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S&P500과 기술주 고PE 종목이 하락하는 가운데, 재닛 옐런의 인터뷰(바이든 4조 달러 부양책 관련 금리 소폭 상승 가능성 언급)가 시장 하락 직후 나와 매도를 부추겼다고 주장. 진행자는 S&P500 10~25% 조정 가능성과 그 뒤 반등을 전망하며, 인플레이션 데이터 전환점을 기준으로 9~10월경 기술주 반등을 예상. 미국 10년물 금리와 비트코인의 상관관계를 근거로 제시하나, 이는 과거 추세 설명에 가까움. 유료 강좌 홍보 포함.
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hey folks we are within 30 hours of that amazing 39 off coupon code linked down below expiring tomorrow cinco de mayo so check out that program all of the programs which you can bundle up linked down below look forward to having you and folks here we go okay i have to say i i really wonder if the suits and the weenie babies caught wind of this janet yellen interview before the rest of us in the public hot wind have been okay because the market is selling off and about an hour and a half after the market started selling off actually probably two hours after the market started selling off all of a sudden we hear about all these comments that secretary yellen had about rates and some other commentary which we're gonna break down here and it's really really interesting that the market somehow sells off a couple hours before those comments come out oh but the market sufficient and the game's not rigged at all geez folks it's a mess let's talk about what's going on okay first of all yesterday if you've been watching the market open and closed live streams i mentioned while the s p was green i'm like folks i'm waiting for a big sell-off a correction in the s p 500 to start buying the dip on my texts that's what that's because it's based on this belief that i believe right now we're obviously we've been seeing a sell-off in tech and high pe we know that we've seen that sell-off we have also seen a rotation continue into cyclicals recovery stocks industrials and this is why you have tech selling off especially after great earnings while at the same time the s p has been on an uptrend because of that rotation in these other sectors and so my belief is for us to really hit a bottom of this market like peak fear peak sell-off mode we really needed and i said this yesterday we need the s p 500 to sell off and i mean like sell off like 10 20 25 percent correction pull this s p back down 3 200 3 400 3 500 3 700 certainly down to these levels right pull it down uh and then when when the broad market consolidates and correlates like when everything is going down together potentially that's when we get the reversion out of shorts puts and selling see when you have some sectors selling down high pe and tech and others going up that just means at some point the other sectors are going to get really stretchy valuations because even though it may not seem like it recovery stocks to make this simple think about like macy's macy's even though it may sound crazy it is it is rubber band attached to tesla okay that sounds insane like they have nothing to do with each other right yes they do they are uh opportunity cost choices the more you invest in macy's is the less you invest in tesla and when macy's gets to a ridiculous premium and tesla sells off you start looking going maybe i should sell some macy's and buy some tesla okay this is why they're rubber banded together so here's what happens and this is why i made this conclusion yesterday you can't have macy's go to the moon and tesla fall without at some point macy's rubber banding down and i think that rubber banding down could lead the entire market to slingshot a little lower then we could potentially see okay now we're getting to that level again where we get that minor correction i don't think it's gonna be massive i don't think it's gonna be correction level of uh march 2020 but we've kind of already been seeing this obviously start in tech and and these high multiples i don't think they have far to go another 10 totally reasonable could happen uh the others the industrials the recoveries you know they could see the 20 25 30 sell-off now you get this this pull down now you see everything at a lower level ideally and we we can't time this this is difficult right so this is why it's like okay like you want to kind of nibble into some of these dips never squander a good red day but anyway you get to uh you get to these these potential lows that we might see no guarantees that we will but this is just a belief that i have what happens then well at some point prices get to levels where the people who are winning printing attendees with shorts puts and selling they come back in and as soon as the shorts close cover and the puts sell and close you know get rid of their puts and uh the people who are selling buying buying again especially the big institutions and the hedges that's when we see that turn back up now i think that turn back up aligns with when we see the inflection point in inflation data i'm not going to re-litigate this because we've talked about this many times on the channel before i you know that i believe we get the inflection point in inflation data we're going to go through crap bad for the next couple months but sometime between now and uh the you know september october period we're gonna see that that ramp we're gonna see that bottom and that ramp again and this is when when we see that rebalancing again of of tech high multiple and everything move on to the upside kathy would be a hero again instead of an arc fund that you just sell and dump because nobody cares about ark when it's down right classic i mean the outflows at arc have been pretty substantial i mean arc has not been gaining money for like the past month it's been gaining money but losing money and it's been averaging out to zero for about the last month anyway so what did yelen say and uh what what am i kind of thinking here so first of all i want to make a quick clarification when remember when in february uh end of february beginning of march you had a lot of weenie babies start selling buying puts and shorting okay they're they're actually doing well right now in fairness not not in all cases nothing i mean there are a lot of socks that have not hit the bottoms that we've seen in march but in some cases those are actually doing very well right now credit to them short term okay credit to that short term they win fine unfortunately that actually reiterates shorting that reiterates buying puts and that reiterates selling but at some point that cycle stops because prices get to a point where they're just juicy again and you gotta buy them so at some point that cycle stops now what did uh janet yellen just say and and how does this enter this whole mix of the selling that we're seeing today well here's what janet yellen said today so janet yellen was and it's this the context is very important here okay this is going to get misquoted all day on youtube today so and probably media so be aware of