저자: DylanLumis · 외국인
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테슬라 중국 공급망 엑스포·중국 자유무역지대 수혜 언급. 사이버트럭 스테인리스 가공 난점과 생산량 기대 조정 필요 제기. 주간 중국 보험등록 대수는 전년 대비 둔화(Q3 동기 177천대 vs 현재 약 16.7천대), 모델3 급증 없음, 모델Y가 성장 견인. 테슬라 2024 PER 63배, 주가가 사상 최고치를 경신하려면 금리 하락·마진 바닥·EPS 상향 필요. 스웨덴 금속노조와 테슬라 단체협약 분쟁 조명. 중국 전기차 가격 인하·보조금, 포드 라이트닝 재고 적체, 미국 딜러들의 EV 규제 완화 요구 등 EV 수요 둔화 부각.
다듬은 글
welcome to electrified it's your host Dylan Lumis quick shout out to my newest patrons Justin M Richard etfm and Andrew H thank you for choosing to support the channel Tesla Asia shared some photos of their setup at the China international supply chain Expo but what's relevant here is why they're hosting this event for the first time in the first place China's Premier is still saying that China opposes protectionism and wants to strengthen Supply chains with all countries this in the midst of over the past year we've had the US the EU and other count countries saying they want to reduce their dependence on China the premier said we're willing to build closer production and Industrial Supply Chain Partnerships with all countries pretty clearly still looking for foreign investment for its domestic Market at least in part because the value of announced us and European Green Field investment into China dropped to less than $20 billion last year from a peak of 120 billion in 2018 something to watch in the months and years ahead will be how China decides to continually innovate on on its free trade zone policy that's now been in place for roughly a decade that's because at the heart of this policy has been opening up China to the wider world and yes Giga Shanghai has already been benefiting from these policies and don't forget the vice president of Tesla China Grace ta did say the pilot free trade zone in Shanghai helped Tesla in accomplishing the Tesla speed thus a silver lining of the Chinese economy slowing down could be that China expands its free trade zone policies Tesla then benefits allowing them to expand their export operations from Giga Shanghai thanks in part to these ftz incentives and policies in case you forgot last month Tesla signed a leasing contract with the Shanghai free trade zone group to open its biggest Sales and Service Center in China that should open mid 2024 for a few minutes last night Tesla increased the reservation price for the Cyber truck from $100 to $250 however it was quickly changed back to $100 those attending the event event are getting their tickets to anybody traveling safe travels and enjoy for the rest of us 1:00 p.m.
central Time check-in begins 1:45 check-in closes 2: p.m. central Time keynote and first deliveries there's no way that this event comes and goes without us learning about the pricing and more specs right the cybertruck guy on X put together this helpful map showing us all of the Tesla locations that currently have a cyber Tru available for viewing just to quickly touch on it we have the wall W Street Journal with some people familiar with the matter saying the cybertruck stainless steel which is being used for the truck's outer shell has proven challenging to bend and manipulate they said it's so hard and strong it can be difficult to flatten and the metal is produced in coils that resemble giant rolls of toilet paper then even when they're unrolled it has a tendency to spring back into its earlier curved form look there are some good reasons that stainless steel is not often used for automobiles it usually is less malleable and more expensive expensive than more traditional materials but like most things in life there are trade-offs it's corrosion resistant it doesn't need to be painted which is a huge cost savings and it's generally more durable in the past we've talked about how Tesla's cold rolled stainless steel is going to be too hard for a traditional stamping press meaning that Tesla is going to have to use laser cutting and then bend it after the fact so yeah there are good reasons that Elon gave all of those warnings about the cybertruck on the Q3 call just another reminder we all need to keep our production of volume expectations in check for the first 12 to 18 months as Tesla figures all of this out we got the weekly Tesla China insurance number it came in at 16.7 th000 if you compare that to the same week in quarter 3 that number was 177,000 thus through the first 8 weeks of quarter 3 we were at 89.2 th000 units and over the first 8 weeks of quarter 4 we sit at 87.
