저자: WilliamKeran · 외국인
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Morningstar 애널리스트 William Keran는 애플이 WWDC 이후 기대감 주도로 급등했으나 공정가치 170달러 대비 고평가, 2025년 아이폰 교체주기 실현 전까지 주가 부담이 크다고 봄. 생성형 AI 네트워킹 수혜는 이더넷 점유율 확대로 예상하며 Arista와 Broadcom을 1순위, 마벨을 상대적 저평가 매수 기회로 제시. 엔비디아 인피니밴드 독점은 5년간 잠식될 것으로 전망. 옵션 전략가 Kevin Green은 브로드컴 풋 스프레드 매도와 애플 콜 스프레드 매수를 제시.
다듬은 글
welcome back to morning trade live let's talk some tech and let's do some trading joining me William keran is equity Analyst at Morning Star covering some chips networking companies will great to see you again great to see you too thank you let's talk some apple first uh because this is a stock that had this explosive move to me kind of the Apple move postd developers conference represents this more kind of valuation driven uh section of the AI rally because they still have to deliver right like this wasn't an earnings boom like we got in Nvidia the last like 6 months yeah it was definitely expectations driven now exact we really liked the features that they unveiled at WWDC but to your point it's all about whether they can execute those when the software rolls out this summer and then when the new iPhone lineup rolls out in the fall okay so uh how do we kind of gauge that I mean is this just literally we wait and we see and see how they deliver um how much do you think they're going to kind of sprinkle along the way to give us an idea of what's coming I think we'll see when the version First drops the software this summer so users that have an iPhone 15 pro pro Max will be able to use it but no one else can so we really think these AI features are going to drive a hardware iPhone upgrade cycle in 2025 to get the full use of these features you really need the latest and the greatest Hardware I mean is that going to be like holiday time will we have a product then will we have a reason to refresh our phones by the time Christmas is here well typically they always released the new phone lineup in September so their first fiscal quarter is the December quarter to account for that holiday boom seasonally It's usually the strongest so yes okay uh I've got a a Google phone and uh a couple weeks ago it was giving me the alert to download or update the new Gemini um I use voice uh commands a lot and you know there's some differences um but I mean Apple's wants it to be a major overhaul right like there's going to be a software update but then should the overall experience of like using the iPhone change dramatically do you think is it more going to be like an elective where some people might like to use these you know services or not I think it'll be a little bit of both at least to start Apple really emphasized the personal nature of Apple intelligence the suite of features and so what they want to do is really integrate it into the apps that iPhone users use every day now I think at the start it'll be a bit more gradual users will have to figure out how to use these but you know in 5 years I think it can really overhaul that experience as you said okay uh so as Apple's shares have risen I wonder if it detracts at all from their uh utility among Traders as this kind of safety trade in Tech in a way because oftentimes Apple trades that way and in fact in a few of the moments this year when Nvidia slowed down Apple does really well and sometimes it almost acts as like an anti- beta trade to Big Tech but then now it certainly has been trading more like beta with the valuation run up does that change Apple as an investment at all in the short term does it become more speculative a little bit and you could probably swap out the word beta in that sentence for AI so you know everyone thought that Apple was a lagered when it came to generative AI now this runup over the past month or really two weeks has been because of these generative AI features so I think you'll probably see it go more in line with AI expectations there okay um but you know we continue to see it as overvalued we like it from a fundamental perspective but Shares are at near an all-time high we just see is Rich right now You' got $170 fair value right yep so that's that's a pretty good ways off at this point that's closer to the lows than the highs yeah and it really comes down to these expectations that I talked about for this iPhone upgrade cycle in 2025 we think there will be a good inflection of growth for Apple but if you're buying at these prices you have to assume a cycle similar to what we saw postco 2021 with the 5G iPhones that was high double-digit growth we're forecasting more like high single digigit growth so that's where the disconnect comes in wow okay all right uh so that's going to be a fun one to see uh the rest of the year how that plays out then let's talk some of the networking side of the AI trade there's um first of all tell me about the possibility of how they're going to change the networking technology as uh ethernet might apparently kind of get phased out it's what not a powerful enough tech for what's happening with AI well we actually disagree there so we recently put out a deep dive into the impact of generative AI on networking stocks and the long and short of it is we expect rapid growth for networking from generative AI investment we think it's a critical piece of the infrastructure alongside gpus to run these large language models and these image generating models and we expect ethernet to take share so nvidia's infiniband has a dominant position in really what is a nent market today but we think that advances to ethernet will really chip away at that share over the next 5 years so then who do we play if right now the market thinks that infiniband is going to be dominant but it's not is that like net uh is one that comes to mind I was Cisco in there or who else it's really orisa networks we think will be the primary beneficiary on the equipment side and then broadcom on the chip side so