저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 원자재는 현재 역사적으로 가장 싼 자산군이며, 특히 은·원유 등 상품은 고점 대비 크게 하락해 장기적 상승 여지가 있다. 원자재 가격 상황: 은은 사상 최고가 대비 약 70% 하락, 원유는 50% 이상 하락해 자산군 중 가장 저렴하다고 평가했다. 반면 미국 주식은 대부분 그렇지 않다고 언급. 구조적 변화: 전기차는 일반 차보다 구리를 약 5배 더 쓰고, 탄소 배출 억제 흐름 속에 우라늄·태양광·풍력 등 대체 에너지 수요가 변화하고 있다. 우라늄은 오염이 적지만 사고 시 큰 피해가 가능하다는 리스크가 있다. 공급 측면: 셰일 오일 붐은 상당 부분 꺼졌고, 확인 매장량 원유는 감소 추세. 납 사례처럼 수요가 줄어도 공급이 더 빠르게 줄면 가격은 상승한다고 설명. 석탄: 본인이 석탄 회사 이사이며 석탄을 보유 중. 인도·중국 등은 경제가 석탄에 의존해 단기간 대체가 어렵다고 봄. 은: 보유 중이며 향후 추가 매수 계획. 고점 재돌파 가능성 언급(시기는 불명확). 리스크/조건: 과열(버블)이 형성되면 위험하며 채권은 버블 상태라고 평가. 게임스탑 사태 관련해서는 숏 인터레스트 확인의 중요성 강조, 공모 여부는 판단 불가. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 원자재 강세를 기대하나 매수 시점은 특정하지 않음.
다듬은 글
the rebel capitalist show what do you think about commodities right now because they they were you know in a bear market for quite some time and then uh going into march 2020 they really got crushed and i i was fortunate to kind of learn from from you and go in there and buy things when they're hated and kind of buy panic if you will so i i bought uranium and some copper some producers and oil and i actually bought coal as well but some of those have gone up very significantly and i always get like copper as an example and so i always get asked you know should i buy it now because historically just for inflation the price isn't cheap but there's a very strong argument why it's got a lot of tailwind so i for me personally i hesitate because you know i always like to start that question like we said earlier is it cheap and historically it's not but it's got so much tailwind i don't how would you analyze that well as i look around the world we've discussed an obvious bubble which is bonds we've discussed some stocks property in some markets the cheapest asset class that i see is commodities i mean silver is down you know 50 percent from its all-time high that's not a typo 50.
it's down what 70 from its all-time high i mean that was not down 70 from its all-time high most american stocks aren't so commodities are to me the clearest cheapest asset class in the world as we speak oil is down 50 from more than 50 percent from its all-time high et cetera et cetera so as an asset class that is certainly cheap now to find change i'm just going to go through a couple of examples i mean you men you mentioned copper well you know everybody's raving about electric automobiles an electric automobile uses five times as much copper as a regular automobile right now that's changed and it seems to me that everybody wants electric automobiles now so there does seem to be change taking place uh everybody is worried about pollution well uranium doesn't cause pollution i mean if you get uranium right it's cheaper cleaner etc etc now if you make a mistake it's a disaster you blow up your whole country you blow up your whole your whole society but they've only been two or three disasters like that in recorded history that doesn't mean it won't happen but uranium is a place you mentioned i haven't owned uranium too it happens to be a place where there is possibly great change taking place everybody in the world is anti-carbon pollution everybody in the world so you look for an alternative solar water et cetera i mean they say yeah wind if they but they're not as efficient as uranium or not as cheap as uranium if you subsidize them yes but that's not a real way to build an economy or to build a country a country or even an industry so yes i can see change taking place in various commodities known reserves of oil continue to decline except for fracking but the frackers you know fracking that bubble has popped there was a time if you could spell frankie george people would write you a check and now they realize well wait wait these guys got to make money they got to pay us back so that bubble has popped and known reserves of oil continue to decline so i can see reasons changes taking place in commodities where maybe one can make some money going long commodities and you as you can see i do own silver i plan to buy more silver somewhere along the line i don't know when and whether silver is a inflation hedge or not it doesn't matter people will believe it is before this is over and if they're all rushing around you know if all the 28 year olds are rushing around and say oh my god let me tell you about silver it leads to a bubble i would expect i mean the old time all-time high on silver was 50 us dollars an ounce wouldn't surprise me to see it there again before this is over yeah what do you think of coal well i i i own some coal i'm a director of a coal company um i mean we all know the the negative zone code if you don't you should watch george cameron he'll tell you uh and yes so but coal is still for better or for worse a cheaper source of power than most other things um all over the world and many