The Real Estate Crisis is Worsening | Collapse in 2023.

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주택가격이 미국·캐나다·스웨덴·한국 등에서 하락 중이며 모기지 금리 급등(6%대)이 원인이라고 주장. 금리 고점 유지 시 주택시장 피해가 영구적일 수 있고, 2023년 3월경 공포 확산과 전년대비 하락이 본격화될 것으로 예상. 연준 금리 인하는 2023년 중반 가능성을 낮게 봄. 부동산 매수 기회는 2023~2024년에 올 것으로 제시하며 자신의 부동산 스타트업 투자 유치를 홍보.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. hey everyone it's me kevin i've got my real estate mic flag over here because we gotta talk some housing today there's some news and some three really important things that we got to talk about i'm coming from this little fancy box phone booth thing at the airport because i'm flying back from vegas i won in poker yesterday and i'm really happy about that thanks jeremy anyway okay so let's go ahead and get into some of the things here so first just across the board right we know that home price is already falling and the united states home prices have fallen about five and a half percent since march it's no different in other countries canadian home prices are down for their sixth straight month down 7.4 percent from their peak in february which was just a month before our peak swedish home prices are down 11 in stockholm for example since march and you're even seeing fears now that the uk housing market is going to experience a similar sort of decline with consumer confidence turning negative solely because of fears that in the short term housing is going to drag the entire market down in the united kingdom and a lot of this obviously makes sense because mortgage interest rates have been skyrocketing the freddie mac survey of mortgage rates just for the first time broke six percent just came in this morning just a few minutes ago actually at 6.02 percent that's the lowest survey most of the surveys are showing that people are getting average mortgage rates somewhere between 6.3 to 6.8 pretty remarkable and south korea just had its biggest monthly drop in housing prices and again it all just relates to rates so there are three big things that we have to understand when it comes to housing and are we looking at hey you know because i see the comments right some folks are like hey but we've had so much in housing gains so much in the way of housing gains like hey a little bit of a fall isn't a bad thing right it's just a little bit of a fluctuation we don't need any kind of fud from you kevin that the housing market is in trouble that's fine but there are a few very interesting things happening let's break each of these down number one one of the reasons interestingly we're still seeing even though inventory has doubled in most areas we're still seeing relatively low inventory one of the reasons we're still seeing relatively low inventory is in my opinion because of this psychological impact of rates skyrocketing there's a really interesting thing that happens and i learned this as a real estate broker working with individuals and i've spoken with people today who without me prompting them have come up with this same argument and so people have this really interesting rationalization they think oh well if mortgage rates are rising then i better get in now before rates continue to go up now a lot of people get priced out purchasing power is down like 35 but interestingly that actually helps some properties still continue to sell and it's a really interesting phenomenon because when you look at the consumer the university of michigan consumer inflation and mortgage rate expectations you end up finding that consumers think that mortgage rates could go as high as eight and a half percent i don't believe that mortgage rates will go that high but it's very interesting because it's actually leading folks to gobble up a little bit of leftover inventory in the market now what's interesting to know about that is it ain't gonna last and that's because once mortgage rates settle and actually stay above six percent four months two months three months four months probably somewhere between three to six months is what i would expect uh we're going to see the removal of those sort of better get in before rates go to 10 like they used to be you know better get in while the rates are still single digits i think you're going to see a removal of that sort of buyer from the market and then you're going to be left with a market of buyers where there aren't that many buyers anymore and they're able to afford 35 percent less than what they were previously able to afford right that instead of a 500 000 home loan is about a 313 000 home loan that's a huge impact now that doesn't mean prices are going to come down 35 and i don't think they'll come down 35 but it does mean that we do have this really weird sort of and even though prices are trending down we have this lingering impact of buyers coming in going oh well i better get in now i don't know how much longer that can be sustainable and usually that ends when people perceive year-over-year home values falling so that's actually another really important thing to consider is that we have not seen year-over-year home prices fall in the united states yet our peak for home prices will probably end up proving to be about march of 2020 and you're not going to see a year over year decline of home prices until march of 2023 so even though on the month over month basis we're seeing declines which totally makes sense with what's going on with rates you actually have this potential that you're not going to hit real fear in real estate until march or april and that's when all of a sudden the people who are thinking about buying are not only faced with oh man 35 percent less purchasing power but now you're offsetting this can't lose optimism of well might as well get in now before mortgage rates go to double digits oh you know you're going to replace that with earner your prices are falling or maybe i'll wait right and it's usually that that uh like over fear or just the fear of the media and all your neighbors and everybody talking about oh prices are coming down it's usually that fear that perpetuates further declines in real estate and so this is exactly why we're launching for example house hack currently only for accredited investors the startup but in the future it'll be for non-accredited i'm working on the paperwork i promise i'm working on it because i see your comments i know you want to be part of it go to househack.com to learn more about my real estate startup but uh look one of the most important things that we want to remember is that fear point is probably going to come somewhere on march and april that's when we're going to get peak fear now there is also the belief that mortgage rates and especially the federal funds rate will actually stay a lot higher and uh stay at a higher level for a lot longer and this is sort of part two as of last month the market and even still to some degree today the market