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6월 FOMC 점도표/SEP를 앞두고 연준이 금리 인상 신호(5.3%)를 보낼지 전망. 3가지 요인(임금·CPI·슈퍼코어 둔화, 역사적 맥락)으로 연준이 추가 인상 대신 동결을 이어갈 것이라는 논리. 시장은 연내 인하 기대를 거의 제거했고 나스닥은 3월 대비 20% 이상 상승. 강좌 가격 인상 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
but now we've had a look at the sep and there could potentially be some concerns coming from it so let's get pull up the step while I pull up the sap thank you so much of Corey for shouting out your daily content helped me land a sales and trading analyst position for Wells Fargo as a sophomore here since March of 2020.
wow that's really impressive thank you so much uh and congratulations to you uh and remember hey you can always join those courses linked down below if anybody else is interested in even more Deep dive perspectives but let's go ahead and jump into this summary of economic projections and let's see what we have here now this is the last summary of economic projections that we got this is from March 2022 and what I'd like to do is Mark up what are likely going to be the biggest numbers and so the first one we're going to start with by far that I think everybody cares about the most from the FED is this item right here that fed funds rate where does the Federal Reserve think the fed funds rate will be for 2023 4 and 5.
I actually think the FED has this potential of doing some massive signaling right here for the end of 2023 and the reason for that is simple at the end of 2023 the bond market still believes there's a chance the Federal Reserve is going to cut that is if they raise in July the bond market is projecting the FED is going to drop back to five percent in December in fact when you look at World interest rate probabilities you see an increase going into July and a decline going into December the FED could absolutely destroy that by simply revising this number higher my guess is If the Fed wanted to really price in the potential of another height you have to consider the following right now Fed rate policy sits somewhere between five to five point two five it's sort of a market determined floating rate and when you consider a rate increase you would need this number to rise slightly above uh 5.25 my guess is that this number and even though it's just sort of an average or median it's supposed to be a middle indicator of what the FED is thinking I I kind of think they somewhat collude on these numbers a little bit no guarantees Jerome Powell says they don't but uh then again I don't necessarily believe that but that's okay it's okay to to not believe them for a moment but anyway so if we consider this what do we end up having as a Fed potential well I think the FED ends up saying 5.3 as a reality here now what's neat about that is you're actually 10 basis points above the low end right now but how many basis points are you actually above if you go to 5.3 well you're actually only about five basis points above the low end if you go with 5.3 because the low end would be 5.25 on another rate hike however it does signal some slight opening to that potential to another eight height if this number does not move up to 5.3 the FED is telling you yeah we're probably not going to hike so you kind of have to see this number go to 5.3 otherwise I think everybody's going to call the feds Bluff and if the number goes down it means you're signaling price Cuts stocks are going to Moon even more than they already have it'd be ridiculous I think this has to go to 5.3 now any number above 5.3 in my opinion is extremely hawkish because if we start going to the neighborhood of five five let's say so five I'll put 5.3 would kind of be like okay we kind of anticipated that but if we end up going with a number like 5.5 I would probably call that a sad face and five four somewhere in between right it's from like neutral to slightly negative uh but I think this number matters the most followed by probably their projection for next year although they've been wrong about their projections and too low about their projections consistently and historically so I I don't know that the forward projection matters too terribly much uh I would probably consider maybe leaving at 4.3 the end of next year number and staying something with a slight elevated tune uh to the uh the number over here on the 2023 figure so I think this number matters a lot I actually believe the Federal Reserve is going to signal to us that hey we don't have to cause as much unemployment as we previously thought I believe the fed's probably going to go with a 4.1 revision right here so we're going to go from 4.5 to about 4.1 and we might see this uh this future terminal uh number come down as well this might end up being like a 4.3 so I think you'll see a softness in the unemployment rate here in terms of GDP you'll probably see a revision up as markets punt the GDP uh or a recession into next year uh and I wouldn't be surprised the others some would stay stable but I wouldn't be shocked to see a pump up over here I don't think you'll see a pump down if you see a so if I had to prioritize these and I was going to give sort of a ranking as to which to pay attention to um well we'll label them but I would certainly start with the FED funds rate that's absolutely where I would start uh their inflation projection is going to matter but in my opinion not as much before I break down though the exact ranking I just want to give you a quick breakdown on the following this is a change