저자: Kevin · 외국인
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CPI 발표 후 증시 급락. 인플레이션이 예상보다 높고 전 품목으로 확산돼 연준이 금리를 공격적으로 올릴 것이며, 이로 인해 주식과 부동산이 하락할 것이라 주장. 2023~2024년 부동산은 매수 적기로 봄. 강의/코스 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Panic, panic, and then more panic. The markets are in a panic, and we need to discuss what's happening in the markets and how we should prepare for it . This is an important video that will be helpful for the rest of 2022 as it talks about what's happening in the market and what you should do about it, but I also want to talk about why this is happening .
I will also discuss the reasons why it has become difficult to buy eggs . Yes, it's literally an egg. Prices are soaring. Therefore, buying a burrito from a local Mexican street vendor now costs $14 . With a tip added , one breakfast burrito can easily come to nearly $20. This is the best burrito in the world.
Thanks to Coralis. But wow, this is absolutely insane. Now , I must briefly explain what happened today . Since that's somewhat historical , I'll actually talk about how what happened today relates to the next year . That's a big problem. Today was a truly awful day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1,276 points , the S&P 500 fell 4.32%, and the Nasdaq fell 5.16%.
Volatility also rose sharply , and all sectors of the stock market declined. Even Bitcoin fell 7.4% , prompting Bloomberg to mock Bitcoin, stating that it "clearly doesn't hedge against inflation ." And when you look over here, you'll see a sight you haven't seen since March 2020 . All stocks on the Nasdaq 100 fell today .
This is the first time this has happened since March 2020 . This can truly be called a historical event . Adding insult to injury , the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds surged to 3.41% . This is a bad sign for real estate . I will explain this in more detail later . And when I say the 2-year bond yield is 3.79% , anyone listening carefully might think, "Wait a minute .
Did you just say the 2-year bond yield is higher than the 10-year bond yield ? Is n't it usually the other way around?" that's right . This is called an inverted yield curve . And the situation is getting worse, and this is, oh , yes. Depending on who you talk to, it may have already begun or may not happen anytime soon, but it is a sign that the recession is not going to end anytime soon .
Today's panic was so severe that everyone focused on the stock market . The New York Times also reported on it. Of course, NPR also reported on it. The Wall Street Journal is also available. Even CNN reported on the stock market. And did you know? The fact that CNN is reporting on the stock market means that the stock market has finally become more important than criticizing Trump .
This is not a political statement . It's simply a fact . May I? This was a massive sell-off. And in reality, we still have three and a half months left . It has already been recorded as one of the worst startes to a stock market year since the Great Depression . Looking at the Nasdaq's record of falling by more than 4% in a single day , we can see where it ranks compared to other years .
So far , there have been seven instances of declines of 4% or more . This can be seen in the graph at the bottom right. Compared to other years, the years of the dot bubble and the Great Recession come to mind . You will realize that there are worst times during economic downturns . That's probably because we're in a recession .
So why is this happening ? Let's take a closer look at the reasons for this. Of course, I would like to express my gratitude to everyone who is taking the asset building course . If you wish to enroll, please use the coupon code " seed" via the link below. This is an excellent step-by-step guided course.
This could include building wealth, buying your first home, buying your first rental property, building assets through stocks, building assets as a real estate agent or YouTuber , or starting your own property management business . The coupon codes for these programs can be found at the link below .
Click that link and use the coupon code to connect with me on a private livestream . Every day the market is open, I will answer your questions about any issues you may have, such as real estate or stocks. You can also participate in the fundamental analysis that takes place every morning. This morning I conducted a fundamental analysis of cruise lines .
Oh, those are on sale. But is there a good reason why it's on sale ? To find out, you need to take the course . Please see the link below. Now, everyone. We need to have a serious discussion about what happened here today . Because, of course, the trigger for all this disaster today was CP's lie, namely the CPI inflation report .
The year-on-year inflation rate was projected to be 8.1% . In reality, as you can see, the actual value was higher at 8.3%. It was expected to decrease by 0.1% compared to the previous month, but it actually increased by 0.1%. Core inflation was projected to be 0.3% , but it actually came in at 6% .
The problem with a 6% inflation rate is that it translates to an annualized inflation rate of 7.2% . To convert it to an annualized rate , simply multiply by 12. Compound interest calculations are not performed. Of the 64 economists, only one, a German, got the answer right. It's not so much that the inflation rate fell , but rather that it was lower than expected .
This is not the biggest problem here . Yes, inflation reached a major peak this summer . It exceeded 9% . If you saw me live-streaming the CPI report from my cell phone on a German beach and said, "What the heck , it's over 9%. That's crazy," please leave a comment below. "Now, if anyone was there, please leave a comment.
