저자: GeorgeEllis · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어는 데이터 분석 기업에서 AI 운영체제(AIP·온톨로지)로 전환 중이며, 2분기 매출 93% 성장, 상업 매출 149% 성장, 영업이익률 62%, 엔비디아·Nebius와 파트너십으로 실적과 성장성이 뛰어나다. 다만 forward PER 약 124배로 밸류에이션 부담이 크고 성장 지속성이 관건이다. 기술적으로는 중기 상승 추세이며 $213 전고점 돌파 여부가 중요하고, 11월 2일 실적발표가 다음 시험대다.
다듬은 글
So, welcome back to the tech corner. I'm George Ellis, a senior market analyst for Schwab. In this week's edition, we'll be back to Palantir Technologies. So, Palantir Technologies is an enterprise software company that specializes in transforming large volumes of complex data into operational solutions.
The company initially created its software for US intelligence and defense agencies, but quickly expanded into the commercial sector. Palantir's core software platforms include Gotham, which is primarily used by defense and intelligence agencies, Foundry, which integrates data and business operations across organizations, and Apollo, which manages secure software deployments in the cloud, on- premises, and in highly restricted environments.
Finally, AIP, or the so-called artificial intelligence platform, connects large language models and AI agents to an organization's proprietary data and operating systems. The main news today—Palantir is transforming from a data analytics company into an operating system for corporate and sovereign artificial intelligence.
In terms of competition, Palantir competes with companies in the areas of enterprise software, cloud data, and artificial intelligence. For example, Snowflake competes in the enterprise data platform market. Oracle, IBM, and Microsoft compete in the areas of enterprise software, databases, and artificial intelligence.
And cloud providers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are increasingly offering similar AI and data management capabilities. Finally, companies like OpenAI and Anthropic can compete at certain levels of AI applications. Palantir is somewhat different from other AI model developers. Their core business is not creating a basic AI model.
They connect models to the organization's real data, authorize access rights and business processes so that artificial intelligence can make decisions and operate in a controlled environment. Palantir's biggest competitive advantage is what they call ontology . In simple terms, an ontology creates a digital representation of an organization's real-world operations.
Instead of AI simply answering questions, Palantir can connect it to objects such as inventories, factories, aircraft, supply chains, customers, or even military assets. This allows artificial intelligence to move from generating information to actually helping manage an organization. Palantir is also model-independent.
Customers can use models from companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or even from open source developers without completely rebuilding their data architecture. This becomes especially important as governments and corporations increasingly seek to have sovereign AI, that is, to retain control over their data models and computing infrastructure.
Back on August 3 of this year, Palantir reported its second quarter results, demonstrating another significant acceleration in growth. Revenue reached approximately 1.94 billion, up 93% year-over- year and 19% quarter- over- quarter. Revenue in the US was a real breakthrough, growing by 115 % to $1.57 billion, and commercial revenue increased by 149% to $764 million.
Revenue from the US government rose 90% to $89 million, while adjusted free cash flow also improved to $1.22 billion. This provides an adjusted free cash flow margin of around 63%. Finally, the company forecasts a 134% increase in commercial revenue in the US for the year. So, Palantir's commercial direction is now growing even faster than the government business that originally defined the company's activities.
Additionally, with regard to recent developments in AI, the next phase of Palantir's strategy increasingly focuses on sovereign artificial intelligence. In September, Palantir expanded its partnership with Nvidia. Nvidia is now using Palantir Foundry and AIP technologies in its own supply chain, combining Palantir software with Nvidia AI models to identify constraints and improve operational decisions.
Palantir has also partnered with Nebius, naming it a priority partner in the field of sovereign AI infrastructure. This gives Palantir customers another way to run AI models while maintaining control over their own computing data and models within the company. Ultimately, Palantir seeks to increasingly control the AI software and operating environment, regardless of which model or computing infrastructure the client chooses.
Now let's look at other positive aspects of Palantir. First, as I mentioned, Q2 2026 results set new records with revenue growth of 93% year- over-year, as well as a net revenue retention rate of 157%. The company also closed 220 deals worth at least $1 million, driven by a strong commercial segment in the US.