that we're making what we're actually doing is we're going with a four phase of price increasing here because we're getting a lot of emails that staff at me Kevin for the courses and people saying hey you know I just you know I'm waiting until this state to join or whatever so we just wanted to be really transparent with what's happening in the courses so you can see that on screen now and then I don't have to talk about it that much but basically we're having four phases of price increases for each course and then after those four phases which would mean the base prices are going to be about two to three hundred dollars higher each of these courses is getting a very large new uh lecture set of releases all three of these courses right here and so it'll be a pretty big deal so at least we're pretty excited about so anyway I put it on screen so I can talk about it less long just out of respect for everybody it keeps it a little shorter uh while at the same time putting that information out there for those who want it so I think that's a little easier but let's label this in numbers here so top priority I think is this fed funds rate uh that's number one without a doubt again if they don't go to five three they're signaling that they're bluffing about potentially raising rates in the future so I don't think they can do that markets have reacted very negatively to a downward Revision in GDP before so it's possible that you could get a neutral response from markets if you get like a 5'3 on the future fed funds rate and maybe something uh like a 0.6 a slight revision up in GDP that could be good markets like this so I'm going to put a mark over here the markets really seem to care about this what markets actually surprisingly don't seem to care about that much is actually I know it sounds crazy but rates the interest rate expectations for the FED have really fallen and if we look at the world interest rate probability today oh and when I say Fallen I mean they've shifted to a point where the Market's not pricing in as many Cuts anymore in fact it's gotten pretty steep the Market's almost already completely priced out rate Cuts this year I'll show this to you in a chart which is quite remarkable but what's really the insane part is that you have a Fed that's made it clear they don't want to cut this here markets transitioned from okay we're pricing in rate cuts to okay never mind we have to wait for rate Cuts next year and the Market's gone up so while the Market's gone up you've actually seen uh this this uh um uh reduction in uh interest rate cut expectations let's look at this a little more closely so if I draw an arrow on this world interest rate probability chart what I want you to see is that right now we're actually sitting here let's draw a line in it right now we are sitting cut that out there we go we're sitting right about here right now uh and you can see that markets are really pricing in at this extra hike over here somewhere between July and September now now I think that's actually quite interesting because previously we were not pricing in a peak here in September instead you were pricing in a peak in July and so you've actually delayed that Peak to your September meeting and your potential for a first cut between November and December and then your larger cut where you're actually getting below five percent is being priced in for January all of this is a massive shift from where we were during the banking crisis consider for a moment where we were three months ago today and honestly I think it's a little weird that it's already been three months since the banking crisis I don't know what happened but time seems to be going very very quickly this year and it kind of feels weird but let me show you I'll share screen here so let's see here uh present the other screen just takes me a second to pull up the other window oh and then I'll have that up for us there we go all right uh not that one let's go with this one here we go from March and look at this March had a peak priced in for May and the peak was actually below five percent you had about a 4.95 peak priced in for May folks we're already above that and look at where the cuts were priced in you were the market was pricing in Cuts as soon as September and then multiple Cuts you were looking at somewhere around 1.75 basis points of or sorry 170 basis points of cuts 1.7 percent of cuts by January this is insane I mean the fact that we went from this crazy amount of cuts to quite literally no Cuts this year a terminal rate now either in July or in uh a terminal rate in September and the Market's gone basically straight up over that time frame folks it's nuts and it really actually goes to show you that markets right now don't really care about uh this terminal interest rate or the higher for longer regime I think markets are are realizing inflation is gone we're not expecting a Paul volcker sure things might stay higher for longer but we're almost okay with that look at the NASDAQ look at where we sat on March 14th right here right here on in the middle of this chart is where we were pricing in 170 basis points of cuts by the end of the year now we're pricing in no cuts by the end of the year and for pricing in that we still don't have a terminal fed funds rate and where's the market oh don't mind us it's only 20 percent higher than where it was over here look at that we were at about 300 on the queues here and now we're sitting at 363.