Everyone, this is a problem. Not only is inflation at an all-time high , but first and foremost, the rate at which inflation is declining is slower than expected . Even worse, everything is still going up. Sure, rent and housing costs have risen 0.7% . That's really, really high . That accounts for about 33% of inflation.
So, as rent goes up, the cost of renting is increasing. What happens then? Inflation rises further. When inflation rises, the Fed is forced to take more aggressive policies , which will consequently drag down the stock market. The Fed is trying to do this intentionally, because the less wealth we have, the less rich we feel .
And when we feel less rich, we cut back on spending. And when we cut back on spending, inflation can actually go down. But this is simply It's not just a matter of rent rising 0.7% from the previous month or used car prices not falling as much as expected. The problem is the fact that everything is going up.
In fact, let's take a look at all the different categories here . Let's look at various categories. There are trimmed mean, median, sticky price, and core services excluding food and fuel. Unfortunately, when these are graphed, the trajectory of all these inflation rates is upward. In reality, it hasn't reached its peak .
Furthermore, and this is unfortunate , if we exclude all the major categories I'm talking about , this is the conclusion you're looking for. Let me show you what's left if we take away housing, food, energy (that's expensive eggs!), rent, cars and trucks—all of those things . Because the purpose is to understand what's going on with everything else .
For example, what about medical expenses ? How about curtains for the windows ? How's the carpet in your house? How much have they risen ? Looking at this graph , everyone, the situation is not improving at all. Inflation is still rising significantly, even after excluding everything else. It exceeds 6% .
It continues to rise . This is sheer madness . It's not just gasoline . It's not just housing costs . That's true of everything . For example, the price of eggs rose 2.9% this month. When converted to an annualized rate , this means that the price of eggs has risen by 34.8% . This is outrageous . In other words, there is a very big problem: stagnant inflation.
When inflation stagnates, the Fed must take out its hammer and knock inflation down . It's like playing whack-a-mole . The more times the mole comes out , the harder you have to hit it to get it back into its hole . The problem is that it's extremely difficult to get a mole back into its hole once it's emerged .
So, what will happen nex significantly more than ever before . Yesterday, we had already factored that price into our calculations . Yesterday, we estimated there was about a 60% chance that interest rates could only be raised by 50 basis points . This is approximately 0.5%. In other words , the Federal Reserve will only raise interest rates by about 0.5% .
Because the Fed usually does what the market expects it to do . This is interesting. It seems the Fed has nothing to do but talk to us about counter-inflation . Then the market prices in what the Fed will do , and the market or the Fed sees it and says, "Okay, I see. The vast majority of you think we're going to raise interest rates by 75 basis points at this meeting.
Okay , let's do that. " "That's how they do it. They give us verbal instructions, we reflect that in our prices , and then we actually do it . This is very useful because it allows us to examine the probability of the Fed's interest rate in detail . Right now, we have the federal funds rate, which I call the F rate, because it gives us that feeling of, oh, it's going up again .
Right now, we're at 2.5 %. That's the upper limit. So, technically, it 's from 2.25 to 2.5. Right? That's the range for this interest rate. You do n't need to worry too much about the range, but it's important to know because, looking here, we can see that right now there's a 65% probability of a 75 basis point rate hike .
But, although we didn't reflect that in our prices last time , this time we're also including a 35% probability of a larger 100 basis point rate hike . That's 1%. So, the F rate could go up by 1% . And last time... At the meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell said, "Major interest rate hikes are not typical for us.
Don't worry ." At this point, if the Fed says they won't do anything, you should understand to some extent that they will probably do so, since they said inflation is temporary . At least for now, they were wrong. Perhaps one day they will be proven right . They said, "We do n't expect to need to raise interest rates this significantly very often, except occasionally ." However, we are now planning to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points, following the two previous increases .
This is because the market is telling the Fed, "You need to lower inflation, but it's too late to pull the mole back into its hole, so you need to be a little more aggressive ." "Unfortunately , this aggressiveness makes people uneasy , makes markets uneasy, and makes them want to withdraw, especially from the real estate market .
I'll talk about this later. Not only are interest rates rising and prices rising, but there is also the fear that this is just the beginning, and that interest rates may rise even further than previously thought . The reason for this goes back to the 1970s , when inflation became very high because the country abandoned the gold standard.
In other words, the dollar was no longer backed by gold. This created the initial anxiety, which was then exacerbated by three other factors : the Vietnam War, the oil shock, and ris when people think that inflation will rise . And generally, when people think that inflation will rise, it tends to be self-fulfilling, because people rush to the stores to buy things before prices rise.
This is how the final push of inflation occurs." All of that happened in the 70s, and as a result, he ended up in a situation where he was known as Paul Valcker. This was caused by the then-Fed Chairman raising interest rates to a level higher than the inflation rate. To achieve the same result today, the Fed would have to raise its current 2.5% F-rate, forget about any 1% interest rate hikes, and raise it from 2.5% to around 9% to truly curb inflation .
