저자: DylanLoomis · 외국인
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테슬라 10-Q 분석 중심. 캐펙스 증가(70~90억달러)에도 현금창출은 양호, IRA 세액공제가 원가 일부 상쇄. 에너지 저장 사업 매출인식은 지연 가능성 언급. 모건스탠리 베어불 점심 설문에서 단기 주가 상회 응답자 0명, 가격 인하 여파로 레거시 자동차의 EV 투자 축소 가능성. 규제크레딧 의존 논리는 실적상 과장이라 주장하며, 향후 6~12개월 테슬라 주식 매집 기회를 시사.
다듬은 글
welcome to electrified it's your host Dylan Loomis quick shout out to my newest patrons Greg W and Danny M thank you for choosing to support the channel I think most of us here are not but if you're still in the camp that doesn't really realize how much the media dislikes Elon well I think now is a good time to look around and see that something doesn't add up Elon chimed in saying this really opens your eyes if they're this wrong about Tesla what subjects are they actually right about the truth is this type of thing has been going on now for years and it's actually part of the reason why I started electrified in the first place we talked about the new rear wheel drive model y that was available in Canada last week and it turns out it is actually going to come from Shanghai this will be the first time that Giga Shanghai Tesla's main export Hub will actually export to North America they're saying Giga Shanghai started making this model y for Canada earlier this month and that they're targeting producing 9000 units this quarter as we touched on last week this should confirm that this vehicle will use the lfp packs and this is the lowest cost structure Factory that Tesla has Giga Shanghai so shouldn't come as a huge surprise and don't forget toward the end of last year Reuters said Tesla was considering exporting china-made cars to the United States to which Elon said false so technically this is true because these cars are going to Canada not the United States but for anybody hoping this rear-wheel drive variant comes to the United States I don't know you may have heard last week there was a shareholder group that got together and wrote a letter to Tesla and the board basically saying over time we've grown increasingly concerned with governance and Leadership issues at the company although this entire group of investors only owns collectively less than one percent of Tesla shares they said due to the board's failure to restrict the CEO's outside commitments and ensure he's focused on solve the many challenges the company faces we've lost confidence in its members I'm not sure too much will actually come of this but I did think that this group was an odd collection of investors to say the least I'm not going to play this entire clip but the takeaway is that Rogan was essentially gushing over the Cyber truck for over two minutes dude let me tell you something that is the coolest vehicle I've ever seen in person in my life the Cyber truck from Tesla it's a stamped steel electric all off-road vehicle that's bulletproof it could stop a 45 round it's you can raise and lower the height so you can off-road on this thing it looks like it's a hundred years in the future Tesla's 10q came out this morning for quarter one I have not had a chance to go through the full thing but I found a few quick takeaways dating back to the spring of last year Tesla has been guiding for between five to seven or six to eight billion dollars in capital expenditures every year well now that number has been bumped up to seven to nine billion dollars and here's the fact check we currently expect our capex to be between seven and nine billion dollars in 2023 and in each of the following two fiscal years Tesla said our business has recently been consistently generating cash flow from operations in excess of our level of capital spend and with better working Capital Management resulting in shorter days sales outstanding than days payable outstanding our sales growth is also facilitating positive cash generation we have and will continue to utilize such cash flows among other things to do more vertical integration expand our product roadmap and provide financing options to our customers the financing options to customers both on the automotive and on the energy side is something Tesla has been doing now dating back to last year but it sounds like they may expand those operations and that's not to be overlooked if Tesla can put together a more competitive offering giving the challenging interest rate environment right now and we finally get some color on how the inflation reduction Act is going to hit Tesla's financials I said further the average combined cost per unit of our vehicles increased year over year due to increasing prices of raw materials manufacturing Logistics and warranty costs these costs however were partially offset by manufacturing credits earned as part of the IRA during the first quarter so it sounds like the inflation reduction act impact will be seen on the cost of automotive sales rep Revenue line and potentially the cost of energy generation and storage Revenue line and just a note for when they said a gross margin for energy generation and storage improved from negative 11.7 q1 last year to positive 11 in q1 this year which was mainly driven by the growth in energy generation and storage Revenue don't forget these deployments may