1,000 21,000 units short of that pace interestingly taking a look at the breakdown between the model 3 and Y for these metrics the model 3 has not seen that spike in volume that we were expecting so I will be watching this closely in December to see if the domestic delivery start rolling in and again maybe Tesla just had more of those model 3s allocated for export I am going to go back and fill in the rest of the data but I do know that going back to July of this year the model 3 weekly number was never above 5,000 units so the growth of this metric over the past 2 weeks is actually coming from the model Y and just a quick update on Tesla's actual Global deliveries vers its growth Target it set at the end of 2020 for quarter 4 of 2023 I just plugged in Troy Tes like's most recent estimate meaning as long as Tesla ends up anywhere in that realm for Q4 for the full year they're going to be ahead of that growth Target they set back at the end of 2020 Honestly though the real debate right now is on what happens in 2024 because another 50% would be a target of about 2.5 million deliveries but we'll talk more about that toward the beginning of next year if you could consume more news in less time without having to sort through any media bias would you I think most of us would say yes which is part of why I wanted to work with ground news the sponsor of this episode ground news was developed by a former NASA engineer and it tells us the political leaning of every Source reporting on a topic in this case we have 60% of the sources leaning left you can also see the factuality of all of the sources as well as the ownership for this article on starlink and Israel you can see that 11% of the sources are coming from the Russian government it also summarizes the key takeaways from all of the aggregated sources and you can quickly see those takeaways from the left Center and right leaning articles if you want to Steelman your arguments you can check the blind spot feature where you can quickly see what stories are being disproportionately reported on ground news shows you all of the aggregated sources on each Topic in one place place with plenty of other useful information you can create your own feed on any topic save stories and yes of course I have my Tesla and Elon feed ground news has helped me consume information faster and more accurately so if you agree with me that this is probably a mission worth supporting you can head to ground.
news/ electrified this Black Friday promotion gets you 40% off ground news but heads up it does expire November 30th the link is in the description below last night Tesla China raised the price of the long range model y by about $280 this was the third time in as many weeks simultaneously though they're offering a limited time Insurance subsidy of 8,000 Yuan or roughly $1,100 according to the weekly insurance data Tesla's strategy here of encouraging people to get off the sidelines may actually be working Gary black has said this may be an indication that Tesla's gross margins have already bottomed I'm not quite ready to go that far but it's certainly a possibility a quick check in on Tesla stock I just want to focus on wall Street's 2024 EPS estimate and of course the forward-looking price to earnings ratio for Tesla which right now is 63 then on the right if you look at the hypothetical growth rates for Tesla of 50% and 30% you can see what the peg ratios would be at the moment refresher a peg of one would mean a company is fairly valued under one has traditionally meant undervalued and over one can sometimes mean overvalued the way I see it for Tesla stock to really break out and set new all-time highs assuming that FSD is not solved in this time frame interest rates will probably have to come down margins will most likely have to have bottomed and the earnings per share estimates for Tesla of course need to go back up I rarely touch on this kind of thing because personally I don't care what happens with Tesla stock in 2024 and that's predominantly what Wall Street is focused on and obviously what these numbers are focused on too I'm more concerned about what Tesla is doing between 2020 27 and 2030 and a lot of that just isn't factored into how Wall Street operates and the truth is they'll all say that they consider Tesla's business in 2030 and they discount those cash flows back to the present the problem is their ability to actually forecast what Tesla will be doing in 20127 to 2030 is not great but it's been a while and I know some of you are more focused on the shorter term you know next 6 to 12 months for Tesla stock so from a Wall Street perspective through their lens Tesla stock is not super cheap like some people may think how about this one for hypocrisy we have the EF Metals Union lawyer bringing to light in a recent interview with car up saying that he himself bought a Tesla back in 2019 and that right now the only Private Car his family owns is a model y That's technically owned by his wife and how about this statement he said EF matal had no conflict with Tesla when he bought the model S just over four years ago he also said he did not know at the time that Tesla lacked a Collective Agreement the problem with that statement of course is that EF matal has been negotiating and bargaining with Tesla about this Collective Agreement now for 5 years he then deflected saying we don't mind people buying Tesla cars the problem is Tesla's workshops then he said he only learned that Tesla lacked a Collective Agreement at the end of last year so either he's lying or he's not that great at his job this is the EF metall's union lawyer maybe he's not the leader of his own household but they said his wife bought a model y at the end of March this year after he knew about Tesla lacking a Collective Agreement if it wasn't obvious already this whole Swedish situation with Tesla is really just about EF metal trying to hold on desperately to its power if you don't believe me the EF Metal's Union Chief just said if you look at this in a long-term perspective it could be a threat to the Swedish model it's really important for us adding if Tesla shows it's possible to operate in Sweden without a Collective Agreement then other companies could be tempted to do the same the problem with this is as far as I can tell there's already about 10% of companies in Sweden that don't operate with a Collective Agreement it's not like Tesla is the only one in yesterday's video we talked about those two separate lawsuits that Tesla has filed one already got an answer in Tesla's favor the other one against postnord or the national mail service a Swedish court has ruled that Tesla could not gain immediate access to any registration plates held by postnord a separate article said right now postnord is refusing to hand over 28 license plates to Tesla so now postnord has 3 Days To answer why they believe those 28 plates should not be handed out on an interim basis if you want a deep dive on this topic farza just hosted two resident sweds Nicolas and Mimi who added some context to the situation this