저자: Kevin · 외국인
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CPI 근원 물가 둔화를 근거로 연준 금리 인상 중단(pause)이 확실하다고 주장. 주거·중고차·운송서비스가 인플레 주범이며 나머지는 둔화 중이라 봄. 시장은 7월 인상 확률 약 62%를 반영하나 본인은 인상 없을 것으로 봄. 엔페이즈·ubiquiti·인텔·이베이 Etsy 등 개별주 전망 제시.
다듬은 글
well its official Nick T from The Wall Street Journal the fed's mouthpiece just responded to the CPI crisis or is it we'll talk about what the Bears and Bulls are thinking and we'll also talk strategy as well as some stocks that I'm looking at right now that I think could be well positioned for where we're heading but first we have to remember that what we talked about in this morning's live stream in the meet Kevin report 103 was that a 20 rally in the S P 500 does not necessarily create a bull market well that is the technical definition of one take a look at this we had a bull market here in early 2001 towards the end of 2001 and the end of 2002 so are we potentially much like a bird flying into the window of a house blinded by this now we're at a bull run classification and are we blindly walking into a potential rug pull by the way a bird did actually just crash into my window that's why I thought of that analogy I I don't know why I'm mentioning it the bird's okay but it was a little shocking to me because these large glass windows here and I'm like oh that was quite than expected but anyway Bird's okay and uh let's see if we are going to be okay so beyond this 20 argument here we need to understand some of what's actually happening with inflation so we have to look at the facts and the data first so let's start there and that is of course where I like to write on here that on the 16th at 11 59 PM we're raising the prices on the AI course the productivity course as well as the real estate investing the stocks and the sales group we're raising everything again uh that is something we regularly do is we add content and boy we've got the entire team working on even more new lectures right now so we've got a big lecture release date coming out that we're very excited to share with you so check that out by the link down below or just go to meet kevin.com whatever is easier for you so what do we have on this chart well this is obviously pricing pressures here on inflation and what we could see are two lines number one we could see core those are going to be these gray charts right here that's your core inflation kind of where we sit right now and then you have this headline inflation figure which you could see had much more of a roller coaster up and more of a roller coaster down that headline inflation falling pretty dang rapidly right now core inflation not falling super rapidly but if you look closely we could see that peak in core around September of last year somewhere around that Jackson Hole time and if you actually look closely enough I know it's almost like you have to squint your eyes that's where the Bears laugh and go ah yeah you have to look so closely because it's falling so slowly but the reality is it actually is falling decently we are seeing disinflation at almost every different a segment of the inflationary reports now they might be a total lie in total BS but what's actually driving core up and it's worth noting what's driving Cora well there are two big things driving core up right now so here's the fact when you look at the goods chart of where Goods inflation is coming from it's coming from Transportation Commodities less motor fuel but if you actually look at this chart art and you see that pink bar you could almost say that if you take the highs here and the highs here and cancel it out with the lows here you really got nothing and I'm not trying to re-jigger this chart or whatever we're just trying to Simply say look if you remove this pink bar of the last two months you'd have almost no core Goods inflation and this is this Transportation commodity is less motor fuel that's a fancy phrase it's basically your used cars your new cars tires and parts for vehicles used cars really shot up because we still have a shortage of used cars and even though leading indicators suggest that used cars should be coming down in prices people still have the capability of paying for these vehicles and so we're still seeing some volatility in vehicle spending and therefore vehicle pricing now it's not to say you want to go through the CPI report and start ripping everything out this is simply to put a magnifying glass on where are the problems well this is where one of the problems is and this is where the second problem is which is your housing sector as well well as your transportation services over here so you still have a little bit of heat there related to again that vehicle segment otherwise we're getting pretty narrow there on what's actually contributing to inflation and when we take a look at what we're looking at the forecast for shelter inflation with we could see we really just hit the peak so all of a sudden if you write down okay what's really driving inflation right now if you really want to know it is still and it sounds remarkable but it is still housing boy I'm tired of talking about this crap it is still used cars it's not even Airlines anymore they're negative and it is still Transport Services which that one's been another volatile component you could really see that one more clearly here by just looking at that lime green segment we didn't see it last month but boy it's been a contributor for almost every single month with the exception of a couple over here over the last year so the point of this is really to say bro broadly once you ignore not saying you want to okay I always get the comments sure Kevin sure once you strip everything out there's no inflation good one no it's actually if you take out very small segments of things that is narrowed categories housing Transportation cars and I understand that's a big part of people's lives but what is everything else doing what is that super core sector doing and it's actually growing extremely slowly but you know what don't take it from me let's look at some of the facts and some of the data because sometimes I feel like you know people want to see the numbers on screen they're like Kevin we don't just want to hear from you we want to see the data and I respect that I totally respect that so here it goes CPI super core in fact