that's over 20 percent higher despite the fact that the market has unpriced all of those Fed rate cuts that were priced in for this year that's insane by the way that uh website uh there with the chart is Weeble if you want to join Weeble get yourself 12 free Stocks by going to metcaven.com free all the Affiliates are linked down below that is a paid promotion I can also throw up this little paid promotion Banner here thanks to using stream yard stream yard is pretty awesome you can throw up a bunch of banners look at that there's my stream yard pitch I have a banner for it I've met kevin.com stream yard to learn how to do that okay so continuing with with this chart here the summary of economic projections a lot of people refer to the Dot Plot and and the Dot Plot is actually something that you could see here what I like to do although I I you know it's it's somewhat difficult uh to get appropriate because you're taking into account you know 16 to 18 different people's perspectives but what I like to do is is somewhat predict where I think most of the dots are going to go for this particular meeting and so what I'm going to do is I'm going to look for the 5.3 number which is going to actually sit about where those three dots are 5.3 5.35 even but unfortunately 5.35 will round to 5.34 but anyway I would expect you're going to see a shift up of the majority of these dots to right here uh that would be my guess is that most of fed participants the FED participants well price in about one maybe that one more rate hike they can always adjust down but remember this is a signaling tool they are not committing to what is on this chart it is solely a signaling tool and if they want to prevent inflation expectations from running away they probably want to signal either being roughly here with the majority of these dots or they'll want to bulk up a little bit here to maybe even signal one or two more hikes something like this is what I would expect for the Dot Plot I do not think we'll see anyone down here and I even though there's a chance that you're going to have somebody super high up here I wouldn't be surprised if you eliminate this top Edge so I think you'll eliminate the edges and you'll get some concentration amongst that five two five to five four level that would be consistent in my opinion with really signaling hey or not necessarily done now don't get me wrong I think the Federal Reserve is going to be done that's mostly because of history and weak CPI uh so weak inflation weak wage inflation those three things weak inflation core inflation coming down super core plummeting super core way down I mean you're in you're the you know under three percent range annualized it's fantastic so super core is way down uh wage pressures are evaporating by the month I mean it's incredible how wage pressures are falling uh and then of course you have history that says the FED should not stop start stop start so all of those three aspects uh those those three things we just talked about were you really really consider them and and then pay attention to them right wages CPI super core uh pretty important uh and then uh obviously oh what was the third one I just mentioned I don't know why it escaped me but anyway uh the the three things that we just mentioned wages CPI super core uh it wasn't inflation expectations we already went through that uh I can't remember whether somebody write in the comments please what the third one was but I wanted I just wanted to outline my life I need more coffees what it is but anyway the the history of course that's so stupid the historical aspect thank you uh so history all of these three things right here are really going to destroy the ability for the FED to actually raise so here's what I really want you to take away from this segment what I want you to take away from this segment is this word that everybody loves on YouTube uh and I actually think the FED is going to pull this off on us I could be wrong and it depends what the next CPI is going to do but you ready for this I think the fed's going to pull off a click bait over here I think the FED is going to try to Signal click bait in saying we're going to be more aggressive so they're going to signal clickbait but these three things are going to eliminate that possibility of actually happening and they'll end up staying paused again for July and what we'll do is we'll just keep kicking the can down the road of these expectations of what the FED is going to do that's my thesis and I'm sticking to it unless of course the data changes you know then we'll flip flop but right now the data does not say that another hike is necessary my take now we'll see but again you know take a look at uh those uh m remember we've got four phases of price increases the first price increase is happening on the 16th which is just in two days so if you want to lock in the best price before we get through four phases of price increases before this massive lecture drop coming up you'll want to join before the 16th remember you could always email us for bundle code or questions at staff meet kevin.com we'll be more than happy to take care of you but otherwise that gives you my thesis on what's going on with the FED over here and uh we'll see what happens today but we'll be looking we'll be comparing this to what we actually get from the Federal Reserve today
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