actually trigger when these Mega packs are actually connected to the grid but part of the revenue recognition for these projects may actually be delayed by another few quarters because there are certain milestones in these mega pack contracts and here's where Tesla shares the numbers for the deferred revenue for energy generation and storage as of the first quarter deferred revenue for this category amounted to 770 million mainly due to Billings for Milestone payments and they said at the end of quarter one the total transaction price allocated to Performance obligations that were unsatisfied or partially unsatisfy divide was 209 million dollars of that amount Tesla expects to recognize just 12 million dollars in the next year and then the remaining over a period up to 25 years so yes there will be a deferred revenue trickling on to Tesla's financials now from the energy generation in storage just like we've now seen for years with Tesla's FSD I may share a bit more on this later in the week as I have time to work through it what we have here is Tesla offering a model snx customers that have unlimited free super charging to actually upgrade to a new model S and x and still keep six years of unlimited free supercharging but of course they have to give up the free unlimited supercharging on their old model S or X and this is only to upgrade to a new s or X not a 3 or Y if you choose not to trade in your old model SRX vehicle that has the unlimited free lifetime supercharging your base basically going to be asked to sign a form to give that up to take advantage of this new promotion this program could go away at any time but for now the scheduled end is June 30th this year this is essentially trading in lifetime free super charging on an older model S or X for a brand new model S or x with six years of unlimited free charging maybe Tesla is getting a taste for the profit it can generate with the supercharger Network because if you look at quarter one numbers for these services and other gross margin it was higher than any quarter last year now this segment is mainly driven by Tesla used vehicle sales but this is where the supercharging line Falls as well in case you missed it Friday Tesla was handed a sweeping win in what was one of the first trials regarding autopilot the jury awarded zero dollars in Damages and they confirmed that the airbag did not fail to perform safely and that Tesla did not intentionally fail to disclose facts like was alleged a professor at Georgetown law called this a huge win for Tesla and sometimes these early cases can give an indication of how later cases are likely to go there was a really nice new segment for TR in South Carolina talking about the police department buying two model wise and how over time they're going to be more cost effective and actually save the taxpayers money these cars are very quick to catch someone so when we need to catch the Violator we can catch them quicker in these cars we anticipate four to five years that extra that we paid up front will equal out and what we would have spent in fuel oil changes Etc Morgan Stanley put out a new Tesla stock note just saying that last Thursday they held a bear bull lunch with 36 attendees and they asked them by a show of hands who believe Tesla share price would outperform the stock market over the next six months not a single hand went up and a few of their thoughts the price cuts are not over yet and maybe more importantly Morgan Stanley pushing on this point that Tesla's price Cuts may actually Force Legacy Automotive to be more austere when it comes to their EV spending plans so if they do tighten their belts and spend less to transition to electric vehicles well I think that of course is only going to benefit Tesla so with a sentiment around Tesla and around interest rates and the economy where it's at we could have a pretty nice window of accumulating Tesla stock over the next six to 12 months you guys know I like to highlight people putting out useful content so Dan Corral well done with a chart of Tesla grid storage deployed by quarter and again just remember just because the deployments are hitting Tesla's financials does not mean the actual Revenue recognition has hit the financials yet as far as odd and Elon were saying about Tesla stock there have been several extended periods of flatness fall followed by rapid Rises to new plateaus which is essentially exactly what I was pointing out in November of last year with this tweet right here going back a decade there have really only been five distinct phases we waited and then in a year things ran up we waited longer and then in a year things ran up and now we're waiting and that whole Tesla is unprofitable and doomed without regulatory credits narrative should be dead because yes over the last 5.25 years regulatory credits only made up 2.7 percent of Tesla's overall revenue and only 11.8 percent of Tesla's gross profits over the same time period you can find me on Twitter at Dylan loomis22 hope you guys have a wonderful day please like the video if you did and a huge thank you to all of my patreon supporters
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