저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 진실을 찾으려면 여러 나라의 출처를 듣고 스스로 판단해야 하며, 정부 말에 의존한 투자는 파산으로 이어질 수 있다. 선전과 정보 판별: 국가마다 자기 입장의 진실을 말하므로 최소 4~5개국의 출처를 듣고 교차 검증해야 한다. 전쟁에서는 진실이 가장 먼저 희생된다는 말을 인용했다. 좋은 투자자의 핵심 자질: 군중에 맞서 설 수 있는 능력이다. 모두가 하늘이 파랗다고 할 때 직접 창밖을 확인하는 태도가 중요하다고 강조했다. 싱가포르의 사기꾼 사례(리오틴토 관련 거짓 사업)를 들어, 전화 한 통으로 확인할 수 있는 것도 믿는 군중의 문제를 지적했다. 역발상의 어려움: 많은 사람이 자신을 역발상 투자자라 부르지만 실제 기회(예: 2020년 3월 코로나 폭락 시 매수)가 오면 망설인다고 언급했다. 말하기와 실행하기는 다르다. 러시아 투자 관련: 지금 러시아에 투자하고 싶다는 취지를 말했으나 현재는 투자할 수 없다고 했으며, 기회는 주기적으로 오고 모두가 공포에 질린다고 설명했다. 정부의 투자 조언은 따르지 말라고 강조했다. 투자 전략: 잭 샤거와의 일화를 인용해, 큰돈이 구석에 쌓여 있는 것이 보일 때까지 기다렸다가 줍는 방식이 자신의 스타일이라고 했다. 트레이더처럼 하루에도 여러 번 사고파는 방식은 피하고, 확실한 것을 사서 수년간 기다리는 것을 선호한다고 말했다. 변동과 패닉은 있겠지만 오래 가만히 두는 것이 핵심이다. 자기 분야 관찰: 자동차나 패션처럼 잘 아는 분야에서 급격한 변화를 포착하고 조사한 뒤 행동하는 것이 좋은 투자로 이어진다고 봤다. 핫팁 경계: 청중이 한 가지 핫팁을 원하지만 핫팁은 파산으로 이끈다는 경고로 마무리했다. 대상 자산 언급: 특정 종목·지수 및 시장 방향에 대한 구체적 가격 예측은 없음. 러시아 투자 관련 발언은 현재 투자 불가 상황에 대한 일반론이다.
다듬은 글
the rebel capitalist show now you know we've got the media and they is just so much propaganda in in the W I don't know if you're staying current with the Western media because you're in Singapore but it's just uh it just seems obnoxious at times but I know that there's an equal amount of propaganda probably on the Russian side so how in your in your career of investing how do you sift through through the propaganda to try to find the truth as to what's actually happening there is an extremely insightful question and I'm I'm delighted you ask it uh but I tell my daughters who I'm trying to teach how to live in in the world I tell them try to read or listen to four or five sources from four or five different countries because every country tells you the truth they think they're telling you the truth but the problem is if you listen to five different countries it cannot all be the truth so only and I do it myself this why I try to teach my children you have to listen to the sources from everywhere and then you still might not get it right then you have to put it in your poor brain and turn it around and figure out what's really happening uh especially in war I'm not the first person to know that what was this saying truth is the first casualty of War you know even the Greeks knew that thousands of years ago American American Senator said that in the first world war truth is the first casualty of War at least if you know that you got to leg up because then you will realize okay now we have to figure out what's really happening and that requires listening to stories from everywhere you listen to the Russian side the Ukrainian side the American side they're all they all tell you a different story just as kind of a a learning thought experiment I mean you've known some incredible investors uh in your life and you've known that the top guys and gals in the business uh what would you say the the top three attributes that make up a good investor that uh you know us amateurs looking on could could learn from is it is it risk management you know that's what I see all the time or is there something more to it what what's your Insight there well I don't know that I have the answer I I would become a great investor myself if I did I my main thing is the ability to stand against the crowd um or the ability to look at what's happening and say wait a minute that's not the right thing that's not the what that's not reality you know if everybody's saying the sky is blue these guys go over and look out the the window to see if the sky is blue and then often they say the sky is not blue and then they act when everybody's shrieking and on the TV and on the internet everybody saying the sky is blue the sky is blue some guys smart enough to go look out the window it's amazing to me how many people if the government says the sky is blue will not even look out the window not even ask I will tell you recently in in Singapore there was a guy charlatan a crook who was telling the whole world that he had a huge business with Rio tento the gigantic mining company and that he was selling lead to them huge amounts and he raised hundreds of millions of US dollars because of he had this very utive business of buying and selling to Rio nobody even called up Rio tento to say who is this guy you know this guy die are you doing hundreds of millions of all they had to do was make one phone call and they would have found that the whole G was a fraud I