parts of the world india china have to have coal their whole economy is built based on coal right now doesn't mean they're not trying to change they are trying to change of course but it takes a long time and in the meantime and not a lot of people rushing out opening coal mines i mean it's it's not i don't know how many kids are coming out of caltech saying i'm going to be a coal engineer yeah i'll say i'm going to palo alto you know they don't care about coal engineering they care about palo alto so i i'd rather own coal than not on coal but i think they're probably better things to own but no i certainly own coal yeah but i think the lesson there is that so many people especially with commodities they really get hyper focused on the demand side of the equation and quite often they forget the supply side and that's extremely perceptive of you because commodities are supply and demand let me tell you one quick story uh you you know lead you probably remember when there was uh leaded gasoline yeah yeah yeah uh we all remember when they were then lead was in paint you know then they came along and they took lead out of paint and they took lead out of gasoline so you would oh my god the two largest sources of demand for lead have disappeared that's going to be an unmitigated disaster well you go back and look at the history you see the lead went up a great deal and that's because the supply went down all the lead miners all the lead models so there's no demand for lead anymore what the hell am i doing i'm going to go to palo alto i'm not going to sit here minding it well there was no supply and let's still have some uses and so the price of lead went up a lot so to your point and you make a very good point it is supply and demand and you can have demand destroyed but if the supply is destroyed more you have a bull market yeah well i never knew that that that's such a great example to use in a lot of the things that we see today whether it's coal or oil or anything else so expanding on kind of what's cheap and what might be interesting that is off of people's radar and i always go back to and i i talk about this in my live streams all the time when people ask me for advice is i say you got to go back to what jim rogers told jack schwager and that that uh interview and i say you got to just sit there and sometimes you just do nothing that's the best thing to do sit just don't be patient don't have to always feel like you've got to do something and then wait for a big pile of money to show up in the corner and when you see it you just go pick it up and so i i think if we could get that mentality out especially today when everyone's trying to trade this and trade that and make a thousand percent return on this crypto and that uh you know game stop or or whatever by the way i'd love to get your opinion on that i didn't have that question written down but what do you think about what happened with gamestop do you did you follow that at all well i i yeah how could you not follow it if you were alive and you turned on the internet or the newspaper you had to know what was going on i did not play on either side my main surprise is i mean i shorted many stocks one of the first things i always do is i look at the short interest the short interest is public and i know that if there's a big short interest you have to be careful it's not my first rodeo so i i knew that um what surprises me is that those hedge funds apparently i don't know them apparently they're smart guys they looks like they did their fundamentals right uh but then they then shorted a sock with a gigantic short interest right you're waiting for somebody to come along and squeeze you i mean i've been squeezed i know but i've been short so i know about short squeezes in my day that's why i learned i learned the hard way so yeah i saw that and that's my surprise that they would anybody would short something with that bigger short interest no matter how bad the fundamentals now what is then obviously the other surprise is how high the stock went i mean it went from what six dollars to 500 or 400 or something that's a huge surprise but again i've seen this before um so that basically i haven't never bought nor sold that stock at all uh in my main lesson it's a lesson i've learned before is check the short interest before you short something always check the short interest because you can get squeezed and it's i mean i don't find anything illegal about a short squeeze um i guess what the government might say is well they acted in concert you know there was a conspiracy and maybe that's illegal i don't know i don't know enough facts to know but i don't i mean it to me it's just these guys were smart guys they looked at the show on interest and they said let's squeeze them and they did
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