저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준이 금리를 동결했지만 점도표상 연내 추가 인상 전망이 다수라 매파 신호가 강함. 파월의 '2년간 인하 없음' 발언은 맥락상 2년 전망에 대한 답변이었다는 해설. 진행자는 시장이 9월 이후 인상을 일부 반영 중이며 연착륙보다 경기침체 기대가 커졌다고 봄. 근거 수치: 점도표 18명 중 12명 2회 이상 인상, 최종금리 5.6%, 인상 확률 7월 71%.
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uh Elon just tweeted about uh Powell being wrong uh about rates not getting cut in the next couple years that's not what he said oh that's not what he said so uh there's been a lot of debate about Jerome Powell making this argument that the FED is not going to cut rates for the next two years this is another mainstream media argument that oh Powell says he's not going to count rates for two years problem is if you look in context of the question that he received Jerome Powell was asked about two-year projections so he was answering about two-year projections he was not saying rates are not going to get cut for two years that's not what he was saying if you look at what he said out of context that may seem like that's what he says but what he actually did is he referred to his formula again he referred to his formula which his formula is take inflation expectations at some level of restrictiveness and that's what nominal rates should be so if inflation expectations as he told us last month or three percent and you want rates to be two percent in terms of where you want you want real rates to be two percent well then that means you need nominal rates to be five percent well that's where we are now five percent minus inflation expectations one year out of about three percent one to three years now uh then you get to a a restrictive real rate of two percent and Jerome Powell in this response to you oh they need to they're not going to cut rates for two years in his response he's talking specifically about two-year projections and he actually made it clear in his response that well look as inflation Falls you're going to have to adjust rates down to keep rates at a restrictive level that's equal to what it has been because if you don't reduce rates you're actually increasing rates by not reducing rates that's what he said however a lot of people were very very confused by Jerome Powell's response because he was responding to a question specifically about uh this uh you know two-year projection and I think that really skewed people's understanding of what he meant with no cut for two years so yeah I want to I want to add some good clarity about that Jerome Powell did not say they would not cut for two years he did say they would not cut this year but that's okay the bond Market's already priced that in but there's no cuts for two years it literally defies the very definition he gave in the response and the Very definition he gave last month so no that that that's a fundamental out of context misunderstanding of what Jerome Powell suggests take a look at what Nick T has to say in the Wall Street Journal of this morning uh he got a little schooled by j-pal yesterday or at least that's how social media uh picked it up when uh Nick T was asking about the pace versus the level of hikes and Jerome Powell made it clear that uh there's there's a big difference versus pace and the reason they pause is because now they can focus on staying at a level for a very long time so we'll go through what Nick T here together says however it's worth noting a few things as we go into Nick T's piece first of all Bloomberg is running headlines that the FED is indicating at least two more rate high likes or that Powell is I don't think Powell was doing that at all but the summary of economic projections was obviously the summary of economic projections coming in hot at 5.6 the worth noting very good point that the summary of economic projections came out on Friday or was submitted by members on Friday which is before both CPI and PPI data despite this though markets are read with a 71 percent chance of a hike on July 26th and by July or by September 20th we're looking at a cumulative about a 77 percent chance of at least one hike if not two so let's take a listen here to what uh Nick T says also keep in mind that Richard Clarita this morning did indicate that maybe only one more raid hike uh would uh would be expected and that two would be a bit aggressive and so we'll see uh there's a lot of talk that the FED is actually closer to being being done then where they uh then where people might think that they need to go uh and that would apply maybe one more rate hike but let's see a Nick T's piece here so beneficials agree to hold rates steady after 10 consecutive Heights the new summary of economic projections after their two-day meeting suggested they were leaning towards slowing down their increases versus stopping them all together most of them penciled in two more rate increases this year which would lift them to a 22-year high they really needed to hammer home the message that this was not the end which they did and this was something that we had all suspected that is the Fed really actually thinking about raising rates two more times or are they just trying to indicate some messaging to the market that hey man don't don't think this is a pause let's let's go a little strong then and indicate or prove to markets that this isn't a pause and let's send them a signal even if we don't believe it that this is just a uh you know a temporary skip you know we even had Jerome Powell will slip up and mention the word skip once and then uh Retreat and say oh well I shouldn't call it a skip oh so have you been talking about it being a skip anyway it's supposed to be excitement the FED implied the decision to maintain Benchmark fed funds rate uh would be at the level where it is now would be short-lived after holding the FED funds rate near zero following the pandemic the FED is raised okay we know the history of it yeah we want to get some more future leaks here Nikki leaks we don't need a history lesson here Wednesday's decision not to raise rates is a continuation of that process at j-pal common sense to go a little bit slower yes officials had signaled growing disagreement in recent weeks over whether to keep raising rates some officials became more doubtful at March because of the banking crisis but it's too early to see signs of banking cred the banking crisis that's true Jerome Powell gave a lot of I don't know answers yesterday a lot of I don't know if we're at a restrictive level of rates I don't know if inflation's coming down I don't know if the banking crisis has taken a hold yet a lot of I don't knowing yesterday again leading some people to believe that Jerome Powell's uh aggression potentially yesterday was maybe uh somewhat disingenuous and actually misplaced Powell and some