Management also raised its annual forecast and expects further acceleration in sales and earnings growth in 2027. The company's AI approach and partnerships with Nvidia and Nebius are driving large contracts and customer retention because it allows customers to control and customize their AI models while maintaining strict data privacy and operational security.
Palantir also holds over $9 billion in cash with virtually no debt, which helps the business expand and provides significant financial flexibility. Not only is revenue growth strong, the second quarter also showed $1.22 billion in operating cash flow and an operating margin of 62%. Therefore, this combination of extremely high revenue growth and margin expansion is atypical even for large software companies.
Now another positive point is diversification. Palantir is no longer primarily a government contractor . Its software is increasingly being implemented in many industries, such as manufacturing, aviation, healthcare, insurance , financial services, and supply chains. Now, despite these positive points, let's also consider some concerns.
The biggest concern for Palantir remains valuation. The company's market capitalization is approaching $480 billion, and its projected earnings per share are approximately $162. That puts the stock at about 124 times forward earnings, compared to other application software peers at about 22. Palantir also trades at about 78 times forward earnings.
These are extremely high valuation multipliers. The argument in favor of such a valuation is that Palantir is also showing extraordinary growth. Revenue growth is forecast at approximately 63%, and EBITDA growth is estimated at approximately 89%. So the valuation debate is n't about whether Palantir is growing fast .
This is obviously true. The question is whether the company can sustain growth rates close to these long enough to justify a multiple that already takes into account years of exceptional performance. Another concern is that income growth is increasingly concentrated in the United States. International commercial adoption has not accelerated at the same extraordinary pace as in the US.
Finally, competition will remain intense as cloud providers, enterprise software developers, and AI modelers create increasingly complex enterprise AI products. And now is the moment when we look at the technical picture for Palantir. As we can see, Palantir's condition has improved significantly since the announcement of financial results in early August.
The stock is trading around $199 and recently hit a new 52- week high near $213. After spending most of the first half of the year in a corrective move, Palantir rallied sharply after that August report and returned to a strong medium-term uptrend. The stock is trading above its rising 50-day moving average, as well as its major long-term averages—the 100-day and 200-day.
This confirms the overall bullish trend for Palantir. In terms of momentum, the daily RSI is around 61. This is a positive momentum indicator, but importantly, it remains below the traditional overbought threshold of 70 points. The daily MACD is also positive and is around 43, indicating constructive short-term momentum.
The weekly chart also confirms the presence of a stronger medium-term structure. The weekly RSI is around 63, which remains positive without technical overbought conditions, and the weekly MACD is strongly positive— around plus 5.7. So, both the daily and weekly momentum indicators are now moving in the same direction.
The first important support zone is around $183, which is close to the rising 50- day moving average, or, if you prefer, the 10-week average. Below this level, the $155 to $157 zone represents more significant medium-term support. Therefore, a confident breakout above this level will once again pave the way for the stock to open higher.
So, to summarize, the technical picture can be described as " bullish" in the medium term with positive momentum , but it is approaching an important test of previous highs. So, to summarize, Palantir has evolved significantly since the public data analytics company that investors knew a few years ago.
Today, the company is increasingly positioning itself as an operating system for application-based and sovereign artificial intelligence. Its main advantage is not necessarily in creating the best AI model in the world. It involves connecting AI models to sensitive data and real-world operations, where companies and governments can use them.
This strategy is delivering extraordinary financial results , and partnerships with Nvidia and Nebas are expanding Palantir’s capabilities in commercial AI and sovereign infrastructure. Fundamentally, the company continues to perform at an exceptional level. The problem, however, is that the stock price may already reflect an extraordinary level of future success.
As the stock approaches previous highs around $213, this area becomes an important test ahead of the next earnings report on Nov. 2. Well, that's all for this week's edition of Tech Corner. Please don't forget to like and subscribe to Schwab Network. I am George Sellis. See you here next week.
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