smart people are critical right that's okay it is okay to be critical that's that's a sign of intelligence CPI is super core which offers a highly imperfect proxy of Powell's preferred measure CPR or pce super core rather so in other words a sort of a rough guesstimate based on our CPI to get to a pce super Corp what did we see for CPI supercorp just 0.2 percent point two percent annualized is 2.4 percent that's fantastic last month we were at just 1.2 percent annualized which you can see here that 0.1 percent in April so in other words again you're taking out some of those those really volatile components like the autos and then you take out just housing what are you left with virtually no inflation if this number was hot the FED would be able to say this phrase and I know you've heard it before the FED would be able to say inflation is Broad based inflation is pervasive and when inflation is pervasive and broad-based guess what happens we hike and guess what Bloomberg economists are projecting now a full stop I kid you not Bloomberg is now forecasting a full and complete stop to a any kind of rate hikes now this stands in contrast to what Nick T says and so how do we reconcile some of this information well first I want you to look on screen here I want you to see this full stop headline this is literally just bloomberg.com you didn't have to pay a dime to see this look you could learn about Trump's indictment oh we're supposed to go here okay U.S inflation reports suggests fed pause will become full stop now I'm already going through some of the details here so we're not going to just read you an article we want to give you the bottom lines and respect your time and the point is the data we got in this report reiterates a complete pause and this is consistent with history that the Federal Reserve does not want to send the signal of being wishy-washy with raid hikes that would be a real big problem markets however are not yet pricing that full stop in and this is actually quite fascinating look at this current rate hike probabilities uh are sitting well we're basically committing to a pause for tomorrow that's is no doubt this is about an 88.5 percent chance of a pause there should really be no surprise or shocker tomorrow that we'll have a pause tomorrow that's almost guaranteed at this point but then what else you have well then you have Nick T's response uh where is it oh I don't think I saved it in here okay I'll pull it up really quick but tomorrow or rather July's rate monitor now this is an interesting one okay because think about this uh this is going to tell us what is the market pricing in for July and right now for July you're still actually relatively close to a clean toss uh in fact it's risen just almost 32 minutes here up to a 62 probability that we are going to get a hike next month now why would it have risen from a coin toss to about a 62 probability of a hike next month and why is Kevin and Bloomberg saying not a chance of a hike next time in my opinion it's because of this article from Nick T in the Wall Street Journal again I'll save your time I'll give you the bottom line bottom line here is actually the first paragraph I read the whole thing I'm not just reading the headlines read the whole thing but the bottom line is really the first paragraph in this one honestly fed officials uh concerned about stubbornly high inflation could lead them to signal that they are prepared to lift interest rates again this year even if they hold them steady on Wednesday of course the FED is going to say that because if the FED doesn't say that they're willing to raise rates again well then it's going to send inflation expectations up and what are inflation expectations doing right now well the five-year inflation expectation who's been a little volatile today but it's actually remaining relatively anchored at 2.156 ish relatively low it's not a super bottom like what we've seen in the past few weeks but you could see how low anchored we are in just the last six months this is fantastic this is where you want to be with inflation expectations so point is core inflation low inflation expectations low history saying stay at a pause all of that great news reiterating staying at five percent obviously you get a bad report things change barring a bad report which today's report was not a bad report there's pretty much a long expectations what do you have you have the FED staying paused all of those are leaning towards that so how do we allocate in this sort of Market in a not personal financial advice manner what stock should we consider now I want to be clear about this even though I'm a licensed financial advisor and I'm streaming to you on this beautiful webcam that you could learn about as well by going to metcaven.com webcam or you can get life insurance in as little as five minutes by going to bet kevin.com life or you can learn everything about me or the other services that I offer on the courses and yes I'm a fund manager ATF fund manager or whatever by going to meet kevin.com scroll around you can see everything you need to know well aside from all of that and the paid promotions I think there are some stocks that aren't actually seeing the love just yet and I want to give you a quick thesis on some of those mostly as a thank you for making it to this part of the video because I suspect a lot of people actually don't but quite frankly that's okay because then you get the good value back here okay so what do we want to look at so obviously here's Tesla up 3.28 it's starting to get a little expensive now we're sitting over uh you know somewhere around 2 and 2.15 ish on a PEG ratio it's starting to get a little pricey so where are the potential opportunities and risks so obviously you've got end phase over here what do you have with end phase well the problem that you have with endphase unfortunately is that end phase is really a real estate related play and when end face okay come on there I just want to make the window larger I don't need to enter a password to do that okay when Enphase does well is when the real estate market does well and the real estate market had its slowdown between May of 2022 and December of 2020 too which what's interesting is mface hit its high in December of 22 and it actually was closer to a low in May of 2022.