this okay janet yellen was talking in context of joe biden's four trillion dollar stimulus plan she believes that joe biden's plan could cause a very modest increase in interest rates and that there's this reallocation happening in the market right now but that joe biden's plan are investments that our economy needs right now to be quote competitive and productive she says that with these investments our economy should grow faster because of these investments and she believes that we saw what happened after the trump tax cuts and in her opinion we didn't see massive boosts to investment and therefore higher taxes on high income individuals not a big deal give the middle class tax cuts that's better for growth now there are a lot of arguments especially coming from wealthier folks that that is fugazi nonsense that the more you tax the more you hurt innovation the more you hurt the funding of entrepreneurs the more you hurt the funding of venture capital the more you hurt the funding and investment in real estate then the more especially with this 1031 rule you cater investors mindsets towards investing in single-family real estate instead of big multi-family which just makes it harder to buy a freaking house which is already impossible these days okay it just worsens the housing crisis so we got some big issues but here was the bombshell so at this event that was recorded yesterday and the details released on now janet yellen goes on to say quote it may be that interest rates will have to rise a little bit to make sure the economy doesn't overheat end quote following joe biden's 4 trillion stimulus plan so janet yellen is planting the seed here contradicting mr j pal planting the seed that we might have to raise rates soon to make sure things don't overheat because uh you know we're already seeing some froth in the market which j-pal did say there's some froth on the market and you did already see the dallas fed president kind of go yeah we should start tapering sooner rather than later because things are getting ridiculous out here it's not good when you start seeing a lack of consistency amongst the fed and in the treasury department different departments obviously different different you know one's supposed to be independent of the government one is part of the government whatever but it's not good when you see that lack of consistency because all it does is reiterate what the shorts and the hedges are saying which is we think uh jerome's gonna have to raise rates sooner than um people expect janet yellen's just reiterating that leading to a sell-off today thanks janet yellen and thank you to whomever leaked it to all the hedgies before us normal folk heard about it y'all suck this is why people say the markets are rigged but whatever whatever we know the weenie baby game we we still have some diamonds left on our hands some some have been some have evaporated in the dip bind but that's okay they'll they'll grow back eventually right jimmy neutron's microwave crap turns into diamonds at some point anyway she goes on to say that the greatest threat to our economic recovery and long-term economic prospects is not a marginally higher tax rate for large corporations or the top one percent but it's a lack of support for america's workers and families and she says that we have a we've gone way too long allowing long-term problems to fester including the fact that our taxation system doesn't audit enough people leading to the potential of seven trillion dollars in uncollected taxes in over a decade this is part of biden's big movement to get a lot more audits going to make sure they collect more and more taxes janet yellen says marginal tax rates are much less powerful in influencing growth than many thought little evidence of a burst of investment after the trump tax cuts talked about this okay she did say she does expect interest rates to remain low or us to remain in the low interest rate environment quote for some time but need to make sure deficits remain manageable okay well maintaining manageable deficits means not spending as much so she's kind of also beating up on on biden here kind of like pulling in the reins a little bit going but fine four trillion okay hey janet's printing now okay well she's working with j-pal on the printer and janet's like well that printer's running a little hot biden pull it back a little okay just a little bit okay it's ridiculous this mark gets madness so in case you're wondering why the market's all poopy doopy today thank janet yellen and thank the people who leaked all this crap before and uh thank more fugazi around obviously the potential for inflation although i will say we had a softer manufacturing data come out this morning which has led to the 10-year to rotate to the downside a little bit any time we see less overheating in uh actual statistics that come out which friday's unemployment number data is going to be huge i will be live streaming that at 5 30 a.m pacific time not looking forward to it but i will be doing it because we have to but anyway we are seeing this rotation down uh in the 10-year which tends to not bode well for bitcoin prices ethereum and uh doge not correlated but although we did have a little bit of a peak here after janet yellen's commentary was released so you did see this fall throughout the day here as we got weaker than expected data in some cases but we did see a little bit of a spike here after janet yellen's commentary so you are seeing this remember the 10-year treasury yield chart is your graph of human emotion relating to what people's inflation expectations are okay this is your inflation expectation chart basically uh bitcoin tends to trade with this chart in fact here we'll just we'll plop it on right now uh it's not perfect but it's it's pretty pretty good hold on let's edit the chart and let's make it uh let's normalize this to a factor of 100 it gets a little easier to look at and then you do year to date here boom look at that you just tend to see the ups and the downs kind of moving together you had very good correlation at the start of the year treasuries run bitcoin runs treasuries run bitcoin runs uh treasuries fall minus you got to take out the coinbase pump here if you take out the coin based pump you really see that that sort of decline with the treasuries here uh and then you're seeing that same sort of bumpiness over here as we're trying to decide which way treasuries are going so you do have that some you know it's a little loose but you do see a lot of that tracking happening here so anyway there you go if you find any of this information helpful check out those amazing courses link down below for perspectiv being here use that coupon code before it expires tomorrow and folks we'll see in the next video you
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