저자: KevinGreen/Tom · 외국인
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엔비디아 최고치 이후 조정은 분기말 리밸런싱·로테이션 성격이며 펀더멘털은 여전히 강하다고 봄. 데이터센터 매출 1분기 전년비 400% 성장, Blackwell·Rubin 등 빠른 신제품 주기로 경쟁사를 따돌리는 중. 다만 빅테크 capex가 신제품 대기로 주춤하거나 경쟁 심화로 마진이 축소되면 리스크가 될 수 있다는 우려 제기. 향후 빅테크 실적과 capex 지속 여부가 관건.
다듬은 글
and Kevin green senior Markus correspondent cuz we're talking Nvidia Kevin ever heard of it because uh this stock uh has been uh taken a hit since hitting those all-time highs just one week ago and I told Kevin uh Hanks earlier on the show that hey maybe it's just down due to the end of the quarter maybe some rebalancing going on uh in this name because it still seems like you know their model hasn't changed and uh you know their trajectory looks pretty good here it's still a heck of a run too though uh Tom you know so at the end of the day we are seeing a little bit of a pullback maybe a tight little rotation that's taking place within the industry as a whole and then obviously with micron's earnings yesterday uh it didn't really shock the street to the upside so uh right now I think we're seeing a little bit of a cooling off period but when you go to the fundamentals of this company it's still very strong I mean when you're looking at the data center revenues when it came to q1 they saw growth of 400% on a year-over-year basis they continue to roll out new product offerings like the the Blackwell announcement and pretty much what four generations in from the h100 so their refresh cycle is really boxing out a lot of their competition as well so I think right now we're just going to wait until we have earning season and it's not so much waiting for what Nvidia reports it's going to be what meta reports it's going to be what Google reports it's going to be what Microsoft reports and if the capex spend continues remains at these particular levels or increases the Market's going to automatically kind of translate that into Topline growth when it comes to Nvidia and I think that's really been the driver of this over the last couple of quarters Kevin when you look at what Nvidia is doing one of the reasons this stock has done so well is because every time they bring out a new chip it really sets the bar even higher and they're currently using the hopper chip they're about to start shipping the black well and what does Jensen Wong do he brings up the Reuben chip that's coming in 2026 he's got one waiting on the horizon that's even stronger they keep raising the bar pulling away for AMD pulling away from any type of competition we keep waiting for competition to show up we keep waiting for valuation and decelerating growth to show up Kevin it's not showing up because they keep raising the bar and then hitting that bar Kev yeah I'm right there with you I mean uh you know it's going to be an odd refresh cycle that we are seeing with Nvidia traditionally they will wait around 2 years to 3 years to kind of refresh these gpus but now we're seeing a refresh cycle when it comes to announcements at around 7 months 8 months which is remarkable but the question goes uh is if they are going to potentially cannibalize some of their business as well and does that make a lot of these bigger names these Mega cap names that are spending this money do they hold off and wait for the next best thing because they are bringing products to Market too early and I think that's a really key question there and then also how long is this capex cycle going going to uh to last here this type of growth rate is not going to last forever and competition will get into the space so margins for pretty much any hardware product that we've seen over the years should also contract as well that's my biggest concern is if we see some of these bigger names starting to pull back and say you know what we're going to wait until Reuben comes out why get Blackwell why get an h200 yeah Kevin uh kg Kevin and I talked about that when they announced that new Reuben chip I'm like what are they doing if I was you know using my Apex spending or a company trying to buy these servers and these chips I'd be like I'm waiting I want the better one right do I need AI built in right away I mean you have to start wondering uh if capex spend starts to pull back a little bit as they wait for the next innovation in the space all right great stuff great breakdown for us that's Kevin green senior markets correspondent here on the network
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