mean he's in jail now as he should be but what is the shock to me it's like I say I mean I'm not the first to know many people have learned that if the government says something enough times everybody believes it and back to the answer to your question is it's the people who have enough sense or curiosity or whatever to go against the crowd or to see to understand that the crowd cannot be right and that we should do something else yeah Everyone likes to call I've noticed Everyone likes to call themselves a contrarian investor until an opportunity comes up where it's very very difficult to pull the trigger and then all of a sudden they're they're saying oh well I'm GNA hold off on this one you know it reminds me of uh when coid really hit the markets in March of 2020 and I mean people thought the world was ending and the contrarian play back then was to step in and and buy and uh you know that was the right thing to do but very very few people did all the people that call themselves contrarian investors they were still sitting on the sidelines so it's one thing to say it it's a whole different thing to do it yeah well you ask what about successful investors those are the ones who do it who figured out and do it and back to the beginning of this conversation I would like to be investing in Russia right now cannot cannot maybe maybe I'm lucky that I cannot invest in Russia but uh these opportunities come up periodically and everybody is terrified and the government tells you blah blah blah please do not get your investment advice from the government any government certainly not the US government you're going to go broke if you rely on governments for your investment advice yeah look out the window and make up your own minds yeah that's right that's right and be patient yeah that's one thing we'll we'll end on that one of your quotes from Jack schagger he was asking you what your investment strategy was and you said you just wait till there's a big pile of money sitting in the corner and then you just go pick it up and he just he kept pushing you and he said well Jim what if you have a view that the Market's going to go up you know don't you you try to play that view and I think you told him specifically that that's the quick way to the poor house it is but I mean it it's amazing to me that if you now if you're a Trader you cannot do it I mean I Roy Newberg some great traders in in the world I'm re dead now but you know these guys couldn't wait five minutes before they bought and so bought and so bought and so that's not my style my style I have learned is to wait until literally oh look at all that money over there yeah I just have to go over there and get it but you have to wait for those things to happen and then and George as you know then you after you act after you do something you wait for it to play out you don't go jumping in and out all day every day you wait if you buy something that you know is going to work you wait you wait you wait you wait and you if you're right it's going to go up for years at least that's my style find something that will go up for years there'll be UPS there'll be Downs there'll be panics you'll be scared at times but if you could just do nothing for a long time you know I'm lazy I like investing like this I like just waiting till I find something and then I don't have to do anything I wait until some other change comes along yeah what what's incredibly ironic is the amount of discipline required to pick up that money once you see it sitting in the corner not that easy oh yes but you've been waiting and if you've been observing and doing your homework doing your research you will realize Ah that's it yeah you know everybody watching this knows a lot about something whether it's cars or fashion or something they they should be successful investors because they just should wait until they see something that's changing dramatically in cars or fashion then they can do research and act yeah uh but but George it's amazing how many people you can have this conversation with and they say you're night I mean you're right you're right I'm gonna do that now but then they say just give me one hot tip though yeah just one hot tip everybody wants a hot tip everybody wants to be rich this week including me yeah right know but Hot Tips will send you to the poor house that's right n
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