And the reason the Fed would do so if necessary is that if inflation is not controlled, the economy could completely collapse and the currency could be lost . This is what happened in Germany with a wheelbarrow loaded with cash from the Weimo Republic. The entire economy will collapse, and currency will disappear .
It happened in Venezuela and Zimbabwe as well . And we are no exception . It could happen to us too . That's why, and I hate to say it, fighting inflation is tough because people's jobs, well , they're at risk of being laid off , and that's often a consequence of these circumstances and recessions .
And today we have many similarities to the 70s . There's the oil crisis, the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the threats from China and Taiwan . There are some differences, though, in that they did not abandon the gold standard , nor were there many instances where the price caps or price controls imposed by the government at the time had expired .
Inflation expectations are low today. Therefore, some people are saying that the Fed may not need to untie the Barkal . Unfortunately, today's inflation report simply says that you need to be a little more serious than you are now, and that you're taking too long. The problem with the Fed , and the problem for the Fed, is that the interest rate hikes they use work slowly .
It takes time for them to show their effects . So, what are some people saying? Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has said this: "Look, it's time for a 100 basis point interest rate hike to restore confidence . Because when the Fed loses confidence, unfortunately, their words to calm the market no longer work .
People stop trusting the Fed, and that actually leads to a sharp rise in inflation , and then a really bad market awaits . So the F rate will be raised. It will go up. There is debate about whether to raise it by 75 basis points. Some fund managers argue that it should only be raised by 25%. There is a man named Gunlock, and he says, "Yes, it should only be raised by 25 basis points .
Otherwise the Fed will have gone too far ." "Unfortunately, the Fed tends to do what the market wants , or what the market wants the Fed to do, and right now there is a 65% chance that the rate will be raised by 75 basis points . That will happen . In other words, the market is saying, ' Fed, take more hardline measures.'" They're saying, ' Raise interest rates .' So, what will happen now?
It will hit the stock and real estate markets hard . So, what has happened so far ? The stock market took a big hit today . Not only is inflation rising, but it's also falling below expectations, and everything is getting expensive . It's widespread and very serious . And when the Fed raises interest rates , the market thinks, 'Oh no, we have to price in a recession .'" In other words, as stock prices fall and interest rates rise, the real estate market will also be hit hard .
The real estate market is already starting to feel the effects. In fact, property prices fell by as much as 5.5% in just five months. This is a very serious situation . Because it is reminiscent of 2009, when the housing market fell by more than 1% per month . A 1% monthly drop might not sound like a particularly large number compared to when stock prices have fallen.
It's the same 5% as NASDAQ, right? But for real estate, a 1% monthly return is bad. Because the real estate market moves slowly . And I'll show you why things might get even worse early next year . This is really, really important . Therefore, you must understand this . Because even today, there are still many people who insist, " What are you talking about?
This is fine. Prices have gone up compared to last year ." I'm really exhausted. Clearly, they haven't taken any courses on how to build wealth . To understand what's happening , please refer to the link below . But now I will teach you that. Here we are . Look at August on the left . It was August 2020 .
That point is actually lower than the point I labeled as August 2022 . Yes, this place is more expensive than this one. Therefore, when compared, it's actually still a positive. It will probably be plus 5%, 4%, or 8%. But wait a minute , where exactly is it in terms of its orbit ? Oh no, this is the worst.
That's exactly the situation we're in now. In other words, real estate prices are currently on a downward trend . This is the problem. This is likely due to the sharp rise in mortgage interest rates since December, which has resulted in a roughly 35% decrease in purchasing power. Moreover, interest rates continue to rise.
This is a really, really bad situation. All of these factors will likely lead to a further decline in housing prices . And next year , probably around March, when we look back to when the decline began, we will likely see negative reports regarding housing prices . Tucker Carlson, CNBC , CNN, and others will likely report on television that housing prices are falling year-on-year .
This could lead to sellers selling out of fear . Such a situation has not yet occurred , and there has also been no year-on-year decline . So , be prepared. If you haven't yet joined the real estate investment course linked below and are feeling apprehensive about real estate , I'm not kidding, there's never been a better time to learn about real estate by following the lectures and links below and watch me conduct fundamental analysis live with you .
In other words, if you want to be prepared for 2023 and 2024 , now is the time to learn. In fact , this is why I started , will actually buy houses in 2023 and 2024 . Because I think it will be a great time to buy real estate . However, during that time, consumers' assets are likely to continue to decline .
Salary figures will likely plummet, which means a rise in the unemployment rate, and unfortunately, an increase in salary reports or unemployment reports . Well, banks like Capital One say that consumers are still in a relatively strong position today , with more savings than before the pandemic and bank balances slowly starting to increase, but it's unclear how long this situation will last .
