저자: TomWhite · 외국인
요약 보기
3분기 실적시즌 시작으로 EPS 성장률 약30% 전망이며 금융주 실적이 분위기를 좌우할 것으로 봄. 10월 CPI가 연준 금리 인상 기대를 좌우하며, 국채 10년물 금리는 5.36%대 고점에서 5.25%대로 안정. 러-우 에너지 휴전 후 유가 변동성과 중동 긴장이 증시 최대 변수로 제시. 소프트웨어주는 AI 수익화로 반등했으나 평가 부담과 소진 우려, 세일즈포스는 BofA 상향으로 수혜 전망.
다듬은 글
And now, to help us get ready for today's events, we're joined by Tom White, of course, the Schwab Network columnist. Tom , let's start with how to evaluate the markets this week. Of course, it's a new trading week, there's a lot to do, and we're fully entering reporting season. So , with all this added volatility, what are you watching this week?
Yes, we are finally back into reporting season and I think it will be good for the markets as the expected growth rate should be around 30%. This will be the fourth consecutive quarter with earnings growth of over 25%. Now we have some sectors that distort this figure in some way. Energy will really be on the rise, you know, compared to other sectors.
It will grow exponentially, but financial companies will report first tomorrow morning: JP Morgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and their numbers are expected to be a little weaker than expected. It will be difficult to compare them to last year, but you will have to start looking at the financial sector.
Will they set the tone? Will they exceed earnings expectations to somehow prepare us? We had some good gains last week, Jenny, and I think that was an indication that we may have weathered a September where we saw some instability and volatility. But we're entering October, which is historically a pretty strong month for stocks.
Entering the reporting season, I think, will be a key factor. This week we have inflation data: CPI on Wednesday, CPI on Thursday. This will likely set the tone for what concerns the Fed's monetary policy. Expectations for an interest rate hike in October dropped sharply a couple of weeks later . Last Monday they exceeded 70%.
By the end of the week, they had fallen below 20%. So, we don't expect any surprises there, but these inflation figures could add volatility to the markets. But I think everything will focus on geopolitical tensions and the price of crude oil. We are seeing a jump in price , as you mentioned today. Yields have stabilized below those 24-year highs we hit last week, above 5.36%.
Now we are back to around 5.25%. So, stabilizing yields will definitely help the markets overall, but I think this week will be focused on earnings and inflation data, which could be a driving force for stocks. Okay, and you mentioned energy, as well as geopolitical risks. Oil prices, of course, turned upward after reports of an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine emerged.
So how could this long-term deal affect the markets, because it was a pretty significant burden that we, again, seemed to ignore over the last year, especially given that energy prices remained high. Yes, and you mentioned that if this potential ceasefire were to last at all, Zelensky immediately said: hey, they already violated the ceasefire a few hours after the announcement.
President Trump announced an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine. You know, they're trying to do something. Diesel fuel prices are a major factor driven by ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure between Ukraine and Russia. This is causing great concern in stock markets, as diesel fuel plays a key role in global logistics, but President Trump has declared that from now on there is an energy truce in the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Both sides agreed. Don't violate it, Trump said on social media on Sunday. After that, oil fell below $90 per barrel, and then jumped back up. We're at about $93 a barrel after Ukrainian President Zelensky said he welcomed the ceasefire but warned on Monday that Moscow should do the same, but they've already broken it.
And this is on top of the attacks we saw over the weekend at Saudi airports. 12 people died. This raises concerns for the future. This morning, a message came from an Iranian news agency saying they are ready to work with Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni Houthis to find a solution. It's a bit strange to hear this from them when they are actually financially supporting the Houthis in Yemen.
So, let 's wait and see how this develops. But these are precisely the details and volatility that arise in the market due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Will it disappear? Well, it would be great for the stock markets if that all went away. But you see a correlation between higher energy prices and volatility in the stock market.
I hope we can overcome some of these geopolitical tensions, maybe these truces or a reduction in tensions in the Middle East can have a negative impact on the price of oil, because I think that's what's creating the main pressure right now. We observed a stabilization of profitability. So, we've covered this part of the way.
But I think the crude oil situation will either be a drag or a driver for stocks along with the earnings we are expecting now. So I think that's the biggest problem and we need positive comments about the conflict in the Middle East or in Ukraine and Russia. Okay, now let's move on to stocks as we see Microsoft and Palantir ratings downgraded after what has been a pretty significant rise for both companies since the beginning of the year.
So, do these decisions signal valuation concerns, or are we starting to see cracks in the broader software sector ? Yes, I think that's probably the main thing. Last week, we saw a big rise in software company stocks. IGV rose almost 4% last week. So, we've seen this resurgence, right? Microsoft has risen more than 53% from its June lows, just below record highs.