video will be below this should come as no surprise to anybody but GM just said they're going to scale back their spending on cruise I've been saying now for weeks I won't be surprised at all if Cruise becomes a shell of itself in the months ahead and they're most likely not going to come out and announce that but time after time it'll just be slow quiet cutbacks and delays until they're operating in a totally different fashion than we're used to and I know they said they plan to relaunch in one city but let's not forget they were losing a bunch of money in multiple cities so how long do they want to carry on losing hundreds of millions of doll Lotus just unveiled 450 Kow Chargers that are set for Europe early next year system won't be locked to only Lotus owners and you'll be able to charge up to four cars at once any EV can use them and they'll be particularly effective on cars with an 800 volt architecture they're saying this bad boy can add up to 88.5 Mi of range to the Lotus Electra in 5 minutes here we have some kind of funny comments from the Mazda CEO of Japan Masahiro Morrow after talking about slow growth in the ev% of market share over the last year he said of that 8% 57% was Tesla other EVS are not taking off inventory is piling up implying EVS other than Tesla are not taking off Mazda said they're going to take their cues from the market the customer has to drive it we've not put a goal on it we'll move as fast as the customer we never want to surprise them with new technology I think you know what I'm going to say here how can the customer decide when there are no EV options to choose from looking at Mazda's Eevee offering we have the mx30 that starts at$ 35 ,000 for 100 m of range that does 0 to 60 in over 8 seconds and while this vehicle was available it was sold exclusively in California so Mazda comes to Market with this ridiculous offering that may have been somewhat attractive back around 2010 not in 2023 and then they go on to complain about the EV demand not being there sometimes it really baffles me how some of these people are leading Global corporations I mean are they really expecting their customers to start knocking on their doors at Mazda saying hey guys we want some more EVS it should be obvious if they keep coming to the market with offerings like this the answer is going to be no according to IC cars the F-150 Lightning is now among the top 10 slowest selling used vehicles its inventory is lasting around 78.4 days on dealer Lots which is 1.6 times longer than the average used vehicle across the industry the average EV is currently taking 52.4 days to sell vers 49.2 days for the average used car a strong reminder of how fast things can change in the Auto industry just a few months ago the F-150 Lightning was being marked up all across the country fast forward to now where Ford is slowing production of the lightning and offering incentives to try to move the vehicle from The Driven Australia is now imposing a new standard to require all state funded installations of EV Chargers to work at least 98% of the time these rules will go into effect January of next year the 98% requirement is less than the 99% requirement in the UK but more than the 97% requirement in the United States Nissan is working on the third generation of the leaf for the European market this time around it'll be on a full EV platform this next gen Leaf will launch in Europe by the end of next year as for the styling they said it'll be based on this chill out concept they announced previously for the US market Nissan said it's ending Leaf production around the middle of the decade but they will replace it with a new EV sometime around 202 six from energy storage news higher interest rates and longer development timelines have driven a fall in the value of early stage projects in the United States Renewables as an asset class is definitely going through a rejig as interest rates increase the need for projects to have a really strong economic case along with higher interest rates and higher financing costs us project development timelines have also gone up due to longer grid connection cues as grid operators books have become flooded with interconnection requests a silver lining though the pricing for best project equipment is down 30% per kilowatt hour across batteries Transformers and inverters compared to last year so renewable generation costs are up largely in part due to interest rates but what can help drive that back down of course is battery storage today we have around 4,000 dealers calling on the Biden Administration to reconsider their proposed Federal Regulations when it comes to mandating electric vehicles in a letter they're urging Biden to slow down saying the reality however is electric vehicle demand today is not keeping up with the large influx of EVS arriving at our dealerships prompted by the current regulations bevs are stacking up on our Lots the dealerships want Biden to allow more time for better battery Tech to improve EVS to become more affordable and charging infrastructure to be built one thing I do agree with though they said this issue EVS is getting overly politicized and they argued hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles have been easier to sell to customers I've said it before I'll say it again it's not that consumers don't want electric vehicles it's that consumers don't want the non-tesla electric vehicles that these oems are bringing to the market and yes all of those oems signing KNX deals with Tesla is great but let's not forget that's not really going to impact the consumer in terms of actual availability on those Vehicles until 2025 and I really believe on one hand this is obviously not great for the eveve transition at scale as most of these oems are most likely going to continue to slow down their e production but at the same time this is going to be great for Tesla because they'll continue selling into a blue ocean of sorts as the other oems Focus Less on EVS Tesla will continue eating up market share you have to wonder how much of this push back is really just the dealers not wanting to spend the investment on EV infrastructure not wanting to spend the time and money on training its sales staff to learn about EVS to help educate consumers as they come in and ultimately they're not dumb it comes back around to service most dealers make most of their money on the service side and EVS just require much less maintenance and I'd guess a lot of the owners of these dealerships just want another 5 to 10 years ratting out their gravy train of ice profits not having to deal with the Eevee transition so then they can retire or sell their business to someone else and leave that problem for the next person to worry about don't forget check out ground news linked below take advantage of that Black Friday promotion still going on until the 30th 40% off hope you guys have a wonderful day you can find me on X linked below please like the video if you did and a huge thank you to all of my patreon supporters
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