broadcom dominates the market for these ethernet chips orisa dominates the market for these ethernet switch boxes that use broadcom chips okay uh so in the category of uh networking arist net Nvidia in there with the uh infiniband broadcom marll it seems like broadcom Oris to your point you just mentioned more favorites than marll where you see a uh narrower moat that marll uh what's the the kind of trade-off there between a marll and a broadcom marll is smaller it's a little bit more of an upstart compared to a behemoth like broadcom but we still have a mo rating on it and we still like it from a fundamental perspective and relative to the names we talked about Arista Nvidia broadcom we think the AI opportunity has been largely priced in for marll it's a little bit smaller we think it's been a little bit over or underlooked and uh we think it's a good buying opportunity okay uh these stocks by the wrist inets making highs today yeah uh as we speak I mean broadcom's kind of pulled back a little bit over the last few sessions with some of the other uh uh Nvidia trade coming off should they trade a little differently it's interesting that theist is making highs after a week in which a lot of this AI stuff has been in this kind of corrective consolidative mode like does it make sense for them to kind of track their own trajectory a bit it's a little bit difficult to parse out because even as we expect these share losses for NVIDIA networking it's such a small piece of their business relative to gpus so really we expect them to move in tandem you know AI bullishness has really started to impact to risk the stock to your point but again on a valuation level even even as we have these bullish expectations we find it difficult to justify the valuations today because again all-time highs and we think patient investors can wait for pullbacks to uh Buy in all right good stuff uh William excellent explanation appreciate it very much thank you Oliver really job laying out the landscape for us here and some of the themes that go a little under discussed in the networking side of the AI trade let's go to Chicago Kevin green is taking a look at oh wait kg is in Colorado what's up kg uh let's trade some broadcom first because I know you got a way to take advantage of the general strength in broadcom yeah definitely especially if you're looking at that Gap that we saw in June uh uh in uh June on June 13th here if you do believe that the stock could continue to move to the upside here and or uh kind of remain at these current levels you could actually look at selling a put spread here and looking at that put spread looking at trying to sell the 1450 put and then buying the 1400 put now these are pretty far out of the money at this point in time you could do that for a credit of about $4.25 Max gain on that trade would be the credit receive $425 Max loss would be $457 here and if you're looking at the break even point it would be $1,445 75 so once again kind of trying to capitalize on the fact that broadcom continues to see positive flows and being able to hold up to some of these um technical levels that we've seen over the last couple of trading sessions here okay all right so sell the downside as opposed to buying the upside you think that's just kind of generally a good approach when they've been ripping and showing a little bit of weakness I mean some of that selling kind of opens up the opportunity to capitalize on a little bit of a v pickup right exactly which is why that that strike price the 1450 here is really kind of trying to pinpoint the lower end of that Gap so you're kind of betting on the fact that maybe that Gap does not get filled at this point in time you still have about two weeks for this trade to really pan out here and then you also have time Decay on your side when you're kind of looking at an upside move for broadcom there's still a significant callide skew so it gets a little bit expensive so trying to still have some upside potential or still have some uh bullish thesis on the stock but also trying to uh take advantage of time Decay is really the the niche of this particular trade strategy right uh okay let's talk some apple here all right so you're selling the downside put spread in broadcom apple you're going a little bit more aggressive though uh so it kind of uh go the opposite way of uh their their view here which is that Apple's overvalued uh tell me about the approach well the approach is really on the on the fact that we do have the second half of this year and and generally we tend to see portfolio managers starting to rotate their money out of stocks that may have not performed as well as their peers now Apple's only performed at around 15% year to dat 15 15 and a half% year to date so it still could have actually some upside to go here and maybe those positive flows are going to be able to to drive it higher so kind of looking at a bull call spread here buying the 2115 uh call selling the 220 call doing this for the July 12th expiration doing this for a de debit of about $2 here Max gain would be the difference between the spread which is a $5 spread and the debit that's paid Max gain is going to be $300 Max loss would be the debit paid for this particular spread here so that's going to be $200 break even at $217 you will need a move to the upside in order for this to be profitable Oliver but your hope is that the stock is going to be above $220 at the time of expiration in order to try to get out of this trade and you could liquidate it beforehand uh if there's a market available but once again you're going to need to have a positive movement on the stock in order to try to uh capitalize and really profit off this trade okay pretty bullish uh I like it getting a little aggressive going for the upside and Apple appreciate it Kevin green thank you very much
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