Palantir hit a record high on Friday. Closed at a record high. So, we've seen this resurgence of interest in software, where maybe AI will really benefit these companies. Microsoft's recent earnings have been really good because they're starting to monetize AI, right? The number of Copilot users has increased by 10 million .
You saw double-digit growth in all segments of their business. So yes, AI is playing a positive role for some of these software companies. So I think it's more of a matter of evaluation. We've seen the resurgence of Snowflake and some other names, Microsoft, Palantir, as we mentioned. Adobe received a rating downgrade from Wells Fargo today.
It has also risen slightly from recent lows. So yes, we may be starting to approach exhaustion levels on this software stock rebound . And in a few weeks we'll see earnings reports from many of these companies, and that will probably give us more clarity. But I think this is more of a reaction to the recent price action of many of these stocks , rather than the fundamental story that has been improving in the sector over the past few months.
Okay, continuing the conversation about software in general, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said that these advanced AI systems need stronger security safeguards, which, I mean, is not a surprise if you follow any public perception and just the events with some of these companies. But could these increased controls become a hindrance for companies, given that mass adoption of AI is necessary to meet their growth expectations?
Yes, and I think it will all come down to a debate between open and closed models in the future. We're talking about this, you know, the CEO of Anthropic came out recently, and he, along with others in the industry, like the CEO of OpenAI, basically said, "Hey, you know what? There are some concerns for the future, but I think at this point it's the responsibility of the companies themselves." And I think that's what Nadella laid out this weekend.
He actually talks about the "risks of AI." He urges these companies to hit the emergency brake. So if you're developing these advanced models, maybe you should have restrictions and the ability to turn them off. But some of his comments indicate that we don't fully understand superintelligent systems, so more oversight is needed now.
You also mentioned Microsoft's downgrade. You know, I think if we start considering this, the issue will arise during the midterm elections as well. Also, where, you know, people resist the development of AI. On the other hand, you've seen Alex Karp at Palantir, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg at Meta Platforms, saying, "Hey , we need to keep this progress going." But I don't think having fuses is necessarily a negative thing.
The initial reports were that some Chinese models, those open models, were becoming more advanced, catching up with a lot of American technology and AI. And they will be cheaper. I think this will be a cause for concern, a bigger problem in the future. For example, who uses these models based in China?
How much cheaper are they? And will the US government have to impose restrictions and regulations on some of these open models from China? But yeah, it's no surprise that we're hearing more rhetoric from these CEOs about us needing additional safeguards in the future. And you can still develop technology at the right pace, Jenny, without having to open everything up and face major cybersecurity incidents, hacker attacks, and things like that.
Okay, and of course, not everything in the software sector is in decline today. Salesforce actually gets a double ranking boost. BofA now argues that AI could deepen businesses' dependence on large software platforms. As we know, Salesforce was not considered one of these winners, unlike Adobe, which was perceived more as an object of AI influence than as its driver.
So, with this Salesforce prediction, does it challenge fears that AI will disrupt these more traditional companies? I don't know if this is enough to say for sure , but it gets the idea into circulation. Yeah, and I think that brings us back to the narrative we were discussing earlier: some of these software companies will be able to use AI to improve productivity, right?
They may have to start cutting staff, but CRM, Salesforce, has always been a company that just buys other firms. They make them profitable really, well, fast. But this analyst stated that large enterprises are unlikely to replace the platforms on which their business logic, data, workflows and compliance systems are based.
On the contrary, AI should only increase dependence on these platforms. Think about it: if you're, say, an industrial, commodities, or technology company, you might simply not have the resources in your own systems, so you'd still need companies like CRM that have comprehensive enterprise business management platforms to outsource it rather than building something yourself.
So, this could make these companies with their AI implementations more valuable at this stage . And this will allow for cross-selling, whether in the field of cybersecurity, in the corporate segment of their business, or in work processes within companies. So it's no surprise that we're starting to see this narrative shift a bit .
Remember that “SASpocalypse” in early 2026, when many software companies were seriously hurt by falling stocks because everyone thought, “Hey, all these companies can develop their own enterprise platforms and not rely on giants like Salesforce.” But it's starting to become true that "hey, these companies can actually help you monetize AI better with less cost, and you can cross-sell into the tech sector right now." So, as you can see, it's not surprising.
The BofA analyst may have been a little late with the rating upgrade , but it's a double upgrade. You know, it gives a little boost to CRM. It's been a while since I heard the term "SASpocalypse." It's good that you mentioned this, because it was only a few months ago, but it seems like we're too quick to forget all the software pain points of the last year or so.
But thank you to Tom White for providing such in-depth analysis on individual stocks, as well as, of course, broader market trends.
Comments 0