this indicates there's about a seven month lag in this now what's really fascinating here is that we are coming up on about seven months we're about six and a half months into the year of real estate prices actually trending up again and so there's an argument to be made that end face could see a nice Bounce from this level about 180 to the mid 200s pretty easily and then on from there especially as we get to bi-directional charging tentatively q1 2024 though I always expect delays and of course we get more battery deployments yes net energy metering is probably going to be something that's going to hurt for a while because it does increase your cost of getting into solar especially in places like California and uh obviously interest rates make it a little harder to finance some of these panel systems but the return on investment for solar is still pretty dang solid and as the stock market Rises and real estate market Rises I wouldn't be surprised to see some energy investment here again so here's a potential play What's another potential play well another potential play that's not getting a lot of love right now is ubiquity now I want to be transparent here I have personal exposure to the stock that I initiated right around 165 dollars I also have personal exposure to end phase so I want to be very clear uh and these aren't you know personal recommendations for you you have to figure this out yourself these could be wrong but I'm just looking you know when we're looking at stuff like this like Nvidia going off the freaking charts uh you know I'm like where where is the opportunity left even AMD even though it's down three percent today it's like things are going off the charts right so where are opportunities left I am fearful of PayPal I think PayPal could do pull off a meta but I think the risk is too high thanks to stripe competition it's debt load I don't think they're going to transition to dividends their debt load isn't that high they have excellent cash flow excellent excellent free cash flow but they really need to move to dividends and become a value play and right now there's still a growth play and I don't want to hang out for that transition but if they transition to a value play and they just provide great service to their customers despite the social media risk there could be some opportunities here but ubiquity is interesting because they really got marked down substantially due to uh over ordering inventory and now having too much inventory having to mark down some of their inventory the risk here is that those marked on Downs have to continue and so some of their balance sheet continues to get a write down but you're trading right now for somewhere around uh you know September levels of 2020 uh you're not quite yet at the 123 covid levels right but you're pretty dang low so absolutely still some downside risk here for ubiquity this is a thinly traded stock it's also a stock that has a lot of uh concentrated ownership the the founder of the company owns like 90 of this company something to that effect so there's a lot of of risk and you know is the founder going to Elon Musk yet but what's interesting is you don't actually have a lot of Institutions paying attention to this company and their margins are remarkable I mean these are nvidia-like margins for routing equipment and I think the more we get into artificial intelligence virtual reality augmented reality the more demands there will be on home networking prosumer networking uh Enterprise networking and ubiquity is a fantastic play for that in my opinion now uh then you also have Intel obviously there's talk about them with arm that's not a big deal with the rmypo tentatively it's drawing some attention to the stock but what I think is a bigger deal is their Foundry setup I think this is a if they build it they will come if we build it they will come play and this is a company that over the next three years is going to be one of the first companies to get access to the brand new manufacturing machines that asml is coming out with even before tsmc Intel will be manufacturing three nanometer chips you've got some huge opportunity and first mover Advantage here especially in their Foundry Services which nobody seems to be underwriting right now a lot of this company when you look at the fundamentals of the past you're really looking into a foggy lens whereas I think the future here is manufacturing and no longer strictly chip design people look at this as like oh well Apple dumped them as a processor creative who cares I don't even care if intel makes a single chip again obviously they'll use that to transition and their revenues in that sector may still decline for me though this is a play that long term it's a Foundry play a manufacturing play so these are someone watching I'm also watching at Sea on a potential rebound we're relatively close on the low side of the fibs here but also from fundamental point of view this is a company that if business margins for small businesses or creators or whatever designers go down Etsy margins don't and that's a beautiful thing with Etsy is that Etsy ultimately uh maintains margins through uh selling services or or selling space to their customers uh and taking a gross uh merchandise volume transaction fee rather than you know selling their own products so less exposed to inflation and uh you know you have to be careful is it potentially a coveted play right so that gives you a wrap up if you like my perspective and you want to hear how we come up with this fundamental analysis check out they've all of that information and we'll see you in the next one thanks so much bye
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