colleagues had hinted at a potential compromise last month and which officials would forego a rate rise in June while leaving open the prospect of an increase in July a potential compromise hinted at last month interesting but recent economic data and hiring on inflation have been stronger than many forecasted forecasters anticipated this is true for hiring I wouldn't argue this was true for inflation inflation seems to have come in softer in the latest reports it's not clear what the criteria is they're looking for projections showed the 12 of the 18 officials think they will need to raise rates uh up to potentially 5.5 percent uh yeah that's true actually it was 16 of them rather uh projected uh a uh an increase to 5.25 to 5.5 and 12 projected 5.5 to 5.75 gives you a little bit more of a breakdown on the piece here another four officials projected they would need to all go up by only a quarter point exactly okay there's the fill in uh Powell has kept his committee United since inflation surged two years ago it's true every vote so far has been unanimous so uh that's the way uh somehow Jerome Powell is as they say corralling everyone I will be harder next time for them to raise rates than they realize says Richard Reinhardt a former senior fed Economist who is now an economist that derived this in melon uh you know this is actually something that Jeffrey gondlog billionaire uh investor also indicates and he's there he's very bearish right now he actually thinks people should be long bonds right now yeah he's anti the stock market broadly uh from just based on some of his commentary but uh his latest commentary yesterday suggests that the FED is done uh that a pause is in and uh that that you shouldn't be confused that this is a pause and the FED trying to signal hawkishness while in reality indicating they're done uh yesterday I did run a Twitter poll with about uh 3250 votes 51.2 percent of y'all indicated the Fed was done however the other 48.8 percent of you indicated the FED had either a 25 or 50 basis point hike left in them with that vote about split on how much the data probably will be a little bit more ambiguous their headline explanation is that they will know much more in six weeks but the fact is they won't know much more in six weeks chances are they'll be more confused in six weeks well that's why I think they'll probably end up pausing through to uh September the economy has shown only modest signs of cooling in recent months the share of workers voluntarily leaving jobs has returned closer to pre-pandemic levels suggesting that the tight labor market has eased a bit but steady hiring and wage gains could sustain elevated inflation although In fairness the FED did just throw in and Powell did briefly comment on it they did throw cold water on the idea that wage gains are certainly linked to higher inflation this is thanks to a Federal Reserve piece out of the bank of San Francisco where the feds indicated that hey maybe maybe there isn't as strong of a link between inflation and wages as we had previously thought it doesn't look like Nick T is choosing to talk about that at all housing market one of the sector's hardest hit by last year's rate increases has seen some improvements illustrating how difficult it has been for the FED to slow the economy and balance supply and demand true because there's no housing Supply so what do we take away from this well I think what we take away from this is well that of course Tomorrow there's an expiration of those programs on building your wealth all of those I mean look at all the different programs we have and they're phenomenal you've got the income side and the investing side a lot of people didn't realize by the way we had the property management and Rental Renovations course that's a very good one we've got uh someone with uh over 35 years of property management experience joins me and that one really exciting real estate investing stocks obviously but all of these programs at the income course is getting a price increase uh tomorrow at 11 59 PM that's the 16th and that'll be part of the phase one of four phases of increases and that's as we're coming out with a large new lecture set at the end of these four phases but I guess my bottom line takeaway of this is look we expected the FED would have to talk dirty to us if they paused there was no way they were going to be able to pause and talk nice to us because that would just sustain a market rally and that's kind of not exactly conducive of of encouraging inflation down we talked about that we talked about the wealth effects beforehand we somewhat saw that I don't think anybody was expecting the FED to be this hawkish we were expecting a hawkish pause but not this hawkish however when we evaluate that well but wait a minute the summary of economic projections was actually submitted before this week's data it kind of makes you scratch your head and go what's the point of the summary of economic projections if you don't put it together when you have all the data it's a little frustrating and maybe that's why j-pal was actually frustrated yesterday maybe just maybe he was frustrated because he realized this data came in softer than expected yet he had to present this summary of economic projections that was uh more frustrating uh perhaps and unrelated to the latest data that we've actually received so we'll see but that's the latest that we have from the fed and now we're going to move on over to looking at the European Central Bank and their rate increase oh I suppose they could quickly also note on this we talked about this a little bit earlier in the Stream I figure I just show this quickly as well one last thing is this world interest rate probability chart right here is still indicating a bias towards potentially it pause keeping it a pause in July this 5.25 level not being quite high enough to really indicate that push through but that push through does get priced in for another rain hike in the September and November meetings and as expected many economists now uh hunting their recession expectations that's something else we've been talking about for a few weeks now where we've said that Hey look it's highly likely economists are going to realize oh crap Q3 is only two weeks away I guess the recession won't come in Q3 and sure enough that's exactly what we've been getting from economists and new analysts here's for example a piece here uh U.S economic economics we have revised our outlook for a delayed downturn and higher policy rates and push out our anticipated slowdown in the US economy by two quarters now out to uh basically uh the beginning well you know the end of the year rather than Q3 and potentially uh q1 uh so Morgan Stanley let's see