has relatively been pricing in the federal reserve is going to slow down their rate hikes uh we're not going to see that here on the 21st it's going to be another 75 bp hike 80 chance of that it's gonna be what it is uh but the market has been trying to price in this idea that the fed's gonna pause and then after they pause they're going to you turn to the downside and actually start dropping rates in the middle of 2023 i hate to say but i don't think that's realistic at all i think the federal reserve is going to have a hard time getting this really broad-based sticky inflation where just everything is going up down to two percent because remember that's the federal reserve's goal is getting everything down to two percent i do think we're going to see some very quick declines in j in inflation i think very quickly we're going to be able to go from eight percent to the seven to the six to the five percent range but i wouldn't be surprised if kind of like in weight loss we end up hitting some kind of interest or a cpi plateau where like for example let's say you lose 30 pounds and you're like i really want to lose an extra ten but you just can't like you're just not moving off of your weight because your body's like look man anything below this weight either i'm gonna make you eat more or i'm just gonna shut your metabolism down and you're just gonna fall asleep you know so it's kind of it i wouldn't surprise me to see a little bit of a plateau with cpi where it's like hey we're at four and a half percent inflation and you know it's december of 2023 and jerome powell is like guess we gotta keep rates at four percent until we get inflation down to two percent you know so that's going to suck for a little while longer and the longer we stay at sort of a flat but high level of the fed funds rate the more permanent damage we see to the housing market you could track this on a chart by looking at the 10-year treasury right the more you look at the 10-year treasury the more you see that above 2.75 the more damage you have to the housing market the more permanent that damage is to the housing market so we're going to see not only in my opinion the eradication of this sort of uh uh-huh it's better to know before ten percent raise you're going to see that go away when real fear actually sets in in march i remember when i became a real estate agent uh back you know and when i started the process back in 2010 everybody around me is like oh my gosh why would you want to get into real estate everything's going down it's so terrible and real estate did continue to fall when i had just started but it bottomed in 2011 to 2012 real estate takes a lot longer to bottom and it was really the best time ever to get into real estate and that's what i thought then as well i'm like these numbers are amazing like we we said the buying window is way open back then because you could literally borrow 100 of your payment and cash flow a lot that's a little trick you use the buying window to determine if you can borrow everything how positive or negative are you on a payment if you rent out the property uh i think we're gonna have a little buying opportunity coming again anyway so at number one we have that uh that can't lose optimism right that we're gonna see that fear in my opinion set in q1 of 2023 then we've got this higher inflation for for longer that plateau that's probably going to keep mortgage rates higher for longer which means more damage for real estate but there's also a third psychological thing that i want to talk about and this also comes from brokering experience i think psychology uh in money is very very important this is why i sell programs that are heavily based on psychology whether that's building your wealth in real estate becoming zero going from zero to millionaire in real estate property management being a real estate agent a very very critical psychological impacts in all of those programs you can check those out link down below with the coupon code seed there are also programs on building your wealth through stocks but the the psychological item we want to talk about here is that there are some arguments that are being made that current sellers won't sell because they'd have to rebuy with higher interest rates and it's true if you have an interest rate of two and a half or three percent why would you sell right now and take a six and a half percent rate well you wouldn't that wouldn't make sense but this is where that argument falls apart in my opinion and in my experience most owners of real estate are older we're talking about 45 to 65 year olds even up to 75 year olds on average right your average real estate owner is older it's not the gen z's it's not it's barely the millennials right it's the older generations they hold the most property and so what's fascinating here is if older generations look at this cycle and they start getting that fear you know tucker carlson and anderson cooper going oh my gosh you're every year prices have declined to you know 10 or whatever and then we get actual fear in the market then what you might get is a situation where older generations say you know what i actually have my nest egg in real estate their retirement funds basically in real estate i don't have time to huddle and diamond hand i don't have time to wait for the real estate market to bottom and then recover maybe i need to sell now so that way i can preserve my nest egg and i think you're going to see a lot more of that so you'll see less capable buyers with a reduction of purchasing powers of purchasing power less willing buyers because even though they might expect rates to continue to go up they'll be fearful of prices coming down but then you also potentially are going to see a lot more willing sellers when we actually get those year-over-year declines in q1 of 2023 because you're going to get those older demographics that say i just need to lock in the money that i've made because i might not have time to go through another cycle so all of these things point to really big opportunities to buy real estate in my opinion in 2023 and 2024 and now is the time to get your w-2 income as high as possible get your self-employment income as high as possible start taking less deductions pay off your debt any kind of debt that affects your debt to income ratio pay it down student loans card loans credit cards whatever don't go into new debt and folks get ready to buy real estate and if you're intimidated by real estate this for a living we've got a beautiful startup that's going to take advantage of all of this and we've already raised over 12 million dollars in just four business days for this startup we're really excited about that again working on non-accredited soon so if you're not accredited investor yet don't worry i'm working on something special for you thanks so much for watching and we'll see you soon bye