저자: TomWhite/KevinHinks · 외국인
요약 보기
골드만삭스가 팔란티어 투자의견을 중립에서 매수로 상향하고 목표가 230달러 제시. 정부 AI·기업 AI 확산 성장성을 긍정 평가. 패널들은 PER 약 100배 밸류에이션 부담과 실적 발표(11월 2일) 앞둔 주가 기대치를 논쟁. Kevin은 10월 16일 만기 210/212.5 베어콜 스프레드(약 0.5달러 크레딧), Tom은 10월 30일 만기 200/215/220 브로큰 버터플라이(약 4.3달러 디빗)를 예시로 제시.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to Fast Money on Schwab Network. Goldman Sachs is becoming optimistic about Palantir. This Wall Street heavyweight upgrades the stock rating from “ neutral” to “ buy.” The new price target is $230, implying an upside of about 18% from yesterday's closing levels. Goldman sees opportunities for a period of outpacing growth through 2027 after this year's lows, noting: "We believe enterprises are in the early stages of implementing AI into their own data to extend existing competitive advantage." End of quote.
And GS expects certain industries to become new opportunities for Palantir. Keep in mind that Palantir shares are up less than 10% year-to-date, but have outperformed over the past few months. Well, time for some controversy over that name. For this, congratulations to our co-hosts Tom White and Kevin Hinks.
Time for bulls vs. bears. So guys, before we move on to your example, Jason, I need to get your thoughts on Palantir. Kevin, I'll start with you. Your opinion. Yes, Goldman published a great note, raising the rating from “neutral” to “ buy.” Target price $230. This is about 18% higher than now. They predict growth until 2027.
Partnership with Nvidia. The long-term prospects look very positive. That's a pretty positive note from Goldman Sachs, but you know, their move into sovereign AI infrastructure and open source integration sets them apart from Anthropic and OpenAI. So that's a bit of a different story. Palantir, Tom and I have already talked about this on the show, covering these stocks.
They are unique. They do unique things that set them apart from other AI providers. So yes, many analysts are now trying to catch up with the market as the company approaches new all-time highs. So, a little late, but still an optimistic note , Dayano. What do you think, Tom, about Palantir? Well, quickly before we move on to Palantir: markets are bouncing off the lows.
Crude oil only fell 3%, so it rose about 2%. President Trump has made several comments that he is not going to bomb Iran before the midterm elections, and is also holding productive talks with Iran. So let's see what comes of this. But if you look at Palantir and its growth rate last quarter: revenue grew 93% year-over-year, and commercial growth was 149% year-over- year.
And even the public sector, where they are expanding their presence, right? The public sector grew by 90% year-on-year last quarter. Problem. So, I explained it to you , right? Let's have a debate between bulls and bears on Palantir, as the forward P/E ratio approaches 100. This is the main problem it has always had .
Today, the shares reached 202.04, but have retreated slightly after the rating upgrade. But yes, there is growth. It simply has to be sustainable to justify such a market valuation. An apt observation about the change in direction and shaky ground underfoot due to the pressures we are seeing on Wall Street.
We'll see if things turn in the bulls' favor. But let's move on to an example of a deal specifically for Palantir. Kevin, let's start with your approach. Yes, you know, this is a company that releases its earnings report on November 2nd. Let's start the discussion. How much positive news is already embedded in a stock that has skyrocketed from $125 to over $200 and is now trading just below $198?
How much positive has already been taken into account? Tom mentioned a P/E of 100, but the residual income is about $4.9 billion . So, the numbers are strong, but again , Diana, what's in the stock price? So I was looking for something short-term before the earnings report, only until October 16th, Tom.
Their all-time high is around $207. I'm selling verticals 210-212.5 for half a dollar. It's currently trading around 40 cents as the stock has retreated, Tom. So, maybe it's worth lowering these strikes a little . I held them at $10 above the stock price. And I found , Tom, that the best proposition is to do something with lower execution costs.
I chose a width of only $2.5 because at a width of $5 the premium dropped sharply. So I'm adjusting the strikes, looking at a short call above the market, Tom, to get ahead of the earnings report. So, let's take a look at Kevin's example deal. Monthly option for October 16. So, there are only 8 days left until expiration.
You have little time here. He sells a call option with a strike of 210 and buys a call option with a strike of 212.5. Only a short vertical line with a width of 2.5 dollars is for growth. Well, it's out of the money, above that all-time high, which is a little over 207, as Kevin mentioned. If you get a 50 cent loan, as he mentioned, the stock has rolled back from the session high.
So , it's a little lower than that figure. But if you get a 50 cent loan, you have $2 at risk, $200 at risk to make just $50. I think the main thing is that you're giving yourself a better chance of success. So, these are the trade-offs that Kevin and I always talk about. There is an 82% chance that this short 210 strike will be out of the money at expiration, which is what is required for such a strategy; in this example, you want the stock to stay below 210.
You get a credit of $0.50 and keep that $50 for the spread if the price stays below the breakeven level of 210.50. So yes, higher probabilities of success mean less credit you get on these short neutral or " bearish" out-of- the-money calls in examples like this. So, he provides himself with a better probability of success with the expectation that the stock will remain below the all-time highs and below the 210 short strike in this neutral or "bearish" short call vertical.
Kevin , in my example I chose a slightly more directional trade; if this analyst is to be believed , it gives some exposure to growth. I chose the monthly option on October 30th. So, they expire in 22 days, Kevin. This way, I buy myself a little more time. Now, why did I choose this particular strike or this series of options?
Well, they report earnings on November 2nd. So, you avoid the reporting period while still maintaining exposure to growth ahead of this event. But on October 30th, we buy an unbalanced or " broken" butterfly . We buy one call option with a strike price of 200, which is slightly out of the money. We sell two call options with a strike of 215 and buy one call option at 220.
So you play the raise: buy one call at 200, sell two at 215, buy one at 220, paying about 4.30 debit. It is now trading closer to four dollars as shares have declined. This reduces its price. If you pay this debit at 4.30, that would be your risk— $430 on the spread. This raises your breakeven point to 204.30.
Earlier today during the session we were at about this breakeven level . But Kevin, the compensation for part of the cost in this example of a bullish trade where you need an exit on the upside peaks around strike 215 where you sold two options, but even above 220 it gives more than double the profit.
So, a long vertical call spread of $15, a short vertical call spread of $5. Spending about $4.30 or maybe a little less since the stock has dropped, but it's a chance, Tom. If you pay $4 with something, it can go up to $15. That's more than tripling, Tom. So the savings you get from selling that vertical call spread of 215-220 reduces the net debit.
This also lowers the break-even point on this deal. So yes, it's from the "butterfly" family, but since you made it long by 15 and short by 5, you're still in profit on the upside, Tom. Yes. Well, that's all, actually . Yes, in my case, movement is really necessary. Kevin's option, on the other hand, is a short vertical call spread: if the stock is flat, falling, or even rising, I can make a profit, but Kevin has a little more risk than potential reward, Diana.
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