what they have to say so a slight adjustment and a statement should not be ignored as expected the FED held the range of the FED funds right steady but we think this slight change in wording from in determining the extent to which additional firming may be appropriate to and determining the extent of which additional firming may be appropriate what's the difference there in determining the extent to which of which to which additional policy firming may be appropriate of which additional firming may be appropriate wow is the consensus of the committee uh keeping further policy moves in question despite a hawkish step oh this is interesting uh of additional policy firming to a traditional firm I I I'm personally I have a hard time breaking apart this one I think what they're trying to say is uh they're while maintaining a tightening bias in the statement is it consensus keeping further policy moves in question despite more hawkish I'm not exactly sure how to read this as expected the Fed held the range of the FED funds rate steady while maintaining a tightening bias in the statement but we think a slight changing in wording from those statements is the consensus on the committee keeping further moves in question despite a more hawkish SCP so what they're saying is they're trying to say hey that the statement and the SCP were hawkish so it's a little H there but that actual little change was dovish potentially putting in questions this just shows you that they have no freaking idea that's that's really the answer there in the sap we saw a move up to 5.6 from 5.3 we vividly recall that upward revision to inflation projections despite data coming in line with the fed's March was most perplexing right I would agree with that moreover the upward Revision in the sap was paired with inflation risks that are still weighted to the upside yeah you said that like 30 times in relation to our forecasts we think this sets up core inflation to fall faster than the FED currently projects which should offset the takeaways from a higher Peak rate in the Dot Plot by the September meeting we believe core inflation projections for this year as well as the level of the fed's funds rate fed funds rate what just gonna cut off like that oh could get revised downward interesting that's actually interesting this is not the Mike Wilson Morgan Stanley camp this is your your other Camp inside Morgan Stanley and this is actually somewhat of a bullish and and dovish statement if anything uh Powell attempted to strike a balance between the fomc statement showed a more flexible data dependent consensus consensus uh nearly all committee participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise rates somewhat further by the end of the year and the July fomc meeting will be live he also underscored the Dot Plot shows no Cuts expected until 2024.
I think as anyone can see not a single person on the committee wrote down a rate cut nor do I think it's at all appropriate at the same time there were more dovish comments emphasizing that these SCP projections are not a committee decision or plan the committee made this decision today only about this meeting we did not make a decision going forward it's true some more distancing there pause sets a higher Bar for a follow-up hike there's only one more jobs than CPI data print between June and July not enough data to paint a different picture of the economy we preliminarily expect true and payrolls to be over 200k but paired with moderation and core CPI uh let's see falling for a third straight month Powell emphasized the need to see more data we think that puts them more on Pace for a September hike see I agree with that I would lean towards September as well just to get enough data buying time basically right yeah all right so that's Morgan Stanley's take uh in the latest Outlook we continue to see a soft Landing for the economy and wage is slowly easing as well as job gains consistent with economic Outlook we expect the FED to hold the peak rate at 5.1 for an extended period before making the first 25 basis point cut in March of 2024.
okay then let's take a moment and jump on over to what JPM says and then we'll have seen Morgan Stanley Goldman and JPM they prepare jpms for us here this is the one they're kicking the door in again oh these headlines all right Here Comes JPM here's the JPM report JPM the outcome of today's fomc meeting was hawkish and peculiar while the committee unanimously voted to leave rates unchanged a large majority of the fomc participants anticipated at least two more weight hikes this year and only two see the current setting as appropriate so why not hike today Powell said it was a continuation of slowing down the heights he tried not to tip his hand on July but given how many on his committee are inclined to hike multiple times this year it may be hard to get them to pause for more than one meeting as such We Now look for one more hike in July we continue to believe the lagged effects of freight hikes will weigh further on growth and don't believe the median 2 forecasts will be needed so nobody's really agreeing that the two forecasts is the right way to go since the decision to hold rates today was well signaled the real news was the dots particularly the dots suggesting the potential for going up to 5.625 given these projections a recurring issue in the press conference was pausing when 12 of 18 participants see at least two more rate hikes in the last half of the year and four indicating one more one can speculate that a deal was struck between Hawks and doves to pause but strongly signal a future hike see I I agree with that in fact that's what Nick T suggested as well that there was some kind of deal that we're going to pause in June and uh and then they they purposefully went hot to try to paper signal another hike that's possible normally the post-medic statement isn't a detail but edits to today's statement were minor in reflect policy on hold rather than tightening um trust forecast of disinflation but rather need to see it happen right not trusting the forecast right he did Paladin mention the forecast wrong before yeah that's JPM okay so jpmc's July Morgan Stanley September uh Goldman seems to agree as well with with July and uh really seems like what you got is uh most people projecting at least one more hike I personally don't buy it because of the Soft Data but I suppose we'll see what happens over the next few days in data and we'll uh or a few weeks here and we'll see what happens uh next month but boy you know I think a lot of people were looking for clarity from this last meeting we did not get clarity from this last meeting we got more confusion
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