keep its momentum will it will it have to be increased over time so this is a very uh you know it is more a political question and i'm afraid to say that this artificial stimulus has actually worsened conditions for many people it's improved the conditions of the 0.01 percent of the population that are big shareholders big property owners and the voice but the normal guy on the street what i would call the average person the typical person worldwide is still suffering very badly from the crisis that was induced by governments it wouldn't have had to be this bad but governments with their continuous intervention and they know their know it better attitude and their arrogance and viciousness they have destroyed the lives of millions of people that have lost their businesses with which they had built up with accumulated savings these businesses will not come back yeah that's right and let's go back to the kind of the plight of the average joe and jane i read a study that incomes in the united states and this was a study done by the government the the bureau of economic analysis i believe from q1 to q2 in 2020 average incomes in the united states actually went up by 30 percent because uh just from q1 to q2 because of the additional stimulus and unemployment benefits but to your earlier point are we building the entire economy around stimulus checks so the entire demand side of the equation is government spending and what comes to mind there is venezuela because you've got an economy that's completely built around one thing and when venezuela it was oil so when the price of oil goes down so does the whole economy they've got a print to get their way out you get hyperinflation but is the united states doing the same thing in the sense that they're building their entire economy around one thing and that's stimulus therefore it becomes a political question that that the economist and and the investor has to ask themselves do we get more stimulus less stimulus no stimulus and that answers all the questions that you need uh you know to figure out what to do with your portfolio well i think we'll get more stimulus because once you went down the path of money printing the fed has been expanding its balance sheet for the last 30 40 years but at an accelerating rate since the great financial crisis in 2008 but that has to continue otherwise the system collapses they tried to normalize it between 2018 and august 2019 they tried to reduce the balance sheet but then in 2019 in august there were some problems in the repo market as you remember right and then immediately the fed decided to flood the system again with liquidity that was long before covet 19 became an issue so we can see it's once you embark on money printing it's very difficult and only possible under great pain to do it and the us with its voc society where even large corporations are now becoming vogue right and they will not do that yeah so we we the the answer is yes we're continually we've built an economy now around government spending and stimulus but it's i always look at it as a heroin addict in the sense that the heroin addict starts to take the drug and they get more and more addicted if you're talking about hunter biden or what well i'm talking about the u.s economy and he is a typical representative of the u.s economy with a dad who runs the country right that's america nowadays yeah well when's the last time you were in the states two years ago well i i don't spend much time in the states but i've been here over the last six months and i can almost assure you that if you came back today you wouldn't recognize it you you wouldn't already two years ago i was treated like a criminal if i had a cigarette somewhere oh you you can't even imagine what it's like now but now you've got 10 times more homeless people i mean i'm in tucson right now it's it's everywhere you go especially downtown it's homeless people it's people addicted to drugs and you've got that and then you go to downtown scottsdale and every single person is driving a ferrari those are the two oh seriously those are the two groups of individuals that you have and that's what this has done that's what this one-trick pony economy has produced that is dependent on government stimulus but to your point it's like the heroin addict they need more and more and more of the drug to get the same effect so assuming that that's what the american economy's future looks like how does that play out with interest rates with stocks with and then with the dollar of course yes i mean stocks can go up a lot more if you keep on printing money the escape valve is then a dollar that weakens but you understand if the other central banks do the same namely print money or even more so like the turks if the brazilian did then the dollar could be strong against some currencies but it will go down against precious metals and cryptocurrencies right or goods and services yeah that's what will happen the bond market will of course weaken at some point it's actually interesting the dollar has been strong but not that strong considering that i can buy now a u.s treasury at 10 years at the yield of 1.7 and in europe in germany i get a negative yield or in switzerland you understand the yield differential has uh grown dramatically and it hasn't made the dollar much stronger so if we think this through through then if the interest rates in the us came down again and i happen to think that the economy is not as strong as the market is perceiving it to be then i think that 10 years if they go down to say 1.4 1.3 percent from the 1.7 i think the dollar will weaken again so you see the longer the yield curve actually coming back down more uh yeah i think so we'll take hold again yes i i think as a contrarian trade i think the 10 years looks quite attractive to buy but not for the long term you understand it would have been for a tr for a trade where say you buy there's an etf the tlt if you buy the tlt today i think it could rally ten percent
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