And as the situation worsens , consumers begin to weaken, for example, by actually losing their jobs . Now, ladies and gentlemen, we may be entering the second phase of the "bear market ." This is an article from Goldman Sachs. They say that the first phase of the bear market is complete, and now it may be time to enter the second phase .
The second stage of a bear market is the entry into what is known as an earnings recession . So far, we've seen a tremendous number of corporate downgrades over the past two months. The green bar graph represents downgrades to companies' earnings forecasts . And when these adjustments are combined with downward revisions, they are compounded by further negative revisions from analysts (as can be seen in this chart ) and the potential weakness in consumption that may arise as consumer wealth declines .
Honestly, there's a real possibility that we'll be in a very difficult market not only for the rest of this year but also next year . I don't want to say it, but... I'm going to offer some ideas and suggestions now, but this is a bad situation. Let's take another look at the current snapshots. This is very widespread inflation.
The Federal Reserve may take the position that our efforts will take time . However, the market is saying, "FRB, you're no good. You need to regain our confidence, make tough statements to the market, and push it down ." And that's exactly what's happening. That's why it was put on the market today .
The reason for the sell-off is the possibility of falling into a revenue slump . This is a problem . So, given this situation, what should I do now? In particular, undesirable situations can occur in the market . Now, let me tell you what I'm going to do . And I would like to make this point very clear .
I am currently working towards becoming a certified financial advisor, and I have already passed the exam. All that's left is to submit the documents, but I've already submitted them . If those documents are approved, I will officially become a certified financial advisor. Even if I were a certified financial advisor, I cannot provide financial advice through this video .
Because I cannot provide financial advice to anyone other than individuals . As someone with a financial background and who makes a living from this work , I want to share this with you all . Here are some of the things I will be considering . The first two things I consider are what can happen in the stock market .
There are two things you need to know about what can happen in the stock market . The first point is that we could experience a repeat of 1982, with the stock market potentially soaring by as much as 20% in a very short period of time . That's entirely possible. Next, the second possible scenario , though not as good , is as follows: There is a possibility that stock prices could stagnate for 14 years, similar to what happened after the dot-com bubble burst .
This is a problem. Now, it's important to know that. It is extremely, extremely important. Because if you know what you might face , everything will go smoothly . We might be able to go to the moon , or the next 10 years might be hell . So, what do I think we should actually do? Again , this is not financial advice, but practical advice.
First and foremost , this environment is the best time to start a business . I started my real estate business at the bottom of the last real estate cycle . That was a difficult time . Getting started was really tough , but from 2013 to 2019 , it was very easy to make money as a real estate agent. Because that was a time of economic prosperity , when things were at their peak.
It was incredibly difficult to get started , but it set the stage and laid a very good, solid foundation for future strength. Secondly, I believe that getting into real estate , or at least preparing by taking a course, is a great thing . The problem here is timing. It will take even more time before the real estate market actually bottoms out and starts an upward trend again .
It may take several years. Therefore, we need to prepare for this now. I believe that even more difficult times are yet to come, so I do n't think now is the time to buy real estate. May I? I would like to clarify that point . Next, the first thing I do to prepare for entering the real estate market is to start paying off my debts.
Let's get an education . Consider becoming a real estate agent . This is n't a bad idea either. It's like a combination of options 1 and 2 . And let's increase our income. To qualify for real estate , you need two years of Workplace Work Experience (WTWS), work experience, and a tax return. Now is the time to build trust.
Now is the time to organize W2. Now is the time to reduce your debt. All of this will help you with your purchase . Thirdly, invest in reliable stocks over the long term using dollar-cost averaging . If you're okay with either scenario, then it's either the stock price rises 20%, 30%, or 40% to the moon , or doubles, triples, or rises as much as possible, or you endure a painful 14 years of stagnation.
I think both are very unlikely. Personally , I think prices will stay at their lowest point until inflation continues to decline , but that could take another 4 to 12 months . While some recovery may occur afterward, recessions and crashes are different things. Therefore, if there is a recession affecting earnings, stock prices will likely fall even further.
Therefore, it might be a good idea to look for companies that are less affected by the effects of a recession, that is, companies that continue to grow even during economic downturns, such as Tesla . The fourth is to obtain a driver's license . Become a white-collar worker instead of a blue-collar worker, raise your skill level, increase your income , and become stronger.
What am I doing myself ? I invest in stocks using the dollar-cost averaging method. Because whenever the Nasdaq is trading between 280 and 320 , I believe the market is in a state of temporary pause at its bottom . Unless inflation far exceeds the 9% rate seen this summer , I do n't think it will fall below this trading range .
Will there be large and sharp fluctuations within this trading level? Of course . In the meantime, I'm also preparing to look for real estate . Thank you for watching . I wish you good luck .
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